• bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

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    3:10 PM EST : Cleveland ( 110 ) at Minnesota ( -120 ) —- T: 6.5
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  • TheShaman43

    MLB thread is quiet, so…

    Getting toward the end of what’s looking like my best MLB season ever, a few lessons I’ve learned this year as a small dollar, single lineup per slate player…

    • Simplicity is better. I could spend all day looking at XFIP, BABIP, K%, ISO, HARD%, and on and on…the only thing that happens is I get hit with analysis paralysis. Look at the schedule, look at the SPs, look at the Vegas totals and decide who my gut tells me is going to score the most runs tonight – stack those teams. Maybe it’s a fluke, maybe all the fancy stats are implicitly guiding my instincts…but simplicity and gut have been the key for me this year.
    • Don’t be afraid of chalk. At the plate especially. Play who I think is going to score, don’t worry about what other lineups are, or might be, doing.
    • Baltimore at home is a cheat code. Over 6.5 RA/game. This is a bad team with bad pitching and they’re over a run worse at home than they are on the road. Stack against Baltimore when at Camden Yards.
    • Stop chasing the big payday. This is fun for me, not a living. As someone only playing $1-5 per slate, why shouldn’t I be happy with a +$20 night? Small contests like the Tablesetters ($2 entries, 29 player field, $15 top prize) and 10X boosters (the $2 Booster, top 3 out of 35 earn $20 has been a big hit for me this year) are my friends. No more giant GPPs, no more MMEs, small single entry contests make me happy. I won’t get rich and retire, but I’m currently at +$324 on the baseball season, enough to take my wife out to a nice anniversary dinner this weekend – I’m happy with that.
    • Bats over pitching. I made this switch in thinking a little past midseason and saw a marked improvement in my results. Used to be I’d pick my pitchers first and build my stacks around that, thinking that I HAD to hit the pitching. I still think I need to hit my pitchers, but building my stacks first and then picking from the pitchers that fit has improved my results, there’s often a mid-range pitcher or two that will pay off in each slate and if I bust I’d rather do it at 7K than 10K
    • 5-3 and 4-4 stacks are still working for me. It may or may not be optimal lineup construction on any given slate, but it’s working for me this year. Circling back to my first point, simplicity, I’m fitting lineups into the 5-3/4-4 template rather than tinkering into a multitude of construction models.

    With the first three points in mind, it’s a NYY/TOR night for me, once lineups are posted I’ll see what I can fit in pitching-wise, but I’ll bet I can make this work with someone I feel confident in (like Eovaldi) plus an upside play (like Luzardo).

  • zovyn

    Nice post, Shaman. As a reasonably low-stakes ($15-$25/slate) single-entry player (FD only) I echo your sentiments on a lot of that. Took me a few years to get to that point but my results have been a lot more fun and consistent since I adopted a similar approach. I don’t win big (very rarely) but I do manage to play daily and have enough success to keep playing without much stress.

    I had an NHL contest last year that had me winning $25k (on $21 entries) all the way up until near the end of the 3rd period of the late game (yaay for empty-net-goals) so I’ll always be hoping, ya know? :P

    I know we have some hard-core and top-notch players on the RG boards and I enjoy watching their wins, at least.

    Seems like MLB is all but dead for the year but I’ll keep playing until the NHL season starts.

  • jv21

    • Ranked #92

      RG Tiered Ranking

    Playing tonight cause of the free Fanduel contest. Don’t fail me tonight Yankees.

  • ifthethunder

    It is a good post. I’m not making just one, but I am keeping my total entries low $. Also, the Astros may go off again (it was not having them and the 49ers, err Giants that cost me last night).

    P.S. Siri, who was min-priced on DK last night and hit 2 homers for Houston?

    Jose Siri: Funny you should ask.

  • Lathum

    Gerrit cole is way off tonight

  • yisman

    Since football has started, both DraftKings and FanDuel have tremendously shrunk their MLB contest selection.

  • yisman

    @Lathum said...

    Gerrit cole is way off tonight

    that kills my DK lineup

  • ifthethunder

    @yisman said...

    that kills my DK lineup

    I have Fedde, his opponent Luzardo, Sampson and Naughton as bargain basement pitchers. 2 of them are working out. Along with a couple aces. But I didn’t play Judge or Voit (got Giancarlo Stanton tho).

    And it looks like Toronto and Houston changed uniforms with Chicago and Texas for tonight. Let’s see if anyone notices!

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