MLB FORUM

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    1:05 PM EST : Atlanta ( -102 ) at Washington ( -106 ) —- T: 9.5
    3:45 PM EST : Houston ( -101 ) at SF Giants ( -107 ) —- T: 7
    7:05 PM EST : Atlanta ( 182 ) at Washington ( -199 ) —- T: 7.5
    7:07 PM EST : Boston ( -115 ) at Toronto ( 106 ) —- T: 9.5
    7:10 PM EST : St. Louis ( -153 ) at Miami ( 141 ) —- T: 8
    7:10 PM EST : Minnesota ( 219 ) at Cleveland ( -240 ) —- T: 8.5
    7:10 PM EST : Baltimore ( 150 ) at Tampa Bay ( -163 ) —- T: 8
    7:10 PM EST : Cincinnati ( -101 ) at NY Mets ( -107 ) —- T: 9
    8:05 PM EST : Seattle ( -105 ) at Texas ( -103 ) —- T: 11
    8:10 PM EST : San Diego ( 165 ) at Milwaukee ( -179 ) —- T: 8.5
    8:10 PM EST : NY Yankees ( -185 ) at Chi Sox ( 170 ) —- T: 9.5
    8:15 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( -165 ) at Kansas City ( 152 ) —- T: 9.5
    8:40 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 0 ) at Colorado ( 0 ) —- T: —
    9:40 PM EST : Philadelphia ( 145 ) at Arizona ( -157 ) —- T: 8
    10:05 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( -123 ) at Oakland ( 114 ) —- T: 8
    10:07 PM EST : Detroit ( 163 ) at LA Angels ( -173 ) —- T: 8

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • Trappist1

    @ICYCOLD said...

    I’ve read a few post complaining about DFS Experts missing with their advice.

    Don’t you guys realize that they PLAY TOO!

    They have your subscription money already, now they WIN the rest by playing away from the advice…duh

    Of course they take the subscribers money and play in DFS too. This is a classic definition of conflict of interest. My point is we should use the wisdom of the crowd concept along our own research. The wisdom of the crowd does not have to include DFS experts at all, it is about aggregating quality but dispersed information that will aid us. This is not easy to do and hence why people pay for advice and experts. But I highly recommend mastering aggregating this dispersed quality information by ourselves.

  • ASitar

    I’m going to try a single entry tonight then. Thanks for the advice. I look at a ton of research, look at history (BvP), and use expert articles as affirmation usually. Do you make a unique LU in single entry to stand out or make a “cash-like” LU? I’m sure payouts aren’t as big as Multi entry but cashing out $50+ here and there is better than depositing. And what the hell else am I going to do when the wife and kids go to bed?

  • thebigboy

    No grinddown???

  • captainwacky

    There are many ways to profit at DFS and many ways to be lose at DFS. If your thought process is that there is bad information proliferated, then why are you listening at all? If you can ‘identify the problem’ and not detach from it, then you’re just not smart. It’s more likely you’re just venting and being intellectually dishonest with yourself, as the real answer is that DFS is an extremely competitive field where the edge gets smaller with every cent more at stake.

  • Trappist1

    @ASitar said...

    I’m going to try a single entry tonight then. Thanks for the advice. I look at a ton of research, look at history (BvP), and use expert articles as affirmation usually. Do you make a unique LU in single entry to stand out or make a “cash-like” LU? I’m sure payouts aren’t as big as Multi entry but cashing out $50+ here and there is better than depositing. And what the hell else am I going to do when the wife and kids go to bed?

    Absolutely, try the single entries. The payouts are not massive but for once structured well. A unique single entry works well, but also you can make a cash like LU with a few pivots. The scores to reach the cash line are doable and if you LU scores well there is no need to worry about being overtaken as you will do in multi-entry contests.

  • GoodOleTimes

    @ASitar said...

    I look at a ton of research, look at history (BvP)

    bvp doesnt ever help you

  • Trappist1

    @captainwacky said...

    There are many ways to profit at DFS and many ways to be lose at DFS. If your thought process is that there is bad information proliferated, then why are you listening at all? If you can ‘identify the problem’ and not detach from it, then you’re just not smart. It’s more likely you’re just venting and being intellectually dishonest with yourself, as the real answer is that DFS is an extremely competitive field where the edge gets smaller with every cent more at stake.

