MLB FORUM

Comments

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    1:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( -141 ) at Detroit ( +130 ) — T: 8.5
    4:05 PM EST : Atlanta ( +111 ) at Washington ( -120 ) — T: 8.0
    4:07 PM EST : Houston ( -102 ) at LA Angels ( -106 ) — T: 9.0
    6:35 PM EST : Baltimore ( +245 ) at NY Yankees ( -275 ) — T: 8.0
    6:40 PM EST : St. Louis ( -107 ) at Miami ( -101 ) — T: 8.0
    6:40 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( +140 ) at Cincinnati ( -152 ) — T: 9.0
    7:05 PM EST : NY Mets ( -123 ) at Philadelphia ( +114 ) — T: 9.0
    7:10 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -138 ) at Boston ( +127 ) — T: 9.0
    7:40 PM EST : Milwaukee ( -104 ) at Chi Cubs ( -104 ) — T:
    8:05 PM EST : Toronto ( -119 ) at Texas ( +110 ) — T: 9.5
    8:40 PM EST : Arizona ( +107 ) at Colorado ( -116 ) — T: 10.5
    9:40 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( -158 ) at Oakland ( +145 ) — T: 8.0
    10:10 PM EST : SF Giants ( +184 ) at San Diego ( -203 ) — T: 7.5
    10:10 PM EST : Chi Sox ( -147 ) at Seattle ( +135 ) — T: 7.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • ifthethunder

    Looks like the weather will be carp in Colorado.

    ARI @ COL

    Rain in the area, especially early, turning over to a rain/snow mix later in the night, though that would likely be after the game. Looks to me like the worst of the rain will be clear or clearing by first pitch, so I expect them to get this game in, even if they need to late start to do it. The flip side of this coin is what I’ll call the “misery-index”, and it’s quite high with wet weather, temps in the 40s, and feels-like temps in the 30s… so a “literally no fans are coming to this game we might as well PPD it” postponement is definitely on the table. I’m starting it at YELLOW/ORNG, and will lower to YLW if it looks like they are going to make an attempt to play (because I think an attempt is all that’s needed to get the game in). Also: cold with winds blowing in from center, pretty great pitching weather other than the whole “it’s Coors and the weather barely matters it’s always great hitting” thing.” – Kevin Roth
    ~

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    Well, overall yesterday was OK. Brewers and Rays disappointed and Red Sox blew up, but everything else sort of fell in place….So, anyway we’ll try this again. The nice thing about once we get past the opening game of the series we know who the umps are for each game well in advance, which isn’t a big deal, but does sometimes kicks me to one side of the fence, when I’m on it.

    Chase Anderson is historically a reverse splits RHP, who struggled against both sides of the plate in last years shortened season. The Mets will probably throw several LHB’s at him, which really could go either way. To me this is kind of a take it or leave it spot. I have next to no interest in Anderson here, as this Mets line up is pretty strong, and he just doesn’t have enough overall upside to take the risk. Mets bats might be worthwhile depending on what else we find.

    Stroman missed all of last season, but we know he’s a solid, probably above average pitcher who relies more on groundballs than strikeouts. He was solid in spring so I don’t think we have to worry too much about him not being ready here. Due to Stroman’s lack of upside and price I have little to no interest in him here against this solid Phils lineup. At the same time I respect Stroman enough and the Mets expected strong pen to leave them alone here as well.

  • fresh56

    quick question how accurate are optimizers in baseball?

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    Martin Perez isn’t very good. He couldn’t even get groundballs anymore last season. On the plus side he doesn’t give up a ton of hard contact, but either way he shouldn’t do well here and Boston’s bullpen should be average at best. I’ll be going right back to the Rays.

