# MLB FORUM

• yanks237

Looking to get a blog post up on the potential of suceeding at cash games. Long story short I am simulating what a bankroll could look like in 50 and 100 slates played following a strict 10% bankroll play. However, what I need is realistic values for win rates. As a little teaser with 60% win rate and \$150 starting roll playing 10% in 100 slates played the mean end bankroll is \$722 through 10,000 simulations. While the same scenario with 65% win rate is north of \$2,000.

I want to publish some results to give people an idea of the potential of cash games, and to be honest self-motivate myself to be playing cash. However, I want to use realistic cash rates. The cash rates I am concerened with are strictly double ups as that is how the simulation is handling it. I play over at Aces and the simulaton accounts for \$2.75 to win \$5.

Also I would like win rates for sites like FanDuel or DraftKings with 50/50s where you play \$10 to win \$18 as a quick adjustment can be made to simulate the rake as well.

Any information you guys have will be great thanks!

• yeahthisiscuddy

The average win rate for 50/50s is 50%. It’s a little lower for double ups. I wouldn’t model much higher than a 60-65% win rate, although a more successful player than me would have a better idea of what’s a reasonable long term win rate.

• yogaflame

A better simulation would include several values. So I’d start with a value that’s just at or below the breakeven percentage (55.56% for 50/50s with a 9+1 structure) and simulate for a range of values up to a reasonably-realistic upper limit, perhaps 55% to 65% in 1% intervals for 50/50s. You could do this for a range of game types / structures and build a nice table of results.

• yeahthisiscuddy

@yogaflame said...

A better simulation would include several values. So I’d start with a value that’s just at or below the breakeven percentage (55.56% for 50/50s with a 9+1 structure) and simulate for a range of values up to a reasonably-realistic upper limit, perhaps 55% to 65% in 1% intervals for 50/50s. You could do this for a range of game types / structures and build a nice table of results.

Spoiler alert: higher cash rates lead to higher exponential bankroll growth rates.