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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:05 PM EST : Kansas City ( 104 ) at Baltimore ( -113 ) —- T: 9
    7:05 PM EST : LA Angels ( 141 ) at NY Yankees ( -153 ) —- T: 8
    7:05 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( -245 ) at Philadelphia ( 223 ) —- T: 8
    7:05 PM EST : NY Mets ( -112 ) at Pittsburgh ( 104 ) —- T: 8
    7:10 PM EST : Toronto ( 106 ) at Detroit ( -115 ) —- T: 9
    8:05 PM EST : Houston ( 102 ) at Texas ( -110 ) —- T: 9.5
    9:40 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -126 ) at Arizona ( 116 ) —- T: 9
    10:10 PM EST : Cleveland ( 103 ) at Seattle ( -111 ) —- T: 8.5
    10:10 PM EST : Atlanta ( 122 ) at San Diego ( -132 ) —- T: 7.5
    10:10 PM EST : Colorado ( 128 ) at LA Dodgers ( -139 ) —- T: 7.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. Please make it a point to say if you’re talking about Cash or GPP options.

  • xdan3220

    @bigsmoot2 said...

    When constructing a lineup does BvP carry much value with anyone?

    Yeah I think it is valuable as long as you use it correctly. On nights I’m looking for a punt play I’ve found it pretty valuable if I see a cheap player has had a lot of success against that starting pitcher. It can also be useful in picking pitchers if you see that a guy has struggled against a lineup in the past, and it’s a nice tie breaker if you have a couple guys you like. Just have to keep things like sample size in mind, and be aware of the pitcher, I may not care if a guy has terrible BvP numbers against say Adam Wainwright because he isn’t quite the same guy anymore.

  • ericgeo18

    A lot of folks are recommending Shoemaker based on his last few starts and clearly he seems to be one of the better options tonight against what is considered a weak and struggling Yankees offense, but…Vegas has the Yankees scoring over 4.5 runs and the Yankees are -150 favorites. What am I missing? Why are the Yankees favored by so much?

  • bigsmoot2

    @xdan3220 said...

    Yeah I think it is valuable as long as you use it correctly. On nights I’m looking for a punt play I’ve found it pretty valuable if I see a cheap player has had a lot of success against that starting pitcher. It can also be useful in picking pitchers if you see that a guy has struggled against a lineup in the past, and it’s a nice tie breaker if you have a couple guys you like. Just have to keep things like sample size in mind, and be aware of the pitcher, I may not care if a guy has terrible BvP numbers against say Adam Wainwright because he isn’t quite the same guy anymore.

    Yeah, using it as a tiebreaker on a punt play is a good idea. Thanks for the insight.

  • paulmsr

    @ericgeo18 said...

    Why are the Yankees favored by so much?

    Tanaka and the Angels suck worse, especially if Pujols is out of lineup

  • nta87

    Gattis all day eh?

  • ericgeo18

    @paulmsr said...

    Tanaka and the Angels suck worse, especially if Pujols is out of lineup

    OK, but why then does Vegas see them with 4.67 runs? The O/U should be 7.5 if both team’s offenses aren’t great, not 8.5. I don’t know, seems like a trap for the Shoemaker owners (meaning: me).

  • electrichaz3

    There are so many teams to stack, but the tigers especially all have a point/dollar of well over 3. All expected to crush and fairly underpriced. also im going with friedrich and any bats i want. I think he goes 6 and gets the W vs ATL tonight.

  • electrichaz3

    @nta87 said...

    Gattis all day eh?

    victor martinez is significantly better value from a points/dollar standpoint. Same with Mccan and perez. I have Gattis at my 4th ranked catcher on the night behind those 3 and wieters in 5th.

  • tjchip28

    @ericgeo18 said...

    OK, but why then does Vegas see them with 4.67 runs? The O/U should be 7.5 if both team’s offenses aren’t great, not 8.5. I don’t know, seems like a trap for the Shoemaker owners (meaning: me).

    You have a left handed heavy lineup in a park that increases home runs to LHB by 30%, against a pitcher with a 40% career fly ball rate that historically has struggled away from home.

  • hobbes2d

    @electrichaz3 said...

    There are so many teams to stack, but the tigers especially all have a point/dollar of well over 3. All expected to crush and fairly underpriced. also im going with friedrich and any bats i want. I think he goes 6 and gets the W vs ATL tonight.

    definitely a lot of ways you can go tonight.

  • Mindofigor

    Jason castro.

    you’re welcome

  • jdog32310

    Struggling with pitcher choice. I like both lineups but I only play 1 cash/GPP lineup. So which would be best. Chatwood or fullmer ?? Thanks

    Might just use both

  • RollinNolan

    Cano/Hosmer or Miggy/Odor?

  • jordan200580

    Seems like people are choosing to fade Lester and Matz for value at pitching tonight. Is there a reason to be off of those two?

  • manunited23

    I like Miggy and Cano

  • kirby34

    Merrifield, Cain, or Mazara in cash games on FD?

  • electrichaz3

    @jordan

    I dont think there is enough of a difference in ceiling between the value pitchers vs the top end pitchers.

  • tristanwolf

    @jdog32310 said...

    Struggling with pitcher choice. I like both lineups but I only play 1 cash/GPP lineup. So which would be best. Chatwood or fullmer ?? Thanks

    Might just use both

    i like fulmer tonight, has been great and great at home last outing. sprinkled a little shoemaker in as my 3rd choice , after Lester

  • mabrla

    The weather in PIT sucks. I wanted to play Niese.

  • hobbes2d

    I know the Tigers hit lefties well but Happ isn’t exactly a bum. Seems like there’s some much better stacking opportunities at a lower price out there.

  • draggin49

    @mabrla
    lookin that bad in pitt? I was lookin at niese as well.hmmm

  • onepinrodney

    @ericgeo18 said...

    Why are the Yankees favored by so much?

    Because the line is determined initially by how they think betting will trend and changes during the day by how it actually does trend. The casinos want as close to even money on each team as they can get, so they get a guaranteed 10% no risk rake no matter who wins. The Yankees and Red Sox are always overpriced because they are the most popular teams with casual bettors.

  • mabrla

    @draggin49 said...

    @mabrla
    lookin that bad in pitt? I was lookin at niese as well.hmmm

    Waiting on the Roth report.

  • BigRay

    @mabrla said...

    My favorite thing in the world is reverse-split pitchers vs. reverse-split batters. Always low owned…and super good plays.

    It does amaze me how overlooked these players are by the prognosticators..

  • jon2anderson

    • Blogger of the Month

    Need a final entrant for a $2 6 man league.. DK.. Somebody post their handle and you’re in thanks!

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