    Well, despite yesterdays game I’m still not sold on this Boston offense being anything more than average as a whole. I’m certainly not going here with Glasnow on the mound after what I’d expect to be an outlier result. Glasnow is one of the better arms on the slate and the most expensive one on FD and 3rd most on DK. He’ll certainly be on my radar, but I’m guessing there will be better value on FD, not that I wouldn’t have any.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    Glasnow is one of the better arms on the slate and the most expensive one on FD and 3rd most on DK. He’ll certainly be on my radar, but I’m guessing there will be better value on FD, not that I wouldn’t have any

    At first glance I wanted to lock Glasnow in, and I also don’t think the RedSox offense is very good.

    However, the Sox got to him twice last year, and the 9 total and close-ish odds, make me think twice. I’ll probably have some, yet not too much 🤷‍♂️

    Edit…projections like him though, and they’re often accurate, so maybe I’ll have a little more than some.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    After coming up as a starter then moving to the pen the last couple seasons, Peralta is getting another shot as a starter. He’s a reverse splits RHP, with a ton of K upside, but some walk and hard contact downside. I’m definitely a little worried about the walks and hard contact, especially with the wind blowing out, but it doesn’t look too intense and I the K upside is off the charts here. I wish he was a little cheaper on DK, but it’s manageable and I think he’s in play on FD as a cheap option for any line ups where you want to load up on bats.

    The Brewers are definitely in a funk to start the season. Trevor Williams looked like an all-star, and they’ve only scored 5 runs in their last 3 games, but it’s early. Alzolay is a pretty decent young arm who struggled in 2019 in a limited spell in the bigs and was really just OK in triple-A. Last season though, albeit in just 21 1/3 big league innings was strong with a 3.35 xFIP, 33% K-rate, but 54% hard contact and 15% BB rate. One would expect him to get better as he goes, but it’s hard to deal with small samples. He also struggled in spring with 10 runs and 4 walks in just 7 2/3 innings. With the absurd rate at which the Brewers are striking out this season, with Alzolay’s sparkling 33% K rate last season, I’m tempted to grab some, but I’m also bullish on these Brewers. I also tend to, like with the Rays, when I get on a team and they fail me, I like to go right back to them. So, I’m not sure I’ll have Alzolay, but I’m definitely into Brewers bats.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    At first glance I wanted to lock Glasnow in, and I also don’t think the RedSox offense is very good.

    However, the Sox got to him twice last year, and the 9 total and close-ish odds, make me think twice. I’ll probably have some, yet not too much 🤷‍♂️

    Edit…projections like him though, and they’re often accurate, so maybe I’ll have a little more than some.

    I don’t really care much about BVP, but I look, and seems like Glasnow has got the better of them overall. JD is 3 of 9 with a HR and that’s about it. So, not sure how they got to him twice. Maybe guys who aren’t there anymore. All it takes is a couple walks and a couple well timed hits though, so I guess it’s not how many hits or walks, but when. Either way, yeah I’m not 100% sold on him. I’m just kind of going game by game. I’m guessing I’ll like Giolito more. Maybe Darvish, won’t really know until I dive in a bit more.

  • wmudude24

    Thanks for these write-ups Panda. Very helpful.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @fresh56 said...

    quick question how accurate are optimizers in baseball?

    They’re OK for what they are. Obviously it’s about the projections, some are better than others. You also need to know when and how to add the human element to it. Also, of course MLB has huge levels of variance for hitters, so just because a hitter projects well, doesn’t mean he’s going to smash.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    I don’t really care much about BVP

    I wasn’t looking at BVP per se, just his two games versus Boston last year, where he gave up 4 and 5 runs. It’s a pretty similar team.

    He still did K a bunch of guys, which is why I’m interested.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    Dane Dunning made 7 starts last season for the White Sox (He was traded to Texas in the Lance Lynn deal) and was solid with a 4.19 xFIP, 24% K-rate, and just 28% HC allowed. If you recall he was electric his first couple starts, then sort of faded off. He’s considered a decent prospect that’ll be a legit 4th starter, so nothing special, nothing terrible. Really, I have no opinion on the guy. He’s not expected to pitch deep here and DK has him listed an opener, but they had Lyles listed the same way, and he went on to pitch 5 2/3 innings, so who knows? Anyway, Dunning only pitched 8 1/3 innings in spring, so there’s probably some validity to it. Basically, due to the uncertainty here, I have no interest in Dunning. As for the Jays, not knowing what Texas is going to do, gives me some pause, but we’re dealing with a really talented line up with the highest total on the slate outside of Coors, and I really have no reason to think they can’t hit here.

