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  • bhdevault

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  • mr_papageorgio

    Last night was fun. I had Cole/Dunning for pitchers, Tucker and Avi Garcia in the OF and couldn’t even cash because my $16k worth of COL bats combined for zero points.

  • thedkexperience

    @mr_papageorgio said...

    Last night was fun. I had Cole/Dunning for pitchers, Tucker and Avi Garcia in the OF and couldn’t even cash because my $16k worth of COL bats combined for zero points.

    Pay for pitching. Take the guys who get Cy Young votes. Honestly, I don’t even think people should be stacking in most cases and certainly not stacking Colorado when your whole team will be 35% owned players. You can find a low priced homer at every position these days.

  • mr_papageorgio

    @thedkexperience said...

    Pay for pitching. Take the guys who get Cy Young votes. Honestly, I don’t even think people should be stacking in most cases and certainly not stacking Colorado when your whole team will be 35% owned players. You can find a low priced homer at every position these days.

    Yeah with all the home runs it does seem like stacking isn’t as important as it used to be. I still think 2-4 man stacks can be good especially if they are all power guys but starting last night I changed my process and didn’t force a stack in. Just missed the cash line but still scored much better than I had been.

  • thedkexperience

    @mr_papageorgio said...

    Yeah with all the home runs it does seem like stacking isn’t as important as it used to be. I still think 2-4 man stacks can be good especially if they are all power guys but starting last night I changed my process and didn’t force a stack in. Just missed the cash line but still scored much better than I had been.

    Yeah, I get it. I actually made the adjustment in week 2 of this season. I’m still doing stacks if they develop naturally, and if I’m torn I’ll likely default to including a member of a stack as a tie breaker, but I’m definitely no longer forcing them. I also don’t really consider 2 people a stack, as for me it’s 3+ guys.

    One thing I will say though is that there have been a lot of inexpensive rookies that have been called on the last few weeks who can rake and it seems like there are more platoons then ever. Platoons are a great way to get a plus match up at a reduced price.

    Another odd development this season is with the Red Sox being terrible and many Yankees being injured it’s become a wasteland for casual players. I don’t think I’ve played more than 1 Rockie at home all year but I’d be surprised if the ownership on their players isn’t even higher than usual.

    I’m sure there will be a day soon where one of the chalk teams goes nuts rendering me to last place but right now the DFS eco system is quite friendly to anyone who has a long knowledge of marginal players.

    I cannot stress how much owning MLB The Show during the pandemic has helped me with identifying what marginal players have talent and which ones don’t. It’s an odd thing to promote but I couldn’t imagine attempting to win at this game without owning a gaming system. Same goes for football and MMA.

  • RatedDAL

    @thedkexperience said...

    Yeah, I get it. I actually made the adjustment in week 2 of this season. I’m still doing stacks if they develop naturally, and if I’m torn I’ll likely default to including a member of a stack as a tie breaker, but I’m definitely no longer forcing them. I also don’t really consider 2 people a stack, as for me it’s 3+ guys.

    One thing I will say though is that there have been a lot of inexpensive rookies that have been called on the last few weeks who can rake and it seems like there are more platoons then ever. Platoons are a great way to get a plus match up at a reduced price.

    Another odd development this season is with the Red Sox being terrible and many Yankees being injured it’s become a wasteland for casual players. I don’t think I’ve played more than 1 Rockie at home all year but I’d be surprised if the ownership on their players isn’t even higher than usual.

    I’m sure there will be a day soon where one of the chalk teams goes nuts rendering me to last place but right now the DFS eco system is quite friendly to anyone who has a long knowledge of marginal players.

    I cannot stress how much owning MLB The Show during the pandemic has helped me with identifying what marginal players have talent and which ones don’t. It’s an odd thing to promote but I couldn’t imagine attempting to win at this game without owning a gaming system. Same goes for football and MMA.

    I’m with you on owning The Show although Clevelands Offense bludgeoned me to death and it hasn’t exactly translated well to real games.

  • thedkexperience

    @RatedDAL said...

    I’m with you on owning The Show although Clevelands Offense bludgeoned me to death and it hasn’t exactly translated well to real games.

    I haven’t looked this up so I could be wrong but I remember losing a lot of money last year in April and May playing Cleveland players and when I finally stopped they collectively went on a tear.

