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  • bhdevault

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    7:05 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( -138 ) at Pittsburgh ( 128 ) —- T: 9
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    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • BigPod

    Bvp. Musgrove vs. Schwarber, Baez, and Rizzo 34 combined at bats, 2 hits, 9k’s.

  • Pandamonious

    • 555

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    • Ranked #87

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    • Moderator

    • 2019 Blogger of the Month

    @BigPod said...

    Bvp. Musgrove vs. Schwarber, Baez, and Rizzo 34 combined at bats, 2 hits, 9k’s.

    So, they’re due?

    BVP is weird. Mets had awful BVP against Teheran, but annihilated him last night. It’s so back and forth that you can make an argument for both angles.

    Anyway, probably going to want a cheap SP2 on DK. So he’s definitely on the table. Wags looks OK. I want to like Norris, but he’s been rough lately. Tons of hard contact. I think he’s tired. Last year he was hurt and only threw 55 innings. 2017 he only threw 115 innings. This year he’s at 120. Leake’s viability depends on how much you believe in the powers of Alfonso Marquez.

  • BigPod

    @Pandamonious said...

    So, they’re due?

    BVP is weird. Mets had awful BVP against Teheran, but annihilated him last night. It’s so back and forth that you can make an argument for both angles.

    Anyway, probably going to want a cheap SP2 on DK. So he’s definitely on the table. Wags looks OK. I want to like Norris, but he’s been rough lately. Tons of hard contact. I think he’s tired. Last year he was hurt and only threw 55 innings. 2017 he only threw 115 innings. This year he’s at 120. Leake’s viability depends on how much you believe in the powers of Alfonso Marquez.

    I think I’m leaning Sandoval for my Sp2 tonight in my cash builds and a good ump draw with Miller. And yes sir, I think this might a spot where they get to Musgrove tonight.

  • depalma13

    Hate nights like this. Too many great pitchers, too many bats in great situations and Coors.

    Probably just go with Verlander and Morton and whatever fits.

  • TnCowboy

    Yeah, broke my own rule of putting stock in BvP yesterday with Teheran having awesome numbers in about 250 AB’s and that ruined 30% of my lineups. Panda got me thinking so I lowered him from 70%. Still a losing night as I had but 1 Indian.

  • Njsum1

    @Pandamonious said...

    BVP is weird. Mets had awful BVP against Teheran, but annihilated him last night. It’s so back and forth that you can make an argument for both angles

    I agree about BVP, I’ve seen players who are 1 for 15 off a guy with 6k’s homer and guys who are 6-12 with 2 homers k twice. However….it is useful. Look….when you’re drawing ping pong balls for your one off plays, it’s at least good to know that a guy has had success of a player in the past. Obviously other factors like price, ballpark, bullpen come into play as well.

    I also think Pete Alonso hit Teheran well before last night. Like tonight Khris Davis has BVP on Verlander….however…he hasn’t hit him well this season, he hasn’t hit well this season, and Davis used to be more reverse splits then he’s been this season (as is Verlander) so I’m not confident in the BVP at all. However….if I’m looking to fit Morton and some big bats, I’ll gamble on Davis for 2900 in like one lineup, as HR upside is there. I won’t expect much though.

    Mets are also very hot right now and NEEDED that win, which could have played a part in them destroying Teheran. As with anything, there is always plenty of outliers. If you can find a potential predictor that works with even 30% accuracy in MLB you’re doing well.

  • Southie777

    Where do you guys get your umpire info? I’ve never paid much attention to it, but I figure it can’t hurt to at least factor it, even if just for tiebreaker purposes!

  • telestraightshooter

    @Southie777 said...

    umpire info

    https://swishanalytics.com/mlb/mlb-umpire-factors

  • telestraightshooter

    Under priced: Mia/ SFG/ TBR

  • Southie777

    Awesome, thanks!

  • Jagwarr

    • 2016 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @depalma13 said...

