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  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    1:05 PM EST : Toronto ( +152 ) at NY Yankees ( -165 ) — T: 8
    1:10 PM EST : Cleveland ( -193 ) at Detroit ( +177 ) — T: 7.5
    2:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( -108 ) at Milwaukee ( -102 ) — T: 8
    2:10 PM EST : Baltimore ( +162 ) at Boston ( -176 ) — T: 9
    2:20 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( +204 ) at Chi Cubs ( -225 ) — T:
    3:05 PM EST : Atlanta ( -107 ) at Philadelphia ( -103 ) — T: 7.5
    4:10 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( -225 ) at Colorado ( +204 ) — T: 11.5
    4:10 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -156 ) at Miami ( +144 ) — T: 8
    4:10 PM EST : Arizona ( +196 ) at San Diego ( -215 ) — T: 8
    4:10 PM EST : Texas ( +139 ) at Kansas City ( -150 ) — T: 9
    4:10 PM EST : St. Louis ( +105 ) at Cincinnati ( -115 ) — T: 7.5
    7:09 PM EST : NY Mets ( -136 ) at Washington ( +126 ) — T: 7
    10:05 PM EST : Chi Sox ( -120 ) at LA Angels ( +110 ) — T: 8.5
    10:07 PM EST : Houston ( -107 ) at Oakland ( -103 ) — T: 8.5
    10:10 PM EST : SF Giants ( -113 ) at Seattle ( +103 ) — T: 8.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • maddysdaddy0914

    It’s finally here. Been looking forward to this for quite some time. I play mostly FD so most comments will be reflective of that.

    For opening day, initial thoughts as far as pitching goes… hard to ignore Bieber up top. Keller and Alcantera on the lower end.

    Stacks at first glance, Red Sox, Braves (tho the slow spring has me a little timid), Royals and depending on the wind at wrigley might have a mix of Pirates.

  • emnj69

    weather is definitely going to have an impact-hard to set line ups until that pans out-here in NYC area-looks like rain and wind…

  • Southie777

    Had my fantasy baseball draft last night and finally getting fired up about baseball. I just could NOT get into baseball at all last year. Opted out of my league for the year, played a handful of DFS slates, barely watched any games until the playoffs. Don’t know what it was, just depression from how dark everything was getting with COVID, the direction of my Red Sox certainly didn’t help, but it was much more than that. I don’t know. But now that things are looking up, I’m back in my league, weather is getting nicer, and Opening Day is two days away, I’m fired up!

  • Southie777

    @emnj69 said...

    weather is definitely going to have an impact-hard to set line ups until that pans out-here in NYC area-looks like rain and wind…

    Yeah, not looking rosy here in Boston, either, as my weather app shows a 100% chance of rain. Every day around it, pretty nice, Thursday is a just a big rain cloud. 😳

  • feekdogg

    I noticed that some players on FD now have dual-position eligibility (like Freddy Galvis is now 2B/SS, Max Muncy is 2B/1B, etc.). I don’t think it’s been like this in the past, but my memory isn’t always the best on account of how I acted in my late teens/early 20s.

  • lpdev

    Finally the start of a FULL MLB season is here. I’ve got the day off work and MLB Extra Innings. Going to be Glorious!

  • Eyehatetodd

    @Southie777 said...

    Had my fantasy baseball draft last night and finally getting fired up about baseball. I just could NOT get into baseball at all last year. Opted out of my league for the year, played a handful of DFS slates, barely watched any games until the playoffs. Don’t know what it was, just depression from how dark everything was getting with COVID, the direction of my Red Sox certainly didn’t help, but it was much more than that. I don’t know. But now that things are looking up, I’m back in my league, weather is getting nicer, and Opening Day is two days away, I’m fired up!