    It wouldn’t shock me to see Jose Ramirez and Lindor rip off 16 homers in their next dozen games or so. They seem like slow starters. Once again, I could be completely wrong.

  • Volkster6

    I’ve noticed on Coors slates that the Rockies are way lower owned then their counterparts when there is elite pitching on the same slate. This is likely due to the Rockies always being priced up and recency bias reducing their ownership.

    When you can get the Rockies at home, ownership down, they’re always in play Papa! Don’t feel bad!

  • mr_papageorgio

    @Volkster6 said...

    When you can get the Rockies at home, ownership down, they’re always in play Papa! Don’t feel bad!

    I was laughing hysterically when I saw I had Arenado at 10% at home against a lefty. Little did I know the joke was on me!

  • thedkexperience

    @mr_papageorgio said...

    I was laughing hysterically when I saw I had Arenado at 10% at home against a lefty. Little did I know the joke was on me!

    This is quite shocking to me. My bad. I made the assumption that he and the rest of the Rockies would be 30%.

    Is there even chalk anymore if the Red Sox are struggling and the Yankees are all hurt?

  • fluffynuggets

    Re: Colorado
    Have absolutely no numbers to back this up; but personally follow a Colorado rule: Any teams first game at the high altitude stadium = fade – including Rockies if coming off a road trip.
    It seems it takes a game, or sometimes two, for a team to adjust to the thinner air. Yes, thinner air helps the baseball’s flight; but is does, also, affect the performance of athletes.
    Just food for thought.

  • Pandamonious

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    @fluffynuggets said...

    Re: Colorado
    Have absolutely no numbers to back this up; but personally follow a Colorado rule: Any teams first game at the high altitude stadium = fade – including Rockies if coming off a road trip.
    It seems it takes a game, or sometimes two, for a team to adjust to the thinner air. Yes, thinner air helps the baseball’s flight; but is does, also, affect the performance of athletes.
    Just food for thought.

    It’s a thing. It’s true. Usually the 1st game at Coors disappoints. More so for the visiting team. Then there’s games like last night though, where if you had no Astros you were in trouble. Also teams struggle after they leave Coors much more often then not.

  • thedkexperience

    @Pandamonious said...

    It’s a thing. It’s true. Usually the 1st game at Coors disappoints. More so for the visiting team. Then there’s games like last night though, where if you had no Astros you were in trouble. Also teams struggle after they leave Coors much more often then not.

    No Astros here yesterday and cruised past the cash line with room to spare. Then again my highest owned batter was 11% so maybe I’m just weird.

    No, I’m definitely weird.

    This is actually probably the weakest part of my DFS game. I’m horrifyingly bad at projecting ownership percentages because what seems obvious to me ends up obviously not being all that obvious … or something.

    For perspective my LU was …

    deGrom 17%
    Cole 41%
    Collins 11%
    Smith 7%
    Guillorme 9%
    Urias 2%
    Tatis 2%
    Braun 2%
    Choo 1%
    Nimmo 5%

    Where was the ownership clustered at last night?

  • RudyPujols

    @Pandamonious said...

    Also teams struggle after they leave Coors much more often then not.

    This. I always fade the Rockies bats and visiting bats on the first game out of Coors if the opposing pitcher has any kind of decent Curve/Slider/breaking pitch. Similarly, it’s worth a slight bump to an SP facing these bats if they have good breaking stuff. I think the adjustment to pitch movement going from Coors to non-Coors is a bigger thing than the altitude adjustment coming into Coors.

  • Pandamonious

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    @thedkexperience said...

    No Astros here yesterday and cruised past the cash line with room to spare. Then again my highest owned batter was 11% so maybe I’m just weird.

    No, I’m definitely weird.

    This is actually probably the weakest part of my DFS game. I’m horrifyingly bad at projecting ownership percentages because what seems obvious to me ends up obviously not being all that obvious … or something.

    For perspective my LU was …

    deGrom 17%
    Cole 41%
    Collins 11%
    Smith 7%
    Guillorme 9%
    Urias 2%
    Tatis 2%
    Braun 2%
    Choo 1%
    Nimmo 5%

    Where was the ownership clustered at last night?

    No idea. I don’t even know all what happened last night. LIke, 2/3’s of my line ups were done when ATL/WAS was cancelled and I barely paid attention. I just know Astros piled on runs, and the line ups I was able to cash with were Astros stacks. Hardly even looked at anything. I think the ownership on bats was pretty spread out.

