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  • bhdevault

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    6:10 PM EST : Chi Sox ( 128 ) at Cleveland ( -138 ) —- T: 8.5
    6:35 PM EST : Seattle ( 130 ) at NY Yankees ( -141 ) —- T: 9
    7:00 PM EST : Boston ( 0 ) at Baltimore ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:05 PM EST : Texas ( 123 ) at Pittsburgh ( -133 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:07 PM EST : Minnesota ( -143 ) at Toronto ( 132 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:10 PM EST : LA Angels ( -135 ) at Detroit ( 125 ) —- T: 9
    7:10 PM EST : Arizona ( 0 ) at Tampa Bay ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:40 PM EST : Washington ( -104 ) at Milwaukee ( -104 ) —- T: 8
    7:45 PM EST : Philadelphia ( -120 ) at St. Louis ( 111 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:05 PM EST : Miami ( 162 ) at Chi Cubs ( -176 ) —- T: —
    8:10 PM EST : Kansas City ( 191 ) at Houston ( -208 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:40 PM EST : SF Giants ( 104 ) at Colorado ( -113 ) —- T: 10.5
    10:07 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 105 ) at Oakland ( -114 ) —- T: 8.5
    10:10 PM EST : NY Mets ( -144 ) at San Diego ( 133 ) —- T: 7.5
    10:10 PM EST : Atlanta ( 0 ) at LA Dodgers ( 0 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • AlexSonty

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    My kids are both sick as dogs or else I would write a blog post arguing for Collin McHugh on, at least, FanDuel. The 8600 tag is too cheap. His SIERA is down and the K rate is up since adding the slider.

  • bucherpsu08

    @AlexSonty said...

    My kids are both sick as dogs or else I would write a blog post arguing for Collin McHugh on, at least, FanDuel. The 8600 tag is too cheap. His SIERA is down and the K rate is up since adding the slider.

    I agree, but he is going to be uber chalk with that line.

  • sjmay111

    How do you guys LIMIT your variances? Strange question I think, everything I read says you want more of it, but for me…it feels that I am doing it too much, for example. last night, FD, if I would have stuck with my guns and did my lineup, I would have cashed in $30 instead of $5, etc, not complaining about cashing, but trying to limit mistakes etc….so last night i liked, MIN, ARI, WSH, and LAD as stacks, and out of 11 lineups, did all sorts of variations for those stacks, whereas if I would have stuck to my two primaries, MIN and LAD, I would have been much better etc.

  • bucherpsu08

    Targeting ARI was probably your biggest mistake. Obviously Snell has had a few bad starts but his SIERA was still sub 3.

  • sjmay111

    @bucherpsu08 said...

    Targeting ARI was probably your biggest mistake. Obviously Snell has had a few bad starts but his SIERA was still sub 3.

    It was, but here were there numbers against lefties, on the road, for their right handed hitters,

    1st. Only K% 16% of the time,

    Then, .ISO, WOBA and WRC+ and HR/FB %

    A. Jones 0.414 0.462 191 37
    K. Marte 0.385 0.455 186 30
    N. Ahmed 0.292 0.452 185 16
    C. Walker 0.316 0.444 179 16

    Not sure how you ignore that overall…….etc.

  • AlexSonty

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    @sjmay111 said...

    It was, but here were there numbers against lefties, on the road, for their right handed hitters,

    1st. Only K% 16% of the time,

    Then, .ISO, WOBA and WRC+ and HR/FB %

    A. Jones 0.414 0.462 191 37
    K. Marte 0.385 0.455 186 30
    N. Ahmed 0.292 0.452 185 16
    C. Walker 0.316 0.444 179 16

    Not sure how you ignore that overall…….etc.

    I largely ignore small samples. Especially against good pitching. Also, Jones and Marte’s HR/FB should pop out at you that they’ve played above their heads. Even if we knew nothing else about them. This is a whole other thread, though.

  • sjmay111

    @AlexSonty said...

    I largely ignore small samples. Especially against good pitching. Also, Jones and Marte’s HR/FB should pop out at you that they’ve played above their heads. Even if we knew nothing else about them. This is a whole other thread, though.

    Why I ask questions lol, I need to learn etc….

    What do you consider a small sample vs medium or larger etc? Do you take last years numbers into account vs handedness, ie, like How Marte did against LH last year etc?

    If so? How do you factor in players on new teams, in new surroundings, new parks etc?

  • Jvanspro

    @sjmay111 said...

    It was, but here were there numbers against lefties, on the road, for their right handed hitters,

    1st. Only K% 16% of the time,

    Then, .ISO, WOBA and WRC+ and HR/FB %

    A. Jones 0.414 0.462 191 37
    K. Marte 0.385 0.455 186 30
    N. Ahmed 0.292 0.452 185 16
    C. Walker 0.316 0.444 179 16

    Not sure how you ignore that overall…….etc.

