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  • bhdevault

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    2:20 PM EST : Chi Sox ( 245 ) at Chi Cubs ( -270 ) —- T: —
    7:05 PM EST : Houston ( -161 ) at Philadelphia ( 148 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:07 PM EST : Oakland ( 134 ) at Toronto ( -145 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : Kansas City ( 136 ) at Detroit ( -147 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : Baltimore ( 111 ) at Tampa Bay ( -120 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 172 ) at Cleveland ( -187 ) —- T: 9.5
    8:05 PM EST : Miami ( 130 ) at Texas ( -141 ) —- T: 11
    8:08 PM EST : Colorado ( 137 ) at St. Louis ( -149 ) —- T: 9
    9:40 PM EST : Atlanta ( 173 ) at Arizona ( -188 ) —- T: 9
    10:10 PM EST : NY Mets ( -161 ) at San Diego ( 148 ) —- T: 7.5
    10:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( 213 ) at LA Dodgers ( -233 ) —- T: 9.5
    10:10 PM EST : Boston ( 137 ) at Seattle ( -149 ) —- T: 8.5
    10:15 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( -145 ) at SF Giants ( 134 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • madmanjayWV

    Weird slate of games today deGrom seems like a lock, could be a trap.

    Gonna be a ton of runs scored on this slate — might be best to try and find a Matthew Boyd type bum, pray for the best and load up on bats.

  • superjon

    I like Degrom and Paxton for top tier pitchers. For cheap option I like Hammel.

    I also like a D-Back stack

  • yountingly

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    @superjon said...

    I like Degrom and Paxton for top tier pitchers. For cheap option I like Hammel.

    I also like a D-Back stack

    Hammel doesn’t strike anyone out. I’d rather take a shot with Gausman on the lower part of mid tier.

    It’s not a strong pitching slate. Might need to consider some risky options as an sp2 to DeGrom.

  • superjon

    @yountingly said...

    Hammel doesn’t strike anyone out. I’d rather take a shot with Gausman on the lower part of mid tier.

    It’s not a strong pitching slate. Might need to consider some risky options as an sp2 to DeGrom.

    Sure. But DET strikes out quite a bit, and Hammell has a pretty good SS% and low HC%

    He can easily get 30+ and at super low ownership I’ll take the risk on him and hope some of the chalkier options bust.

  • smokeyca14

    Will bartolo colon end up with positive points?

  • mcgruffthecrimedog

    @smokeyca14 said...

    Will bartolo colon end up with positive points?

    Yes, when I decide to stack against him.

  • DSofM

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    @smokeyca14 said...

    Will bartolo colon end up with positive points?

    I sure hope so

  • DSofM

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    @superjon said...

    I like Degrom and Paxton for top tier pitchers. For cheap option I like Hammel.

    I also like a D-Back stack

    I dont see much upside in Paxton, Red Sox have been owning lefties this year and do not strike out much at all.

  • pick6er

    Weak pitching today. DeGrom just seems overpriced and has been thumped lately. I rolled Cole out his last outing vs MIL and was very pleased but don’t see his success continuing. Paxton has a tough one tonight. Peacock looks like the biggest lock to me but Philly has been heating up and his price just keeps rising, deservingly.

    Honestly would not be surprised to see someone like Colon in the winning lineup. Due for that shocker game and none better than against LAD at like 1% ownership lol.

  • bucherpsu08

    Verlander vs KC in 3 starts this year:
    21 IP
    6 ER
    19Ks

    Will prob pair him with Gausman in most of my lineups.

  • NarrowJ

    I recently spent some time reviewing optimal lineups vs. winning lineups and was quite surprised to see that while the winning lineups usually contain a stack of 3-4 hitters, that the optimal lineups usually do not have more than 2 players from the same team. In many cases, the optimal lineup outscores the lineups that actually win tournaments by a very large margin (sometimes the optimal is 300+ points and people are winning tournaments with hitters stacks scoring around 210-230 points).

    On one hand, I think it’s just insurmountably difficult to pick all of the best hitters at each position to get that 300 score. But then, I also think I could just pick 6 of the 8 best hitters and even if I got zeroes for the other two slots I’d still end up with about 250 points.

    There has to have been an article written about this somewhere, yeah? This has kind of made me want to quit stacking and just start using an optimizer instead, but then there’s a reason why all of the best guys out there are still stacking, so I’m wondering where I might find someone who has put more time into this issue than I have, because I’m really trying to wrap my head around this a bit more.

  • pick6er

    @NarrowJ said...

    I recently spent some time reviewing optimal lineups vs. winning lineups and was quite surprised to see that while the winning lineups usually contain a stack of 3-4 hitters, that the optimal lineups usually do not have more than 2 players from the same team. In many cases, the optimal lineup outscores the lineups that actually win tournaments by a very large margin (sometimes the optimal is 300+ points and people are winning tournaments with hitters stacks scoring around 210-230 points).

