BANKROLL FORUM

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  • KlairVoyant

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    Here is a link to my BankRoll tracker XL sheet for NBA. I am a newbie and have only played 6,232 games for an average buy-in of $1.31 and winnings of $2,600. However that is an ROI of 32% and I was wondering if you guys thought that win rate was at all sustainable in NBA. It would also be helpful if you guys posted your ROI’s so I had an Idea of how other players were preforming. Thanks in advance,

    KlairVoyant

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11WcsK1ufNMCUsG9ZBE4t0r8JqIZydmAR3LytB8OHNLo/edit?usp=sharing

  • KRD227

    @VChair23 said...

    This is an interesting discussion thank you for sharing your numbers. I have yet to use the bankroll tracker for my NBA season so far, once I do I will try and come back to this thread. But I calculated 32% ROI as 29.3/40 H2H unless I screwed up my math, and I do not think that is sustainable over the long run. If someone can do the math on how often you would have to cash in a double up or 50/50 for that ROI% it would be interesting.

    Right around 75% would be the win pct. to maintain a 32% ROI in cash games.

  • VChair23

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    @KRD227 said...

    Right around 75% would be the win pct. to maintain a 32% ROI in cash games.

    Thank you. Too high of a percentage in my opinion over the long run to maintain that ROI.

  • zpruitt3

    This is a somewhat sustainable ROI for specifically low stakes NBA. Obviously, as your BR grows you will move up the levels and your win rate will drop significantly.

    Same thing with venturing into different sports, you will ne better at some and worse at others.

    But for the most part, for $1-$2 NBA I think you can keep this up – but your total cash profit is capped by playing only low stakes NBA.

    Good work!

  • srolleDFS

    just looking at your sheet. it seems like most of the ROI is in gpps? i mainly play gpps, and it take a very very long time to figure out your ROI. lets say the average gpp you play has 10000 entries. if you played 20000 entries you would expect to win twice if you were dead average. but this could easily be zero or 4 times, depending on your luck.

    good job so far. i dont know if a 30% ROI is sustainable in NBA. but i kinda doubt many other people do either, just because of the convergence problem. (talking gpps only, h2h is converges to your “real” ROI alot faster). 30% would be very very very good though. my guess is that you would have to be much better at projecting players than what is currently available behind paywalls across the interwebs to get to that ROI.

    anywho, great job!.

  • CantCatchABreak99

    @L3gOnD said...

    I appreciate that, I sent you a DM. I am decently new to DFS as I started playing a few months ago and would love to look at my statistics. I actually have 20X my deposit for the NBA since the season began so I was curious at seeing the ROI that I currently am operating at. It seems a solid ROI can be achieved and 30% is awesome for you, congrats. Just from what I have read, as I researched a lot over the past few months, it seems that 12 to 20% is sustainable for really solid players but I could be wrong. Just relaying from the sources I have read.

    Not sure if anyone has mentioned it yet as I have not read the entire thread, but on DraftKings if you go to history there is now a “Download Entry History” link that will download a spreadsheet of all your entries and results. I believe this is fairly new as I have not seen it in the past.

  • nixhound

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    @zpruitt3 said...

    This is a somewhat sustainable ROI for specifically low stakes NBA. Obviously, as your BR grows you will move up the levels and your win rate will drop significantly.

    Same thing with venturing into different sports, you will ne better at some and worse at others.

    But for the most part, for $1-$2 NBA I think you can keep this up – but your total cash profit is capped by playing only low stakes NBA.

    Good work!

    I agree that at lower stakes it is possible that a higher 30%+ ROI can be sustained and that the ROI will diminish in the higher stakes/ larger bankroll. It becomes an issue of game selection as well. If you have a gigantic bankroll you have to find a way to allocate your money (tougher competition, larger stakes, forced to play in games of various sizes and buy-in levels). At a certain point I would imagine it becomes just as hard (or harder) to manage a large bankroll and allocate it across games than it is to generate your lineups. According to this article written on Nov 23rd about Max, it states: “He says he’s making a 10 to 15 percent return on what he puts in play, even with millions more people competing with him lately, and despite the scrutiny” . That’s with about $100k/day in play. I would imagine he plays a lot of the top DFS players each day as well which would drive down his overall ROI.

    Here is the link to the story referenced: http://www.wbur.org/2015/11/23/dfs-power-player-profile

  • KlairVoyant

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    Here is an update on my NBA DFS journey,

    My gut still tells me that a 30% roi is not sustainable but my data seems to be showing me something different. My sample size is getting closer to my goal of 10,000 over all games played before start to even consider what my theoretical win or “EV” maybe. This is my NBA history. I have played about 2/3rds of an NBA DFS season in my life. If you guys are wondering how many days or slates I’v played maybe that will give you an idea….

    Thanks for reading and commenting,
    KlairVoyant

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hcq9PzAfg_LeMb3Pr7EqJTbSbPVVJwJ3gg_BwUcpgVk/edit?usp=sharing

  • KRD227

    Your biggest factor is GPPs…they are up and down by nature. For example I’ve played about 14,700 NBA contests (95% of which are cash games, 5% GPPs) since February of 2014. My ROI is damn near 100% but that is because I won 12k in one night in GPPs. Take that one 12k day away and my ROI is about 29%. A hot streak or cold streak in GPPs is going to cause a high variance in ROI. So yes it is possible but any given point in the season it may not be 30%. After a cold streak it may be 20%, after a hot streak or big win it could climb to 40% or higher if you hit real big…its just not really a constant is what I’m getting at. So, yes, it is possible and you seem to be doing well so far.

    Edit: And as some others mentioned above I imagine it would be harder to maintain in the high dollar entries. I do mostly $1-$5 high volume cash games. I’m sure my ROI would be lower if I decided to “move up” in contest entry fees.

  • deebarizo

    @KlairVoyant said...

    I have played about 2/3rds of an NBA DFS season in my life.

    2/3rds of an NBA season is still a tiny sample size.

    That’s only 120 unique slates.

    Would you make any strong ROI conclusions from 120 MTTs or SnGs?

    I thought 100 unique slates was a good starting point but after reading about sample size from the poker point of view, I think I’m way off.

    The poker players throw out numbers like 30,000 MTTs (which are like large field GPPs to me) and 1000 SnGs (which are like cash games to me) before making strong conclusions about ROI. And even then, there is a standard deviation. For example, with 1000 SnGs, your standard deviation is around 5%. So, a 20% ROI could actually be 15% or 25%.

    I only play large field GPPs so I will die before I hit a reasonable sample size. 30,000 GPPs is 166 NBA seasons lol.

  • KlairVoyant

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    Here is an update on my performance to date

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YDW9s9Nt_yNEMbw2WTXcbsRJSnQ2Cnz0c8wUIVyDpm0/edit?usp=sharing

    I am obv running a little hot right now

  • KlairVoyant

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    I’m not going to share where I’m at now but I am willing to show where I was after after betting my first $100,000. I reached this point near the end of last NBA season after starting off with a bankroll of $300 at the start of that NBA season. Attached is a breakdown of my play by different game types and second is a graph of this data.

    GL everyone,

    KV

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QftVVojvJdntw6dTViujBJStlIcZZ0YOKyl2_dxlf7I/edit#gid=0

    https://docs.google.com/document/d/1swzqV7Ub2Russr1n_-A5YLVWE6VPh2AWzG-IbHbBixY/edit

  • Cpjttogether

    Good stuff klair voyant. your story is a inspiration that can help counter the negative ones.

  • Yahoo302

    Woah, plus freakin one

  • joerapjr

    Very cool to see your growth here KlairVoyant. Thanks for your candor in sharing!

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