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  • SoFLo21

    Grinders,

    I was hoping somebody could help me out here.

    Ive been playing DFS for close to a year now. In full disclosure, I am well aware of there being growing pains in the process of becoming good ant anything, but most recently I’ve found myself with loss after mind blowing loss. I have done my fair share plus of research and I am well in understanding of the “basic strategy” of DFS if you will. I am all over the vegas odds, I am stalking the starting line-ups, and have the app to tell me when they change. I pay close attention to match ups and trends, but still can’t crack the code that is DFS.

    Let me give an example:

    Last Night I used the following line up:

    Westbrook
    Wade
    Deng
    Young
    Whiteside
    McCallum
    Montejunas
    Canter

    I can give a detailed explanation for every player in the line up as to why I picked them and how it matched my research. However, The line up that won the tournament was as follows:

    Westbrook
    Harden
    Allen
    Randle
    Jefferson
    Lin
    Randolph
    Waiters

    I am so MIND BOGGLED I can’t even explain. Can one of you “experts” explain how Al Jefferson vs Miami, Jeremy Lin Vs Miami off the bench, and Dion Waiters off the bench all make sense to start? I can’t figure it out.

  • liwvu13

    Im not an expert but the Hornets were playing Brooklyn last night.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    Well for one the Hornets guys were playing the Nets, not Miami – so that was a plus matchup.

    Lin – Had a huge game the night before, so he figured to be popular. As noted, it was a plus matchup and you may have had a potential blowout as a projection which could have added value there.

    Jefferson — Again, big plus matchup. His production and minutes have been up of late and it hasn’t really been reflected in his price. Williams was also out, so there was potential for a few more minutes as well.

    The only one I’d find surprising is Waiters – Especially if he’s in a “Utility” spot with all the other possible value out there and cheaper guys starting and/or simply playing better of late, I’m not sure the logic that would have led to that pick.

  • JSteele

    With all the value from yesterday, why didn’t you play at least 2 of Westbrook, Harden and Durant?

  • peachfuzz

    • Blogger of the Month

    What Flaherty said, and Dion Waiters as a flyer with some upside against a Houston team who pours FPs to opposing teams.

  • stu61

    @liwvu13 said...

    Im not an expert but the Hornets were playing Brooklyn last night.

    Nice. Step #1 double check schedule.

  • SoFLo21

    That is funny.. I totally messed that up, but I didn’t last night. Just for future knowledge when do bench players become viable starting options? Are blow out games a tell-tale sign?

  • horby

    @SoFLo21 said...

    that won the tournament

    Why did someone play X player in a tournament is not even a valid question in the age of big tournaments with mass multi entry.

  • peachfuzz

    • Blogger of the Month

    @SoFLo21 said...

    That is funny.. I totally messed that up, but I didn’t last night. Just for future knowledge when do bench players become viable starting options? Are blow out games a tell-tale sign?

    Bench doesn’t automatically mean bad plays. There are plenty of bench players who get tons of minutes, sometimes more than starters even.

    They become more valuable when there are players hurt where their minutes might be getting an increase even if they don’t start, and also when they play teams that give up bunches of FPs.

  • SoFLo21

    @jsteele Thats a very valid question. Honestly, When I start a guy like Westbrook i generally try to avoid other 9-10k cost guys as it tends to add “punt” positions in there that I try to steer clear of.

  • SoFLo21

    @horby said...

    Why did someone play X player in a tournament is not even a valid question

    Well judging by you’re St.Louis avatar I can understand your confusion with reality. Its an incredibly valid question for a person trying to get better. Trying to understand everyday DFS decision making.

  • liwvu13

    @SoFLo21 said...

    Thats a very valid question. Honestly, When I start a guy like Westbrook i generally try to avoid other 9-10k cost guys as it tends to add “punt” positions in there that I try to steer clear of.

    You seem to follow more of a cash game approach while playing GPP’s. “Punt” positions are your friend in GPP’s.

  • SoFLo21

    @liwvu13 said...

    You seem to follow more of a cash game approach while playing GPP’s

    GPP?

  • liwvu13

    @SoFLo21 said...

    GPP?

    Guaranteed Prize Pools . The bigger tournaments with thousands of entries.

  • SoFLo21

    @liwvu13 said...

    Guaranteed Prize Pools . The bigger tournaments with thousands of entries.

    ohh right. ok. What are cash games then?

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    @SoFLo21 said...

    That is funny.. I totally messed that up, but I didn’t last night. Just for future knowledge when do bench players become viable starting options? Are blow out games a tell-tale sign?

    Last night was a 4 game slate so that makes bench players more viable.
    With a limited player pool you likely will be looking to spend up for some of the bigger names, but then from there you may be left with 7-5k guys that you don’t like or don’t provide much upside. At that point you may look at the bench guys and find similar point projections at a cheaper cost.

    At least that was some of my thinking last night.
    Unfortunately I went a bit too hard with the bench guys, as I switched out Allen for Richardson late on FD and that killed my night.

    Again, this is just my logic – but on a night like tonight now with 12 games, there are more options and there will likely be some value that pops up throughout the day that makes it unlikely that I[‘ll be targeting any bench players today if I don’t have to.

  • liwvu13

    @SoFLo21 said...

    ohh right. ok. What are cash games then?

