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  • bhdevault

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    • Blogger of the Month

    1:10 PM EST : Detroit ( 190 ) at Boston ( -205 ) —- T: 8
    6:10 PM EST : Miami ( 210 ) at Cleveland ( -230 ) —- T: 7.5
    6:40 PM EST : Atlanta ( -106 ) at Cincinnati ( -102 ) —- T: 9
    7:05 PM EST : Arizona ( 115 ) at Pittsburgh ( -125 ) —- T: 7.5
    7:05 PM EST : Chi Sox ( -128 ) at Baltimore ( 118 ) —- T: 10
    7:07 PM EST : SF Giants ( 116 ) at Toronto ( -126 ) —- T: 8
    7:10 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 126 ) at NY Mets ( -136 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:10 PM EST : Kansas City ( 0 ) at Tampa Bay ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:10 PM EST : Detroit ( 156 ) at Boston ( -166 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:45 PM EST : Milwaukee ( 119 ) at St. Louis ( -129 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:05 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( 100 ) at Chi Cubs ( -108 ) —- T: —
    8:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( 120 ) at Houston ( -130 ) —- T: 9.5
    8:40 PM EST : Washington ( -137 ) at Colorado ( 127 ) —- T: 10
    10:07 PM EST : NY Yankees ( -112 ) at LA Angels ( 104 ) —- T: 8.5
    10:07 PM EST : Texas ( 124 ) at Oakland ( -134 ) —- T: 8
    10:10 PM EST : Seattle ( 123 ) at San Diego ( -134 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    Updated with the latest starting lineups…I also came to my senses (I hope) and swapped my Nationals stack with a White Sox stack:

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/mlb-data-detective-best-player-values-apr-23-3013354

    Jeff Hoffman isn’t a good pitcher by any stretch, but with him slated to start instead of Bettis it bumps my app’s projected value for the Nationals lineup below a level that I feel comfortable recommending in terms of value.

    UPDATE: …and I threw in an ultra-contrarian, stomach-turning Giants lefty stack as well. Don’t read if you feel queasy!

  • Ndepompei

    after looking at projected ownership i think ill be throwing in a rays stack and hoping homer bailey starts pitching like himself

  • ezellmt

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    @Ndepompei said...

    after looking at projected ownership i think ill be throwing in a rays stack and hoping homer bailey starts pitching like himself

    Is 10% really enough for you to take that approach? I’m not saying Bailey is a great play or that stacking Rays is dumb, but if his ownership is really 10% (as currently projected), not sure you’re gaining a ton of leverage in stacking Rays.

  • jayzee666

    @murphstahoe said...

    I’m gonna guess you don’t have Ronny Rodriguez

    The REAPER actually Failed me today!
    I had all the right bats and unless the closer blows up Boyd should get the win. I am shocked to say the least, but this just means some serious revenge is in store for tonight!
    I like the White Sox, Rangers and Wash bats, so beware!!

  • Ndepompei

    @ezellmt said...

    Is 10% really enough for you to take that approach? I’m not saying Bailey is a great play or that stacking Rays is dumb, but if his ownership is really 10% (as currently projected), not sure you’re gaining a ton of leverage in stacking Rays.

    I was looking at the lack of ownership on the Rays didn’t look at Homer’s at all

  • mr_papageorgio

    Just to let everyone know, I’m playing Wheeler tonight. I’m on a Jayzee-esque streak of getting chalk pitchers wrong lately so you should all load up on the Phillies.

  • ezellmt

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    @Ndepompei said...

    I was looking at the lack of ownership on the Rays didn’t look at Homer’s at all

    That’s fair. Given the large slate, there will definitely be plenty of underowned teams that can be targeted if you’re looking to get away from BAL/CWS and Coors.

  • txdave41

    @TheDataDetective said...

    Updated with the latest starting lineups…I also came to my senses (I hope) and swapped my Nationals stack with a White Sox stack:

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/mlb-data-detective-best-player-values-apr-23-3013354

    Jeff Hoffman isn’t a good pitcher by any stretch, but with him slated to start instead of Bettis it bumps my app’s projected value for the Nationals lineup below a level that I feel comfortable recommending in terms of value.

    UPDATE: …and I threw in an ultra-contrarian, stomach-turning Giants lefty stack as well. Don’t read if you feel queasy!

    You actually cashed with a Rangers stack? I played the exact same guys and got destroyed last night. Also nailed Zunio, Goldsmith and others and still couldn’t cash a freaking dime. Hopeless.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @txdave41 said...

    You actually cashed with a Rangers stack? I played the exact same guys and got destroyed last night. Also nailed Zunio, Goldsmith and others and still couldn’t cash a freaking dime. Hopeless.

    No, that was about a week ago…I haven’t blogged since last week since I was on vacation.

  • captainwacky

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    @ezellmt said...

    That’s fair. Given the large slate, there will definitely be plenty of underowned teams that can be targeted if you’re looking to get away from BAL/CWS and Coors.

    Correct— it’s not so much leverage as… it’s baseball and if ownership is going to consolidate around like 4-5 stacks, then you probably want all the other ones as a priority. I think the Yankees are in a really good spot; Stratton is horrible, and they have a bunch of cheap no-names who can still get it done. I also like the twins and mets as low owned options, though the Mets struggle at home, so it’s a bit less appealing.