    In general this is not an issue related to DFS only and there is lot of experts in other fields who make bad claims and predictions without any consequence. It is not easy to separate the quality information from the chaff. It takes a lot of effort and practice to aggregate quality information. DFS is very competitive and the inherent variance causes huge swings as well. Not everyone has the bankroll to cover the permutations and outpace the variance.

  • superjon

    @GoodOleTimes said...

    bvp doesnt ever help you

    Helps identify the chalk

  • superjon

    The majority of plays that get recommended by the pros here are all of the obvious expensive ones.

  • kwest

    Sounds like people jumped on the Homer Bailey train yesterday

  • superjon

    Can guarantee they’ll say the same thing about Mad Max on the live show at 530 that they do about every top priced pitcher.

    “He’s a lock for cash games”

    “Highest ceiling on the slate”

    “You can make the case for fading in GPPs”

    Then when they go position by position. They’ll just recommend the top 5 or 6 highest priced guys at each position.

  • NarrowJ

    @7klub06 said...

    How do u find out who will be the RP to generally come in for starting pitcher of a team?

    I assume this question is with regard to the single game contests? Otherwise, not sure drafting a relief pitcher ever really works out well on a full slate of games.

    Just look at who’s fresh (relievers typically will not go more than 2 days in a row, and also you can check their pitch counts in those games too to get an idea).

    Take into account game script (only take a setup man or closer if you think his team will win, or you can use a long relief guy who is used in low-leverage situations if you think the game will be a blowout, so on and so forth). Guys get extra points for saves and holds, so I don’t ever really choose a guy from the team I think is going to lose (unless there is a long relief guy who is cheap- if he goes 3-4 innings and receives the elevated scoring that relief pitchers do, I’ve gotten 20-30 points before for a guy that costs like 2,500).

    Those are the main things I am looking at when doing the single game contests and looking for a cheap relief guy who might get me 10+ points for his 2-3k salary.

  • yisman

    had very little time to do a showdown lineup. Wanted all hitters but wound up with 5 ATL/1 WSH

    had to drop Freeman for Rendon to make it work

  • Pandamonious

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @kwest said...

    Sounds like people jumped on the Homer Bailey train yesterday

    I think more likely Coors and SEA/TEX.

  • yisman

    @Pandamonious said...

    I think more likely Coors and SEA/TEX.

    I dodged Homer Bailey (multiple touts were shilling for him) but didn’t dodge Coors.

    ONly scored like 70 points after Tropeano threw only 60 pitches and then said he was hurt.

  • captainwacky

    The ‘experts’ are basically giving you the second level thinking of DFS for every sport. Like, you should be able to write the grind down every day if you think you’re competent at that sport without having to do much research. It took me a while to learn this, but the levels of player you have to compete against to do actually do well aren’t the idiots. The people who are just ‘clicking buttons’ pay a portion of the rake. There are far more quasi-serious people who are reading the grind down (or any facsimile thereof) or even just getting to those decisions and plays based on their own research. The best players are getting one or more steps past that. Thus, complaining about being fed bad information seems silly to me; you’re not being forced to play anyone, and if you repeatedly follow touts and lose, what can you complain about?

    That being said, I read many articles every day. Sometimes there’s good pieces of info in there and/or perspectives and strategies I hadn’t considered. Ultimately, if I lose though, it’s because of either my process being bad, or the results not aligning with what I deem a good process. Stop blaming other people, and I promise you’ll be more successful.

  • mr_papageorgio

    @ASitar said...

    I’m going to try a single entry tonight then. Thanks for the advice. I look at a ton of research, look at history (BvP), and use expert articles as affirmation usually. Do you make a unique LU in single entry to stand out or make a “cash-like” LU? I’m sure payouts aren’t as big as Multi entry but cashing out $50+ here and there is better than depositing. And what the hell else am I going to do when the wife and kids go to bed?

