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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    7:05 PM EST : Arizona ( 116 ) at Washington ( -126 ) —- T: 8
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • billholler

    Forced to play baseball for the monthly free roll so if someone could go ahead and tell me 2 safe pitchers, that would be great.

  • tmarohl

    @billholler said...

    Forced to play baseball for the monthly free roll so if someone could go ahead and tell me 2 safe pitchers, that would be great.

    Same here. I’m rolling with deGrom and Carrasco.

  • draped

    @billholler said...

    Forced to play baseball for the monthly free roll so if someone could go ahead and tell me 2 safe pitchers, that would be great.

    well today is not the greatest when it comes to safe pitchers, at least compared to the past few days. Arrieta vs the Phillies in Wrigley with cold weather and wind blowing in is probably the safest guy. Aside from that there is a pretty large group of SP2 options on DK that all have some sort of risk, I wouldn’t say any of them are particularly safe: deGrom, Carrasco, Pomeranz are the three im considering in cash today to pair with Arrieta. I think today is a perfectly fine day to go cheaper at your SP2 if you want though.

  • California_Cool

    • Ranked #47

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @jtkucheck said...

    A lot of love for A’s stacks today… I’m not seeing it. Santiago has accrued a better sample than most non-divisional pitchers against these A’s hitters due to his long tenure with the Angels… and he’s actually been… not terrible.

    Some notables with 15 or more somewhat recent ABs:

    Jed Lowrie: 0-20
    Rajai Davis: 3-23
    Adam Rosales: 3-15

    Phegley has hit him decently well but I can’t envision myself taking a Phegley one-off.

    Im not saying that the A’s are a slam dunk by any means…they’re still the A’s. I think they’re appealing because they are so damn cheap, and in a good spot. You can roster and pay up for guys like Carrassco or Arrieta( not like theyr’e in great spots) on a really piss-poor pitching slate. As far as the analytics, I base more of my knowledge from watching the games. I watch pretty much all the west coast teams. If I continue to hear that the A’s are chalky, I will prob fade, sneaky was the only appeal for me.

  • draped

    @California_Cool said...

    Im not saying that the A’s are a slam dunk by any means…they’re still the A’s. I think they’re appealing because they are so damn cheap, and in a good spot. You can roster and pay up for guys like Carrassco or Arrieta( not like theyr’e in great spots) on a really piss-poor pitching slate. As far as the analytics, I base more of my knowledge from watching the games. I watch pretty much all the west coast teams. If I continue to hear that the A’s are chalky, I will prob fade, sneaky was the only appeal for me.

    its a 15 game slate with lots of poor pitchers, I wouldn’t worry about any one stack gaining a huge ownership.

    EDIT: also no coors or chase field to worry about.

  • California_Cool

    • Ranked #47

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @billholler said...

    Forced to play baseball for the monthly free roll so if someone could go ahead and tell me 2 safe pitchers, that would be great.

    This is a terrible slate for “safety” in pitchers. Honestly, I would find out what bats I wanted, and then fill the pitchers in. The top guys like Carrasco, Arrieta are not ing good spots. The Tigers are mashing the ball right now, and with Miggy back in the lu, it adds further risk. Arrieta should be fine vs the Phillies, but he’s not worth his price on either site. The line also has been dropping in that game, some are saying that the weather will play a role, and the game should start, but wont finish.DeGrom checks off all the marks on paper, but the Braves are absolutely locked in at the plate right now. Pomeranz is in a good spot vs the O’s who k a ton, but the upside isn’t there like it was with Sale last night. His pitch count is way up, and will struggle to clear 6 innings. The cheap guys Im looking at are Senzatela vs the Padres, who struggle vs righties at home. Possibly Morton, but I need to do some more research.

  • California_Cool

    • Ranked #47

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @draped said...

    its a 15 game slate with lots of poor pitchers, I wouldn’t worry about any one stack gaining a huge ownership.

    EDIT: also no coors or chase field to worry about.

    5-10% ownership is too much for me to roster the A’s. I don’t play alot on these 15 game slates, too much variance, like last night. I averaged about 149 DK pts last night, and barely cashed in my tourneys.

  • jtkucheck

    @draped said...

    i dont really like bvp, especially in 20 ABs. but either way i don’t think too many people want lowrie or rajai in their A’s stacks. possibly rajai but definitely not a top option from the a’s. I think most of the interest is in Davis, Rosales, Plouffe and Healy who hit for power and are flyball hitters vs a flyball pitcher and they all have the platoon advantage R vs L and Santiago is much worse vs righties. and oak is much better for righties for power and the wind is blowing out to left.

