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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    6:05 PM EST : Atlanta ( 139 ) at Philadelphia ( -151 ) —- T: 9
    7:10 PM EST : Washington ( -122 ) at NY Mets ( 113 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:10 PM EST : Chi Sox ( -146 ) at Detroit ( 134 ) —- T: 9
    8:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( -110 ) at Milwaukee ( 101 ) —- T: 8
    8:40 PM EST : Arizona ( 121 ) at Colorado ( -131 ) —- T: 12
    9:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 153 ) at Texas ( -167 ) —- T: 9
    9:40 PM EST : San Diego ( 156 ) at LA Dodgers ( -170 ) —- T: 8
    9:40 PM EST : Oakland ( -121 ) at LA Angels ( 112 ) —- T: 9.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • axman15

    First look, I’m going to be heavy on Keuchel, Dobnak, and Gibson tonight.

  • ifthethunder

    @axman15 said...

    First look, I’m going to be heavy on Keuchel, Dobnak, and Gibson tonight.

    White Sox at Tigers might have rain issues, tho.
    ~

  • cheezpizza

    @ifthethunder said...

    White Sox at Tigers might have rain issues, tho.
    ~

    Where are you seeing rain issues?
    The numbers i read said 5% at first pitch. And 20% for the day.

  • ifthethunder

    @cheezpizza said...

    Where are you seeing rain issues?
    The numbers i read said 5% at first pitch. And 20% for the day.

    CHW @ DET – Models showing a line of storm arriving in-game. Still plenty of hours to figure out the timing here, but if current models are right it’s a definite delay and possible PPD.” – Kevin Roth

    https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb
    ~

  • Pandamonious

    • 976

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    So D-Backs starting line up going to be like 50% owned on DK?

  • circadudexl

    Can anyone provide me with the link to the 3-5 dollar main contest from FanDuel from 8/5 if possible. Thanks

  • ifthethunder

    @Pandamonious said...

    So D-Backs starting line up going to be like 50% owned on DK?

    I have some Red Sox and a few Twins just to be weird. I mean different!
    ~

  • cheezpizza

    @ifthethunder said...

    CHW @ DET – Models showing a line of storm arriving in-game. Still plenty of hours to figure out the timing here, but if current models are right it’s a definite delay and possible PPD.” – Kevin Roth

    https://rotogrinders.com/weather/mlb
    ~

    I think Roth is wrong on this one. Im not seeing it.

  • Supersharpie

    @Pandamonious said...

    So D-Backs starting line up going to be like 50% owned on DK?

    I don’t think Coors is going to cure what ails AZ.

  • Jbodnar

    So DK is doing a series of single-entry contests this week with a leaderboard (and extra prize money) just based on the homers in your lineup. I’m guessing some portion of entrants are going to create homer-hunting lineups, maybe driving ownership up on one-off sluggers. Is there a sneaky strategy to exploit this (maybe just focusing on stacks), or is that overthinking it?

  • hautalak

    @Jbodnar said...

    Is there a sneaky strategy to exploit this (maybe just focusing on stacks), or is that overthinking it?

    Same boat… I’m looking at it this way, I think we get both. What I mean is depending on the “HR hitter guys” people select (hopefully high priced) we might get a nice advantage there with a “normal” lineup. Then at the same time the lineups with the HRs are usually the ones that win. Pitching performances this year aren’t what we’re used to.

    TLDR: I think we can be “sneaky” but not sure everybody is sacrificing the sanctity of their lineup.

  • RudyPujols

    DK has killed MLB Showdowns. I can handle the over-pricing of relief pitchers and sneaky long relief options. But would it kill them to offer a Single Entry or 3-Max? I don’t want to drop $50 or make 20 lineups or throw a single bullet at opponents’ 20 lineups. FFS, give me anything even if it is just the old $1 SE that would fill 1100-1800 entries like clockwork for the past couple years.

  • Pandamonious

    • 976

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @Supersharpie said...

    I don’t think Coors is going to cure what ails AZ.

    That D-backs line up isn’t that bad. They’ve yet to see anything resembling a favorable hitters park.

  • thedkexperience

    @Jbodnar said...

    So DK is doing a series of single-entry contests this week with a leaderboard (and extra prize money) just based on the homers in your lineup. I’m guessing some portion of entrants are going to create homer-hunting lineups, maybe driving ownership up on one-off sluggers. Is there a sneaky strategy to exploit this (maybe just focusing on stacks), or is that overthinking it?

    I’ve had a good season so far, winning one single entry out right and placing in the top 5 in a few others. What I’ve learned more than anything is that homer hunting is the way to go in these tournaments and that stacking has jumped the shark a bit.

    A few years ago people would argue that stacking is bad but over the last 2 years it’s gained acceptance that stacking in baseball is a great idea in all forms of games. In a vacuum I believe this to be true but I also think people have pivoted too far.

    Stacks should happen naturally after you’ve selected most of your lineup. Many times you may find that you‘ve chosen a team’s 1, 3 and 4 hitters because they were good options. Where things go sideways is that people will do this and say, “now I need to fit in that 2 hitter” when he may be in a bad matchup or, even worse, ignoring a one off player at the same or better price to jam in that last stack member.

    If you’re making dozens of lineups, I get it, but in a single entry? No thank you. You should be hunting homers in every spot you can.

    I had a good day on FD yesterday because I landed on a Padres stack. But I landed on them because each of those guys had a great matchup, not just because I was jamming in players based on lineup spot.

