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  • whodat2

    When: Nov 14-17

    Where: Playa Del Carmen, Mexico

    Course: El Camaleon GC | A Par 71 playing at 7039 yards

    Last Year’s Winner: Matt Kuchar at -22 in “Caddygate”

    Last Year’s Cut: -4

    No Shot-tracker

    Coverage: Golf Channel

    Google Doc

    RG Golf Forum League

    Happy Meal Standings

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – Golf strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • ecb34

    @BrianVT said...

    I think I’m going to use the total strokes for the tournament, as opposed to finishing position. Ideally, I’d like to use DK points, but I would need to manually calculate that (pars, bogies, birdies, etc.) as historical DK point data isn’t available.

    Forgive my ignorance and I am by no means a statistician, but how is this useful? If you had the DK score, its comprised of the underlying scoring metrics as you mentioned (pars, bogeys, birdies, etc). Breaking this down, wouldn’t one simply conclude that basically the best finishers for that week have the best scoring metrics that week? Is that just one input? I’m trying to learn, but just wondering why you need a historical database to know that DK score is highly correlated with birdies.

  • BrianVT

    @ecb34 said...

    Forgive my ignorance and I am by no means a statistician, but how is this useful? If you had the DK score, its comprised of the underlying scoring metrics as you mentioned (pars, bogeys, birdies, etc). Breaking this down, wouldn’t one simply conclude that basically the best finishers for that week have the best scoring metrics that week? Is that just one input? I’m trying to learn, but just wondering why you need a historical database to know that DK score is highly correlated with birdies.

    Pull down the DK .cvs this week after the final round. Add in the finishing positions (1, T2, T3, etc.) and compare finishing position to their DK points rank. You’ll find that a lot of golfers put up different DK point scores than their total strokes or finishing position might indicate. Just think of one guy scoring a birdie and then a bogie, and his playing partner scoring two pars. They’re both now tied for day, but not in DK points. Therefore, a predictive model for our purposes (winning a DK contest) would be better off using DK points, rather than strokes/finishing position as the output/predicted variable.

    Not sure if that answers your question. The purpose of my historical database isn’t to do any of the things that you mentioned.

  • TrustinthePlan

    I know its only Tuesday morning, but I don’t see a happy meal in the DK group. Just thought I would give an FYI :).

    Anyways, glad we have a tournament on this side of the world again so we can follow along while working :P

  • BIF

    @TrustinthePlan said...

    I know its only Tuesday morning, but I don’t see a happy meal in the DK group. Just thought I would give an FYI :).

    Anyways, glad we have a tournament on this side of the world again so we can follow along while working :P

    I’m assuming Tim will set it up but if we don’t have one by 4pm CT – I’ll set it up and send it out.

    I don’t want to do it and then have Tim do it before reading this and we have 2 on the go (and risk one or both not filling).

  • kps3205s

    FWIW….

    Last year El Camaleon played to a 69.25 average which was 1.75 shots under par as it ranked the 39th hardest course on the PGA Tour.

    The previous 2 years before that it played to a 70.32 average and an average of 70.02, both years in windy conditions.

    In looking at the 27 players that have finished 5th or better in the last 5 Mayakoba’s, only 8 players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit and on 6 players finished in the top-ten in driving distance.

    To go further with these 27 players….

    11 of them were in the top-ten of greens hit.

    12 of the players finished in the top-ten in putts per round

    They averaged playing the par 3s in -4, the par 4s in -6 and the par 5s in -8 for the week.

    Matt Kuchar in his win last year….

    Had one 3-putts and was T-39th in one-putts

    Kuchar was -10 on the par 4s, (he was best in the field) and he was also best in the field on the par 5s at -8.

    Kuchar made 26 birdies which was best in the field.

  • timusbr

    @TrustinthePlan said...

    I know its only Tuesday morning, but I don’t see a happy meal in the DK group. Just thought I would give an FYI :).

    Anyways, glad we have a tournament on this side of the world again so we can follow along while working :P

    Apologize, Feels like first day back from vacation, where yesterday was to be the first day back but needed a break from life before work started.

    Happy Meal Mayakoba is up

  • mattspot10

    Isn’t the real question “Who’s caddying for Kuchar this week?”

    Find out who “El Tucan” is caddying for this week and you’ve found your winner!

  • Steverino01

    Just checked the weather for Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Not looking good.

    Today 90% chance of heavy thunderstorms
    Wed 80% chance of thunderstorms
    Thu 80% chance of thunderstorms
    Fri 90% chance of thunderstorms.

    Their greens are already soft and slow without all the rain. Monday finish anyone?

  • timusbr

    @Steverino01 said...

    Just checked the weather for Playa del Carmen, Mexico. Not looking good.

    Today 90% chance of heavy thunderstorms
    Wed 80% chance of thunderstorms
    Thu 80% chance of thunderstorms
    Fri 90% chance of thunderstorms.