    Tanner Roark used to be a decent ground ball pitcher, but the wheels have completely fallen off, and he just gets worse every year. He struggled in spring too. This isn’t an overly potent Texas offense, but I am of the belief that unlike good pitching beating good hitting, bad hitting will trump bad pitching more often than not. After Roark the Jays project to have a pretty average pen, so I’m down with some Rangers stacks. I don’t think it matters which sides of the plate you take hitters from either.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Njsum1 said...

    I wasn’t looking at BVP per se, just his two games versus Boston last year, where he gave up 4 and 5 runs. It’s a pretty similar team.

    He still did K a bunch of guys, which is why I’m interested.

    No, I know, I just mean looking at the BVP you wouldn’t think he’d gotten hit around ever by the Sox, and certainly not twice.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    So, as ifthethunder pointed out up top, per RG weatherman Kevin Roth, we might have some weather issues at Coors tonight. Even if the game goes as planned, it’s going to be cold and wet, which doesn’t sound good for run production. So, this leaves us in an interesting spot. I usually find myself on Coors much more often than not, but I especially love low owned Coors. No idea at this point if these bats will be lower owned than usual, but the potential is there. The prices are pretty fair here too, especially for the Diamondbacks.

    Anyway, let me get this out the way first. I’m not playing Luke Weaver. After a promising start to his career he completely fell off, had a mini resurgence in 2019, before completely falling back off last year. For what it’s worth (not much) he was abysmal in spring, giving up 21 hits and 14 ER’s in 14 2/3 IP. Oh, and just 4.9 HR/9. Arizona also projects to have a bottom tier bullpen, so yeah, I’ll have Rockies bats.

    Marquez is good, not great, probably very good. I’ll admit his price on DK is tempting. As good as Marquez is, he still has a career 5.06 ERA in Coors, compared to 3.51 on the road. That home ERA is actually even worse when looking at just the last 2 seasons.

    So, anyway, just because Marquez is a solid pitcher, and this D-Backs line up lacks major thump, they can certainly get on the board plenty here. The Rockies should also have one of the worst pens in baseball again, so I’ll definitely also have ‘Zona bats heavily.

  • CharlieDontSurf

    Thanks Panda. Great information.

  • CharlieDontSurf

    I will be stacking the Jays/Rangers game today. I think Kirk will start for Toronto as Janssen took a pitch to the knee. I will also stack the Rays.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    So, Kershaw struggled in his first start, but it was Coors, he also struggled mightily in Spring, but you know, it’s spring, and it’s Kershaw. You could make an argument for a super low owned A’s stack and hope Kershaw continues to struggle, and in something like max entering the 5 cent Piggy Bank on FD, I might throw in a couple, but overall I think you’re best of just trusting Kershaw.

    Chris Bassitt isn’t bad, but I’m not using any average pitchers against the Dodgers. The A’s bullpen is supposed to be below average this year too, and the A’s haven’t given up less than 8 runs in any of their 5 games this year. There’s enough solid spots tonight, I don’t feel like I have to have Dodgers, especially with their prices, but it’s hard to at least consider the best offense in baseball against an average pitcher on any slate.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    So, Yu and I have this one of those weird DFS relationships, where when I use him, he usually has an off start, and when I don’t is when he’s on point and cruises. The Giants have the lowest implied total on the board, and the Giants average at best offense suggests Darvish should cruise here. Glasnow, Giolito, and even Peralta have more K upside based on their skills and match up, with him being the most expensive option on DK and 2nd most on FD, I’m not overly enthused here, but if mass entering, I’ll have exposure. No interest in Giants bats.