    For further info on this topic you can check out my never to be published DFS book right after the chapter on “stop making DFS baseball more complicated then it needs to be”.

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    Same boat… I’m looking at it this way, I think we get both. What I mean is depending on the “HR hitter guys” people select (hopefully high priced) we might get a nice advantage there with a “normal” lineup. Then at the same time the lineups with the HRs are usually the ones that win. Pitching performances this year aren’t what we’re used to.

    TLDR: I think we can be “sneaky” but not sure everybody is sacrificing the sanctity of their lineup.

    The best place to find homers is not at the top of the price list, it’s at the bottom of the OF price list. You can find 2-3 inexpensive OFs in good platoon spots on DK no problem. On FD you can find a lot more than that.

    Of course this means not playing Red Sox or Yankees at 35% ownership each day but people will keep doing that repeatedly.

    While I have not looked yet today, players like Shin Soo Choo are almost always over looked, and under priced even in positive match ups.

  • hautalak

    @thedkexperience said...

    While I have not looked yet today, players like Shin Soo Choo are almost always over looked, and under priced even in positive match ups.

    I like TEX today and have Choo shoed in a few so far. I have time for MLB today so 20 in the quarter and playing this HR leaderboard thing (to my disdain but it’s a nice SE contest lol)

  • joetw

    I think the reason stacking works is because it forces you on lower owned players. Sometimes you just land on the sub 3% double donger.

  • jayzee666

    I would play a SE tourney that adds up all the SOs in your LU. That in additional to no HRs, I would win that contest without any competition!

    Stay away from WASH and COL batters today. On paper and logically, they are in good matchups. That will be cancelled out once they land in my LUs.

    Maybe a few TEX batters will meet the REAPER tonight also!

  • thedkexperience

    Good god the pitching today is awful. I’m truly tempted just to lean into it and take Robbie Ray on the road in Coors.

  • thedkexperience

    @hautalak said...

    I like TEX today and have Choo shoed in a few so far. I have time for MLB today so 20 in the quarter and playing this HR leaderboard thing (to my disdain but it’s a nice SE contest lol)

    Play Choo any time he is in a R/L matchup against a non-all star starting pitcher and batting near the top of the lineup.

    I have zero idea if the spreadsheet matches up with my thought but it’s Sex Panther levels of accurate for me as 50% of the time Choo works 100% of the time.

    Other Sex Panther all stars include Joc Pederson, Jay Bruce, and any 40 homer hitter who hasn’t hit a homer in more than a week.

    Never play Pete Alonzo when he’s batting .345 and hit 6 homers in 4 days. Always play Pete Alonzo when he’s hitting .085 and hasn’t hit a homer in 5 days. People play to the back of their baseball card and they get there by running into a gas can who throws from the opposite side.

  • cheezpizza

    @thedkexperience said...

    Never play Pete Alonzo when he’s batting .345 and hit 6 homers in 4 days. Always play Pete Alonzo when he’s hitting .085 and hasn’t hit a homer in 5 days.

    I don’t like this gamblers logic. Sounds like the “due factor”, which doesnt exist.
    Pete could easily hit two more HR in the next game, in either situation. Each game is independent. Kind of like each spin of the roulette wheel is independent.
    Play what players matchup well, use your gut sometimes, and youll win something.

  • thedkexperience

    @cheezpizza said...

    I don’t like this gamblers logic. Sounds like the “due factor”, which doesnt exist.
    Pete could easily hit two more HR in the next game, in either situation. Each game is independent. Kind of like each spin of the roulette wheel is independent.
    Play what players matchup well, use your gut sometimes, and youll win something.

    The due factor in baseball absolutely 100% exists. In the absence of an injury or other unknown factor (like a bad divorce or PED usage) players play to the back of their baseball card like clockwork. Especially hitters.

    One of the reasons it does exist is because eventually a guy like Alonzo will face shitty pitching and get his. With the imbalanced schedule it may not be as pronounced but while you’re right that one spin on a roulette wheel does not have any baring on the next, your wildly inaccurate to assume that each baseball game is its own individual event.

    Being due 100% is a thing in DFS baseball. The art is deciding if the bill will come due today.

    For that matter it works the other way too. Aaron Judge hit 8 homers last week. The chances of him hitting even 1 homer this week are significantly less as he regresses to his career averages. Power in baseball is one of the most stable things in all of sports.

    Edit – this is simple positive and negative regression.

  • cheezpizza

    Its not though. Some guys have monster months. Not weeks. So to avoid a guy because he had a good week previously is foolish.

  • thedkexperience

    @cheezpizza said...

    Its not though. Some guys have monster months. Not weeks. So to avoid a guy because he had a good week previously is foolish.

    Yes but those monster months are offset by bad months which gets people back to their established career norms.

    And anyone coming off a monster week should be avoided because their pricing is inflated above established career norms.

  • thedkexperience

    Speaking of playing to career norms, I’m getting very close to locking in Robbie Ray today. He’s always been somewhat erratic but we’re talking 1.36 WHIP with a 4.20 ERA erratic, not worst pitcher in the majors, walks a guy every inning erratic.

    I double checked and he’s still hitting 94 on the gun so I’m ruling out an injury and going with the assumption that he just wasn’t ready this season. His K per 9 is near his career levels but he’s walking twice the batters as normally and giving up 4.1 homers per 9 instead of 1.3. This guy is DUE for a massive correction.

    While correcting anything on the mound in Colorado is treacherous to begin with, at least he’ll have low ownership.

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