    The big mistake you made was not accounting for a super small sample size for ARI. Also Snell is so much better then any other lefty they’ve faced this year not to mention the park boost for Snell. The glaring issue with ARI was the lineup though, did you guys see that lineup? It was horrible, in fact, once the lineup came out my projection for Snell boosted over 5 points. That put me all over him.

  • AlexSonty

    • 395

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    • Blogger of the Month

    @sjmay111 said...

    Why I ask questions lol, I need to learn etc….

    What do you consider a small sample vs medium or larger etc? Do you take last years numbers into account vs handedness, ie, like How Marte did against LH last year etc?

    If so? How do you factor in players on new teams, in new surroundings, new parks etc?

    You should really start a new thread. You’ll likely get a lot of input. Everyone quits on last year’s numbers at different times. I will be using them to a degree all season. For splits, I use a lot of career and three year data, weighing them for recency. I would think people will speak up on that.

    As for new parks, we have park factors for that. As for new surroundings, if you mean what I think you mean, it doesnt matter.

  • renegade68

    Red Sox should be chalky bats tonight, so I’m considering using either Reds or Mets to be different. Using the Rays last night paid off well, 15th in the Hot Corner on DK after spending most of the night in the top 5.

  • yisman

    somehow wound up with 150 entries into the supreme squeeze. I’m screwed because I can only generate 20

  • sjmay111

    @renegade68 said...

    Red Sox should be chalky bats tonight, so I’m considering using either Reds or Mets to be different. Using the Rays last night paid off well, 15th in the Hot Corner on DK after spending most of the night in the top 5.

    I like the Reds tonight, as well as San Fran’s lefties….depends on if Longoria plays tonight

  • keephustlincuz

    @AlexSonty said...

    My kids are both sick as dogs or else I would write a blog post arguing for Collin McHugh on, at least, FanDuel. The 8600 tag is too cheap. His SIERA is down and the K rate is up since adding the slider.

    Beeks is only 5500 on FD. You can play whoever you want after that.

  • wpatrigo

    All over Lester and Caleb Smith today.
    Tough part is putting together a decent stack because you’re probably paying up for pitching today.
    Couple mid tier pitchers due for some big clunkers.
    At some point, Vlad Jr. As a one off has to pay at $3600. Berrios isn’t immune to bombs.

  • Jeddy3

    I said it last night and I’ll say it again. Vlad Jr has been the biggest bust.

  • frugal

    What do you think the chances are Betts and Martinez both go 0-4 again?

  • am03wins

    Someone convince me to not pair Quantril and Sampson in every single lineup on DK

  • kps3205s

    Suicidal to consider Antonio Senzatela tonight in Colorado or am I missing something and I’m way off?

    Against SF in Colorado as a starter the previous 2 years: 3-0 with 1 no decision.

    25 IP, 3 HR, 22 hits, 9 runs, 9 ER, 3 BB and 19K. ERA 3.24 if I figured it correctly.

    Any insight is greatly appreciated.

  • AlexSonty

    • 395

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    • Blogger of the Month

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Beeks is only 5500 on FD. You can play whoever you want after that.

    The QS though….

  • AlexSonty

    • 395

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    • Blogger of the Month

    @kps3205s said...

    Suicidal to consider Antonio Senzatela tonight in Colorado or am I missing something and I’m way off?

    Against SF in Colorado as a starter the previous 2 years: 3-0 with 1 no decision.

    25 IP, 3 HR, 22 hits, 9 runs, 9 ER, 3 BB and 19K. ERA 3.24 if I figured it correctly.

    Any insight is greatly appreciated.

    Why do those 25 innings matter tonight?

  • yisman

    @kps3205s said...

    Suicidal to consider Antonio Senzatela tonight in Colorado or am I missing something and I’m way off?

    Against SF in Colorado as a starter the previous 2 years: 3-0 with 1 no decision.

    25 IP, 3 HR, 22 hits, 9 runs, 9 ER, 3 BB and 19K. ERA 3.24 if I figured it correctly.

    Any insight is greatly appreciated.

    I would not consider him.

    He has been flat out bad this season going by advanced stats.

  • AlexSonty

    • 395

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    • Blogger of the Month

    @keephustlincuz said...

    Beeks is only 5500 on FD. You can play whoever you want after that.

    I’d also rather play Canning for 6700.

  • sjmay111

    @AlexSonty said...

    I’d also rather play Canning for 6700.

    What is your thought on Brault for PIT, I love his K/9 vs TEX propensity to strike out….and I like the cheapness of him allows me bigger bats…

  • wpatrigo

    33 at bats and he’s been declared a bust! It’s official.

  • wpatrigo

    Reverse splits I believe as well

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