    This was exactly me last season too. Have 4 season long leagues I do every year, and I tanked every one last season and didn’t even set my lineups once the season resumed. Just couldn’t get into it thanks to COVID and everything that was going on. Had my first money draft last night and was kind of dreading it because I haven’t been paying much attention to spring training or baseball talk in general. Now I’m ready to go and looking forward to it! Don’t usually do DFS MLB because I’m mainly just an NFL DFS guy, but I’m looking to break into it this season finally

  • panters

    Has anyone read any articles on DK Showdown strategy for MLB? I’m going to try some things, albeit low stakes, this season. It doesn’t hurt to ask, lol.
    Thanks.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I’ll probably play some mlb dfs for the first week to try it. 2 questions;

    1. Can I set it and forget it with mlb dfs? I dont want have to be watching the news all day.

    2. How often does chalk win vs being contrarian? I am thinking since I know nothing about mlb, my picks will already by contrarian ish and that will help if the strategy of being unique matters.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @jv21 said...

    I’ll probably play some mlb dfs for the first week to try it. 2 questions;

    1. Can I set it and forget it with mlb dfs? I dont want have to be watching the news all day.

    2. How often does chalk win vs being contrarian? I am thinking since I know nothing about mlb, my picks will already by contrarian ish and that will help if the strategy of being unique matters.

    1. Line ups usually get announced roughly 3 hours before first pitch of that game. Rarely does a player get late scratched, but it does happen.

    2. I think it’s roughly 50/50. It’s not rare at all for a line up full of elite hitters to underwhelm against a poor pitcher. Furthermore, with HR’s being such an integral part of scoring nowadays, a team can beat up a poor pitcher with singles, walks, and doubles, and still put up underwhelming scores as a whole. Baseball IMO, is probably the easiest sport to fade the chalk as far as hitters. Pitching it’s a little more difficult.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @Pandamonious said...

    1. Line ups usually get announced roughly 3 hours before first pitch of that game. Rarely does a player get late scratched, but it does happen.

    2. I think it’s roughly 50/50. It’s not rare at all for a line up full of elite hitters to underwhelm against a poor pitcher. Furthermore, with HR’s being such an integral part of scoring nowadays, a team can beat up a poor pitcher with singles, walks, and doubles, and still put up underwhelming scores as a whole. Baseball IMO, is probably the easiest sport to fade the chalk as far as hitters. Pitching it’s a little more difficult.

    Sounds good. This makes me more interested to play. Thanks!

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    67 degrees and sunny for 1st pitch at Coors. What could go wrong?

  • thedkexperience

    @jv21 said...

    I’ll probably play some mlb dfs for the first week to try it. 2 questions;

    1. Can I set it and forget it with mlb dfs? I dont want have to be watching the news all day.

    2. How often does chalk win vs being contrarian? I am thinking since I know nothing about mlb, my picks will already by contrarian ish and that will help if the strategy of being unique matters.

    Before I get into your questions please let me say how good it is to get back to the Cadillac of DFS sports. I absolutely love DFS baseball season!

    On to your questions …

    1 – What you need to be very aware of are the lineups each day. It’s common for a lineup to be put out 3 or 4 hours before the game starts and 99.99% of the time it will not change at that point. So from that perspective, yes you can “set it and forget it” but only after that. Do not enter lineups the night before thinking you know the team. You likely don’t. Most people don’t. Some managers do weird stuff daily and one day an 8 hitter can be batting lead off based just on the whims of the guy in charge.

    There’s certain things that can guide you if you must enter a LU the night before (the 4th OF may always play against a lefty or going with a backup catcher the day after a night game) but still, these are guides not rules.

    To be safe, wait for the lineup to come out and then build.

    2. That’s slate specific and baseball chalk isn’t like NBA or NFL chalk. Twice a week Mike Trout and Mookie Betts will get zeros. Cody Bellinger might go 11 days in between homers. Scott Kingery could get called back up and hit 6 homers in 4 days. Say it with me now … it’s baseball.

    But there is some chalk. Especially early in the season you will see a huge bias towards major market teams, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rockies at home are another one that gets crazy high ownership. If all things are equal you probably want to take the player from the less popular team, but if JD Martinez has 7 RBI and the Red Sox score 15 runs on opening day you can set your watch to him being 50% owned the next day.