    Sure, but at least 2 of the 3 of Lowrie, Davis and Rosales will be hitting atop the order most likely, and if I’m going to stack a team I want their 1 and 2 hitters to get on base plenty, regardless of whom I have in my stack, as the resulting increase in RBI and sheer plate appearances are what make the stack worthwhile in the first place.

    As far as BvP goes, I’m not a big believer either way, but in extreme examples in either direction, I’ll pay attention. 0-20 and 3-23 could just be variance, but that’s a lot of variance. Since I was curious, I looked up the exit velocity over these samples as well. Lowrie and Davis both at 87 MPH… not terrible but also not screaming regression. Baseball Savant weirdly doesn’t have an exit velocity for Rosales, but he did K in 5 of his 15 ABs which doesn’t speak to him seeing Santiago particularly well (Davis also K’d 8 times, but he Ks a lot in general).

  • draped

    @jtkucheck said...

    Sure, but at least 2 of the 3 of Lowrie, Davis and Rosales will be hitting atop the order most likely, and if I’m going to stack a team I want their 1 and 2 hitters to get on base plenty, regardless of whom I have in my stack, as the resulting increase in RBI and sheer plate appearances are what make the stack worthwhile in the first place.

    As far as BvP goes, I’m not a big believer either way, but in extreme examples in either direction, I’ll pay attention. 0-20 and 3-23 could just be variance, but that’s a lot of variance. Since I was curious, I looked up the exit velocity over these samples as well. Lowrie and Davis both at 87 MPH… not terrible but also not screaming regression. Baseball Savant weirdly doesn’t have an exit velocity for Rosales, but he did K in 5 of his 15 ABs which doesn’t speak to him seeing Santiago particularly well (Davis also K’d 8 times, but he Ks a lot in general).

    last time they faced a lefty their lineup was rosales, plouffe, healy, k. davis……

    and i wont talk about the BvP stuff because we have differing opinions about sample size, variance, etc which is fine :)

    EDIT: and the time before that their lineup was rosales, lowrie, healy, k. davis, plouffe

  • NarrowJ

    Just really hard for me to stack a team that has only scored more than 6 runs in 3 games all season that is featuring a leadoff hitter with a career .228/.298/.368 (if it’s Rosales, like we think it will be).

  • billholler

    Thanks for the input fellas. Favorite real sport is baseball. Least favorite DFS sport is baseball.

  • jtkucheck

    @draped said...

    last time they faced a lefty their lineup was rosales, plouffe, healy, k. davis……

    and i wont talk about the BvP stuff because we have differing opinions about sample size, variance, etc which is fine :)

    EDIT: and the time before that their lineup was rosales, lowrie, healy, k. davis, plouffe

    I think a daily “Guess the A’s lineup” would be an entertaining game on this thread.

    Curious though- is there a sample size large enough for you to consider BvP?

    Using today as an example, both Trout and Pujols have 50+ PAs against Iwakuma, and both have been discernibly bad against him from both a batting average and K perspective, with relatively low aEV as well. Knowing what we know about both Iwakuma (he is very bad now) and Trout (he is one of the best hitters in baseball), I’m legitimately conflicted as to what to expect from this match-up. My hunch is that Iwakuma accrued the majority of this sample when he was good and Trout was still developing, but that doesn’t really make sense given they are in the same division and should face each other the same number of times each year.

    If Trout and Pujols both take 0-4s and Kole Calhoun goes nuts… It is hard for me to dismiss that entirely.

  • draped

    @NarrowJ said...

    Just really hard for me to stack a team that has only scored more than 6 runs in 3 games all season that is featuring a leadoff hitter with a career .228/.298/.368

    hes got a career slash line vs lefties of .246/.322/.402, ISO of .156, wOBA of .318. sure that’s not great but its not bad either, and he is a flyball hitter vs a bad flyball pitcher. and he is 2500!!!!! and plays 2B or SS!!!!! idk what you are looking for from a DFS perspective, but a 2500 2B/SS with power batting leadoff vs a bad flyball pitcher seems like a pretty damn good deal if you are stacking that team.

    and 2 out of the 3 games where they scored more than 6 runs were against lefties! and one of those was James Paxton….

  • draped

    @jtkucheck said...

    I think a daily “Guess the A’s lineup” would be an entertaining game on this thread.

    Curious though- is there a sample size large enough for you to consider BvP?

    Using today as an example, both Trout and Pujols have 50+ PAs against Iwakuma, and both have been discernibly bad against him from both a batting average and K perspective, with relatively low aEV as well. Knowing what we know about both Iwakuma (he is very bad now) and Trout (he is one of the best hitters in baseball), I’m legitimately conflicted as to what to expect from this match-up. My hunch is that Iwakuma accrued the majority of this sample when he was good and Trout was still developing, but that doesn’t really make sense given they are in the same division and should face each other the same number of times each year.

