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  • rotologo

    Hey RG community,

    I’ve been casually but seriously trying on FD for a few years, this year I’ve played a ton of NBA DFS. As you can see in my screenshot this keeps happening lately, falling just short of the GPP cash line every night. I’m running 3-4 lineups in single entry $1/$2 and/or .25 multi-entry.

    BUT I’ve tried also running these lineups in cash games with worse results, to the point where I don’t think it’s worth it, which is frustrating. I’m looking to do better than min cash obviously. I’ve been able to get under 10% owned for a lot of my lineups while trying to keep lineups as unique as I can.

    Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated… keep at it or make some kind of adjustment?

    Thanks!

  • jimmyquinella

    • Blogger of the Month

    Nothing I can add that hasn’t been said many times before…but,

    DFS (NBA for sure) is much harder than it was in the past.
    The availability of information and sharper players make this so. (And raising rake throughout the years)
    EXPECT to lose and HOPE for a win or two. (Too many on here EXPECT to win all the time)

    If your system is constantly getting “close” , stick with it and get ready for baseball.

    And enjoy the journey.

  • rotologo

    My lineups have really consistently been just short which is great but I’ve gone the whole season w/o a modest win. Not much hoops left. Great avatar BTW.

  • Pandamonious

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    When you write,

    “I’ve been able to get under 10% owned for a lot of my lineups while trying to keep lineups as unique as I can.”

    It makes me think maybe you’re trying to be too unique? Sometimes you have to eat the chalk. This would certainly probably explain the lack of success in cash games. It only takes 1 or 2 low owned sharp plays to differentiate you from the pack. Don’t force unique plays into your line ups. Play the best plays. Most chalk is chalk for a reason. Don’t fade Zizc or Arci or Porter tonight, because they’ll be chalk. If they go off and you don’t have them you will not catch up. Every slate there’s good to great plays no one is on and if your process is sound you will naturally find them and want to play them. Don’t overthink ownership.

  • rotologo

    Thanks! I do play the chalk, it’s almost impossible to not. I’d say of 4 lineups I try to not have more than 50% of a player in general, I get really annoyed if one dude sinks my whole night. I’ll usually play one superstar per lineup, then one more with no 10k+ guys, and one with two+ lots of value.

    It’s just weird how I’m setting consistent-performing GPP lineups that flirt with cashing and yet running those in cash doesn’t work either. I’m running well but not hitting big(ish). I don’t have a big budget for DFS and I think that also hurts.

  • NoLimits0

    Yea I agree with panda. I think you might be trying to make your lineups too unique. Not ever high owned play is a bad play. It’s about choosing when to fade and when to own them. It’s not an auto fade every time.

    Cash is way harder than GPP. I think there are times you can min cash a GPP and not win cash games. I would stick to your process. If you are getting consistently close it means you are on the right track and maybe just getting a bit unlucky lately.

  • rotologo

    Thanks again. Why would cash be harder?

    I listen to RG & other dfs podcasts, they really stress low ownership.

    What about correlation? If I run 3-4 lineups how much cross over is too much? Should I try to make lineups unique to each other? TBH I am just guessing ownership rates, I don’t have access to projections, it’s more a feel thing and then checking the results.

  • rotologo

    Here’s what I’m referring to – all bunched up but not hitting

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/9408w4psns5zruh/IMG_1513.PNG?dl=0
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/pft5khs73aztq0h/IMG_1524.PNG?dl=0

  • Pandamonious

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    “ I’d say of 4 lineups I try to not have more than 50% of a player in general, I get really annoyed if one dude sinks my whole night.”

    This is a mindset I think you also need to get out of. DFS is a marathon basically. You can’t focus on each night individually. It’s about the long run. It’s very hard to just consistently churn profit in GPP’s. It’s usually going to be peaks and valleys, you just want your peaks more frequent and higher than the valleys are low.

    So you make 4 line ups, and there’s a nuts can’t miss play, and you only play him in 2 line ups. That player is say, 40% owned and goes nuts. This player is say, 5.5K and he puts up 50 FD points. Well, you now have a lot of ground to make up with your rosters to make up for not having that player. It’s going to be a uphill battle getting those 2 line ups across the cash line. Sure, of the 40% that have that player they may make mistakes in the rest of their line up and as a whole it could be dud that’s still a large portion of the field to fight.

    Now you do have him in 2 line ups, but that also only gives you 2 chances to get everything else right enough with that player to get that line up over the cash line.

    One player doesn’t make a line up, but I’m guessing you get what my point is. You can’t spread yourself to thin on any given night. You have to take stands even in small stakes or with limited line ups. If you’re making 4 line ups, most nights I would suggest or believe that there should be 2 or 3 guys you know should crush. I think you should have them in 3 or 4 or your 4 line ups. Then another 2 or 3 guys you have in 2 of your 4 line ups. Then you have the rest of your pool to mix and match for those final spots between the 4 line ups. Some nights you may not cash anything, but there will be nights you cash everything. Also if that main core you create all put up big numbers you really increase your chances of cashing in at the top.

  • NoLimits0

    @rotologo said...

    Thanks again. Why would cash be harder?

    I listen to RG & other dfs podcasts, they really stress low ownership.

    What about correlation? If I run 3-4 lineups how much cross over is too much? Should I try to make lineups unique to each other? TBH I am just guessing ownership rates, I don’t have access to projections, it’s more a feel thing and then checking the results.

    Cash is harder since more top pros play their single entry in it and on average pros have better lineups. It’s litered with the chalky high EV plays so often times the cash line in double ups is only slightly lower or possibly even higher when all chalk goes off than GPP lines even though GPP is supposed to only be top 20% or so.

