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  • Pandamonious

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    1:05 PM EST : Miami ( 262 ) at Washington ( -289 ) T: 8
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • monarch

    Just early glance. Like the Max/Norris combo and Tigers/White Sox bats. The White Sox should score early and often

  • Lathum

    Fandual craps the bed again with their contest sizing. 8:45 on the east coast and their 100K GPP is 2/3 full. will be gone before most people on the west coast even wake up.

    They could have easily run a really nice 300K contest with a big prize up top.

  • sjmay111

    @Lathum said...

    Fandual craps the bed again with their contest sizing. 8:45 on the east coast and their 100K GPP is 2/3 full. will be gone before most people on the west coast even wake up.

    They could have easily run a really nice 300K contest with a big prize up top.

    I dunno, if I know I want to join a contest, I join, set a faux lineup, then you have all morning to go in and edit it etc.

  • TheRyanFlaherty

    Despite having a love/hate relationship with single game contests, I was looking forward to playing them today…kind of disappointed DK’s only put 2 showdown games up. I figured the day would benlittered with them. Oh well…

  • Lathum

    @sjmay111 said...

    I dunno, if I know I want to join a contest, I join, set a faux lineup, then you have all morning to go in and edit it etc.

    People won’t even have that option. It’s 6am on the west coast on a holiday weekend. There is zero reason for a contest to fill 4 hours before lock.

  • sjmay111

    @Lathum said...

    People won’t even have that option. It’s 6am on the west coast on a holiday weekend. There is zero reason for a contest to fill 4 hours before lock.

    It’s 4 hours before first pitch…..is your argument that the contests are too small, are that the times are too early? Again, I planned for this, I joined the one I wanted last night…putting together a faux lineup, and now I am doing research to fine tune that…..if a person on the WC wanted to join a specific contest, they could have done the same exact thing.

  • Lathum

    The contests are way to small. The average person isn’t going to think to enter the night before, especially when the norm is the contest will be available an hour before lock. I play a couple hundred a day and I didn’t think about it until I remembered the same thing happened last year. Again, west coasters won’t even be awake. Surely you don’t think the majority of players are really thinking so far in advance?

  • superjon

    @Lathum said...

    The contests are way to small. The average person isn’t going to think to enter the night before, especially when the norm is the contest will be available an hour before lock. I play a couple hundred a day and I didn’t think about it until I remembered the same thing happened last year. Again, west coasters won’t even be awake. Surely you don’t think the majority of players are really thinking so far in advance?

    If the contests are filling, then obviously there are plenty of people that are capable of thinking ahead.

  • jjpk

    Limited pitching options, lots of offenses in good spots. I’m struggling with builds if I try to use two of Max, Castillo and G. Cole. I can squint to see a decent outcome for Bassitt, maybe even Gray. Then it’s a massive roll of the dice.

    Anyone like a cheap P on DK (under 8)?

  • Pandamonious

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    @jjpk said...

    Limited pitching options, lots of offenses in good spots. I’m struggling with builds if I try to use two of Max, Castillo and G. Cole. I can squint to see a decent outcome for Bassitt, maybe even Gray. Then it’s a massive roll of the dice.

    Anyone like a cheap P on DK (under 8)?

    I don’t “like” any of them, as in able to play them happily and confidently, but Porcello, Norris, Bailey, and Nova are all on my radar out of necessity. Probably in the order is the level to which that I like them.

    **Just peeking at the umpires now and might bump up my interest level in Bailey and Nova.

  • sjmay111

    @Pandamonious said...

    I don’t “like” any of them, as in able to play them happily and confidently, but Porcello, Norris, Bailey, and Nova are all on my radar out of necessity. Probably in the order is the level to which that I like them.

    **Just peeking at the umpires now and might bump up my interest level in Bailey and Nova.

    Where do you get the umpire information, and what….information are you looking at that would provide a bump to pitchers?

  • iron_tactics

    @jjpk said...

    Limited pitching options, lots of offenses in good spots. I’m struggling with builds if I try to use two of Max, Castillo and G. Cole. I can squint to see a decent outcome for Bassitt, maybe even Gray. Then it’s a massive roll of the dice.

    Anyone like a cheap P on DK (under 8)?

    Numbers say Bailey/Scherzer is a great pairing, CHW 25.2%k rate to righties and MIA with a 23.9% K rate. But MLB DFS tells me both get Crushed and COL puts up 17 runs on Greinke and what else, Cahill CGSOs OAK yep thats about right.

  • monarch

    Pretty good ump for that game plus Nats/Marlins.

    Bailey could be serviceable (I doubt it) but at some point the White Sox are going to beat up the Royals bullpen

  • iron_tactics

    @sjmay111 said...

    Where do you get the umpire information, and what….information are you looking at that would provide a bump to pitchers?