    On one hand, I think it’s just insurmountably difficult to pick all of the best hitters at each position to get that 300 score. But then, I also think I could just pick 6 of the 8 best hitters and even if I got zeroes for the other two slots I’d still end up with about 250 points.

    There has to have been an article written about this somewhere, yeah? This has kind of made me want to quit stacking and just start using an optimizer instead, but then there’s a reason why all of the best guys out there are still stacking, so I’m wondering where I might find someone who has put more time into this issue than I have, because I’m really trying to wrap my head around this a bit more.

    Interesting post. I normally do a lot of 2 player stacks, 3 if they’re up against a gas can. I’ve only had minimal success with stacking 4 batters from one team. My biggest lineups in baseball featured 2 players or less from 1 individual team excluding pitchers.

  • bucherpsu08

    You are comparing an optimal lineup post contest vs a winning lineup that was made precontest. Of course there is going to be large discrepancy. Take a look at precontest optimals on several sites compared to the post contest optimal and note how far off they are. It’s much easier to identify teams that are going to put up a lot of runs opposed to individual players with big scores across every game.

  • bucherpsu08

    Let’s use DFSN as an example from yesterday. Their optimal precontest lineup (all day) was projected at 132.6 on DK. The actual result of that lineup was 99.6. The post contest optimal for the day yielded 280.15 and not a single player from the precontest optimal was in the post contest optimal lineup.

  • mcgruffthecrimedog

    Here’s the thing. If you;re going to mass enter contests like most pros do, then you can stack teams. But if you;re only doing a couple of entries, you;re prob better off throwing a dart at just predicting best players at each spot. Either way it;s a crap shoot for the players that enter few lineups.

  • NarrowJ

    I’m not saying I want to just use whatever optimal lineup I can grab from some website. I would enter my own projections and then optimize. I have had good luck optimizing in both NFL and NBA, but learning MLB it was really drilled into my brain that I needed to stack hitters. What you say regarding it being easier to identify teams vs individual players is more what I was getting at.

  • DontTrustTheProcess

    @bucherpsu08 said...

    You are comparing an optimal lineup post contest vs a winning lineup that was made precontest. Of course there is going to be large discrepancy. Take a look at precontest optimals on several sites compared to the post contest optimal and note how far off they are. It’s much easier to identify teams that are going to put up a lot of runs opposed to individual players with big scores across every game.

    Thank you. I was just going to post something like this. The pre contest lineups aren’t even close to the actual winning lineups. It’s easy to see optimal lineups AFTER the games. LOL.

  • DontTrustTheProcess

    So is everyone not mentioning Peacock today because of the Phillies current hitting streak?

  • DSofM

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    @DontTrustTheProcess said...

    So is everyone not mentioning Peacock today because of the Phillies current hitting streak?

    theyre trying to hide the secret playz

  • bucherpsu08

    @DontTrustTheProcess said...

    So is everyone not mentioning Peacock today because of the Phillies current hitting streak?

    I hate that price on DK (11.5). I can see a lot of people paying the extra 400 for Grienke if they are paying up that high tonight.

  • NarrowJ

    @DontTrustTheProcess said...

    Thank you. I was just going to post something like this. The pre contest lineups aren’t even close to the actual winning lineups. It’s easy to see optimal lineups AFTER the games. LOL.

    Second person to completely miss the point. Maybe I didn’t explain it well enough, though.

    Don’t you want the highest score possible when you’re filling out your lineups? I’m saying hitter stacks doesn’t seem to be the way to do that. But yet, people still win with them pretty much every day it seems. That’s the discussion I was trying to have- stacking vs. not stacking.

  • hpatel1089

    watch Liriano throw a 50 burger today

  • jon2anderson

    • Blogger of the Month

    here’s my blog post with my thoughts on the slate tonight, hope people are reading these haha

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/7-24-mlb-slate-analysis-1993534

  • ElSlappo

    @jon2anderson said...

    here’s my blog post with my thoughts on the slate tonight, hope people are reading these haha

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/7-24-mlb-slate-analysis-1993534

    Nice article, thanks

  • w3junky

    @NarrowJ said...

    Second person to completely miss the point. Maybe I didn’t explain it well enough, though.

    Don’t you want the highest score possible when you’re filling out your lineups? I’m saying hitter stacks doesn’t seem to be the way to do that. But yet, people still win with them pretty much every day it seems. That’s the discussion I was trying to have- stacking vs. not stacking.

    It’s easier to predict a stack than it is individual players from separate teams. So yes, individual players are always more ideal for overall score but stacking is easier to predict.

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