MLB FORUM

Comments

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    7:08 PM EST : NY Yankees ( -137 ) at Washington ( 126 ) —- T: 7.5
    10:08 PM EST : SF Giants ( 247 ) at LA Dodgers ( -277 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • thedkexperience

    @BrianVT said...

    Won a ticket for the Thursday night $10 – MLB Million. Never played an MLB DK contest in my life, as it’s way too much data for me to keep-up with as a hobby, but going to go ahead and play the opposite of the consensus in here as I only have the one lotto ticket entry. Thanks for the input guys! Keep it coming!

    If you’re going for broke on the 2 game slate the move is to use Cueto. It’s likely gonna ensure that you get absolutely no return on your $10 but in the Dr Strange 14 million futures way more than one of them end up with Cueto throwing 7 strong innings and getting a win.

    It’s easy to look at this like a football mismatch on the level of Alabama vs Rutgers but in reality the crappy SF Giants are still going to win 25 games this season and the Dodgers will likely lose more than 20 themselves. In fact I would wager good money right now that the Giants do beat the Dodgers at some point this season, so tomorrow is as good a day as any.

    Even when things are “locks” in MLB things will go horrendously sideways 30% of the time. That’s baseball and that’s variance.

    Anyway, the most contrarian thing you can do is probably playing Cueto and stacking Nats against Cole. I don’t advise playing players against your pitcher so probably avoid using Dodgers and Giants bats will be surprisingly popular due to price savings. So just throw a bunch of Yankees in a stack with your Nats and hope that arguably the two best pitchers in the world get rocked.

    That’s the contrarian thing to do on this slate.

    This is truly awful advice. I want to stress that. What I just said is a highway to last place.

    I’m also now going to do this on at least one lineup because I like winning GPPs.

  • thedkexperience

    @AdamBski said...

    Is it crazy to consider using Kershaw and then throwing a dart on a RP from the Dodgers as well? Kershaw should do what he does but how long is he even gonna be out there for? I’m thinking that might be the key to take this Thursday slate down… or I don’t know what the F*** I’m talking about….

    Honestly I wouldn’t do it and I do crazy stuff with my lineups. Scherzer and Cole both have so much upside that it’s impossible for me to think getting a handful of points in 1 inning from a reliever is the way to go. Price savings are great but when your upside is 1 inning, 3Ks and a prayer of a vulture win (which you would still need from Kershaw so it’s a wash really) versus 6 innings and 6 Ks each minimum.

    For this to work it requires so many moving parts. Also, and maybe most importantly, the only way it works correctly is if you use the cost savings and spend it on a player who goes nuts.

    Stick with starters.

  • monarch

    The old reliever as a SP2. That’s my move!

    It rarely works but when it does you feel like the smartest person in the world and it does work sometimes. Ill say this…Mad Max can give up HRs in bunches which are more valuable than seven mediocre innings from Kershaw against a Giants team that doesn’t K a whole lot. Ill do some Cole+reliever+Dodger stacks with Yankees one offs.

  • thedkexperience

    I just took my free FD $10 and made a LU that’s utterly preposterous.

  • bure10

    Just try to be optimal on 1 out of 3 and then go wild on the other two for your risk free LUs

  • BrianVT

    @thedkexperience said...

    Anyway, the most contrarian thing you can do is probably playing Cueto and stacking Nats against Cole. I don’t advise playing players against your pitcher so probably avoid using Dodgers and Giants bats will be surprisingly popular due to price savings. So just throw a bunch of Yankees in a stack with your Nats and hope that arguably the two best pitchers in the world get rocked.

    Yep, this is exactly what I built so far. Amazing what types of Nats and Yankees you can get when you start with Cueto. Threw one Dodger in as well.

    Trust me, I know about variance – I only play PGA and NASCAR.

    The main reason I’ve always hated baseball (non-DFS related) is that it seems like every game boils down to who is pitching that night. One team can crush somebody 9-1 and then lose the next night vs. same team with a different pitcher 7-0. Just never something I could get into, at least at the pro level. So, I guess I’ll watch scrub pitcher of the night prove me wrong.

  • thedkexperience

    @BrianVT said...

    Yep, this is exactly what I built so far. Amazing what types of Nats and Yankees you can get when you start with Cueto. Threw one Dodger in as well.

    Trust me, I know about variance – I only play PGA and NASCAR.

    The main reason I’ve always hated baseball (non-DFS related) is that it seems like every game boils down to who is pitching that night. One team can crush somebody 9-1 and then lose the next night vs. same team with a different pitcher 7-0. Just never something I could get into, at least at the pro level. So, I guess I’ll watch scrub pitcher of the night prove me wrong.

    The way to win baseball GPPs is to identify the game that will go off the rails against the over under. For example …

    It’s typical to see an NFL over under at about 49.5, but you’ll see a final combined score of double that about once a decade.

    You’ll see NBA over unders each night in the 220s. You can live a lifetime before you’ll see 440 points scored in an NBA game.

    Meanwhile in MLB you’ll see 10 run over unders nearly every night, and to see that score doubled you have to wait … um … a day? Maybe? Maybe 2 days? Not long. You’ll probably see a game with 20 runs scored on it on opening day. You’ll probably see an over under tripled within a week. In baseball the over goes way, way, way off the rails.

