PGA FORUM

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  • whodat2

    When: Nov 14-17

    Where: Playa Del Carmen, Mexico

    Course: El Camaleon GC | A Par 71 playing at 7039 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Matt Kuchar at -22 in “Caddygate”

    Last Year’s Cut: -4

    No Shot-tracker

    Coverage: Golf Channel

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BrianVT

    @BIF said...

    I was just going to post that all you Data Scrapers are going to be happy

    Yep, their servers are going to be running hot. I’ll probably write something tomorrow to start scraping for me. Can’t get it all manually. This screws a lot of the guys selling this stuff.

  • BIF

    @BrianVT said...

    This screws a lot of the guys selling this stuff.

    Hopefully ! Nothing would make me happier than to see some of these “stat re-packagers” disappear

  • BrianVT

    @BIF said...

    Hopefully ! Nothing would make me happier than to see some of these “stat re-packagers” disappear

    It’s a strange industry. Kind of reminds me of the guys teaching seminars on how to flip homes. Can’t they just make the money flipping the homes?

  • DeadBenjamin

    @BrianVT said...

    Question for you data science guys. I’m finally building my own database by painstakingly copy/pasting data from the PGATour Media Guide site. Working in Excel for now, but will eventually start importing and playing with it in Python. Anyhow, for the dependent variable, I think I’m going to use the total strokes for the tournament, as opposed to finishing position. Ideally, I’d like to use DK points, but I would need to manually calculate that (pars, bogies, birdies, etc.) as historical DK point data isn’t available. My question on total strokes is, what’s the best way to handle missed cuts? I don’t really want to ignore them all together, and I don’t want to make them all the same, so for right now, I’m just multiplying them by 2, giving an indication of what the golfer may have scored if he played all 4 rounds. Of course, in some cases, it actually means that the missed cuts end-up with a better score than some of the made cuts, since some made cuts go on to shoot terrible rounds on Sat/Sun. But, even with that, it still seems like a good indication of their performance at a course. Any other suggestions on how to handle missed cuts?

    Can you use the average strokes gained/lost per round for the tournament?

    (that’s what I have in the “Form Sheets” that I’ve been posting recently)

    Kind of puts everyone on the same level regardless of rounds played. Still have cut-makers ending up with worse numbers in some instances, but nothing artificial about it.

  • BrianVT

    @DeadBenjamin said...

    Can you use the average strokes gained/lost per round for the tournament?

    Yea, I was talking about the finishing result (the output, the final score, the dependent variable in a predictive model). I guess you could potentially add all of the SG together to get there, but might be ending up with the same thing again. I just tend to think of those more as part of the input variables, although my approach is to use SG (and a lot of other stats) from previous tournaments; not the tournament I’m looking for a result in. But, yea, the total avg. SG is similar to the finishing result. That could work.

  • BrianVT

    Just realized the PGA site only includes the cut-makers for each tournament. Kinda makes it hard to gauge form of all golfers.

  • ilayup

    Not sure how to get around the problems with Strokes gained, from their selective availability to other things. These metrics are missing from the Masters, the Open, selected courses at multi-course tourneys like Pebble and the Desert Classic, and almost all events outside of continental US. If they’re providing tournament averages per player without missed cut folks, that’s another issue as the SG metrics are all re-indexed against the whole field for each round (including those players who missed the cut for rounds 1 and 2). And finally there’s the fact that they’re re-indexed against different fields. Makes comparing Strokes gained in say the Barbasol a bit difficult to compare apples to apples with Strokes Gained in the Players. Maybe we’ll have full coverage in a few years and they’ll come up with an adjusted view to account for fields (something that’s better than now but not as convoluted as what data golf tries to do).

  • BIF

    Still lots of room in the $2 NFL Happy-er Meal

    NFL Sun 12PM CST – $2 entry – 31/50 spots filled ***

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/draftteam/80156881

  • BrianVT

    @ilayup said...

    Not sure how to get around the problems with Strokes gained, from their selective availability to other things.