    What’s important is not trying to follow the chalk but have the ability to shrug off days when the chalk hits.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that on offense this is essentially a game of guess the homerun. On FD a homer is 18.7 points last I checked. If you get 1 homer from every player you’re gonna win thousands of dollars that day and I don’t really care who else does what.

    Unlike NBA or NFL where volume is everything in MLB almost every single starting player will have 4-5 opportunities. Of course a leadoff hitter will potentially have more than a 9 hole hitter but the margin is small. This isn’t a case where Ben Simmons will play 38 minutes and Furkan Korkmaz will play 16. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and whatever bum CF the Phillies are playing that day will all have nearly the same opportunities.

    But, where the magic comes in is that a player who is often labeled a bum (like Korkmaz) can every few days be put in a lineup spot in front of a Harper type on a manager’s whim and get that 18.7 at minimum price while 35% of the field is paying 2.5 times that for Bryce.

    Not sure if I cleared it up for made it more confusing for you. Please let me know if you have other questions. I love the helping new players part of the season.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #67

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @thedkexperience said...

    Before I get into your questions please let me say how good it is to get back to the Cadillac of DFS sports. I absolutely love DFS baseball season!

    On to your questions …

    1 – What you need to be very aware of are the lineups each day. It’s common for a lineup to be put out 3 or 4 hours before the game starts and 99.99% of the time it will not change at that point. So from that perspective, yes you can “set it and forget it” but only after that. Do not enter lineups the night before thinking you know the team. You likely don’t. Most people don’t. Some managers do weird stuff daily and one day an 8 hitter can be batting lead off based just on the whims of the guy in charge.

    There’s certain things that can guide you if you must enter a LU the night before (the 4th OF may always play against a lefty or going with a backup catcher the day after a night game) but still, these are guides not rules.

    To be safe, wait for the lineup to come out and then build.

    2. That’s slate specific and baseball chalk isn’t like NBA or NFL chalk. Twice a week Mike Trout and Mookie Betts will get zeros. Cody Bellinger might go 11 days in between homers. Scott Kingery could get called back up and hit 6 homers in 4 days. Say it with me now … it’s baseball.

    But there is some chalk. Especially early in the season you will see a huge bias towards major market teams, especially the Yankees and Red Sox. The Rockies at home are another one that gets crazy high ownership. If all things are equal you probably want to take the player from the less popular team, but if JD Martinez has 7 RBI and the Red Sox score 15 runs on opening day you can set your watch to him being 50% owned the next day.

    What’s important is not trying to follow the chalk but have the ability to shrug off days when the chalk hits.

    Another thing to keep in mind is that on offense this is essentially a game of guess the homerun. On FD a homer is 18.7 points last I checked. If you get 1 homer from every player you’re gonna win thousands of dollars that day and I don’t really care who else does what.

    Unlike NBA or NFL where volume is everything in MLB almost every single starting player will have 4-5 opportunities. Of course a leadoff hitter will potentially have more than a 9 hole hitter but the margin is small. This isn’t a case where Ben Simmons will play 38 minutes and Furkan Korkmaz will play 16. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto and whatever bum CF the Phillies are playing that day will all have nearly the same opportunities.

    But, where the magic comes in is that a player who is often labeled a bum (like Korkmaz) can every few days be put in a lineup spot in front of a Harper type on a manager’s whim and get that 18.7 at minimum price while 35% of the field is paying 2.5 times that for Bryce.

    Not sure if I cleared it up for made it more confusing for you. Please let me know if you have other questions. I love the helping new players part of the season.

    Wow thanks a lot for the info! This is very interesting and I feel like it can give beginners a chance. Especially the point about homeruns.

  • thedkexperience

    @jv21 said...

    Wow thanks a lot for the info! This is very interesting and I feel like it can give beginners a chance. Especially the point about homeruns.

    Beginners absolutely have a better chance at MLB than most others. Here are a few more tips.