    Hate nights like this. Too many great pitchers, too many bats in great situations and Coors.

    Probably just go with Verlander and Morton and whatever fits.

    Indeed, In my first filler lu I have has B. Anderson and G. Cooper in but also has Gray as my pitcher on FD so many refines need to be made.

  • lovpink

    Any case for mike montgomery to get 15-20 he stuck out 12 in det and 7 in boston or houser keeps the ball on the ground and has good k stuff so many batts in good spots like most days

  • Jagwarr

    • 2016 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    Like the Mets, the projected top four but unless the weather is 99% clear by 5pm I’m off them.The top of the SD lu is projected to be cheap.

  • ASitar

    Thinking stacking the RedSox will be overlooked with sooo many games on the slate? 7.3 run total. Brooks has allowed 7 HRs in 22 inings. I think they’re the team tonight that puts up 15 runs.

  • Jagwarr

    • 2016 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    @ASitar said...

    Thinking stacking the RedSox will be overlooked with sooo many games on the slate? 7.3 run total. Brooks has allowed 7 HRs in 22 inings. I think they’re the team tonight that puts up 15 runs.

    Me too, but Baltimore is the team that’s going to be overlooked here. I’‘ll be stacking those birds in one of my cheapy lu’s for sure against Porcello.

  • lovpink

    @ASitar said...

    Thinking stacking the RedSox will be overlooked with sooo many games on the slate? 7.3 run total. Brooks has allowed 7 HRs in 22 inings. I think they’re the team tonight that puts up 15 runs.

    There in a great spot won’t be overlooked no team with a 7.5 total ever is

  • ASitar

    @lovpink said...

    There in a great spot won’t be overlooked no team with a 7.5 total ever is

    But stacking 4? With a Murphy, VanMeter, Diaz ..something like that since they’re each $5k. 1 or 2 will be popular, but like the Indians last night I’m loading up on 4 of em

  • zeeshan2

    Anyone fading COL or Bos?

  • Jagwarr

    • 2016 FanDuel NFL Playboy Mansion Finalist

    I don’t think you should worry much about the Col/Mia game because Col has Gray pitching and the Miami pitcher is ok so it’s a wash.

    Boston will score but it’s likely Balt will also. Boston pitching besides Sale is really bad.

    Other notes to be considered is that the sfg/arz and the hou/oak games have extreme over umps but what does that matter. As a life long Yankee fan I will not be using any yanks tonight or Indians.

    Favorite team tonight and for the first time this year , to me is the Cubs.

  • zeeshan2

    I have a good feeling about Rizzo and Rosario tonight and generally the Mets and Cubs

    As far as pitching, I like Jon Gray as my SP2

  • Sleazygreazy

    • 668

      RG Overall Ranking

    I can’t remember a time this year where I felt more confident about a pitcher than I am tonight with Morton. He’s priced up, but 10+ Ks seems to be a lock.
    Analytics/umpire guys have anything to refute that?

  • TnCowboy

    @ASitar said...

    But stacking 4? With a Murphy, VanMeter, Diaz ..something like that since they’re each $5k. 1 or 2 will be popular, but like the Indians last night I’m loading up on 4 of em

    I dunno. Just ran a 5 man Boston stack. Not awesome, but not awful. Betts, X, Devers, Vasquez and Jackie and still got Morton and Musgrove at SP.

  • Boneys2000

    Yankees revenge game after getting clobbered last night???

  • ASitar

    @TnCowboy said...

    I dunno. Just ran a 5 man Boston stack. Not awesome, but not awful. Betts, X, Devers, Vasquez and Jackie and still got Morton and Musgrove at SP.

    I’m leaning Minor/Leake w X, Devers, Mookie and JD. leaves $3,200 for C, 1b, 2b, OF.

  • lovpink

    ARI Rojas is rotogrinders top projected ARI player he’s batting 6th and 3k they projected him high yesterday and he goosed 0 any reason for this

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