    So just find that game and you’ll score a bazillion points on offense but, as you pointed out you also gotta get your pitcher right.

    In short … if you’re trying to take down a GPP try to lock in one one team that you think will go absolutely ham on someone and get as many shares as you can of that lineup.

    Just don’t be wrong 🤣

  • BrianVT

    @thedkexperience said...

    In short … if you’re trying to take down a GPP try to lock in one one team that you think will go absolutely ham on someone and get as many shares as you can of that lineup.

    Just don’t be wrong 🤣

    Yea, and I imagine someone will have every combination of ham team and correct pitcher combos you can have since it’s 150 max with only two games going on. That’s another aspect of these other DFS sports that are strange to me. At least with golf, there’s 150 guys all playing the same position with a huge range of salaries and like millions of different combinations possible under the $50k salary.

  • BrianVT

    @bure10 said...

    Just try to be optimal on 1 out of 3 and then go wild on the other two for your risk free LUs

    What’s your crystal ball have for optimal guys?

  • laser1000000

    I wouldn’t be afraid to use bats against my pitcher on a two game slate for the season opener. None of these pitchers is likely to go more than six, so even they pitch lights out, there’s a chance their bullpen gets lit up. I’m definitely not shying away from using Cole and playing, say, Soto against him. There just aren’t enough options to write off one team on a two game slate.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @BrianVT said...

    Won a ticket for the Thursday night $10 – MLB Million. Never played an MLB DK contest in my life, as it’s way too much data for me to keep-up with as a hobby, but going to go ahead and play the opposite of the consensus in here as I only have the one lotto ticket entry. Thanks for the input guys! Keep it coming!

    DK is running the exact same $10 entry, 250K to 1st, 1 million pool, 117K entries contest Thursday and Friday. Your ticket should be usable for both. Mine all are. Maybe you prefer to use it for the 2 game slate since it’s more streamlined options wise, but you should be able to use it for Fridays 11 game slate too. Only mentioning this, because you specifically mentioned Thursday night.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @laser1000000 said...

    I wouldn’t be afraid to use bats against my pitcher on a two game slate for the season opener. None of these pitchers is likely to go more than six, so even they pitch lights out, there’s a chance their bullpen gets lit up. I’m definitely not shying away from using Cole and playing, say, Soto against him. There just aren’t enough options to write off one team on a two game slate.

    Yup. Probably no need to get too wild, but it wouldn’t be out of this world for say, Cueto to pitch 5 solid innings, then the Giants bullpen to get walloped. There were tons of times last year where a starter pitched really well for 6 innings, then the bullpen came in and got hammered and gave up 8 runs.

    Not to mention things like a HR allowed is only -2 for your pitcher, but a solo HR will be +14 for your hitter, for still a +12 difference in scoring.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @BrianVT said...

    What’s your crystal ball have for optimal guys?

    Hard to predict optimal guys, but if I was putting it all on 1 line up, it’d have something like, Cole/Kershaw, a SF punt, 4 or 5 Dodgers than HR hunt for 2 or 3 Yankees. Like, Heineman, Crawford, or Dubon, from SF, then some 2 or 3 combo of Sanchez, Judge, Stanton, Voit, Torres, then whatever Dodgers you can fit with that.

  • monarch

    Game theory regarding the bullpen…..

    Since this is a 60 game sprint and most bullpens should be completely stocked and fresh should we expect that those crazy 8th and 9th innings where the visiting team bats around against the other teams positional player are far less likely to happen? My A’s were notorious for scoring like three runs in the first seven innings then beating the piss out of opponents bullpen on the road in the final game of a series with the game out of hand. Probably doesn’t happen as much this season is my guess do to the dynamics.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @monarch said...

    Game theory regarding the bullpen…..

    Since this is a 60 game sprint and most bullpens should be completely stocked and fresh should we expect that those crazy 8th and 9th innings where the visiting team bats around against the other teams positional player are far less likely to happen? My A’s were notorious for scoring like three runs in the first seven innings then beating the piss out of opponents bullpen on the road in the final game of a series with the game out of hand. Probably doesn’t happen as much this season is my guess do to the dynamics.

    I can’t say for sure, but have my doubts it’ll be any different.

    Some teams just have bad bullpens. The amount of games played doesn’t change whether a pen is good or bad. Most teams do have at least 1 or 2 solid relievers, but they can’t pitch everyday and they can’t pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th. It’ll take some time to identify the truly bad pens, because so many relievers have up and down years, and short life spans as quality arms. In the end though a bad pen is a bad pen, and every team needs there’s and it doesn’t matter if they’ve played 1 game or 100.

  • BrianVT

    @Pandamonious said...

    Only mentioning this, because you specifically mentioned Thursday night.

    My ticket specifically said Thursday night. I think it was some kind of opening night thing they were running.

    As to your other posts, it sounds like I could just go completely random and have as good a chance as any, with all of these like reliever possibilities, plus the all of the Murphy’s Law type of scenarios.

