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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    12:40 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( -194 ) at Miami ( 178 ) —- T: 8
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • cordscords

    Baseball is back!

    For the featured DK contests, I think you gotta pay up for either Sale/Max. A cheap Royals stack against Shields helps open up some value as well.

  • 866

    Prices seem pretty condensed for the batters.. not many crazy high price tags (Trout highest at 5400, Stanton 5300). Tons of guys in the low-upper 4000’s.. seems a little steep for many. Should be an interesting slate.

  • tonedefrob

    Shields is bad enough, but if Castillo is catching him on opening day how do you not stack the Royals?

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @tonedefrob said...

    Shields is bad enough, but if Castillo is catching him on opening day how do you not stack the Royals?

    1 – “A league-leading 44.4 percent caught stealing rate and the first above-average pitch framing marks of his career”
    https://theathletic.com/173689/2017/12/04/can-the-white-sox-count-on-welington-castillos-much-improved-defense-in-2018/ (pay wall)

    2 – Shields had a 14.3 K-BB% and league average hard hit rate (31.4%) over his last 10 starts.

    3 – Kansas City is a power suppressing park. Weather is going to be the real key to how you want to fill your lineup Thursday though.

    4 – The Kansas City lineup may suck.

    5 – There are a lot more attackable pitchers than you’d expect on Opening Day this year, either overall (Zimmermann) or with platoon split problems (Richard, Nova, Odorizzi) in interesting spots to open the season.

    Not saying Merrifield, Mouse, Duda are a bad idea at all (anyone with multiple lineups probably needs some exposure), but there may be reasons to fade if this is the route everyone is going to pay up for pitching.

  • jtkucheck

    Seems as though there’s going to be some alpha in SPs that were not yet announced as opening day SPs when prices came out.

    Dylan Bundy jumps out as potentially the best value among SPs in this category.

  • tonedefrob

    @MTro86 said...

    1 – “A league-leading 44.4 percent caught stealing rate and the first above-average pitch framing marks of his career”
    https://theathletic.com/173689/2017/12/04/can-the-white-sox-count-on-welington-castillos-much-improved-defense-in-2018/ (pay wall)

    Thanks for the info. Been in this awhile so I know about KC’s park/weather/all that.

    The article is behind a pay wall so I can’t see what it says about his framing. What I do know it 4/5 of Baltimore’s regular starters last year were markedly worse with Castillo behind the plate. Bundy was the only one who was better. It became a known factor to play Gausman when he had Joseph behind the plate. Even Ubaldo was in play when he had Joseph rather than Castillo, depending who they were facing.

    I’d like to know what stats they’re measuring “above-average” on. StatCorner has him as 15th worst when it comes to RAA. Middle/bottom third when it comes to everything else. Not like he’s going to be working with a better staff this year unless their young guys take a leap.

    As you mentioned, there are more factors than pitcher and catcher in this. The park matters, weather matters, ownership, etc. But I’m hard pressed to believe Castillo is now some framing savant on par with the LAD battery and Flowers, or the second tier of guys like Mathis, Vazquez, R Perez, etc.

  • jtkucheck

    @tonedefrob said...

    The article is behind a pay wall so I can’t see what it says about his framing.

    The Athletic is $50/year and an amazing value for the quality content across multiple sports/cities. It isn’t supposed to be for fantasy necessarily, but the amount of access the writers have to players and coaches has value in and of itself, and they are starting a fledgling fantasy baseball section, led by Eno Sarris.

    I don’t profit in any way by getting others to subscribe and frankly would rather fewer people did so I had more of a competitive advantage, but it is one of the truly amazing values in media content.

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @tonedefrob said...

    Thanks for the info. Been in this awhile so I know about KC’s park/weather/all that.

    The article is behind a pay wall so I can’t see what it says about his framing. What I do know it 4/5 of Baltimore’s regular starters last year were markedly worse with Castillo behind the plate. Bundy was the only one who was better. It became a known factor to play Gausman when he had Joseph behind the plate. Even Ubaldo was in play when he had Joseph rather than Castillo, depending who they were facing.

    I’d like to know what stats they’re measuring “above-average” on. StatCorner has him as 15th worst when it comes to RAA. Middle/bottom third when it comes to everything else. Not like he’s going to be working with a better staff this year unless their young guys take a leap.

    As you mentioned, there are more factors than pitcher and catcher in this. The park matters, weather matters, ownership, etc. But I’m hard pressed to believe Castillo is now some framing savant on par with the LAD battery and Flowers, or the second tier of guys like Mathis, Vazquez, R Perez, etc.