    Aaron Sanchez the longtime Blue Jay is returning after missing last season with shoulder surgery. We last saw him in 2019 with Houston (traded there from Toronto near the deadline). Anyway, Sanchez was once a promising pitcher, who due to injuries throughout his career has fallen quite hard, and was terrible in 2019 (5.29 xFIP, 39% HC, 11% BB). He also didn’t pitch much this spring, so I wouldn’t really expect anything here (even if he’s going well, I doubt he goes far). Basicallly, I have no fears of Sanchez here. The Giants pen isn’t anything to worry about either. It looks like the Padres will be without Tatis for a while, but it’s still a pretty solid line up. I’m interested, but not in love here. I see Padres are more of a mini-stack or get some of the value in Pham, Cronenworth or the bottom of the order where needed.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    So, Giolito last year had a 3.34 xFIP and a 33.7% K-rate. Todays Mariners projected line up struck out 29.1% of the time against RHP last season. That’s really all we need to know. It also helps to know Giolito was solid in his 1st start and threw 87 pitches. Giolito will most likely be my highest owned pitcher and I want no part of the Mariners.

    I can’t think of a more boom or bust all over the place pitcher as James Paxton. When he’s on he’s on. When he’s not he can get the hook quick. Overall things didn’t go well for Paxton in New York, so now he’s back in Seattle. He didn’t pitch a ton in spring, but when he did he was sharp. This is really for both sides, what I wrote initially, it’s boom or bust for both sides. Due to Seattle’s projected bad pen, I tend to side with the Sox here, since I’m not expecting Paxton to pitch deep in the game.

  • ifthethunder

    @Pandamonious said...

    So, Yu and I have this one of those weird DFS relationships, where when I use him, he usually has an off start, and when I don’t is when he’s on point and cruises.

    So many basketball players are like that for me, I’m completely tilted on the sport. Thank dawg for baseball!
    ~

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    So…

    On DK for me it’s Giolito, Glasnow, Darvish, Peralta for sure. I might have a little Alzolay, and might have a little Paxton. Anything can happen, but between skill level, price, and match up, I just have a really hard time going anywhere else.

    On FD for me it’s, Giolito and Peralta as my top two, then I’ll have a little Glasnow, and Darvish. I doubt I’ll mess with Paxton there, and it’s possible I might get some Stroman there as his price is a bit more appropriate.

    For bats,

    I’ll definitely be in on Coors if the game doesn’t get PPD, Rays, Rangers, Jays, Brewers are my favorites.

    If I had to rank them it’d probably be Rockies, Diamondbacks, Jays, Brewers, Rays. I’ll probably get my Rangers exposure in smaller stacks. I’ll also try to work in some Dodgers, but they might just be too expensive for full stacks here. Then on the fringes of my exposures will probably be some White Sox and Padres.

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 259

      RG Overall Ranking

    Idk about Peralta, is he going to be popular? Seems like the chances of him pitching 5+ innings are not great.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    Idk about Peralta, is he going to be popular? Seems like the chances of him pitching 5+ innings are not great.

    I don’t think he’s going to be unpopular. He might be the chalky SP2. I could see Anderson getting some ownership. Then people playing the double aces role, especially with Glasnow and Giolito since neither are crazily priced.

    Not sure why he’s any less likely to go 5 innings here then any of those other cheaper SP2 options.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    Are you going to be trying to just jam in 2 aces on DK? Is there a different cheaper pitcher you prefer?

  • grb4079

    @Pandamonious said...

    Are you going to be trying to just jam in 2 aces on DK? Is there a different cheaper pitcher you prefer?

    I have Yu and Giolito on DK. With some Texas hitters. Lineup doesn’t look amazing with names but I’ll be trying it.

  • ifthethunder

    @Pandamonious said...

    Are you going to be trying to just jam in 2 aces on DK? Is there a different cheaper pitcher you prefer?

    I already have a Kershaw – Giolito lineup. Will mix and match from there for my 4 – 5 l.u.s.
    ~

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).