    There’s data to suggest that an umpire is more inclined to call balls thrown on the outside as a ball or strike etc. meaning that they are more of a hitter friendly umpire or a pitcher friendly umpire, then there’s the really blind ones considered an Extreme hitters or extreme pitcher friendly umpire. On RG it’s found on the BAT I believe.

  • Pandamonious

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    @sjmay111 said...

    Where do you get the umpire information, and what….information are you looking at that would provide a bump to pitchers?

    I look here…https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-umpire-factors
    Labs, I think you need a membership though, rates umpires in their models
    Here at RG in the lineup builder will list and rank the umpires based on the BAT’s ratings. Not sure if that’s part of premium in the builder or not.

  • iron_tactics

    @monarch said...

    Pretty good ump for that game plus Nats/Marlins.

    Bailey could be serviceable (I doubt it) but at some point the White Sox are going to beat up the Royals bullpen

    CHW are a high GB% team with low Hard hit % but Bailey should bump their Hard hit % and………that’s like it. Should be more Ground Balls I would think. If Abreu catches that FS he’d be the guy that Dongs on that team I think. Of course there’s the mental aspect too, maybe he has a shit morning and doesn’t care today

  • Epignosis

    • 703

      RG Overall Ranking

    I have an unhealthy interest in Nova and Bailey today.

    The weather is in their favor. They draw Bill Miller behind the plate. They are priced like batters.

    All they have to do today is not stink.

  • monarch

    @Epignosis said...

    I have an unhealthy interest in Nova and Bailey today.

    The weather is in their favor. They draw Bill Miller behind the plate. They are priced like batters.

    All they have to do today is not stink.

    No doubt. Nova allows you to get Red Sox/Scherzer if you desire. The trap is that those spend up values fail to deliver.

  • gravitymaze

    Gonna roll with Yonny Chirinos on fd who is dirt cheap against Tor without Smoak in the lineup.

  • PhoFever

    Machado breakout coming soon? Having trouble deciding between him and Turner.

  • Njsum1

    @iron_tactics said...

    CHW are a high GB% team with low Hard hit % but Bailey should bump their Hard hit % and………that’s like it. Should be more Ground Balls I would think. If Abreu catches that FS he’d be the guy that Dongs on that team I think. Of course there’s the mental aspect too, maybe he has a shit morning and doesn’t care today

    I hate posting plays for MLB, just makes makes the opposite happen. But Eloy Jimenez has a good shot at a Homer off Bailey 😉

  • monarch

    @Njsum1 said...

    I hate posting plays for MLB, just makes makes the opposite happen. But Eloy Jimenez has a good shot at a Homer off Bailey 😉

    He’s my favorite play on the slate…but I was also 100 percent Trevor Story yesterday (5ks)

  • iron_tactics

    @Njsum1 said...

    I hate posting plays for MLB, just makes makes the opposite happen. But Eloy Jimenez has a good shot at a Homer off Bailey 😉

    I can see it off the bullpen but off of Bailey I don’t. That means he hits 2 today both off of Bailey.

  • cjs5555

    • 701

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    @jjpk said...

    Limited pitching options, lots of offenses in good spots. I’m struggling with builds if I try to use two of Max, Castillo and G. Cole. I can squint to see a decent outcome for Bassitt, maybe even Gray. Then it’s a massive roll of the dice.

    Anyone like a cheap P on DK (under 8)?

    I like Scherzer to bounce back after his terrible outing against MIA last time, but boy does he seem to struggle against the Marlins. I like Cole and Castillo less based on their matchups against competent offenses with lower K rates. Hamels looks interesting vs. beat up HOU lineup. Strahm is reverse splits vs. NYY lineup with 1 LHB, also NYY 27% K rate vs. LHPs.

    For cheaper options, I’m looking at:

    - Aaron Sanchez – ballpark boost, only 4 LHBs in TB lineup and they’re spread out… but his ceiling is probably like 20 DK pts with the W as I don’t see many Ks.

    - Urena – if he can work around Soto/Adams, potential for a ~15 DK pt game seems there (not a perfect option, but pitching is so weak this slate)

    - Cahill – simply because he’s better against RHBs and has some K potential

    - Bailey – again, averaging 1 K/IP against a team that Ks a fair amount

    I want to like Norris but I just can’t against the lineup BAL rolled out. If looking for optimism, I guess BAL had to fly back from COL last night before playing an early game out east. Porcello – I don’t think his floor is safe today and I’d rather pay down for Cahill/Bailey than take that risk. If you want to get crazy contrarian, why not try Kingham? Guy’s averaging 1 K/IP, CIN weak vs. RHPs…

  • tristanwolf

    35-55% chance of thunderstorms during chw game. and if they have to delay heavier stuff coming.

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