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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:05 PM EST : NY Mets ( 103 ) at Pittsburgh ( -113 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:05 PM EST : Oakland ( 149 ) at NY Yankees ( -162 ) —- T: 9
    7:05 PM EST : San Diego ( 217 ) at Washington ( -238 ) —- T: 8
    7:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 143 ) at Philadelphia ( -153 ) —- T: 9
    7:07 PM EST : Texas ( 130 ) at Toronto ( -141 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : Seattle ( 157 ) at Boston ( -171 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : LA Angels ( 123 ) at Miami ( -133 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:10 PM EST : Kansas City ( 185 ) at Cleveland ( -200 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:10 PM EST : Baltimore ( 140 ) at Houston ( -152 ) —- T: 9
    8:10 PM EST : Arizona ( -105 ) at Milwaukee ( -103 ) —- T: 9
    8:10 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -135 ) at Minnesota ( 125 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:40 PM EST : Detroit ( -108 ) at Chi Sox ( 100 ) —- T: 9.5
    8:40 PM EST : St. Louis ( -127 ) at Colorado ( 117 ) —- T: 10.5
    10:10 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( 122 ) at LA Dodgers ( -132 ) —- T: 8
    10:15 PM EST : Atlanta ( -101 ) at SF Giants ( -107 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • murphstahoe

    @elementasrat said...

    Holy shit, thanks for posting this! I just checked my email and also received that free entry!

    I was about to head to my local convenience store and buy a gift card to deposit but looks like I’ll wait another day.

    Hopefully I cash!

    Gift card?

    Let me guess, you don’t want a paper trail :)

  • KindGuy

    Rockies offense is trash. Strike out a bunch. Just like the DBacks.

  • KindGuy

    @murphstahoe said...

    Gift card?

    Let me guess, you don’t want a paper trail :)

    Na I’m just 19 and without a bank account lmao

  • RobertoTomba

    Mike Clevinger looks like a great way to save some money (over his brother-in-hair, DeGrom, not to mention Scherzer and Archer).

  • murphstahoe

    This is a great, very challenging slate.

    Scherzer is in a great spot, San Diego only managed 4 last night vs a bullpen start. I am always queasy on these 12.5K pitchers because if you think you want to hit 140-150 on DK, you’re wanting 3x value and that means 35-40 points, which is a reach. But unlike the NBA where I want to hit 6x from everyone, batters that hit a HR are pretty much always 4x value, so you can fade a little on the pitcher. And if it was only about hitting 3x value, you could pick a bunch of cheap players, leave 10k salary on the table, hit 3x but only get 120 – you need to have expensive players that hit value. I think tonight I have to take Max,

    Archer is better at home than the road. Twins have been hitting well. I really like Archer but if I am taking Max, it will be hard to take him, between the two I like Max at home vs SD than Archer on the road vs Minn.

    Alex Wood is interesting. Arrieta is not. I expect to have some Dodgers.

    Fading coors – no idea what’s going to happen here – maybe a STL one off if I find the right matchup.

    Tanaka has given up 13 dingers. Khris Davis?

    I’m real interested in Clevenger.

    Check Matt Cain home/road splits. Atlanta is minus Freeman. That’s a lot of money for bats.

    Nats are expensive but I feel Perdomo exploding.

    Broken record but I like Dbacks

  • yanksfan1

    What happens if they only play one of the Tigers/White Sox games?

  • jtkucheck

    @murphstahoe said...

    Check Matt Cain home/road splits. Atlanta is minus Freeman. That’s a lot of money for bats.

    The Cain at AT&T thing is noticeable, and has more to do with walks than it does with him getting hit hard. He actually is giving up 40% hard contact at home as opposed to 25% on the road, but is far more aggressive in the zone (23% K rate at home vs 10% K rate on the road, 8% BB rate at home vs 13% on the road).

    If I had to posit a theory as to why this would be, I’d guess he is very comfortable at AT&T and knows he can be more aggressive in the zone since it is such a pitchers park. Whether he is doing this consciously or not, I think it plays a role in his performance.

    Aggressive in the zone against a bad lineup with some K potential and only one true long ball threat in Kemp in a park that minimizes power… Yeah I think I’m on board the Cain train in at least 1-2 lineups.

  • Lathum

    I was watching the Cubs game yesterday and they said for whatever reason Jake Arietta always pitches great in California.

  • bigsmoot2

    On FD there are a couple of decent cheap stacks to pair with Scherzer, I am gonna fade him completely, and look elsewhere, and look at some of the big boys as one offs, Harper, Betts, etc.

    I am sure Scherzer will put up 50-60+ on FD, but if another pitcher can put up 40+, and the bats go off, could be a good night. Check out Wil Myers BvP on Scherzer, the Pads might hit a few homers tonight as he is prone to give up, but I doubt they beat him.

    Interesting slate for sure.

  • vandymark

    @elementasrat said...

