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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    1:10 PM EST : Arizona ( 124 ) at NY Mets ( -135 ) —- T: 8
    1:10 PM EST : NY Yankees ( -259 ) at Detroit ( 235 ) —- T: 10
    1:10 PM EST : Milwaukee ( -132 ) at Miami ( 122 ) —- T: 8
    2:10 PM EST : Kansas City ( 174 ) at Chi Sox ( -190 ) —- T: 8.5
    3:10 PM EST : St. Louis ( -174 ) at Colorado ( 160 ) —- T: 13
    3:40 PM EST : Chi Cubs ( -139 ) at San Diego ( 128 ) —- T: 8
    3:45 PM EST : Pittsburgh ( 0 ) at San Francisco ( 0 ) —- T: —
    4:40 PM EST : NY Yankees ( 0 ) at Detroit ( 0 ) —- T: —
    7:07 PM EST : Boston ( -142 ) at Toronto ( 131 ) —- T: 10.5
    7:15 PM EST : LA Dodgers ( -215 ) at Baltimore ( 197 ) —- T: 10
    7:15 PM EST : Atlanta ( -126 ) at Philadelphia ( 116 ) —- T: 10
    7:40 PM EST : Washington ( -117 ) at Minnesota ( 108 ) —- T: 9.5
    8:05 PM EST : Tampa Bay ( -153 ) at Texas ( 141 ) —- T: 10.5
    8:10 PM EST : Oakland ( 235 ) at Houston ( -258 ) —- T: 9
    10:10 PM EST : Cincinnati ( 0 ) at Seattle ( 0 ) —- T: —

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these daily threads more on topic – MLB strategy talk for today’s games. Post referring to yesterdays games will be moved to yesterdays MLB thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • superjon

    Wanted to take a few minutes and type out my process for knowing which bats to include in my player pool.

    First I’ll look at players whose ISO split is under .140 vs the opposing pitcher’s handedness. Then I’ll pull their actual stats (1 to 2 year sample size), and if their HR and RBI are really low, I will fade them. The only exceptions I have are if their SB numbers are good, and they are cheap.

    Next I want to compare some of their long term numbers (1 to 2 year sample) against their recent numbers (30 day sample) to determine hot/cold batters. The 3 main stats I am looking at here are FB%, HR/FB and HC% What I’m looking for here is to see if their recent FB and HR/FB numbers are higher than their long term numbers. If they are, I will keep them in my player pool, and remove them if they aren’t.

    However, there is an exception to this as well. That exception being if their recent HC is up and their recent BABIP is down. What this tells me is that they are hitting the ball hard when they make contact, but maybe getting a bit unlucky. A good example of that would be Choi. Who before last night had a HR/FB of 15.3% on the season and 14.3% over the last 30 days. His BABIP on the year was .300 and down to .288 over the last 30.

    Of course you also have to look at the pitcher they are facing, and other factors as well, but I think this is a good starting point to know which batters are terrible plays and which ones could be good value.

  • prime21

    Musgrove or Stroman? Hmmmmmm

  • jmchica

    Jhoulys Chacín / Patrick Corbin

  • Orty1370

    Coors field???

  • superjon

    Giolito + Marlins
    Stroman + Yankees

  • 866

    Two Coorsy-DUDS in a row.. maybe instead of 1 run StL puts up 11+ today?

  • monarch

    I’m liking Happ/Smith plus Yanks and White Sox

  • Njsum1

    @866 said...

    Two Coorsy-DUDS in a row.. maybe instead of 1 run StL puts up 11+ today?

    I’m doing 2 lineups in the early, and I really have no interest in the cardinals considering how bad they’ve been, and Melville isn’t a terrible pitcher. And that is exactly why 1 of my lineups will have a cardinals stack. It’s still Coors, and people are fed up with the Cardinals, so it’s only logical to play them today even if they do nothing.

  • Sleazygreazy

    @superjon said...

    Wanted to take a few minutes and type out my process for knowing which bats to include in my player pool.

    First I’ll look at players whose ISO split is under .140 vs the opposing pitcher’s handedness. Then I’ll pull their actual stats (1 to 2 year sample size), and if their HR and RBI are really low, I will fade them. The only exceptions I have are if their SB numbers are good, and they are cheap.

    Next I want to compare some of their long term numbers (1 to 2 year sample) against their recent numbers (30 day sample) to determine hot/cold batters. The 3 main stats I am looking at here are FB%, HR/FB and HC% What I’m looking for here is to see if their recent FB and HR/FB numbers are higher than their long term numbers. If they are, I will keep them in my player pool, and remove them if they aren’t.

    However, there is an exception to this as well. That exception being if their recent HC is up and their recent BABIP is down. What this tells me is that they are hitting the ball hard when they make contact, but maybe getting a bit unlucky. A good example of that would be Choi. Who before last night had a HR/FB of 15.3% on the season and 14.3% over the last 30 days. His BABIP on the year was .300 and down to .288 over the last 30.

