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  • kiteman

    i play only DK and on their mobile app you can click something like odds and they show that 80% of people lose their money in the first month and 76% lose their money over 3 months….i think. i forget exactly. it just made me think the odds are really quite awful. i’m a poker player at heart and even the stupidest poker i’ve ever played averaged with my mediocre play i’m break even. my good poker included i’m definitely up. i don’t know what regular casino odds are, but 20-25% actually breaking even or making money seems incredibly low. i’m not sure if i have a question here, maybe why do people even play at these odds?

    i don’t mean to put DFS down, if you’ve got a little money to play $3 GPPs it’s fun and costs less than a beer at your local bar with potential big payouts. perhaps of the 80% losing money they are doing it just for fun and the small amount they spend is completely OK with them. but in general just talking about odds, they seem low. i feel like even something like blackjack you have at least a 20-25% chance of breaking even or better.

  • KindGuy

    You answered your own question. For some, it’s a job. For most, it’s entertainment.

  • kiteman

    for sure. maybe to expand my discussion on this, would you feel more comfortable putting $20 down on a blackjack table or on a GPP? and regardless of your choice, why? maybe some people feel they have more control on the GPP, maybe some people like the quick response of a blackjack hand, etc. again, just thinking about the odds of dfs vs something like blackjack, they don’t seem that different…

  • DSofM

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    Long term it’s about the same for Poker and it’s certainly even longer odds for Blackjack unless you master basic strategy and card counting. If you sat at a live table you might see 1-2 pros, 3-4 marginal players and some big donators. Yeah everybody wins sometimes but I’d say 20% is actually on the high end for % of poker players that are profitable long term.

  • bigez952

    Many people play DFS for what they can afford to lose and do it as entertainment to make watching the games more interesting. Look at how terrible the odds are at casinos for things like slot machines yet on a Friday and Saturday night they are packed. Not everyone cares about making money long term of things like the rake which is the #1 factor that drives down the % of profitable players. I would actually assume a higher % of players don’t care about profitability that do since when the sites put out absolutely terrible top heavy tournaments with massive rake they still fill.

  • rausch180

    It’s a completely different form of entertainment. Blackjack and poker you have to make decisions for as long as you’re playing, often having to go to a place to play as well. DFS you may have planned to watch sports anyway and can take as long or little as you want to make a lineup. Once the games start you can sit back and follow along. The upside of winning a big DFS GPP for $20 might be more exciting than grinding $20 at blackjack. Only a large poker tournament has the same upside and that would take more than 1 day if it’s to be a big 1st place from $20.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    Yes, we all are going to lose in the long run. People already realize that. So, what’s your point?

  • mambaland

    it is much like poker in that a very low percent win over time..you have high rake and high taxes so you have to figure a way around both..good luck with that

    You can almost good profits in dfs or how many win in dfs etc etc or legalsports report etc etc they all show the difficulties players face..the common falacy is that people who play a lot are PRO players or Pro players (not sure how to define) make money

  • zigger77

    • Ranked #93

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    @mambaland said...

    sorry double posted so edited this one…living in canada may help LOL

    Living in Canada does help with no true law or rules about dfs in general. They haven’t said it taxable/non taxable so you kinda just go with the flow.

  • BigA

    The entertainment part is gone. No such thing unless you like losing money. For me that is. Even if you hit the nuts, 100 others are hitting even better and its not even good enough to min cash anymore. DFS was a somewhat profitable up until a few years ago. Everyone can put there reasons why.

  • Messiah717

    For a lot of people it just boils down to entertainment. It’s too the point that a really good score doesn’t do much for you anymore.

  • DSofM

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    @BigA said...

    The entertainment part is gone. No such thing unless you like losing money. For me that is. Even if you hit the nuts, 100 others are hitting even better and its not even good enough to min cash anymore. DFS was a somewhat profitable up until a few years ago. Everyone can put there reasons why.

    So you’re basically like a Sam Farha type? You were good when nobody was good and now that the game has gotten harder it’s not profitable anymore? Maybe it’s just you.

  • BigA

    @JoeFlacco05 said...

    So you’re basically like a Sam Farha type? You were good when nobody was good and now that the game has gotten harder it’s not profitable anymore? Maybe it’s just you.

    I really dont feel like paying for tools and picks to keep up with the jonesses. Pretty sure 90% of the ones that dont subscribe to something will agree.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    A couple thoughts from a casual amateur player who has put a couple bucks on DFS contests per night over the past 2 years —- I’m no expert and do about 30 mins of research per day, but I have a net profit of ~$1000 so far and get a LOT of enjoyment out of it:

    1) The stated odds of DFS don’t account for the seemingly large contingent of truly awful lineups in each large GPP (either amateurs who don’t care enough to avoid starting injured players, etc or contrarian dart throws by multi-entry pros)

    2) I find the $ spent on DFS way more enjoyable than other forms of gambling because it gives me a reason to watch and root for sports (such as MLB, NBA) that I otherwise wouldn’t care about. I.e. my $1-3 per night gives me several hours of entertainment, which is a bargain.

  • joephoto

    I’m on vacation in Florida. In one week I’ve been to
    Dania Jai Alai and Casino- twice
    Gulfstream Horse track and Casino- three times
    Hard Rock Casino
    and played DFS every day

    But I DO NOT have a problem !

  • jimmyquinella

    • Blogger of the Month

    @joephoto said...

    I’m on vacation in Florida. In one week I’ve been to
    Dania Jai Alai and Casino- twice
    Gulfstream Horse track and Casino- three times
    Hard Rock Casino
    and played DFS every day

    But I DO NOT have a problem !

    lol

    Like a wise old gambler (not Kenny Rogers) once told me..