  • captainwacky

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    Also, in line with the DataDetective’s post, I think the Red Sox are are a really good stack.

  • jayzee666

    @captainwacky said...

    Correct— it’s not so much leverage as… it’s baseball and if ownership is going to consolidate around like 4-5 stacks, then you probably want all the other ones as a priority. I think the Yankees are in a really good spot; Stratton is horrible, and they have a bunch of cheap no-names who can still get it done. I also like the twins and mets as low owned options, though the Mets struggle at home, so it’s a bit less appealing.

    They said that about Harvey too! ;)
    Any stack is good if u look to be different.

  • captainwacky

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    @jayzee666 said...

    They said that about Harvey too! ;)
    Any stack is good if u look to be different.

    I mean… Harvey is horrible… it’s baseball, sometimes things don’t really work as planned. In fact, most of the time that’s true. But trying to get things to go as planned with a bunch of people doing the same thing sounds terrible to me in such a volatile game.

  • jtkucheck

    @TheDataDetective said...

    UPDATE: …and I threw in an ultra-contrarian, stomach-turning Giants lefty stack as well. Don’t read if you feel queasy!

    This feels like one of those perfect storm east coast games for Giants… AL ballpark, hitter friendly, pitcher that struggles against LHBs. Probably not going to see 5+ dingers like you might at Coors, but I bet they keep the line moving with 6 LHBs plus Posey, Longo and Pillar.

  • captainwacky

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    I think that’s a reasonable stack, I also reallllly like the Blue Jays lefties in that game.

  • monarch

    Phillies could blow this slate up

  • captainwacky

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    @monarch said...

    Phillies could blow this slate up

    meh. I mean, yes, but they have such a watered down bottom of the order that they can kinda pitch around harper and Wheeler is pretty decent at limiting hard contact. I have more of him than the Phillies, but you’re correct in the sense that they still have guys with huge ceilings and will be very low owned.

  • monarch

    @captainwacky said...

    meh. I mean, yes, but they have such a watered down bottom of the order that they can kinda pitch around harper and Wheeler is pretty decent at limiting hard contact. I have more of him than the Phillies, but you’re correct in the sense that they still have guys with huge ceilings and will be very low owned.

    And they would take out the chalk pitcher in the process. They are overlooked for their ceiling plus a rising implied total.

  • captainwacky

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    @monarch said...

    And they would take out the chalk pitcher in the process. They are overlooked for their ceiling plus a rising implied total.

    Is Wheeler chalk? I don’t really pay much attention to ownership on pitchers, but I’m surprised if that’s the case.

  • monarch

    @captainwacky said...

    Is Wheeler chalk? I don’t really pay much attention to ownership on pitchers, but I’m surprised if that’s the case.

    I’m hearing that Wheeler/Corbin are among the highest owned pitchers on DK tonight. They are the ones I like the most but I put a few Phillies stacks into play. They are not anywhere near my favorite stacks but prices and ownership are really depressed.

  • captainwacky

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    @monarch said...

    I’m hearing that Wheeler/Corbin are among the highest owned pitchers on DK tonight. They are the ones I like the most but I put a few Phillies stacks into play. They are not anywhere near my favorite stacks but prices and ownership are really depressed.

    That’s a fair play, then. I don’t like either of those guys, despite them both being OK options— just a little too difficult of matchups/environments that don’t fit their skillset. Corbin in particular has really struggled in coors because of his pitch mix, and he’s throwing even more sliders this year which bodes worse for him.

  • monarch

    @captainwacky said...

    That’s a fair play, then. I don’t like either of those guys, despite them both being OK options— just a little too difficult of matchups/environments that don’t fit their skillset. Corbin in particular has really struggled in coors because of his pitch mix, and he’s throwing even more sliders this year which bodes worse for him.

    What do you think of the bottom of COL LU? Desmond, Tapia, Butera, Hoffman? That has 0-12 with 6 K’s written all over it. And the hitter before that is a LHB in McMahon. Its not the worst setup for a 8800 Corbin at Coors this time of year.

  • captainwacky

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    @monarch said...

    What do you think of the bottom of COL LU? Desmond, Tapia, Butera, Hoffman? That has 0-12 with 6 K’s written all over it. And the hitter before that is a LHB in McMahon. Its not the worst setup for a 8800 Corbin at Coors this time of year.

    I actually think pretty highly of Tapia as a talent, but that might not play out to him threatening Corbin today. Desmond is hitting poorly, but crushes lefties historically, but I’ll still go small edge to corbin. Butera and Hoffman should probably just try to get Corbin to miss 4 times, so there’s your free K’s. If corbin can survive the middle of the order, he should have a nice outing. That is definitely not an easy task though given the pitch types and story/arenado, however.

  • captainwacky

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    I think an interesting comparison to Corbin would be Luke Weaver or Bailey— both have good K upside, but can turn themselves into a mess. They also have some pretty easy spots near the bottom of the order… and then they cost way less while sacrificing a bit of ceiling and giving a bit of floor. I prefer that route, as horrifying as it sounds. (and obviously I’m not comparing them as real life players or even typical DFS assets, Corbin is a stud, just not usually in coors).

  • monarch

    Agree…if he can keep Blackmon off base he can challenge Story/Arenado occasionally because he knows he is getting the run support. No way he gets through unscathed but 7IP, three or four ER and seven Ks seems like a reasonable outcome. Also a scary bet

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