    1 – Listen to guys like @pandamonius. He’s smart. There are a lot of people on this free forum who have years of good results. While some people may differ on their approach you’ll get a lot from just this daily thread.

    2 – The main reason why MLB DFS can be beginner friendly is more because it’s professional unfriendly. No matter how bad he plays it’s highly unlikely that James Harden will leave a basketball game with 0 points, especially in a good match up. Meanwhile, Mike Trout can be facing the worst left handed starter on the worst team in the American League and hit 4 straight 110 MPH outs. Just the way the game is. Doesn’t mean playing Trout was suboptimal. It just means he got hit by variance. Always keep this in mind instead of beating yourself up over a bad pick.

    3 – I’m a big proponent of playing single entry DFS in general but absolutely in baseball. Any edge that the pros would have here will be in volume. They can eat that Trout 0 in 50 lineups because they have 100 with Mookie in them instead. Don’t try to beat the pros at their own game. Put in 1 lineup per slate. Make it the best lineup you can and move on. It’s baseball … you absolutely need to keep in mind that there will be something like 800-1000 slates in one season. In football you probably get like 80-100. Keep it small, and keep it simple. Especially while you learn.

    4 – Get your pitcher right. I prefer FD to DK for baseball only just because it’s a one pitcher format. I don’t care how much you need to spend to get your guy right, just do it. Also, while it’s great to nail the chalk best pitcher that day, getting 38 from Kershaw when someone else gets 51 from Bieber won’t kill you. You can make it up on offense with one swing. Just do what you need to so you don’t have a gas can score you negative 6 on a day when your offense hits 6 homers.

    So in a nutshell … 1 LU a slate, set it after the real line ups come out, and don’t get cute with your pitcher ever.

    5 – Pay a lot of attention to platoon players getting spot started as their price won’t be correct due to having 2/3rds of the games off.

    6 – stacking lineups is wildly popular. Using leadoff hitters is wildly popular. There is a reason these things are popular but do not be afraid to go out on a limb. I’m not saying playing 8 hole hitters as that’s a negative EV long term play, but don’t worry about following your gut in any given day either. Almost everyone knows “the math” at this point. Getting caught up in wind velocities and VoRP is all well and good but no one else can account for your gut feelings on a spreadsheets. There is a reason that baseball was played that way for a hundred years.

    7 – Download the RG app right now for lineups and weather.

    8 – Repeat step 7 if your ignored it.

    9 – No seriously, Kevin Roth is the weather GOAT and you will spend all summer playing fantasy weatherman so let the smartest guy in the room do the work for you.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    With a strong chilly wind blowing in at Wrigley and Philly plus the fear of the new ball effect making those games an easy fade for this over-weighter of the weather and now apparently the new ball, I’m left with 7 games on the DK 2:10 Classic to choose from. I never get Coors right so of course I’ll be going there. And I like the Padres to abuse Sad Bum. And don’t sleep on the Royals offense this year. (BIG) If Benintendi can rediscover his swing in the 2 hole between Merrifield and Mondesi that whole lineup will take off. With the cold weather making it hard for the outdoor SPs to grip and the 4 dome SPs all opening the season with solid springs behind them, cause spring does matter, I’ll be mixing those 4 with the Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Royals and Rangers. Like the fields they play on, my teams will be lined with chalk.

  • thedkexperience

    @HoodsFromTheWood said...

    With a strong chilly wind blowing in at Wrigley and Philly plus the fear of the new ball effect making those games an easy fade for this over-weighter of the weather and now apparently the new ball, I’m left with 7 games on the DK 2:10 Classic to choose from. I never get Coors right so of course I’ll be going there. And I like the Padres to abuse Sad Bum. And don’t sleep on the Royals offense this year. (BIG) If Benintendi can rediscover his swing in the 2 hole between Merrifield and Mondesi that whole lineup will take off. With the cold weather making it hard for the outdoor SPs to grip and the 4 dome SPs all opening the season with solid springs behind them, cause spring does matter, I’ll be mixing those 4 with the Dodgers, Rockies, Padres, Royals and Rangers. Like the fields they play on, my teams will be lined with chalk.