    Their greens are already soft and slow without all the rain. Monday finish anyone?

    Holy Schnikies golf gods,

    this looks pretty bad. I wonder if playing the weather advantages will work?
    As is playing the minimum and playing guys who start strong in a tournament because this is likely to get rained out or shortened.

    I am thinking bet the minimum and use my resort guys LU.

  • MrBreeze

    https://www.instagram.com/nmanci13/

    can someone w Instagram see if this is our contest wrecker?

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    @MrBreeze said...

    https://www.instagram.com/nmanci13/

    can someone w Instagram see if this is our contest wrecker?

    There’s not much there, hasn’t posted anything.

  • BIF

    @timusbr said...

    Holy Schnikies golf gods,

    this looks pretty bad. I wonder if playing the weather advantages will work?
    As is playing the minimum and playing guys who start strong in a tournament because this is likely to get rained out or shortened.

    I am thinking bet the minimum and use my resort guys LU.

    I would not worry about the weather – course dries super fast, it’s basically ON the beach with many feet of sand-base so other than a 1-2 hour delay for the worst part of the storm each day, I think we get it all in and likely on time. Friday may spill into Saturday but they have plenty of daylight post-cut on Sat/Sun with only 65 & ties playing on.

    Any adjustments to lineup construction at this point would be foolish unless you know that one side of the draw is getting 20+ mph winds as this course is very exposed to wind and plays tough in it with all the hazards/tight landing areas.

  • BIF

    Also I’m now seeing on Weather Channel that rain forecast is

    Thur 90% Showers
    Fri 80% Thunderstorm
    Sat 40% Showers
    Sun 20% Showers

    Pretty playable with highs in Mid-80’s and it will feel like 90 with the humidity.

    Winds look consistent for Thur-Fri and increase a bit for Saturday then are down again for Sunday

  • Steverino01

    I’ll be paying closer attention to the weather on Wed night when you can look at the hourly forecast for the next 48 hours.

    This is suppose to be a course for the veterans, but my initial build sure does have a lot young guns.

  • Dunzor

    @Steverino01 said...

    I’ll be paying closer attention to the weather on Wed night when you can look at the hourly forecast for the next 48 hours.

    This is suppose to be a course for the veterans, but my initial build sure does have a lot young guns.

    I don’t think it is a veteran vs. young guy thing so much as an accurate short hitter vs. bomb and gauge. More of the seasoned pros are not gonna be as big on distance but many of them know how to keep it in play better and set themselves up to attack a lot of pins, and some of the young guys want to pull driver more often when this is really a course you need to plot your way around. It’ll be a birdie fest for those that keep it in play but there are a few big numbers lurking as well if you don’t pay attention

  • kps3205s

    So Rickie Fowler was in South Africa for his honeymoon when he got his bacterial infection. Interesting statement I read in the article about Rickie….

    “As of now, Fowler is supposed to play the Hero World Challenge but rumor has it that Rickie could be Tiger’s first pick for the Presidents Cup team if Brooks Koepka’s knee isn’t up to par for the trip.”

  • tristanwolf

    6100 tyler mccumber? makes cuts was really good on mackenzie and korn ferry tours.

  • BIF

    @tristanwolf said...

    6100 tyler mccumber? makes cuts was really good on mackenzie and korn ferry tours.

    I’m a big McCumber fan and was there when he won a Mackenzie tour event that I was at but I don’t love the fit here for him – I’ve played him every event plus the Dominican event a year or two ago.

    For me this week, he is a bit too wild off the tee and will rarely ever have a bogey free round; this place is also pretty penal if you start missing fairways and creeping into hazards or tree lines.

  • lfn1992

  • BrianVT

    @lfn1992 said...

    Is he golfing this week?

  • BIF

    @BrianVT said...

    Is he golfing this week?

    lfn must have thought he was on the puppet forum 🙄

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    NManci13 responded in the league chat. He said he didn’t read the contest so maybe all is well again…

  • MrBreeze

    @hautalak said...

    NManci13 responded in the league chat. He said he didn’t read the contest so maybe all is well again…

    awesome. Where is this league chat? On DK?

  • hautalak

    • x2

      2021 Blogger of the Month

    I’ve only been able to access it through the app. But you go to the “league” page and there’s a little comment bubble you can write in.

  • Dunzor

    @MrBreeze said...

    awesome. Where is this league chat? On DK?

    Ya, within the league itself there is a couple little tabs, one has like a leaderboard, and one is the league chat.

    I think I’ve got the lineups put together and I’m going 3 max this week since I’ve been real busy and didn’t have a ton of research time this week. Also gonna play a bit on FD for the first time in forever since you guys won me the Best New Blog prize from RG with your support of the blog! The award is sponsored by FD so they deposited $50 for me over there! I’m excited to get the real MME quest going in January.

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