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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    1:10 PM EST : Chi Sox ( -124 ) at Detroit ( 115 ) —- T: 9
    3:10 PM EST : Arizona ( -108 ) at Colorado ( -100 ) —- T: 12
    4:10 PM EST : Oakland ( -111 ) at LA Angels ( 103 ) —- T: 9
    6:10 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( 107 ) at Cleveland ( -115 ) —- T: 8
    6:37 PM EST : Miami ( 148 ) at Toronto ( -162 ) —- T: 8.5
    6:40 PM EST : Kansas City ( 108 ) at Cincinnati ( -117 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:05 PM EST : Baltimore ( 157 ) at Philadelphia ( -171 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( -138 ) at Milwaukee ( 127 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:30 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -157 ) at Boston ( 144 ) —- T: 8.5
    9:05 PM EST : Seattle ( 116 ) at Texas ( -126 ) —- T: 9
    9:40 PM EST : San Diego ( 146 ) at LA Dodgers ( -159 ) —- T: 8.5

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterday’s games will be moved to yesterday’s MLB thread. Any off topic posts, troll posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted. While the use of GIF’s are acceptable, content must be posted along with them.

  • frugal

    Wow…with NBA winding down I thought there would be some activity in here today.

  • homers1226

    without cards its just not the same

  • noddy

    Anyone know any good paid sites for baseball for stats, projections, etc. other than RG?

  • jayzee666

    @noddy said...

    Anyone know any good paid sites for baseball for stats, projections, etc. other than RG?

    REAPER.COM – Players to fade!

    Today’s featured game – PHIL/BALT. Take all the pitchers from that game! It will be a low scoring game with the batters I select going < 10 DK Points!!

  • frugal

    @noddy said...

    Anyone know any good paid sites for baseball for stats, projections, etc. other than RG?

    rotowire has free and premium data.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #52

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    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @noddy said...

    Anyone know any good paid sites for baseball for stats, projections, etc. other than RG?

    Always thought projections were somewhat overrated for MLB, because of the variance. Much more difficult to predict, but that’s me.

    Fangraphs has more stats than you should ever need.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #52

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    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    Haven’t done these in a while with NBA back, but since lock is 4 EST there, figured I’d do some again. Not sure I’ll get through every game as I do have other stuff to do today.

    ATL @ NYY

    Neutral park, slightly favoring LH power
    Neutral weather
    Supposed to be a pitcher umpire

    Tanaka is decent, prone to the occasional blow up and HR’s. Only up to 59 pitches in his last start. Solid pen backing him up. Not really interested in either side. Freeman, Acuna, and Ozuna check out OK, as a mini-stack or one-offs, but highly unlikely I’ll bother.

    Ynoa looks like an OK prospect ( 40 FV on Fangraphs ), who hasn’t done well in his small stint in the bigs. His AAA numbers from last year are not good. In 72 innings he had 32(!) walks and 14(!) HR’s allowed. Specifically 10 HR’s in 32 innings worth of LHB’s. Apparently he has a plus fastball and decent slider, but a tendency to miss with it.

    So, no surprise that the Yankees power is in play. Judge, Hicks, Voit can all smash sliders. Braves pen is decent, but no reason to be hesitant to get some Yankees in your line ups.

    BAL @ PHI

    Power park
    Slight hitters weather
    Neutral ump

    Wade LeBlanc isn’t good.Phillies have the highest total on the main slate. LeBlanc relies on a Cutter, Sinker, a Change up to RHB’s, and a Curve to LHB’s. Hoskins, Harper, Segura, and Realmuto all can smash cutters, while McCuthen can handle sinkers, while Segura not as well. O’s bullpen actually has decent numbers this year, but I’m guessing that’s sample size more than anything. The full stack is in play, and wouldn’t hesitate to play Harper, who hits LHP better anyway, and has hit a HR off LeBlanc in the past, with an average of 112 MPH registered exit velocity on contact against him.

    Eflin is pretty average, but considering it’s the O’s and his price, he’s probably the best value on the slate and will most likely be mega chalk. He does struggle with LH power though and you could go to Santander, Ruiz, or Smith for some leverage. Phillies bullpen has been awful so far as well.

  • frugal

    @Pandamonious said...

    Always thought projections were somewhat overrated for MLB, because of the variance. Much more difficult to predict, but that’s me.

    Fangraphs has more stats than you should ever need.

    I would agree entirely. But then again, I guess points total is a projection as well and I rely heavily on that. More or less, look for the cheapest pitchers games with the lowest O/U with the batters in the highest O/U games.

  • noddy

    @jayzee666 said...

    REAPER.COM – Players to fade!

    Today’s featured game – PHIL/BALT. Take all the pitchers from that game! It will be a low scoring game with the batters I select going < 10 DK Points!!

    LMAO

    and thanks everyone for the responses.

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #52

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    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    SFG @ HOU

    Pitcher park
    Dome
    Seems to be a debuting ump

    Cahill used to be a decent pitcher. He got hit hard last year, then couldn’t make the Giants roster out of camp. He struggled heavily against both sides of the plate last year. Behind Cahill is a bullpen with the 3rd highest xFIP in the league. Even without Springer or Altuve, Astros are still one of the better stacks today, and if anything much more affordable now, with Bregman the only one really priced up.