    Are we sure that Philly wind is blowing in?*

    • Please note the perfect example of what I meant by playing fantasy weatherman.

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @thedkexperience said...

    Are we sure that Philly wind is blowing in?*

    • Please note the perfect example of what I meant by playing fantasy weatherman.

    LOL I got that info from your “weather GOAT’s” page.

  • maddysdaddy0914

    With the new ball in place, I’m thinking there may be more benefit than in the past using stacks that are able to string together hits for runs as opposed to being so home run dependant.

    I’m curious to see how this all plays out.

    This probably comes back to bite me, but I’m likely staying away from Coors on opening day. Have a few one offs. But don’t see myself over exposing to that game.

    Hood, just my two cents, and I’m with you on the royals and Padres, but I’m not sure I see Keller as a pitcher I want to target. Especially with what’s left of the Rangers lineup.

  • Southie777

    Just to add to what others have said. I liken MLB DFS to NHL DFS, whereas I think NFL DFS is more like NBA DFS. What I mean is, as someone else already mentioned, you can play a Yelich at $5600 one day and you just catch him on a bad day and he goes 0-5, then the next day he goes 5-5 with 3 HR’s and 8 RBI’s. Kind of like in NHL, you can play Connor McDavid one night and he literally blocks one shot and gets you 1.6 points, then the next night play him and he goes off for 3 goals and 2 assists. Whereas in football, you might play Julio Jones and he might catch you 10 passes for 150 and 2 TD’s or he might only get you 6 catches for 70 yards and no TD’s, but he’s very unlikely to get you anything close to a 0. Just like NBA, Jokic might get you 40 or 80, but barring foul trouble, injury, or ejection, you’re very unlikely to get less than that. Long story short, there’s a LOT of variance. You just have to try to embrace it or you will lose your mind. Beyond that, totally agree on SP. I love to occasionally nail a Pablo Lopez at $6800 and he goes off for 7 IP and 11 K’s, but nothing more frustrating than getting cute at SP, having your offense go off, and seeing your SP went 2/3 of an inning and gave up 7 ER. Totally agree about HR-hunting. SB can be undervalued at times, they’re just SO hard to predict. Definitely agree about listening to Kevin Roth. I’ve been playing for years now and the only times I’ve gotten screwed by PPD’s were when I didn’t have time to research things as much as I should’ve and somehow missed the weather news or a few times when Roth made it clear there was risk with a game, I took the chance, and it bit me in the arse. He’s very good. If you are risk averse, just stay away from the weather games. If you don’t mind risking it, it can pay off. But nothing more frustrating than double-stacking and one stack goes off and the other stack all has red PPD’s next to their names. Also, if you’re a premium member, read CheeseIsGood. He’s extremely thorough and knowledgeable. And he’s funny! I actually look forward to his columns and it’s not just for the baseball knowledge, they’re works of art. Good luck!

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @maddysdaddy0914 said...

    This probably comes back to bite me, but I’m likely staying away from Coors on opening day. Have a few one offs. But don’t see myself over exposing to that game.

    Hood, just my two cents, and I’m with you on the royals and Padres, but I’m not sure I see Keller as a pitcher I want to target. Especially with what’s left of the Rangers lineup.

    I’m not too worried about Keller or the KC bullpen. I think he brings some of his spring problems to the mound and since he’s only gone 13 innings this spring. I don’t think he goes deep. And Texas is cheap lol with some lefty bats having nice springs.

  • thedkexperience

    Not to derail this but I have my dynasty league draft tonight and my team is essentially Mike Trout and multiple bags of poop.

    12×12 scoring

    26 man rosters with 9 keepers (anyone taken 10th round or later can be kept forever which is how I have Trout)

    16 man league

    The long and the short of it is my team is essentially butt cheeks with 1 great player at this point after a season on hold with covid. Like 10 of my players retired.