    You’re right about the peculiarities of SG, but it’s not just the SG stats that they’ve narrowed down to only cut-makers. If you look a like Prox or GIR for a tournament, they’re also only showing the cut-makers for those. I would like to collect all of that as well. I’d like to know what part of someone’s game contributed to them missing the cut, rather than just deleting them all together, or using some kind of smoothing process to include them.

    Looks like the media site also only shows the cut-makers for tournament-specific data. I think I’ll just have to go back to using YTD information up to the tournament, but now I’m wondering if that data is bogus also. For instance, if you look at someone’s average Proximity for all of 2018, does this mean it’s only showing the average for the events he made cuts in? Pretty much all crap data at that point. But, if it does include all of his missed cuts, then why not show that for the individual tournaments as well? Seems like we need an answer from PGA on that. If the YTD doesn’t include missed-cuts, then even the little graphics and stuff that we’re shown on TV broadcasts probably aren’t correct either.

  • BrianVT

    I think I may have just answered my own question. If you look at YTD through just the Greenbrier, it shows everyone, and the missed cut guys only show 2 rounds. Still begs the question why they can’t include those in the tournament-specific data.

    Edit: ….and SG stats also show through 2 rounds of the Greenbrier, so they ignore the issue of full field comparison in that equation.

  • titanhawks

    Rickie Fowler WD’s from Mayakoba due to an infection he got while on his honeymoon

  • shadowchap1978

    Decisions Decisions… my last spot is going for Harris English or Brandon Wu on Yahoo… sad state of affairs lol

  • BIF

    What is with these shitty DK contests ?

    A 1590 person $44 entry (47 entry max) ? That sounds more like a 2nd or 3rd generation contest the first offering. It’s going to fill early with 20 guys max entering (there goes 1000 entries) and a bunch of us with 1-3 entries each.

  • lfn1992

    More data to scrape means more data for others to misinterpret

  • titanhawks

    Lahiri WD puts Sebastian Cappelen in whoever that is

    Huh WD puts Tom Hoge in

  • upgradetoquestionable

    Dk taking a long time to get the pricing out. They had two weeks on this, cmon!

  • BIF

    @upgradetoquestionable said...

    Dk taking a long time to get the pricing out. They had two weeks on this, cmon!

    Late WDs not helping things as they have been good about having a salary for everyone.

  • Jonas137

    Pricing is OUT

  • mgravity

    Any information on Brian Harman? He was putting up some points starting the fall swing and than craps out at Houston with a 72, 76 ?

  • mgravity

    Nerdbank Forum anyone? I would start it but do not know how?

  • titanhawks

    DK has Sullivan listed as OUT but Korhonen and Poulter are in

  • titanhawks

    Monday Qualifiers

    Ben Silverman 64
    Jimmy Stanger 66

    Efron Serna and Tyler McCumber survived a three for two over Braden Thornberry who lost in playoff

    Apparently there was some “intense dispute” going on there

  • ilayup

    I don’t know about Harman. For some reason his ball striking fell off a cliff in mid-fall. 3rd round Shriners was negative 3 tee to green and his only two rounds at Houston were a combined negative 4 strokes gained tee to green. At Mayakoba, it looks like he always shoots 1-2 strokes below his average on this course (I mean 1-2 strokes worse… which would be higher…. cause it’s golf).

  • byo34

    Andrew Landry has bad course history and bad recent form.. yet at 6300 I will take a shot on him. Seems to fit the mold here.. short and accurate hitter with a good approach game.

    Also like Dahmen and Long for under 7k.

  • mgravity

    @ilayup said...

    I don’t know about Harman. For some reason his ball striking fell off a cliff in mid-fall. 3rd round Shriners was negative 3 tee to green and his only two rounds at Houston were a combined negative 4 strokes gained tee to green. At Mayakoba, it looks like he always shoots 1-2 strokes below his average on this course (I mean 1-2 strokes worse… which would be higher…. cause it’s golf).

    Thanks for the info no Harman for me…Hope he wins it !?

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