    From what I’ve seen the chalk tends to be chalkier in single entry (Cruz was like 60% in the DK $100 last night) so if you like the chalk you should play it but just find one or two spots to differentiate and you’ll be fine. On that note, one thing I’ve learned this year is that differentiate doesn’t have to mean “play a bad pitcher because he’s cheap or play someone in a bad matchup”. My favorite way to differentiate is to play a stud hitter in an average/slightly below average matchup or maybe just in a bad park. Great example from last night: I knew Rizzo would be chalk and while Junis is bad the Cubs aren’t great on the road. I pivoted to Edwin who had a worse on paper matchup but is always capable of a big game. Got him at 8% vs Rizzo at 30+. Got lucky with a late HR from him but from a process standpoint that’s a good way to be different without being stupid/reckless and playing someone with little or no upside.

  • joe2dwight

    • 981

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #18

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Will TB use Glasnow as a starter an opener today?

  • jtkucheck

    @captainwacky said...

    Ultimately, if I lose though, it’s because of either my process being bad, or the results not aligning with what I deem a good process. Stop blaming other people, and I promise you’ll be more successful.

    I think this tendency to blame others stems from most people not having a process of their own, or their process simply being reading tout info.

    My process is always the same, but I do tweak it here and there if I feel like I’m slipping or am having a bad run of variance.

    The problem with and the beauty of touts is that they can tweet and yell and scream when their picks do well, and be silent or point to variance when they don’t. Why people pay them money is beyond me.

  • Joeyrockland1

    @mr_papageorgio said...

    From what I’ve seen the chalk tends to be chalkier in single entry (Cruz was like 60% in the DK $100 last night) so if you like the chalk you should play it but just find one or two spots to differentiate and you’ll be fine. On that note, one thing I’ve learned this year is that differentiate doesn’t have to mean “play a bad pitcher because he’s cheap or play someone in a bad matchup”. My favorite way to differentiate is to play a stud hitter in an average/slightly below average matchup or maybe just in a bad park. Great example from last night: I knew Rizzo would be chalk and while Junis is bad the Cubs aren’t great on the road. I pivoted to Edwin who had a worse on paper matchup but is always capable of a big game. Got him at 8% vs Rizzo at 30+. Got lucky with a late HR from him but from a process standpoint that’s a good way to be different without being stupid/reckless and playing someone with little or no upside.

    Edwin also had decent BVP ….

  • hcassidy

    @joe2dwight said...

    Will TB use Glasnow as a starter an opener today?

    I think their plan is to stretch him back into a starter. His first game the manager said he would pitch 2-3 innings, he went 3. So possible he could maybe go 4-5 innings today, possibly more. Haven’t seen much info for his use tonight.

  • Trappist1

    @captainwacky said...

    The ‘experts’ are basically giving you the second level thinking of DFS for every sport. Like, you should be able to write the grind down every day if you think you’re competent at that sport without having to do much research. It took me a while to learn this, but the levels of player you have to compete against to do actually do well aren’t the idiots. The people who are just ‘clicking buttons’ pay a portion of the rake. There are far more quasi-serious people who are reading the grind down (or any facsimile thereof) or even just getting to those decisions and plays based on their own research. The best players are getting one or more steps past that. Thus, complaining about being fed bad information seems silly to me; you’re not being forced to play anyone, and if you repeatedly follow touts and lose, what can you complain about?

    That being said, I read many articles every day. Sometimes there’s good pieces of info in there and/or perspectives and strategies I hadn’t considered. Ultimately, if I lose though, it’s because of either my process being bad, or the results not aligning with what I deem a good process. Stop blaming other people, and I promise you’ll be more successful.

    As i said earlier some sports are inherently very random that is no matter how deep we do our research or steps ahead we are compared to the field. Just focus on sports where the homework and information one has at hand gives you an edge. For example new sports such as Tennis where the information is scarce and rewarding for those that dig deeper. No one is blaming people, we discussing our observation. Tennis for now tout free. :) Observation and blaming are not the same thing.

  • ecallarman

    @GoodOleTimes said...

    bvp doesnt ever help you

    wrong….

    many tools to consider and you can’t just rely on one.

  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Mod Note

    Hey guys, let’s get this back on topic. This thread is for discussion on today’s slate. You are more than welcome to create a new thread regarding your thoughts on Touts, etc.

    Thanks.

  • yisman

    @hcassidy said...

    I think their plan is to stretch him back into a starter. His first game the manager said he would pitch 2-3 innings, he went 3. So possible he could maybe go 4-5 innings today, possibly more. Haven’t seen much info for his use tonight.

    let me just say I’d be surprised if he went 5 innings, let alone more.

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