    Anyway, does anyone have any truly absurdly deep value plays that they want to suggest for me? And by deep I mean like A ball deep. All positions matter (even middle men) so any random ideas might help. 95% of the great players are gone.

    The league is great but I got the covid gipper badly with this one so I need some way out of the box ideas.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @thedkexperience said...

    Not to derail this but I have my dynasty league draft tonight and my team is essentially Mike Trout and multiple bags of poop.

    12×12 scoring

    26 man rosters with 9 keepers (anyone taken 10th round or later can be kept forever which is how I have Trout)

    16 man league

    The long and the short of it is my team is essentially butt cheeks with 1 great player at this point after a season on hold with covid. Like 10 of my players retired.

    Anyway, does anyone have any truly absurdly deep value plays that they want to suggest for me? And by deep I mean like A ball deep. All positions matter (even middle men) so any random ideas might help. 95% of the great players are gone.

    The league is great but I got the covid gipper badly with this one so I need some way out of the box ideas.

    Well, 1st off, I want to point out that agree with all you wrote above from jv21’s question, except that I am smart. If I was up for writing a more in depth post, that’s basically what I would’ve wrote.

    As for this post, I have no idea. It’s hard because we don’t know who is for sure gone in your league. Obviously I can do the math and know you’re digging semi-deep. Like, are guys like Jared Walsh, Ryan Mountcastle, Andres Gimenez, Carter Kieboom, the typers you’re talking about? Or is that even too high or too low?

    You’re probably best off doing an internet search for other peoples opinions. My opinion though would be to when in doubt, take players from teams with expected potent offenses. Even if they’re not elite, they might get some of that run off production.

  • axman15

    @thedkexperience said...

    Not to derail this but I have my dynasty league draft tonight and my team is essentially Mike Trout and multiple bags of poop.

    12×12 scoring

    26 man rosters with 9 keepers (anyone taken 10th round or later can be kept forever which is how I have Trout)

    16 man league

    The long and the short of it is my team is essentially butt cheeks with 1 great player at this point after a season on hold with covid. Like 10 of my players retired.

    Anyway, does anyone have any truly absurdly deep value plays that they want to suggest for me? And by deep I mean like A ball deep. All positions matter (even middle men) so any random ideas might help. 95% of the great players are gone.

    The league is great but I got the covid gipper badly with this one so I need some way out of the box ideas.

    Not sure what level of prospect nut you are, but I love Fangraphs. They haven’t completed their 2021 prospect rankings yet, but all the 2020 prospect stuff is there & there is some real good stuff. One of my favourite websites for baseball.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects

  • thedkexperience

    @Pandamonious said...

    Well, 1st off, I want to point out that agree with all you wrote above from jv21’s question, except that I am smart. If I was up for writing a more in depth post, that’s basically what I would’ve wrote.

    As for this post, I have no idea. It’s hard because we don’t know who is for sure gone in your league. Obviously I can do the math and know you’re digging semi-deep. Like, are guys like Jared Walsh, Ryan Mountcastle, Andres Gimenez, Carter Kieboom, the typers you’re talking about? Or is that even too high or too low?

    You’re probably best off doing an internet search for other peoples opinions. My opinion though would be to when in doubt, take players from teams with expected potent offenses. Even if they’re not elite, they might get some of that run off production.

    Those are good names and definitely the type of guys I was thinking of. My squad is … and please remember 16 teams, 26 roster spots and 24 categories.

    Trout
    Will Smith
    Tommy La Stella
    Jonathan Schoop
    Jorge Solar
    Willians Astudillo
    Martin Perez
    Kenley Jensen
    Ian Kennedy

    I got the 3rd pick. I basically need to decide if I can make the playoffs with only an offense and go reliever heavy or try to salvage a starting pitching staff. It’s ugly. Maybe I can get Jose Abreu or Scherzer at 3. That’s possible. After that no idea.

    I think I’m gonna just keep watching YouTube.

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