    If Trout and Pujols both take 0-4s and Kole Calhoun goes nuts… It is hard for me to dismiss that entirely.

    im not someone who completely ignores BvP. i think its real and I think its silly to say its not real. But for me to consider it, it has to be some combination of extreme results and decent sample size. For example, if mike trout is 15/50 with 4 HRs vs a guy im probably not caring about it, since the difference between him as a hitter and the BvP is relatively small and it could easily negatively regress or positively regress. But if joe schmo is 6/18 with 3 HRs, then ya id probably factor that in somehow because even with negative regression he is still probably going to end up as a better hitter vs that pitcher than he normally is. the same is with negative results. its trade off where the more extreme the results the more im willing to take on lesser sample sizes. I usually only really use BvP as a tiebreaker anyway.

    in the case of the A’s I wouldn’t consider 3-15 from rosales. its not extreme or large enough for me to care. and he is 2500…..

  • tonedefrob

    @jtkucheck said...

    Curious though- is there a sample size large enough for you to consider BvP?

    Basically no. By the time a batter reaches a large enough sample size I’d feel comfortable with the pitcher is likely on the down swing of his career.

    An example from a game today (that is now cancelled) is Ryan Braun with 89 PAs against Wainwright. He’s been atrocious. I would trust that sample size but Wainwright isn’t the pitcher he was 3-4 years ago while Braun is pretty much the same hitter.

    The only time you get to sample sizes where it could even be considered is when they’re division rivals who have been on their teams for their whole career/5+ years. There are some Miguel Cabrera numbers I buy into.

    Same can be said with the example of Iwakuma (gotten worse) and Trout (still great) in this thread, though I am more likely to believe the Pujols numbers since both he and Iwakuma have fallen off in recent years.

  • Tnjkoch221

    Liking T. Beckham leading off.

  • NarrowJ

    @draped said...

    hes got a career slash line vs lefties of .246/.322/.402, ISO of .156, wOBA of .318. sure that’s not great but its not bad either, and he is a flyball hitter vs a bad flyball pitcher. and he is 2500!!!!! and plays 2B or SS!!!!! idk what you are looking for from a DFS perspective, but a 2500 2B/SS with power batting leadoff vs a bad flyball pitcher seems like a pretty damn good deal if you are stacking that team.

    and 2 out of the 3 games where they scored more than 6 runs were against lefties! and one of those was James Paxton….

    Well, I suppose doing one wouldn’t hurt :) Only 8 bucks, right? haha

    Seriously, though- good points on the salary relief aspect and being able to fit him into two slots (2B/SS) that can both be rather thin on FP.

  • walkoff9

    • 595

      RG Overall Ranking

    What do we do with aging sluggers that have been struggling? Carlos Gonzalez, E5, Jose Bautista, all in good spots and priced cheap, but maybe they really are just not as good anymore.

  • jtkucheck

    @Tnjkoch221 said...

    Liking T. Beckham leading off.

    Realmuto/Beckham/Rosales affords you a LOT of salary

  • KindGuy

    @walkoff9 said...

    What do we do with aging sluggers that have been struggling? Carlos Gonzalez, E5, Jose Bautista, all in good spots and priced cheap, but maybe they really are just not as good anymore.

    Cargo sucks outside of Coors like the rest of the Rockies: fade

    Encarnacion is trash and overrated: fade

    Bautista is sneaky: I like it.

  • draped

    @walkoff9 said...

    What do we do with aging sluggers that have been struggling? Carlos Gonzalez, E5, Jose Bautista, all in good spots and priced cheap, but maybe they really are just not as good anymore.

    quickly on DK, E5 all over him, Bautista interesting but I like other OFs more, CarGo no thanks.

  • Orty1370

    Chalky stacks today…

    DraftKings can’t ignore the value of the Yanks.
    FanDuel going with the Red Sox over Gausman in Fenway.

    Don’t think this will challenge for any GPP wins but maybe finishing in the money.

    Good Luck…

  • Ryazan

    • x3

      2015 FanDuel WFFC Finalist

    • x2

      2015 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    gonna go with the Gift from God, the Gift that keeps on giving, the man named Gift

  • mitchsnyderdfw

    Rangers averaging 13.5 SO/Game against Astros. Going against a pitcher only a couple guys have seen once before. Charlie Morton at 6.9K if you are looking to get some big bats in you LU

  • murphstahoe

    This Diaz catcher for Pittsburgh hitting 6th at $2100

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