    Framing metrics have been a bit volatile the last few years, leading some to re-question their worth. Some of it could be umpires getting better, some of it could be that more established pitchers with good reputations are just as important for getting calls as framing sometimes. I mean, I think the era where you’re going to see someone consistently get Tom Glavine calls is gone, but it might matter to an extent. We’re even realizing now that stolen bases are as much, if not more, on a pitcher than they are on a catcher a lot of times (though tell that to someone who watched Mike Piazza catch all the time – to be fair, he was probably above average at other defensive things though). All this rambling is to say that I have no idea how much to or even IF to value catcher framing anymore.

  • jtkucheck

    Homer Bailey named Reds opening day starter… stack those Nats!

  • yanksfan1

    Stacks the nats

  • specvspeed03

    Don’t pay up for the stud pitchers on Opening Day. I made this mistake last year and a lot of them weren’t quite themselves yet early on. Also you won’t see guys like Sale going past the 7th inning early in the season. Stack against some of these guys that are vulerable to the long ball (Ex. Scherzer)

  • Ndepompei

    Phillies stack in ATL vs Teheran

  • upgradetoquestionable

    @specvspeed03 said...

    Don’t pay up for the stud pitchers on Opening Day. I made this mistake last year and a lot of them weren’t quite themselves yet early on. Also you won’t see guys like Sale going past the 7th inning early in the season. Stack against some of these guys that are vulerable to the long ball (Ex. Scherzer)

    I think these are great points. Early in the year it seems managers are more hesitant to go deep even with their aces. Find one or two studs to go against and you can get good value. It’s risky but I think it is effective.

    Early slate looking at Mets vs Carlos Martinez.

  • ChaosM83

    • 749

      RG Overall Ranking

    @specvspeed03 said...

    Don’t pay up for the stud pitchers on Opening Day. I made this mistake last year and a lot of them weren’t quite themselves yet early on. Also you won’t see guys like Sale going past the 7th inning early in the season. Stack against some of these guys that are vulerable to the long ball (Ex. Scherzer)

    I think this is a case by case basis. Sometimes to start the year a pitchers velocity might be down, sometimes their pitch count isn’t up where it should be yet, they could have had a bad spring so they are still finding their release points. Some will be pitching in colder weather, so they won’t be as loose as they should be. There are certain aces that I think have these factors working for them, and some against them. There are a couple that I wouldn’t mind paying up for, and there are some that I won’t have any piece of.

  • madmanjayWV

    You guys worried about pitch framing on opening day — you’d be better served focusing on the umpires

  • MTro86

    RG Writer

    @upgradetoquestionable said...

    I think these are great points. Early in the year it seems managers are more hesitant to go deep even with their aces. Find one or two studs to go against and you can get good value. It’s risky but I think it is effective.

    Early slate looking at Mets vs Carlos Martinez.

    Haven’t looked at pricing yet, but I’m certainly interested in Nimmo leading off at a reasonable cost against a pitcher with historic platoon and control problems. Latest weather report looks favorable Thursday afternoon as well.

  • tonedefrob

    @madmanjayWV said...

    You guys worried about pitch framing on opening day — you’d be better served focusing on the umpires

    We could do that if the umpire assignments were released three days out. If you magically have them, please, do share.

  • sochoice

    • 2017 DraftKings FBWC Finalist

    • 2017 FanDuel WFFC Champion

    @specvspeed03 said...

    Don’t pay up for the stud pitchers on Opening Day. I made this mistake last year and a lot of them weren’t quite themselves yet early on. Also you won’t see guys like Sale going past the 7th inning early in the season. Stack against some of these guys that are vulerable to the long ball (Ex. Scherzer)

    unless he goes 7, strikes out 11, gives up zero runs and gets the win.

  • Tambo722

    Will we be able to generate lineups through rotogrinders?

  • johnfoster8

    If you search for MLB TV on Ebay there are listings for the whole season of MLB.TV for $7.99

  • Jeddy3

    @johnfoster8 said...

    If you search for MLB TV on Ebay there are listings for the whole season of MLB.TV for $7.99

    Hmmmm seems…..shady.

  • d735123

    @upgradetoquestionable said...

    I think these are great points. Early in the year it seems managers are more hesitant to go deep even with their aces. Find one or two studs to go against and you can get good value. It’s risky but I think it is effective.

    Early slate looking at Mets vs Carlos Martinez.

    Carlos Martinez got 10 Ks in 7.1 innings on opening day last year. Threw 105 pitches.

  • RandysCrow

    • Ranked #39

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Thinking I may go with a Marte/Frazier Pirate combo mixed with a Cubs stack and a sprinkle of a couple other players in good positions for the early slate on FD.

  • bobbbb

    Is Frazier definitely a starter for Pitt?

  • Jnvrmind

    @jtkucheck said...

    Homer Bailey named Reds opening day starter… stack those Nats!

    The Nats better bring their galoshes. 100% chance of rain,opening day in Cincinnati.

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