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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    6:35 PM EST : Baltimore ( 211 ) at NY Yankees ( -231 ) —- T: 9
    7:05 PM EST : Milwaukee ( 0 ) at Philly ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:10 PM EST : Houston ( -150 ) at Detroit ( 138 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:40 PM EST : LA Angels ( 136 ) at Minnesota ( -147 ) —- T: 9
    8:10 PM EST : Cleveland ( -147 ) at Chi Sox ( 136 ) —- T: 8.5
    9:40 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 147 ) at Arizona ( -159 ) —- T: 8.5
    10:10 PM EST : Oakland ( 111 ) at Seattle ( -121 ) —- T: 8.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • linesrc

    Does Rotogrinders have favorable umpire data?

  • noddy

    Any weather issues tonight other than ny? I’m at work until 9 and can’t really check.

  • Jonas137

    @eatmyturf23 said...

    Did you write this the way you wanted? :)

    Against a good pitcher, I’d always prefer a good offense over a mediocre one!

    Yeah, Houston vs Boyd or ChiSox vs Biebs, I’ll side with Houston if trying to be different

  • me_mike84

    @cjs5555 said...

    stacking is less important now than a few years ago since everyone hits HRs all the time now. like yesterday you were basically sunk unless you picked springer and bregman and their 2 HRs each at >20% ownership, didn’t need a stack to do that. that said, it’s still a favored strategy due to the positive leverage you can gain via the progression of batters. it’s really hard to pick 8 random guys together who go off

    thank you very much. i have two min hitters and two oak hitters and the rest are all 1 offs. i might do one more entry with some heavier stacking

  • TheDataDetective

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Pandamonious said...

    My favorite offenses in order are, Diamondbacks, Indians

    Looks like we’re on the same page tonight…

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/mlb-data-detective-best-player-values-may-13-3028187

  • Njsum1

    @cjs5555 said...

    stacking is less important now than a few years ago since everyone hits HRs all the time now. like yesterday you were basically sunk unless you picked springer and bregman and their 2 HRs each at >20% ownership, didn’t need a stack to do that. that said, it’s still a favored strategy due to the positive leverage you can gain via the progression of batters. it’s really hard to pick 8 random guys together who go off

    Don’t think many people were using Bregman and Springer one offs. If you had them both you very likely had a Stros stack.

  • cjs5555

    @noddy said...

    Any weather issues tonight other than ny? I’m at work until 9 and can’t really check.

    Roth expects a late start w/ clean play, or start earlier in some light rain in NY. He doesn’t note any other material issues except it’s cold (high 40s) in Philly w wind blowing in from right at 7 mph.

  • cjs5555

    @Njsum1 said...

    Don’t think many people were using Bregman and Springer one offs. If you had them you very likely has a Stros stack.

    I believe Bregman was over 30% owned on DK while the Astros stack was more like 15%‘ish (Springer around 20%). Didn’t help that the MIN players were 30-50% owned and completely shit the bed.

  • madmanjayWV

    When it’s all-in ROBBIE RAY on a short slate Monday, that’s scary stuff, but man the BUCCOS have been trash vs. lefties….

    The obvious plays are pretty obvious (bats-wise) today..so the big ? for GPP is which of the bats are you going to fade. Fading Bregman/Springer double dongs of course meant no chance at serious GPP cash. Luckily I rolled them out with Tony Kemp and a bum Stroh I can’t remember who didn’t do much.

    Been thinking and looking most of the afternoon – -waiting on the NELSON CRUZ is out for 2 months MRI-wrist injury news — but I still haven’t decided upon anything. Probably wait another hour+ and then just do my 2 FD GPPs and say forget it.

    Might go with a 2-2-2-2 or something —- Alex Avila punt dong is my biggest debate atm

  • yisman

    Carlos Rodon undergoing Tommy John surgery

  • yisman

    @cjs5555 said...

    stacking is less important now than a few years ago since everyone hits HRs all the time now. like yesterday you were basically sunk unless you picked springer and bregman and their 2 HRs each at >20% ownership, didn’t need a stack to do that. that said, it’s still a favored strategy due to the positive leverage you can gain via the progression of batters. it’s really hard to pick 8 random guys together who go off

    yeah, I couldn’t cash in double ups even with Tanaka/Snell, didn’t have the salary for Astros

  • cjs5555

    remember the old rule…always stack against the pitcher who just threw a no hitter in last outing.

  • Njsum1

    @cjs5555 said...

    I believe Bregman was over 30% owned on DK while the Astros stack was more like 15%‘ish (Springer around 20%). Didn’t help that the MIN players were 30-50% owned and completely shit the bed.

    I guess it depends on the tourney…yet I had Bregman at 18% Springer just under 15%. With Correa, Gurriel, and Reddick at 15% as well.

    It would make sense that Bregman was slightly higher owned due to price and batting order. Meaning he was in 12345 stacks 123 stacks, 23456 stacks. Just saying, if you got Springer and Bregman, very unlikely they were one offs.

    Springer was actually the lowest owned and he’s the leadoff hitter which is rare. People were probably hesitant to pay 5700 for Springer at home again a righty.

    Also…Springer and Bregman together could be considered a mini stack since they batted 1-2 yesterday

  • cjs5555

    @Njsum1 said...