    Does the rest of the team ever get replaced, or just pitchers? Seems obvious, but just making sure I ask. Haven’t watched baseball since Cal Ripken.

  • laser1000000

    @Pandamonious said...

    Hard to predict optimal guys, but if I was putting it all on 1 line up, it’d have something like, Cole/Kershaw, a SF punt, 4 or 5 Dodgers than HR hunt for 2 or 3 Yankees. Like, Heineman, Crawford, or Dubon, from SF, then some 2 or 3 combo of Sanchez, Judge, Stanton, Voit, Torres, then whatever Dodgers you can fit with that.

    This. But for my SF Giant, as a long time Mets fan, I would play Wilmer Flores against any lefty, even Kershaw.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @laser1000000 said...

    This. But for my SF Giant, as a long time Mets fan, I would play Wilmer Flores against any lefty, even Kershaw.

    Yeah, Flores is fine too. I only mentioned those 3, because 1 is a catcher, which is always puntable and the other 3 are the cheapest, at positions where going cheap is relatively common. Really any of the cheap Giants could work, and they’re all cheap.

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @BrianVT said...

    My ticket specifically said Thursday night. I think it was some kind of opening night thing they were running.

    As to your other posts, it sounds like I could just go completely random and have as good a chance as any, with all of these like reliever possibilities, plus the all of the Murphy’s Law type of scenarios.

    Does the rest of the team ever get replaced, or just pitchers? Seems obvious, but just making sure I ask. Haven’t watched baseball since Cal Ripken.

    Ah, OK. I don’t think I’d seen that or have those. I just knew I played a bunch of MLB satellites for the $10 contests and they seemed to be interchangeable.

    Unless something unforeseen like an injury or ejection, guys usually stay in the whole game. Now, guys do get pinch run or pinch hit for in later innings and sometimes if the game blows out guys will get replaced. It’s not something to usually count on. Some guys are more notorious for getting pinch hit for. Like a right-handed bat that smashes left-handed pitching might get the start against a lefty, but as soon as they come up against a righty they’ll get pinch-hit for. No one from the 2 games Thursday jumps out other than maybe Pederson from LA, as a high pinch hit risk.

  • stellagirl

    Thur night is just a free for all lottery, ridiculous crap shoot.

    My guess is, the winning LU has a deep bomb (or two) from a bench player (or two), a bomb or two against the LU winning starting pitcher, and on DK, possibly even a relief pitcher in the LU.

    In short….. $4 bucks in quarters across DK and FD, and $9 of “can’t lose cash back” on DK.

    Dat’s all for me, folks!

  • ferrara316

    Anyone thinking of playing Kendrys Morales at 2k so you can fit every possible stud in the lineup? Obviously gonna be a 0 but who knows how this slate will go lol

  • gridironguru99

    It will be very interesting to see just how many of us are broke/unemployed and how the “pros” end up coming back. Some of the larger $ contests on DK/FD have big pools and I’d imagine they will pull a fast one on us and change the contests to avoid massive overlay tomorrow and Friday. They won’t leave money on the table.

  • thedkexperience

    @ferrara316 said...

    Anyone thinking of playing Kendrys Morales at 2k so you can fit every possible stud in the lineup? Obviously gonna be a 0 but who knows how this slate will go lol

    In short no. 🤣

    Honestly, I was looking at DK lineup structure last night and it seems that if you spend about 20K on pitching on any slate you’re going to need to find 2 or 3 near minimum players to even field a lineup as the average pricing seems higher to me than in past seasons (which could just be placebo cause it’s been like a full year since we’ve actually been able to play).

  • HoodsFromTheWood

    @Pandamonious said...

    Some teams just have bad bullpens. The amount of games played doesn’t change whether a pen is good or bad. Most teams do have at least 1 or 2 solid relievers, but they can’t pitch everyday and they can’t pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th. It’ll take some time to identify the truly bad pens

    The new Pitcher Rule, each one has to face at least 3 batters, could really expose the “bad” bullpens. Maybe keeping that SP in for that elusive 6th inning (lol) more this year than in the past????

  • thedkexperience

    @Hoods From The Wood said...

    The new Pitcher Rule, each one has to face at least 3 batters, could really expose the “bad” bullpens. Maybe keeping that SP in for that elusive 6th inning (lol) more this year than in the past????

    Grain of salt here but I’m nearly 90 games of Diamond Dynasty into this year on MLB The Show. The 3 batter rule absolutely changes a few things in that game.

    You will definitely see some decision making going on in that treacherous 6th inning. Some starters will be given a longer leash for certain, and I expect a lot of lefty pitchers to be used with 2 outs in the inning to circumvent the 3 batter requirement.

    Furthermore if managers have the ability to go R, L, R, L etc in their lineup and don’t they will find out quickly that they should be for no other reason then trying to catch a team with a sub par pitching split in the game.

    Long story short, I expect it to have a pretty big impact in real life but for DFS it probably just means a few more outings with 5.1 or 5.2 IP then 5 IP so it’ll likely be negligible for us.

    Edit – that said if you combine it in the NL with the new DH we could see those NL pitchers getting 6.1 or 6.2 IP a lot more than they would have before.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

Subforum Index

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).