    “You never see winners in Gamblers Anonymous…hence the problem isn’t the gambling,so change it to Losers Anonymous and call it a day.”

  • txdave41

    @tgs4 said...

    A couple thoughts from a casual amateur player who has put a couple bucks on DFS contests per night over the past 2 years —- I’m no expert and do about 30 mins of research per day, but I have a net profit of ~$1000 so far and get a LOT of enjoyment out of it:

    1) The stated odds of DFS don’t account for the seemingly large contingent of truly awful lineups in each large GPP (either amateurs who don’t care enough to avoid starting injured players, etc or contrarian dart throws by multi-entry pros)

    2) I find the $ spent on DFS way more enjoyable than other forms of gambling because it gives me a reason to watch and root for sports (such as MLB, NBA) that I otherwise wouldn’t care about. I.e. my $1-3 per night gives me several hours of entertainment, which is a bargain.

    When you lose consistently like me, the entertainment argument is just not there. For me, it actually makes watching the games more infuriating because it never fails ,I will tune in and see my guy get hurt and that just makes me want to throw my remote at the tv after it happens so often to me. Or my guy goes off for major points, I get excited, check my fanduel score and see that it still didn’t make a damn bit of difference. Now you need every fucking player to have exceptional nights just to cash. I had Devin Booker and Davis both put up massive scores in a small field GPP and still couldn’t cash with a 310 score.

    DFS just makes me mad and that’s not fun for me anymore.

  • BigA

    @txdave41 said...

    When you lose consistently like me, the entertainment argument is just not there. For me, it actually makes watching the games more infuriating because it never fails ,I will tune in and see my guy get hurt and that just makes me want to throw my remote at the tv after it happens so often to me. Or my guy goes off for major points, I get excited, check my fanduel score and see that it still didn’t make a damn bit of difference. Now you never every fucking player to have exceptional nights just to cash. I had Devin Booker and Davis both put up massive scores in a small field GPP and still couldn’t cash with a 310 score.

    DFS just makes me mad and that’s not fun for me anymore.

    Pretty much it.. nailed it.

  • Nookx

    The rake is way too high. Rake is the biggest problem.

  • joonyari22

    • Blogger of the Month

    i may be in the minority here, but roster construction is where i derive the most entertainment from in DFS – sweating the games is alright but also brings with it lots of tilt. Reacting to news and figuring out my best solution to the puzzle as the minutes tick down to lock is what i like the most – so yea i’m probably a psycho :)

  • Lipscore22

    @joonyari22 said...

    i may be in the minority here, but roster construction is where i derive the most entertainment from in DFS – sweating the games is alright but also brings with it lots of tilt. Reacting to news and figuring out my best solution to the puzzle as the minutes tick down to lock is what i like the most – so yea i’m probably a psycho :)

    Roster construction is what DFS is all about. I get way more enjoyment out of the pregame then I do watching the money line.

  • Lipscore22

    @txdave41 said...

    When you lose consistently like me, the entertainment argument is just not there. For me, it actually makes watching the games more infuriating because it never fails ,I will tune in and see my guy get hurt and that just makes me want to throw my remote at the tv after it happens so often to me. Or my guy goes off for major points, I get excited, check my fanduel score and see that it still didn’t make a damn bit of difference. Now you need every fucking player to have exceptional nights just to cash. I had Devin Booker and Davis both put up massive scores in a small field GPP and still couldn’t cash with a 310 score.

    DFS just makes me mad and that’s not fun for me anymore.

    Then why are you here posting about it? why would you still come to rotogrinders.com?

  • txdave41

    @Lipscore22 said...

    Then why are you here posting about it? why would you still come to rotogrinders.com?

    I still throw a buck or two at it every now and then. Plus I’ll really interested in seeing how the industry evolves and if it will eventually collapse from its own greed. This year will only mean higher rake, less payouts and more informed competition.

  • shawnzhan

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    @kiteman said...

    i don’t know what regular casino odds are, but 20-25% actually breaking even or making money seems incredibly low

    This isn’t a fair comparison when you consider these are 30 day and 90 day odds for draftkings. If you went to the casino and played perfect blackjack for an hour or two every day for 3 months, I’d estimate you would have a 80+% chance of being a net loser – and if you played a lower odds game like roulette it might be 99%+.

  • depalma13

    So you play in games that have 10x – 30x more entries than the World Series of Poker Main Event with a far worse payout structure, a steeper rake and in these contests the Phil Ivies are allowed to enter anywhere from 20 to 150 times, yet you think you should cash every time?

  • ItzJamesFTW

    @BigA said...

    I really dont feel like paying for tools and picks to keep up with the jonesses. Pretty sure 90% of the ones that dont subscribe to something will agree.

    I don’t understand this angle. Why do you think you need to pay for tools to get optimal plays? If you are doing this for serious money, you likely are paying attention nightly. If you are paying attention nightly you know injury, rotations, players, etc. Before today’s slate is over, you should already know the optimal plays for tomorrow before the slate is even released. THAT is the difference between the people who lose nightly and the ones who do this for a job, they are putting in the time and effort.

    The people who lose and get mad are the ones who think they can get rich quick and when they don’t get discouraged and blame other factors besides themselves. A lot will counter that with “I just don’t have the time though”, okay, that’s fine, but just know that right there puts you at the disadvantage.

    Full time DFS players win because they are doing it full time. We over-complicate this topic so much sometimes.

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