  • JSteele

    One suggestion is to play based on the slate. On a night like last night when you had a ton of value open up due to injuries etc. You could easily have put it the top studs. KAT, LeBron, Simmons, Embiid etc. all were playable with a ton of value plays like JaMychal Green, Jalen Brunson, Arcidiacono and the Timberwolves value.

    Almost always a stars and scrubs lineup will outscore a balanced lineup when there is a ton of value. Of course you just have to pick correctly, like any day.

    It’s been said before, but sometimes you need to forget about ownership percentage. If Kris Dunn is playing the Lakers without LaVine and I think he has a good chance to get 40 FPTs, I will play him regardless of ownership because 40 FPTs is great for his price. It would be different if I had a good reason for a fade of a chalk player like yesterday I was not on Zizic because of the matchup against Embiid and a poor history against him and it worked out.

    When you are only running a few lineups just pick who you like in smash spots and it will work out for you most of the time if your goal is to just reach the cash line. I don’t know what kind of understanding you have of the sport, or what you use to determine the smash spots but I’ll usually look at the First Look and see the DvA/DvP. Then throughout the day i’ll look at injury news to see how it will affect the game. Not just with subs but maybe on the other side as well. When Embiid goes down, it usually means Tobias will be 30% owned and put up 50 but it also means the paint goes unprotected and bigs or driving guards can get to the rim easily. The same thing happened with Houston earlier when Capela was out. Opposing bigs were crushing them.

    Also don’t take home/road splits very lightly. A lot of teams are terrible on the road or give up more defensively. For example, I like to target the Spurs on the road against PGs or Cs generally, but not at home. An example of this is Jalen Brunson yesterday, and Eric Bledsoe the game before.

  • JSteele

    @rotologo said...

    Thanks again. Why would cash be harder?

    I listen to RG & other dfs podcasts, they really stress low ownership.

    What about correlation? If I run 3-4 lineups how much cross over is too much? Should I try to make lineups unique to each other? TBH I am just guessing ownership rates, I don’t have access to projections, it’s more a feel thing and then checking the results.

    Don’t listen to DFS podcasts is my other advice. I listened to one once and the guy basically listed every starter on every team and labelled them “good plays” or “gpp plays.” It’s true you might need to look for lower owned players who go off to take one down, but you need to make your own decisions. Come to the NBA forum for a discussion about the slate and you will quickly find out who the chalk plays are, then make your own choices about whether you want to play them or fade them.

  • hithisisnom

    Tournament selection is also extremely important.

    I’ve found that smaller tournaments — especially multipliers — tend to be extremely chalky, and essentially play like cash games, even if the payout structure doesn’t quite reward that. On the other hand, larger-field tournaments tend to have much more evenly dispersed ownership, even on the can’t-miss, obvious plays.

    What’s the upshot of that? Well, if you think the chalk is overrated and going to bust, particularly if it’s expensive chalk, enter a bunch of multipliers and go severely underweight. If you think the chalk is almost always going to hit, enter a bunch of larger tournaments and go overweight. Letting the slate dynamics dictate where/how you allocate your bankroll is an easy way to increase profitability without gaining access to any different information.

  • DFSx42

    @hithisisnom said...

    Tournament selection is also extremely important.

    I’ve found that smaller tournaments — especially multipliers — tend to be extremely chalky, and essentially play like cash games, even if the payout structure doesn’t quite reward that. On the other hand, larger-field tournaments tend to have much more evenly dispersed ownership, even on the can’t-miss, obvious plays.

    What’s the upshot of that? Well, if you think the chalk is overrated and going to bust, particularly if it’s expensive chalk, enter a bunch of multipliers and go severely underweight. If you think the chalk is almost always going to hit, enter a bunch of larger tournaments and go overweight. Letting the slate dynamics dictate where/how you allocate your bankroll is an easy way to increase profitability without gaining access to any different information.

    I can’t tell if this is sage advice or the dfs equivalent of move up to where they respect your raises :)

    this is good in theory but I’d seriously like to see the results, it really feels like leveling yourself due to some sample size issues

  • timusbr

    I dont play much Basketball but I think this is a true statement of any DFS LU.

    chalk LU’s is made for Cash games and if your a low stakes player keep it low stay away from sharks if possible. If you have riskier low owned players, go Gpp.

  • boognish22

    I played Teague + Taytum on saturday night instead of DRose + Collins which would have won me the FD 100k tournament. Nothing you can do but trust your process and keep grinding.

  • emnj69

    the bigger the tournament the more i try to target upper tier players that will have low ownership. In cash or smaller tournaments eating chalk is fine. My success in nba has not been near my football success but when I have done well it was also with players that had lower ownership rates.

    I am not a mass entry guy so my entries I try to be different which definitely comes with risks and many nights you know it may bust but you only need one night to make it all worth it

    I won a 100 k gpp in football and I had obj aj green ty hilton brandon cooks and zach ertz all very high end players all with less than 10% ownership—they all had “tough matchups” and were all coming off of bad games.

  • hithisisnom

    @DFSx42 said...

    I can’t tell if this is sage advice or the dfs equivalent of move up to where they respect your raises :)

    this is good in theory but I’d seriously like to see the results, it really feels like leveling yourself due to some sample size issues

    If you’re actually suggesting I might level myself needlessly well then I guess maybe we’ve met or something

  • DFSx42

    @hithisisnom said...

    If you’re actually suggesting I might level myself needlessly well then I guess maybe we’ve met or something

    I think we’ve all been there :)

    I think it all depends upon the amount of multiples in the multiplier but going off anecdotal memory, I think you’d need pretty large multiples like 10x as a starting point to make that feasible. I don’t play multipliers though so I’ve never run the simulations with that in mind.

  • gravitymaze

    90 percent is figuring out who the heck is starting in a game.

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