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  • bhdevault

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    Thursday, 10/15
    8:08 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( -235 ) at Atlanta ( 195 ) —- T: 9.5

    Friday, 10/16
    6:07 PM EST : Houston ( 115 ) at Tampa Bay ( -135 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • superjon

    FD is such a mess

    https://vvcap.com/img/wKfOlQPVb.png

  • RatedDAL

    Me searching for reasons to fade Kershaw.

  • telestraightshooter

    @RatedDAL said...

    Me searching for reasons to fade Kershaw.

    Regression to the Postseason mean can be downright mean

    His career regular season ERA is 2.43 while
    his postseason ERA rises to …. .. 4.23
    2020.10.01 vs Brewers: 8 innings 0.00 ERA . . 45.6 dK
    2020.10.07 vs Padres: . 6 innings 4.50 ERA . . 19.9 dK

    “I wish there was a magic formula to have everything going the way you want it to every game, but sometimes it just doesn’t work that way,” – CK

    myself I’d peg his chances of a +4 ERA today @ 66% … but 20 dK points might be most for a SP?

  • superjon

    Mookie Smash!

  • RatedDAL

    The worst case Kershaw outcomes all probably involve back spasms cause him to exit very early.

  • Pandamonious

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    Pretty hard to pick a 2nd pitcher.

    Not sure I want to mess with picking Astros. I’m expecting Garcia gets hammered. No idea who comes in after?

    Curtiss won’t pitch more than 2? Flemming seems to be the likely option, but is there any reason to be confident there?

  • Volkster6

    I actually might try and take a 0 today… it could be +EV in the 2nd pitcher spot. I know we discussed it yesterday, but today it makes a whole lot of sense

  • Pandamonious

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    @Volkster6 said...

    I actually might try and take a 0 today… it could be +EV in the 2nd pitcher spot. I know we discussed it yesterday, but today it makes a whole lot of sense

    Curtiss can do better than zero, I mean what’s his worst case?! Can’t be as bad as Wright?!

  • superjon

    So Curtiss pitches an inning, maybe two, and then Fleming comes in?

    What about Houston, how far are we expecting Garcia to go assuming he doesn’t get blown up?

  • RatedDAL

    Glad to see Houston going with a bullpen game. Valdez, McCullers, Urquidy all on short rest made no sense when you gotta win em all.

    That being said, the Astros are probably done today.

  • Pandamonious

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    @superjon said...

    So Curtiss pitches an inning, maybe two, and then Fleming comes in?

    What about Houston, how far are we expecting Garcia to go assuming he doesn’t get blown up?

    The assumption is Flemming, but I can’t find anything official.

    Garcia isn’t supposed to go beyond one-time through the order. So, 3 innings if he’s lights out. Probably 2. Maybe 1 if he gets wrecked. Then, no idea. Josh James?

    Definitely most likely one of these guys..

    Chase De Jong, Josh James, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, Ryan Pressly, Brooks Raley, Andre Scrubb, Cy Sneed, Blake Taylor,

  • ifthethunder

    What if…WRIGHT WAS RIGHT!!??

    No, I can’t even make myself believe it. But I can believe a Braves stack might help you hedge whatever else you have and maybe win some money.
    ~

  • Yeoman

    @Pandamonious said...

    Definitely most likely one of these guys..

    Chase De Jong, Josh James, Cristian Javier, Enoli Paredes, Ryan Pressly, Brooks Raley, Andre Scrubb, Cy Sneed, Blake Taylor,

    So maybe a stars and Scrubb lineup tonight?

  • Volkster6

    Right now I have Kershaw and James. If James comes in, he could pitch a few innings, and definitely has some K/IP upside… the only issue is he’s not going more than 2 plus. But in a slate where 75% will have Kershaw who is ailing, not taking a -pts from Wilson, Garcia or a Curtiss could help

  • Pandamonious

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    Really want to go to Wilson after what happened to Wright. At least Wilson has a ceiling, but just not confident in it. I have zero confidence in Garcia. He’s barely pitched in the bigs, never above A-ball before this year. ERA and xFIP have a pretty significant gap. Curtiss…I mean who wants to trust a guy with 2 S’s, at the end of Curtis? Is it pronounced Curtis? His history as an opener isn’t good, but only 3 times, so not much sample size. No guarantee James or Fleming come in, and they’re priced to where you need positive points most likely, as chances are between Wilson, Curtiss, Garcia (who are all cheaper) at least 1 of them will end in the positive.

