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  • bhdevault

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    Tuesday, 10/20
    8:09 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 156 ) at LA Dodgers ( -171 ) —- T: 7.5

    Wednesday, 10/21
    8:08 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( 131 ) at LA Dodgers ( -142 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • homers1226

    cant fit my 3 dodgers lefties
    guess its a tb stack

  • monarch

    @homers1226 said...

    cant fit my 3 dodgers lefties
    guess its a tb stack

    Why on earth would you want Dodgers lefties?

  • homers1226

    bats ,sorry

  • Pandamonious

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    @monarch said...

    Yandy is fine. Cam Akers was never a play…not sure why people were touting him. Yandy is projected for four to five at bats. Akers was projected for nothing…and did nothing. Yandy may do nothing as well.

    Akers was touted because he was 2K, coming off 9 carries, and got the coach hype treatment going into the game.

    Agree though that it’s an apples and oranges comparison.

    Is Diaz todays Zeke Elliot would be more comparable.

  • monarch

    @homers1226 said...

    bats ,sorry

    I know…why would you want those LHBs? I largely faded them outside of some Bellinger

  • thedkexperience

    @jdtrey said...

    20 point floors? Neither of them is even projected for 20 total – that’s definitely not their floor lol
    Not saying it’s likely but both of these pitchers are very capable of putting up negative numbers tonight.

    That’s a bad projection. They both have Vegas over unders of 6.5 Ks. Each can easily pitch 6 innings.

    6 IP = 13.5
    6 K = 12

    That’s 25.5 right there. Probably lose 4.2 on walks and hits and then 6 for 3 ER.

    So the floor is about 15, sorry. If you want to deal in floors in the literal sense both their floors are like -10 but I’ll stay in the realm of normalcy.

    Glasnow had 19.8 or more for 9 straight starts until 2 games ago.

    Kershaw has had 19.9 or more in 9 of 13 starts.

    So yeah, the prediction is questionable.

  • marker0357

    Dodgers in 6. Mookie MVP.

  • monarch

    Glasnow lights out vs LHB.

    Bellinger does have some nice BVP data against him which is something I suppose.

    Glasnow has allowed six HRs in the postseason

    Danny Jansen
    Danny Jansen
    Giancarlo Stanton
    Giancarlo Stanton
    Jose Altuve
    George Springer

    All RHB. Now that does not mean he can only give up HRs to RHBs but it does make me like Will Smith more than I normally would. Odds are that Glasnow gives up a HR and I am siding with the lower owned RHBs over the LHBs.

    I’d like to add that Corey Seager has been phenomenal and Max Muncy and Joc Pederson have plenty of power. I’m just not playing those guys tonight. I read where Muncy took a hopper off his face a little while ago in warmup which probably is just noise.

  • Yeoman

    @monarch said...

    Gross lol.

    I used to listen to narrative based stuff like that. Now I just lose all my money on optimizers and projections that do not come to fruition.

    I think it’s important in showdown to have…well, not a narrative maybe, but a game script at least. It’s the only way I can get the correlations right. I have to be able to tell myself a game story that would put my lineup on top.

    When the narrative includes phrases like “cannot fail” it’s probably gone off the rails though. If it’s detailed enough to work, it’s very likely to fail.

  • homers1226

    @monarch said...

    I know…why would you want those LHBs? I largely faded them outside of some Bellinger

    la hits better then they pitch

    tb pitches better then they hit

    top of lu leftie batters dodgers stack was undoable for me

    so i just threw one in

  • Volkster6

    Don’t be afraid to negatively correlate as well. A Dodgers stack with Glasnow in the flex works very well if, say the Dodgers win 6-0 or 4-1 but it’s 1-0 late into the game.

  • Yeoman

    @monarch said...

    Glasnow lights out vs LHB.

    Bellinger does have some nice BVP data against him which is something I suppose.