    I guess it depends on the tourney…yet I had Bregman at 18% Springer just under 15%. With Correa, Gurriel, and Reddick at 15% as well.

    i think i was quoting what i remembered from the DK $100 single entry, which I kind of use as a proxy for who the sharps are on as compared to ownership of those players in the bigger, lower $ GPPs. I mean, it was a smart play vs. Sampson and his reverse splits. I had my stacks ranked STL then HOU then MIN yesterday going into lineup construction, then switched MIN and HOU because I liked how the MIN players fit since I wanted to use Snell as much as possible.

  • captainwacky

    @madmanjayWV said...

    When it’s all-in ROBBIE RAY on a short slate Monday, that’s scary stuff, but man the BUCCOS have been trash vs. lefties….

    The obvious plays are pretty obvious (bats-wise) today..so the big ? for GPP is which of the bats are you going to fade. Fading Bregman/Springer double dongs of course meant no chance at serious GPP cash. Luckily I rolled them out with Tony Kemp and a bum Stroh I can’t remember who didn’t do much.

    Been thinking and looking most of the afternoon – -waiting on the NELSON CRUZ is out for 2 months MRI-wrist injury news — but I still haven’t decided upon anything. Probably wait another hour+ and then just do my 2 FD GPPs and say forget it.

    Might go with a 2-2-2-2 or something —- Alex Avila punt dong is my biggest debate atm

    Specifically quoting this solely for ‘punt dong’.

  • DailyDonater

    Peacock + surprisingly cheap Indians stack for all the monies?

  • cjs5555

    my thoughts on tonight….

    Ray – I’m expecting him to be the second highest owned pitcher (behind Peacock) but I’d rather take PIT bats as a contrarian play. Ray has these games every once in a while where he gives up a bunch, and PIT RHBs profile well against him. Maybe he’s past those outings this year, but I still don’t trust him.

    Berrios – like this play vs. LAA lineup weak on LHBs. Ceiling likely suppressed due to low LAA K%

    Nola – besides those bad WAS outings, he’s pitched fine, but he’s being inefficient, not getting to 7+ IP and he’s still too expensive if he’s a 5-6 inning pitcher. MIL doesn’t seem like the opponent for him to change that trend, esp with Berrios, Bieber and Peacock priced in the same tier.

    Bieber – CHW K’d 11 times vs. Aaron Sanchez yesterday, but also hit 2 well time HRs for 5 ER. Gut tells me Bieber’s worth starting, but I can see the CHW stack too.

    Boyd – been really good, but he’s a perfect matchup on paper for HOU bats. HOU didn’t do much yesterday beyond Springer, Bregman and Kemp. Maybe their hot streak is cooling off? I probably won’t use him or HOU bats but like Boyd as a contrarian play.

    Peacock – just not enough quality LHBs in DET lineup that I see them being a threat; expect a quality follow up to his last outing where he scored 40 DK pts.

    Fiers – in my mind, always stack against the mediocre pitcher who just threw 125 pitches in a no-hitter last outing.

    Kikuchi – I expect his standard outing so far this year of 5-6 IP with 3 ER and a couple Ks.

    Skaggs – boom/bust option IMO. MIN sure stunk it up vs. Norris yesterday and this is a similar matchup but no Nelson Cruz.

    Peralta – adventure awaits! 2019 Peralta has .376 wOBA, 21.6% K rate, 4 HR and 8 xbh vs. RHBs in 15 IP. Career Peralta has .244 wOBA, 28.6% K rate, 6 HR and 14 xbh vs. RHBs in 59 IP. Which version is real vs. RHB heavy PHI lineup?

    Lopez – 7.18 ERA and 35 Ks in 26 IP at home this year! CLE offense is putrid this year and 24% K rate vs RHPs. What happens next?

    Kingham – stretched out enough that maybe he gets to 90 pitches tonight, weak vs. LHBs. I think I favor the contrarian play of fading ARI bats since they should be the chalkiest lineup tonight.

  • jayzee666

    @DailyDonater said...

    Peacock + surprisingly cheap Indians stack for all the monies?

    If we go by your username then I don’t think we should be taking advise from you? :)
    JK

  • Epignosis

    • 717

      RG Overall Ranking

    @cjs5555 said...

    Berrios – like this play vs. LAA lineup weak on LHBs. Ceiling likely suppressed due to low LAA K%

    I think the Angels get to Berrios. I’m stacking up the Halos.

  • mr_papageorgio

    Making one LU and Freddy is in it. What could go wrong?

  • biga0787

    He will be low owned. That’s for sure

  • ASitar

    DK single bullet: Peacock/Bieber/Twins 1, 3, 5, 7/Zona 3,4. Ok or too chalky?

  • biga0787

    My mind is overloaded. I’m not sure where to take a stand… I like a lot of what should be low owned sea guys. Hopefully that will help the ari stack that I think should be taken. Good luck all.

  • keephustlincuz

    @ASitar said...

    DK single bullet: Peacock/Bieber/Twins 1, 3, 5, 7/Zona 3,4. Ok or too chalky?

    I was wondering about Min myself. I have quite a bit but can’t decide if they will be mega owned.

  • biga0787

    But I have set my lines. I’m gone until after lock.

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