  • Volkster6

    @Pandamonious said...

    No idea. I don’t even know all what happened last night. LIke, 2/3’s of my line ups were done when ATL/WAS was cancelled and I barely paid attention. I just know Astros piled on runs, and the line ups I was able to cash with were Astros stacks. Hardly even looked at anything. I think the ownership on bats was pretty spread out.

    It was very spread out because there was elite pitching and high priced SP2… similar to tonight. The builds were fade Coors, or playing Dunning and SPx and Astros.

  • thedkexperience

    Per Bleacher Report the Mets have 2 positive covid tests.

    As for this slate … that’s some fine top end pitching! I’m rolling Bieber and Kershaw but I can definitely see reasons for Lamet or Gray.

  • yisman

    that Mets PPD is a problem for me because I needed Ramos’ cheap salary on FD

    for the all day, most of my spots are locked and I have 2300 for utility…

  • RatedDAL

    Bieber is sooooo expensive. 12k on FD. I’m just hoping he doesn’t have a ceiling 70 pt performance and not gonna go there.

  • thedkexperience

    @RatedDAL said...

    Bieber is sooooo expensive. 12k on FD. I’m just hoping he doesn’t have a ceiling 70 pt performance and not gonna go there.

    There is almost no such thing as a too expensive front line pitcher.

    Edit – still, there are at least 4 upper echelon starters today so no, I’m not saying Bieber is a must play. But he’s a really, really good one.

  • RatedDAL

    @thedkexperience said...

    There is almost no such thing as a too expensive front line pitcher.

    Edit – still, there are at least 4 upper echelon starters today so no, I’m not saying Bieber is a must play. But he’s a really, really good one.

    I’m not going down too far but I like salary relief you get going down to the next starters. Especially Lamet.

  • thedkexperience

    @RatedDAL said...

    I’m not going down too far but I like salary relief you get going down to the next starters. Especially Lamet.

    Yeah, I like Lamet plenty, for sure. Need some lineups to come out to see if I can even afford Biebs and Kershaw.

  • Unico10

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    You stack Coors 40/20 or 60/10 in favor of the visiting team, every slate… mix the pitchers mix the secondary stack. Is not just the altitude, it’s death, taxes and the Rockies bullpen

    You burn money sometimes like with any team/stack you win big sometimes. Don’t overthink it.

    I am proof of it. Dodgers last year, D’Backs this year… Astros yesterday didn’t quite get me over the top, but cashed more than I put in

  • thedkexperience

    I’m going to keep going back to the Tatis well until he’s like 6000. I’m probably never going to be able to afford a true OF1 on a full slate the rest of the season at this rate.

  • Pandamonious

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    @Unico10 said...

    You stack Coors 40/20 or 60/10 in favor of the visiting team, every slate… mix the pitchers mix the secondary stack. Is not just the altitude, it’s death, taxes and the Rockies bullpen

    You burn money sometimes like with any team/stack you win big sometimes. Don’t overthink it.

    I am proof of it. Dodgers last year, D’Backs this year… Astros yesterday didn’t quite get me over the top, but cashed more than I put in

    Agree. There is some proof that most the time teams don’t hit as well as expected in the 1st game of a series in Coors, but there’s plenty of times they do. It’s not really wise to fade the 1st game there, just because it’s usually the lowest scoring of the series, because that isn’t always the case.

    My big GPP win a couple years ago was 5 Mets in their first game of the series in Coors. I believe yours a week or two ago was also the first D-Backs game in Coors?

  • Unico10

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    @Pandamonious said...

    Agree. There is some proof that most the time teams don’t hit as well as expected in the 1st game of a series in Coors, but there’s plenty of times they do. It’s not really wise to fade the 1st game there, just because it’s usually the lowest scoring of the series, because that isn’t always the case.

    My big GPP win a couple years ago was 5 Mets in their first game of the series in Coors. I believe yours a week or two ago was also the first D-Backs game in Coors?

    It was and the DBacks were too cheap… and pundits were like “You can’t win a GPP with a DBacks stack because everyone will be on it”…. LOL… 4/4 ARI/WAS with Ahmed 3% owned at SS.

    Lucky, of course, but which win isn’t?

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