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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    12:10 PM EST : Seattle ( 100 ) at Cleveland ( -108 ) —- T: 8.5
    12:10 PM EST : San Diego ( 104 ) at Atlanta ( -113 ) —- T: 7.5
    3:35 PM EST : Texas ( 146 ) at Oakland ( -158 ) —- T: 7.5
    7:05 PM EST : Boston ( -101 ) at Baltimore ( -107 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:10 PM EST : LA Angels ( -117 ) at Tampa Bay ( 108 ) —- T: 7
    7:10 PM EST : Colorado ( 125 ) at Miami ( -135 ) —- T: 8
    7:10 PM EST : SF Giants ( -101 ) at NY Mets ( -107 ) —- T: 7.5
    8:05 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 133 ) at Chi Cubs ( -144 ) —- T: 8
    8:10 PM EST : Washington ( -108 ) at Milwaukee ( 100 ) —- T: 8.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options

  • MaestroJay

    I’m avoiding early slate. What late slate GPP arm do we like on fanduel? I have a roark lineup as well as a Wada lineup.With the weather concerns in Chc any other arms being looked at for GPP late?

  • tgerty117546

    How often does Vogt sit day games after playing the night before?

  • realdeals

    @ElSlappo said...

    I love this giant winner take all quarter arcade tonight. Whoever finishes 2nd will need to be put on suicide watch :)

    Thanks, don’t usually play DK baseball, but will jump in on this. Love the winner take all as well.

  • realdeals

    @dre87 said...

    I’m assuming that’s why Vegas has the game at OAK -170 now (up from -145 open) despite most of the money looking like it’s still coming in on TEX.

    Most of the $ isn’t coming in on Tex.

  • winsome

    @tgerty117546 said...

    How often does Vogt sit day games after playing the night before?

    Likely DH with RH on the bump

  • sharksbay

    What are the chances that vogt is in the lineup?

  • bjk121

    @sharksbay said...

    What are the chances that vogt is in the lineup?

    Pretty solid considering he will probably be the DH today.

  • sharksbay

    Thx. Sorry I just saw the other post.

  • fantasybender

    @dre87 said...

    61% of the moneyline bets are on TEX

    That is only half of the story. The line moving against the public side usually means that 39% of bettors are betting more than the 61% betting on TEX

  • whitnall

    Tarp on field, looks like a delay

  • 08Gary08

    I’m hoping early slate Sea@Cle game is a blowout. I want the score to be around 11-10 or something in that area!!

  • catt0025

    I’d rather have the delay to start the game than in the middle for sure. Hopefully it’s a short delay and they can start before anything else pops up.

  • 08Gary08

    Weather is good in Atlanta until about 1pm it’s %50 thunder storms!

  • dre87

    @TheGreatBallington said...

    That is only half of the story. The line moving against the public side usually means that 39% of bettors are betting more than the 61% betting on TEX

    Yes, exactly. The line is moving toward OAK, even with most bets coming on TEX, meaning most of the larger-betting sharp $ is on OAK, while the smaller-betting general public $ is on TEX, at least in theory. I take that to mean the sharps are looking at the same peripheral stats and seeing the likely regression, while the general public is just looking at the ERA through 14 or so innings. That’s how I read it, anyway.

  • realdeals

    @TheGreatBallington said...

    That is only half of the story. The line moving against the public side usually means that 39% of bettors are betting more than the 61% betting on TEX

    Exactly

  • realdeals

    @dre87 said...

    Yes, exactly. The line is moving toward OAK, even with most bets coming on TEX, meaning most of the larger-betting sharp $ is on OAK, while the smaller-betting general public $ is on TEX, at least in theory. I take that to mean the sharps are looking at the same peripheral stats and seeing the likely regression, while the general public is just looking at the ERA through 14 or so innings. That’s how I read it, anyway.

    Yeah, also Oak has 67% of the run line bets. Vegasinsider.com is the best site I know of for odds/line movement

  • realdeals

    Cano is long overdue to go yard

  • Dallas0827

    @realdeals said...

    Yeah, also Oak has 67% of the run line bets. Vegasinsider.com is the best site I know of for odds/line movement

    This information is not correct. There is no sports book online that will give this info out.
    take this for what it is worth. There is no way to determine where the sharp money is going.

  • realdeals

    @Dallas0827 said...

    This information is not correct. There is no sports book online that will give this info out.
    take this for what it is worth. There is no way to determine where the sharp money is going.

    That’s not what my post said. I can’t 100% sure say on their accuracy, but vegasinsider has the % bets placed. Yes, you can figure out who the sharp $ is on, it’s not hard to figure it out for NFL and NBA. MLB is a little trickier with Runline. Ex: If GS opens at -2 and line closes at -3.5 but Cle has > 50% of the bets. It’s obvious sharp $ is on GS while the public is on Cle.
    Unless you’re one of those that believe books move line opposite of where majority of $ is coming in…

  • Dallas0827

    @realdeals said...

    That’s not what my post said. I can’t 100% sure say on their accuracy, but vegasinsider has the % bets placed. Yes, you can figure out who the sharp $ is on, it’s not hard to figure it out for NFL and NBA. MLB is a little trickier with Runline. Ex: If GS opens at -2 and line closes at -3.5 but Cle has > 50% of the bets. It’s obvious sharp $ is on GS while the public is on Cle.
    Unless you’re one of those that believe books move line opposite of where majority of $ is coming in…

    If it was that easy, every gambler would just follow the sharp line moves and be profitable. no sportsbook gives their betting percentages. the only true way to get a semi-accurate number, is to look at covers. premium line services like sports options do not even give an accurate betting percentage. not trying to argue, just trying to save you years of what it took me to figure out. lol

  • realdeals

    Agree, not arguing. Assuming what I said is correct (have no clue if vegasinsiders %s is accurate) you couldn’t just follow the sharps and automatically be profitable, you won’t get the same # as them. Most likely you’d get 3 or 3.5 with my example above. I have a good friend who works at sports options, I’ll ask him on the %s. Def a good service. I’ve had it before, but don’t bet anymore except for the SB.

  • IronMonkey415

    Took a chance with Happ and Cashner in the early game, I’m dead before it even started

  • ElSlappo

    Dammit I completely ignored Marcum but had plenty of Happ. Smart.

  • cAUmberlandtiger8

    Picking out 2 pitchers tonight is Russian Roulette. Ill be happy if my two can get a combined 10-15 points. I have Harper, Stanton and Trout in the OF with $500 left. Just silly.

  • MikeMineo

    why was Teheran charged for 3ER when one came directly via catcher’s interference and the other was via a passed ball?

    At the very least, the passed ball run should be unearned according to definition – http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_run

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