    Greinke is basically just an above average pitcher at this point and nothing more. Giants have the lowest total on the board. Problem is, Greinke is the most expensive pitcher, but he doesn’t have a lot of K upside himself, and the Giants don’t provide much either. I would consider Greinke “safe,” but hope to find more upside in the price elsewhere. Giants would be a decent contrarian stack, if Greinke is off and the Astros pen has the 4th worst xFIP, and middle of the road ERA. I’ll doubt I’ll go there though.

  • EricQ23

    going with Maeda and a texas stack

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #52

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    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    WAS @ NYM

    Pitcher park
    Slight hitter weather
    Pitcher leaning ump

    Walter Lockett is supposed to start for the Mets. He’s made some very poor major league appearances. His minor league numbers are fine, but nothing special. He doesn’t strike anyone out. The Mets bullpen is about league average. A Nats stack is definitely in play. My only concern is he has a decent ground ball rate (55%) with his fastball, and Turner, Eaton, Castro, Soto, and Kendrick have ground ball leans.

    Sanchez had a resurgence a couple years back, but has fallen back to an average at best pitcher. I’m really indifferent here, as I don’t expect Sanchez to fair well here, but have my doubts he gets crushed. The park and ump are in his favor. He showed more reverse splits last year and the Mets will throw plenty of LHB’s at him. I tend to lean more towards Sanchez as a viable pitcher to use, then the Mets are viable as a stack.

  • bearcats594

    snell being limited to 75 pitches. could get 7-8 k’s tonight.

  • ifthethunder

    @Pandamonious said...

    So, no surprise that the Yankees power is in play. Judge, Hicks, Voit can all smash sliders.

    Note: Aaron Judge is out of today’s lineup with lower back tightness.
    ~

  • jayzee666

    @jayzee666 said...

    REAPER.COM – Players to fade!

    Today’s featured game – PHIL/BALT. Take all the pitchers from that game! It will be a low scoring game with the batters I select going < 10 DK Points!!

    I feel even more confident that this game will be the biggest disappointment tonight. After stacking almost all my LUs with this game and running the REAPER model again, and the fact that I am again going to pull the 0 fer afternoon slate even with all the runs being scored, the correlation calculates to be 123.55% chance that this game will bust!

    I am on my 5th or 6th 0 fer LUs streak this year. Don’t ignore this data!!

  • noddy

    @jayzee666 said...

    I feel even more confident that this game will be the biggest disappointment tonight. After stacking almost all my LUs with this game and running the REAPER model again, and the fact that I am again going to pull the 0 fer afternoon slate even with all the runs being scored, the correlation calculates to be 123.55% chance that this game will bust!

    I am on my 5th or 6th 0 fer LUs streak this year. Don’t ignore this data!!

    Thanks for the info.

  • noddy

    They’ll play in Philly right?

  • noddy

    Man I am lost as to which two SP’s to play in cash games on DK

  • ifthethunder

    @noddy said...

    They’ll play in Philly right?

    Roth thinks a possible late start. But it’s a concern. I want to use some Philly bats.

    As for pitching, it’s not a good night for it. Hope we get lucky with our picks, is about it.
    ~

  • jayzee666

    @noddy said...

    They’ll play in Philly right?

    Roth seems to think so. My weather shows it clears up after 7 PM. Probably should have alternate LUs. Me, I will just leave it the way it is. Won’t matter for me who I change to. I just want to limit the players I bust tonight.

  • chickenmanE

    Im new to mlb dfs, do you guys always roster at least one 3 or 4 man stack in your lineups?

  • EricQ23

    sneaky stacks anyone?

  • thedkexperience

    @Pandamonious said...

    Always thought projections were somewhat overrated for MLB, because of the variance. Much more difficult to predict, but that’s me.

    Fangraphs has more stats than you should ever need.

    This.

    2 reasons I agree.

    1 – it’s kind of silly in a game of guess the homerun to not predict they will get either 0 or 14 on DK and 0 or 18.7 on FD. Sure, your guy might draw a walk or hit a double but you’re not playing him for that so why even factor it in? Anything that isn’t 0 or homer is just noise.

    2 – let’s say a player bats hits a homer every 20 ABs on average but you find a spot where you believe he’ll hit a homer 1 of 10 ABs. That’s a huge value increase but your prediction will still result in a zero 90% of the time.

    I dunno, but once you get your pitcher (or pitchers) right you may as well hunt for a homer at every spot.

  • ifthethunder

    Philly isn’t sneaky, but they’re cheap and Roth is thinking the game does play.

    https://twitter.com/KevinRothWx/status/1293670305806909441
    ~

  • thedkexperience

    @jayzee666 said...

    Roth seems to think so. My weather shows it clears up after 7 PM. Probably should have alternate LUs. Me, I will just leave it the way it is. Won’t matter for me who I change to. I just want to limit the players I bust tonight.

    I live 15 minutes from the stadium. It’s partly cloudy but otherwise quite nice.

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