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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:05 PM EST : St. Louis ( -111 ) at Washington ( 103 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:05 PM EST : Detroit ( 0 ) at Philadelphia ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:10 PM EST : Oakland ( 142 ) at Boston ( -154 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : Cleveland ( -200 ) at Miami ( 183 ) —- T: 7
    7:10 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -123 ) at NY Mets ( 114 ) —- T: 8
    7:20 PM EST : San Diego ( -102 ) at Atlanta ( -107 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:40 PM EST : Houston ( -163 ) at Minnesota ( 150 ) —- T: 8
    7:40 PM EST : Colorado ( -108 ) at Milwaukee ( -102 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:05 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 105 ) at Texas ( -113 ) —- T: 10.5
    8:10 PM EST : Baltimore ( 135 ) at Chi Sox ( -146 ) —- T: 9
    8:15 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -174 ) at Kansas City ( 160 ) —- T: 7.5
    9:40 PM EST : NY Yankees ( 123 ) at Arizona ( -133 ) —- T: 8.5
    9:45 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( -155 ) at SF Giants ( 143 ) —- T: 7
    10:07 PM EST : Toronto ( 127 ) at LA Angels ( -138 ) —- T: 9
    10:10 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( -139 ) at Seattle ( 128 ) —- T: 8.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Ndepompei

    @frugal said...

    Doesn’t the wind always blow in when there’s wind in Arlington?

    yeah weather report says that’s the prevailing wind so doubt it effects things too much

  • moosedrool

    Bottom half of the A’s lineup looks good again tonight. All under 3k on FD

  • killz4thrillz

    We have a huge 15 game slate tonight. I want to try to avoid information overload so I am only going to discuss anything that really stands out.

    Pitchers:

    Trevor Bauer= He is the most expensive pitcher on the slate tonight Today he gets the Marlins who are just terrible and don’t hit for power. The only guy on the Marlins with an ISO over .170 against 94+ mph fastballs is Granderson and he has been hot garbage so far this year. Bauer has a 32% K rate vs RHB’s this season. The Marlins have very little LHB depth on the bench so Bauer is going to see a bunch of RHB’s tonight. One thing that is a tiny bit concerning is that the Marlins RHB’s only have a 20% K rate. Regardless, Bauer is in a great spot tonight. If he has his good stuff, I think a complete game is on the table tonight. The only thing I don’t like is his price. He needs about 35 DK points to hit value. If I fade him tonight it will only be because of salary, not matchup.

    Sandy Alcantara= Could face 8 LHB’s today. He has a 60% ground ball rate against LHB’s which is elite. He also has a 17% K rate on the season which sucks but he’s cheap on DK. The guy thrown 95+ mph and has only given up 1 HR all year. The Indians haven’t been very good this year. Normally I wouldn’t play a guy with no K upside but I’m intrigued in this spot. My guess is that he will be low owned so for the price, I don’t think he is a bad play tonight.

    Chris Paddack= 30% K rate and absolutely owns RHB’s (.022 ISO against.) The Braves are a dangerous offense tho. I’ll pass on Paddack tonight.

    Zack Greinke- Greinke has looked really good this year. He has a 27% K rate overall. He faces a Yankees team today that only K’s 16% of the time. I assume that’s the lowest team K rate in baseball right now. This is another matchup of a high K% pitcher vs a low K% team. I just can’t justify the price for Greinke tonight vs a team that will suppress his K total. I’ll pass.

    Hitters:

    Matt Adams= Wainwright gets hit hard by LHB’s (.359 ISO) and Adams hits RHP hard. .256 ISO with a 52% flyball rate. Slightly concerned that Waino doesn’t give up a ton of fly balls.

    Eugenio Suarez=.438 ISO and 62% hard hit rate against LHP. These are insane numbers. Here’s the kicker, Vargas gives up a 61% hard hit rate to RHB’s. Suarez appears to be a must play with huge HR potential. I think a Cincy stack is in play also but be sure to include Suarez if you stack it.

    Joey Gallo=.422 ISO and 71% Hard Hit % against RHP. Lyle has a 57% fly ball rate against LHB’s. Love this matchup for Gallo. HR potential today.

    Betts and Chavis= Betts has a .295 ISO against RHP and Chavis has a .409 ISO against RHP. Brooks has a 51% fly ball rate vs RHB’s. Oddly enough, J.D. Martinez is not in a good spot. He doesn’t hit RHP very well. I would fade Martinez as a one off but you could include him in a stack. Red Sox are a nice stack option tonight.

    Gary Sanchez=.388 ISO and 53% hard hit rate against RHP. He also has a MASSIVE .769 ISO, 54% hard hit rate, and 101 mph exit velocity against 89 mph fastballs. That is a pitch Greinke throws 44% of the time to RHB’s. Sanchez dong incoming tonight.

    Mike Trout= In 50 BBEs vs a cutter, Trout has a .565 ISO against that pitch. Bucholz throws that pitch 40% of the time.