    Smaller tournaments. 100 or less entries and 50/50’s

  • horby

    @liwvu13 said...

    You seem to follow more of a cash game approach while playing GPP’s. “Punt” positions are your friend in GPP’s.

    That is what I meant. I went through all of the DK tournaments in last nights links and didn’t see that winning lineup. So not sure what tournament you are referring to. If you are new then when you say tournament around here people think GPP which are the big tournaments with the insane payouts at the top. If you really meant to refer to a cash game contest then yeah, that lineup is pretty stupid that won and he got lucky.

    But now that I have clarified that if you come here asking why the single lineup I have didn’t win the $3 sharpshooter out of 75,000 people then it’s kind of a throw your hands up in the air question to answer. For one you shouldn’t expect to win with a single lineup. You could be a great GPP player and play every night for five years and it would be more probable than not that you would never come in first. But what people are doing in these tournaments is selecting a pool of players they perceive as great value or potential upside regardless of risk. Then they mash together multiple lineups with this pool of players to produce a spread of lineups to win. Every single one of those guys in the winning lineup provides and acceptable level of risk/value/upside for mass multi entry.

  • moklovin

    • 2

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #2

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    • x2

      2018 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    • 2019 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Can’t believe we’re having this discussion at this point in the season.

    In short, cash games=50/50’s, Double-Ups, and Head-to-Heads, where you only have to outscore roughly 50% of the field and you try to play the most optimal/consistent lineups and let others make the mistake.

    The strategy varies greatly when playing GPP’s as the payout is extremely top-heavy.

    Let’s use an NCAA bracket pool as an analogy. Michigan State (sorry, Spartan fans!) was identified by just about everybody to win their region and picked by many to advance further (aka the chalk play). Let’s just say that 85% of the field chose MSU to reach the Final 4. If you’d picked MSU to reach the Final Four and they did, you would simply be swimming among 85% of the other entries and simply be in the middle of the pack. However, as you can tell, not everything goes according to plan and they went out in the first round despite being the obvious pick. But had you picked MSU to go down in an earlier rounds, you’d automatically have a leg up on 85% of the field. So in theory, as long as you feel that you’re right more than 15% of the time, choosing another team over MSU correctly would be considered a good play.

    Yes, it seems very risky and your bracket would be demolished if wrong, but the goal for GPP’s is to shoot for a top 5-10% finish, and you would would have been very well on your way. Yes, you could just choose for every favorite to advance, but by doing so, you would be limiting your upside. That is why ownership % is such a factor in GPP’s. It just boils down to being able to identify the right spots.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    Ohhhhh, if it were only as easy as knowing when a guy has a “plus match-up.” Hey, c’mon SoFLo21, they were playing the Nets, didn’t you know!? I’m being totally sarcastic here, if you didn’t pick up on that already.

    All this talk about plus match-ups…. ok let’s talk about plus match-ups for a moment. Jon Leurer had the plus match up of all plus match-ups in last night’s slate. With Chandler still out, Leuer gets the nod vs. a Kings team that is #1 in points allowed to PFs, and #6 in points allowed to Cs. They absolutely suck against big men. Leurer torched the Lakers for 44 points a few nights ago so it’s not like he doesn’t have it in him. At his current price/celiing, getting the start, he’s a GPP wet dream. Lather on top of that a game total of 223, highest of the night, and what do we have? a PLUS match-up.

    But what does Leuer do? He goes out and drops a massive turd on us. 12 fantasy points. Foul trouble, the guy can’t help himself. So, what’s my point you ask? My point is three-fold:

    1. Don’t EVER beat yourself up for not pin-pointing the “plus match-ups” (huge air quotes there). Plus match-ups are only a plus when the end up being a plus. I know, takes a minute for that one to sink in. If you don’t get it, re-read my Leuer case study.

    2. Accept the fact that GPP success, especially the large slate ones, really boils down to who scratches off the winning lottery ticket. I know I know, that notion flies in the face of the argument that DFS is more skill than luck. And I’ll be the first to say that’s absolutely TRUE, skill over luck, just not with GPPs. Cash games are a completely different story. Which brings me to #3…

    3. Approach GPPs with this mentality: “I doubt I’ll even cash, but if I get lucky I might cash big.” Trust me, you’ll save yourself a ton of frustration and heart-ache. Find your GPP helmet, and always wear it. It’ll protect you from a ton of damage. GPPs are sick. GPPs are cruel. And GPPs are bankroll busters. And you’ll rarely, if ever, come close to winning one. Just accept that. The sooner you do, the better.

    The smartest strategy for a DFS noob (and even a veteran trying to show a consistent profit) is to get good at cash games, focus on positive ROI there, and sprinkle in some GPPs as throw-aways with the hopes that you might get lucky and score big. My best NBA GPP score to date was 7th in a $150K. I entered that line-up x2 and took home just over $1K (not a bad ROI on a $6 investment), but believe you me, there’s not a day goes by where I don’t think to myself “wow, how lucky was that!?”

    Best of luck!

  • emitnulB

    • 90

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #20

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2019 $1M Prize Winner

    • 2018 DraftKings FBBWC Finalist

    Yeah, who would have thought that Jon Leuer doesn’t go for 40 every night? Unreal. It’s so unreal it’s sick. DFS is pure luck.

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