    Na I’m just 19 and without a bank account lmao

    Ummm you’re 19, not 15… I think getting a bank account would be a good idea ;)

  • jtkucheck

    @Lathum said...

    I was watching the Cubs game yesterday and they said for whatever reason Jake Arietta always pitches great in California.

    I would guess this is true of most pitchers.

  • Lathum

    @vandymark said...

    Ummm you’re 19, not 15… I think getting a bank account would be a good idea ;)

    My kids are 4 and 7 and have bank accounts

  • murphstahoe

    For a big slate like this I’ve decided to take a quarter or a buck and build a lineup in the various smaller slates.
    that way I have to analyze the games I might initially just be ignoring and perhaps find something I was missing, I tend to get in a rut with certain teams or hitters (I use Chris Owings like every single day, it hasn’t been a problem but still)

    After doing so, I go back to my initial take on the big slate and usually end up revamping it massively.

  • yanksfan1

    Is Carlos Martinez worth the discount today?

  • murphstahoe

    Josh Donaldson is back. He’s not discounted but might be off people’s radars. AJ Griffin gives up hard contact.

  • murphstahoe

    @Lathum said...

    My kids are 4 and 7 and have bank accounts

    We better stop before I start getting into politics and go over why we have a disparity where I opened a bank account – with funding – for my kid using my iPhone from the hospital room where he was born (had to wait until we found out boy/girl) and across town there are 40 year olds who have never had a bank account in their lives.

    Probably just as well in our case here, if you are on the edge of having a bank account or not, maybe having to go down the street to get a gift card is better than having DK linked to your bank account.

    I will say this, it’s nice that you can get all this sweaty action in DFS for 25 cents a contest that last hours, instead of a casino with $10 minimum blackjack tables where a hand lasts 15 seconds.

  • murphstahoe

    @yanksfan1 said...

    Is Carlos Martinez worth the discount today?

    “Do you feel lucky punk?” pretty much sums up Coors today. Could go any way.

  • danehalleen

    What do you guys make of Archer’s ugly road splits for the second year in a row? Sneaky Twins stack?

  • Lathum

    @murphstahoe said...

    I will say this, it’s nice that you can get all this sweaty action in DFS for 25 cents a contest that last hours, instead of a casino with $10 minimum blackjack tables where a hand lasts 15 seconds.

    Which is why casinos hate DFS but you are correct.

    I was in Vegas opening weekend of March Madness, table minimums were crazy, that Saturday night the lowest I could find at Cosmo was $50/ hand. We were staying at Venetian and was tough to find even $25/ hand.

  • jtkucheck

    @danehalleen said...

    What do you guys make of Archer’s ugly road splits for the second year in a row? Sneaky Twins stack?

    Mainly that he pitches the majority of his away games at Rogers Centre, Fenway, Yankee Stadium, and Camden Yards.

  • murphstahoe

    @Lathum said...

    Which is why casinos hate DFS but you are correct.

    I was in Vegas opening weekend of March Madness, table minimums were crazy, that Saturday night the lowest I could find at Cosmo was $50/ hand. We were staying at Venetian and was tough to find even $25/ hand.

    That’s obviously a big weekend, and those are some high rent places, but that’s pretty nutty. And I’m sure they were paying 6/5 on blackjack, the assholes.

    I can’t believe it but it’s true, have not been to Vegas in like 10 years – I used to go at least twice a month “back in the day”. I did see the Cosmo from the window of an airplane when I was connecting through Vegas. If there’s ever a meetup I have a lot of stories – was involved in some blackjack and video poker highjinks that are insane in retrospect.

    When I go to South Lake Tahoe for 10 days in Summer and Winter, I barely sniff a casino, but I did note that minimums were up across the board.

    The real wacky weekend at the high rent joints is Chinese New Year’s, I usually played the 2 deckers at Mirage and all the 2D tables were $300 or higher minimum.

  • Lathum

    yeah, we are fortunate money isn’t really an issue for any of us (relatively speaking), but it still isn’t fun to drop 1K is 30 minutes.

    I have been playing a lot of Pai Gow, really a fun game that is pretty chill.

  • DontTrustTheProcess

    @Lathum said...

    yeah, we are fortunate money isn’t really an issue for any of us (relatively speaking), but it still isn’t fun to drop 1K is 30 minutes.

    I have been playing a lot of Pai Gow, really a fun game that is pretty chill.

    Love Pai Gow. You can sit at a Pai Gow table with 200 bucks and sit there for 6 hours and get hammered and still have 200 bucks with all the pushes.

  • murphstahoe

    The 11 AM call is Clevenger/Cain/Mets with a handful of other monsters all capable of jacking one out and going against a gas can.
    If those two pitchers don’t get lit up and I get 4-5 homers, who needs Scherzer.

  • murphstahoe

    A’s pitching change – from Gravemann to Manea – I really should have been looking at this game, not sure why the Yanks are suddenly off my radar, but this is probably a worse setup for NY than Gravemann anyway.

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