  • superjon

    Brandon Lowe get right spot

  • Pandamonious

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    Marc Topkin
    @TBTimes_Rays
    #Rays Cash said they’d hope to get a couple innings from Curtiss and then plan “to mix and match”

    This doesn’t sound like 3 innings or more of Fleming, but I guess I could just be overreading.

  • RatedDAL

    Wilson has got to have a decent leash after yesterday. Still up 2-1. I’m being swayed in that direction on FD.

    Plus I get 3 hours to continue tinkering between him and Kershaw.

  • Volkster6

    @Pandamonious said...

    Marc Topkin
    @TBTimes_Rays
    #Rays Cash said they’d hope to get a couple innings from Curtiss and then plan “to mix and match”

    This doesn’t sound like 3 innings or more of Fleming, but I guess I could just be overreading.

    I read an article posted that said the reason they brought Fleming in was for game 5 specifically. Who knows, we are spitballing.

    You are correct in that one of the 3 besides Kershaw will be in the optimal on let’s say 85/100 slates. A RP in the other 15. But looking at a Chris Wilson or Garcia 32% split each with 3% left over to spread to relievers works for me. Fleming or James is the question for me at the moment

  • yisman

    @Pandamonious said...

    Marc Topkin
    @TBTimes_Rays
    #Rays Cash said they’d hope to get a couple innings from Curtiss and then plan “to mix and match”

    This doesn’t sound like 3 innings or more of Fleming, but I guess I could just be overreading.

    I’m still sore from using Snell against the Yankees because he was supposed to pitch after Glasnow.

    Then Cash decided just to do a bullpen game and save Snell for Game 1 of the next series. I took a high-priced zero.

    Not sure I can stomach Fleming here.

  • zovyn

    I can’t find enough reason to get off Kershaw. It’s a shit slate, imo. Once you lock in Kershaw (on FD) the bargain bats are going to be high ownership. Going to be tough to differentiate but getting cute will likely backfire.

    Guess I’m just trying to break even tonight. Maybe I won’t play the slate at all. (Yeah right)

  • RatedDAL

    @zovyn said...

    I can’t find enough reason to get off Kershaw. It’s a shit slate, imo. Once you lock in Kershaw (on FD) the bargain bats are going to be high ownership. Going to be tough to differentiate but getting cute will likely backfire.

    Guess I’m just trying to break even tonight. Maybe I won’t play the slate at all. (Yeah right)

    I agree. The best way to differentiate is at least a mini Braves stack with Kershaw although most Braves bats aint cheap and Kershaw sure isn’t.

    Maybe you play a Dodger or Ray bat on the bench knowing how Roberts substitutes.

  • ImADonk11

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    I am seeing mixed reports on the roof being open/closed at Globe Life. Roof has been open and I just assumed it would stay open especially since they have some fans there but there are people talking about the roof is closed and may stay closed. That is huge if it is closed tonight. Anyone find anything concrete?

  • Volkster6

    @RatedDAL said...

    I agree. The best way to differentiate is at least a mini Braves stack with Kershaw although most Braves bats aint cheap and Kershaw sure isn’t.

    Maybe you play a Dodger bat on the bench knowing how Roberts substitutes.

    Sharp comment Rated!

    I don’t play on FD but it seems like Kershaw will be 90% which means cheaper bats are chalky. If I played on FD tonight another way to differentiate would be to play Kershaw with the cheapest catcher and cheapest 2B, the typically lowest scoring positions. I’m not talking the lowest salaried starter im legit talking about playing the lowest priced players and paying up everywhere else.

    Obviously this is a high risk strategy so you will lose more often, but 0 for hitters aren’t uncommon!

  • RatedDAL

    I’m gonna go Wilson and zero Dodgers. Thats probably as unique as it’ll get tonight.

    I can’t stomach Kershaws performance being enjoyed by the masses. Always looking for that edge that will eliminate the competition. This is as good a spot as any.

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