    Of course you also have to look at the pitcher they are facing, and other factors as well, but I think this is a good starting point to know which batters are terrible plays and which ones could be good value.

    How’s that working out for ya?

  • superjon

    @Sleazygreazy said...

    How’s that working out for ya?

    Decent.

    Still need to work on nailing down the other factors, but this is a good start for me.

  • yisman

    I had a horrible lineup last night (Dillon Peters and Coors stack), yet I was less than 5 points from cashing in my high dollar 50/50! https://www.fantasydraft.com/ticket/10050322

  • Njsum1

    Surprisingly cashed 2 of 3 lineups last night even though I went Pablo Lopez Gray in all 3.

    Sonny threw a nice game, yet it was annoying how he was throwing a no hitter, gives up two walks then a homer taking off 8 points and the win…could have been a monster from him.

  • Njsum1

    @superjon said...

    Decent.

    Still need to work on nailing down the other factors, but this is a good start for me.

    BVP matters as well… it’s not everything and it fails quite often, yet super strong bvp even in small samples or decent bvp with an underpriced player aren’t bad factors to consider.

    You used your process and landed on Choi.

    I simply looked at Bvp for Soler and put him in a lineup.

    There’s lots of ways to get there is my point. Yet I honestly think it’s a lot of luck with hitting as well. Even when your process gets u there. Doesn’t always mean it was the process that worked. Could just be that you got there. Jmho

    Edit..another way to land on Choi would been simply…he’s hitting 4/5th on the road in hitters park against a bad pitcher, and he’s got some pop. with MLB when it comes to hitting when things work out for me, I’m never really sure why…haha

  • monarch

    I should have stuck with Gray/Hader. That combo was actually solid instead I picked two SP that were rocked.

    Thoughts on Stroman today?

  • telestraightshooter

    Ahh a getAway day!

    • fast paced games
    • MLB ump’s personal imaginary strike zones will have shrinkage like retail merchandise after a social media flash mob

    - Coors suds won’t overflow the over

    - park in SFO is a good daytime park for hitters…. but the UMP will negate that.

  • superjon

    @Njsum1 said...

    BVP matters as well… it’s not everything and it fails quite often, yet super strong bvp even in small samples or decent bvp with an underpriced player aren’t bad factors to consider.

    You used your process and landed on Choi.

    I simply looked at Bvp for Soler and put him in a lineup.

    There’s lots of ways to get there is my point. Yet I honestly think it’s a lot of luck with hitting as well. Even when your process gets u there. Doesn’t always mean it was the process that worked. Could just be that you got there. Jmho

    Edit..another way to land on Choi would been simply…he’s hitting 4/5th on the road in hitters park against a bad pitcher, and he’s got some pop. with MLB when it comes to hitting when things work out for me, I’m never really sure why…haha

    BVP is good, but it’s one of the last things I look at. Far too often you get a guy with great BVP that isn’t hitting the ball well and then he busts.

  • telestraightshooter

    @superjon said...

    BVP is good, but it’s one of the last things I look at. Far too often you get a guy with great BVP that isn’t hitting the ball well and then he busts.

    Today’s BvP special is 1B Abreu

    He’s High on BvP & Last week’s DFS pts per PA

  • jayzee666

    I have 1 out 5 Met HRs. That is actually a high percentage by my standards.
    I have a bunch of Melville.
    Some Marlins.
    Man the REAPER just don’t quit!!

  • telestraightshooter

    showDown getAway 50/50’s appear to have the highest rate of return when:

    • use a SP in 1.5x spot
    • roster other SP
    • sometimes even roster PRL

    On average, pitching points will exceed batting points

  • leib0039

    Anyone have intel on the Dodgers pitching situation tonight? Looks like Hill will be around 30 pitches/2 innings. Wondering if they have a guy in line to go 3-4 after that or just a bunch of 1 inning guys. Facing BAL is always a nice spot.

  • mattspot10

    Why the hell did the Pirates take Musgrove out after 5? He was cruising and only at 72 pitches. Ridiculous.

  • Njsum1

    @telestraightshooter said...

    Today’s BvP special is 1B Abreu

    He’s High on BvP & Last week’s DFS pts per PA

    Bvp for Abreu wasn’t particularly good. Yeah he’s homered off him twice in 8 plate appearances, yet he’s also struck out 3 times.

  • superjon

    1 Mahle and 1 Verlander

    All the Phillies

  • jayzee666

    @superjon said...

    1 Mahle and 1 Verlander

    All the Phillies

    You may be a winner! I have some tehren.

  • jayzee666

    No exposure to Coors today except pitchers, look what happens! Whoever stacked Coors, reaper says you are welcome! I have some Jay’s and Astros tonight, make your adjustments now!

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