    Glasnow has allowed six HRs in the postseason

    Danny Jansen
    Danny Jansen
    Giancarlo Stanton
    Giancarlo Stanton
    Jose Altuve
    George Springer

    All RHB. Now that does not mean he can only give up HRs to RHBs but it does make me like Will Smith more than I normally would. Odds are that Glasnow gives up a HR and I am siding with the lower owned RHBs over the LHBs.

    I’d like to add that Corey Seager has been phenomenal and Max Muncy and Joc Pederson have plenty of power. I’m just not playing those guys tonight. I read where Muncy took a hopper off his face a little while ago in warmup which probably is just noise.

    59 of the 80 hitters he faced were righties, so 6-0 isn’t completely out of the realm of random chance. BA is .236 vs. .235, K/9 is 11.7 vs. 11.6.

  • Yeoman

    Adding in the regular season he gave up 14 HR on 183 ABs to righties, 3 HR on 135 ABs to lefties. So I guess I’m convinced after all. But I’m playing Pederson anyway because I can’t fit anyone else and lock’s ten minutes away.

  • choppadown

    Think I’m sticking with all batters for my single bullet, didn’t play the $20 on DK cause I don’t have the slightest clue what I’m doing, but I’m in most of the single entries that were out there.

  • monarch

    @Yeoman said...

    Adding in the regular season he gave up 14 HR on 183 ABs to righties, 3 HR on 135 ABs to lefties. So I guess I’m convinced after all.

    I confirmed that as well. PlateIQ has him nasty vs LHB…I think a .092 iso.

    My opinion is the stuff he throws he challenges the RHBs and if there is nobody on he is okay with an occasional solo shot.

  • yisman

    @thedkexperience said...

    Yeah, it’s accurate.

    If you’re paying for a pitcher tonight they will likely put up more points then 1 homer. It’s unlikely they will put up more points then if someone hits 2 homers.

    The two pitchers tonight should have 20 point floors and any bat can always get a 0. So you really gotta nail the hitters in order for it to be the correct play.

    But if you do nail the right players you’ll score a ton of points.

    You’d be risking last place but this is how you win 1st place too.

    they do not have 20 point floors

    if they did, they’d both be locks

  • homers1226

    dont !

  • Yeoman

    @marker0357 said...

    Dodgers in 6. Mookie MVP.

    Rays in 3. No MVP is awarded.

    That’s how you win a pool when there’s 100 million entrants.

  • feezyg

    Only Ray I played was Lowe, so by DFS rules the Rays win 10-1. Seriously though, I like Dodger RHB and Kershaw. Kershaw has been had by LHB and the Rays only have 3 on the lineup. I wanted Meadows too but not on the lineup. Faded Diaz, not sure why people liked him so much, leading off is not a number….

  • yisman

    the $333 with 500 entries filled so early, DK wound up posting two more, with 100 spots each

  • feezyg

    Kershaw throwing 70 mph, gonna be a long night….

  • zovyn

    (F/D Showdown)

    I went with batters 2-4-8 from LAD because that’s my area code and I went with 3-9 from TB because 3×3=9.

    There’s my strategy for the night. Let’s see how it works out.

  • monarch

    Ownership is wild. Pederson is twice that of Will Smith. I guess it was all optimizers.

  • Pandamonious

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    @feezyg said...

    I wanted Meadows too but not on the lineup. Faded Diaz, not sure why people liked him so much, leading off is not a number….

    Leading off is a number. It’s number 1. As in most likely to have the most AB’s. More chances to put points up. Also puts better hitters behind him, which means he’s more likely to come in if he gets on, and runs = same points as RBI’s.

    No, it doesn’t guarantee anything, neither is any hitter guaranteed anything. He’s also one of the cheapest hitters on the slate, which made fitting Kershaw captain, or Kershaw and Glasnow together in a line up easier. Certainly his 1K extra provides more certainty than any 4K reliever.

  • Pandamonious

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    @monarch said...

    Ownership is wild. Pederson is twice that of Will Smith. I guess it was all optimizers.

    He’s 3K cheaper than Smith. Can’t really compare.

    Cheap HR power is always high owned in showdown.

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