    Seatlle Stack= Ill spare you all the numbers, just know that the top 5 guys in the order crush LHP. Hamels doesn’t give up a lot of fly balls and he has been solid so far but I love all these power guys for Seattle tonight. Emphasis on Bruce and Encarnacion.

    Toronto=Stack option. Minor leaguer being called up for his first start today for the Angels. I love to stack against newbies. Apparently this kid does have pretty good stuff. Could be a trap.

    The Pirates and Rangers game has a total of 11 which is high. There are also possible weather issues. I think a game stack is in order. If we can get the game with the highest run total at suppressed ownership, we do it. If you need cheap filler options tonight I think Pittsburgh batters make sense. I would avoid all pitching in this game. Keep an eye on the weather.

  • moosedrool

    Sox v Orioles ppd

  • hassman

    BAL/CWS game postponed

  • frugal

    Well crap, NWS has issued a Tornado watch for 25 Texas counties including Tarrant where the ballpark is until 11PM CST. I don’t know what their policy is on warnings such as this before the weather actually hits. The radar projection I’m looking at from the weather channel has storms projected between 5 and 7PM so they could get things off with a minor delay. Of course if there’s significant hail or a tornado touches down things will get postponed.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    Updated with the latest lineups…I also replaced my Baltimore stack with a Pittsburgh stack:

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/mlb-data-detective-best-player-values-apr-30-3018099

  • moosedrool

    @frugal said...

    Well crap, NWS has issued a Tornado watch for 25 Texas counties including Tarrant where the ballpark is until 11PM CST. I don’t know what their policy is on warnings such as this before the weather actually hits. The radar projection I’m looking at from the weather channel has storms projected between 5 and 7PM so they could get things off with a minor delay. Of course if there’s significant hail or a tornado touches down things will get postponed.

    yup, obviously we’ve been on this game for awhile. Too risky for me in the $450 400k on FD.

  • tratow

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Another bites the dust.. See ya Rays!

  • moosedrool

    @TheDataDetective said...

    Updated with the latest lineups…I also replaced my Baltimore stack with a Pittsburgh stack:

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/mlb-data-detective-best-player-values-apr-30-3018099

    so is Paddack the play over Bauer? Trying to figure out why you don’t have an Angels stack in your “My App’s Top-Value Hitter Stacks”? Thanks again for the work.

  • moosedrool

    Anyone like a Wil Meyers/Machado combo?

  • Pandamonious

    • 509

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #76

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @moosedrool said...

    Anyone like a Wil Meyers/Machado combo?

    Not as much as a like the France/Reyes combo with savings on DK. I think you’re on FD though, but either way I think the Padres are a sneaky good spot.

  • moosedrool

    @Pandamonious said...

    Not as much as a like the France/Reyes combo with savings on DK. I think you’re on FD though, but either way I think the Padres are a sneaky good spot.

    just noticed they moved their lineup around. Reyes 2 / France in the 5 spot.

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @moosedrool said...

    so is Paddack the play over Bauer? Trying to figure out why you don’t have an Angels stack in your “My App’s Top-Value Hitter Stacks”? Thanks again for the work.

    I just don’t have LAA projected for good value today. Buchholz is one of the stingier pitchers on this slate

  • moosedrool

    @TheDataDetective said...

    I just don’t have LAA projected for good value today. Buchholz is one of the stingier pitchers on this slate

    I’d have to look but, has Buch got out of the 5th inning yet this year? Big Rays fan here…when he pitched against us we hit him hard (just right at players, though). That said, putting some money up tonight and looking at all the angles. Again, thanks for your input.

  • tratow

    • 2015 DraftKings FFWC Finalist

    Why can’t I get off Nationals..?? Gonna be a long, painful night :(

  • jtkucheck

    Excited no one has mentioned the Cardinals at all.

  • biga0787

    @jtkucheck said...

    Excited no one has mentioned the Cardinals at all.

    Shhhh.

  • Renodog

    Thunder and rain has begun in Dallas.

  • biga0787

    I’m taking 2-5 stack hopefully they can continue scoring runs and get to Sanchez and the terrible nats bullpen

  • homers1226

    @jtkucheck said...

    Excited no one has mentioned the Cardinals at all.

    i just stacked the crap out of them 1 lu

    hopefully not a rain out

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @moosedrool said...

    I’d have to look but, has Buch got out of the 5th inning yet this year? Big Rays fan here…when he pitched against us we hit him hard (just right at players, though). That said, putting some money up tonight and looking at all the angles. Again, thanks for your input.

    Sorry, I should have said over the past couple seasons he has been one of the stingier pitchers. I’ll admit that he got hit hard the last 2 games and it might continue tonight (Vegas certainly thinks so), but on a large slate I see better options. Will be curious to see how it plays out. Good luck!

  • murphstahoe

  • moosedrool

    @murphstahoe said...

    Brandon Crawford is 2400?

    just 2k on FD…still too much. If you’re looking for value at SS, Arcia isn’t horrible.

  • NYGfan1983

    @moosedrool said...

    just 2k on FD…still too much. If you’re looking for value at SS, Arcia isn’t horrible.

    just hit a rbi double and im happy

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