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  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    So I’m mainly a GPP player (at least in NFL and NBA I was) but have been trying to broaden my horizons (and reduce variance some) and have been putting in some moderate volume in H2H’s and DU’s in MLB. I know it’s not the largest sample size but I am 159.5W-172.5L in $1 H2H matches for a loss of $44.90. Those same exact lineups have brought me a 148W-115L in $2 DU’s for a profit of $66. I’ve also played 8 $1 50-50’s (I like the DU’s better so haven’t played many of these) and have gone 7-1 for a $4.60 profit.

    My question for those of you who are primarily cash game players is this – is this the norm? Are H2H’s routinely this much tougher or am I going through one of these variance swings. For example tonight, I had two lineups in cash. First one scored 32.75 and went 5-3 in HU matches and 3-0 in DU. The second scored 29.5 and went 3-5 in HU matches and 4-0 in DU. Just looking at the results from the first 6 weeks makes me want to stop playing H2H for cash and just go with DU and 50/50’s.

    And before you ask, yes I know about opponent selection and I’ve primarily been picking opponents with as few wins as possible with the occasional “I want to see their lineup” selection to try and learn with my $1 lol. I also track each game and look to target those who I think have been playing less than optimally. Just looking for some guidance from the cash game vets out there – thanks in advance!

  • JHols1nger

    My win rate on Fanduel this MLB season as of a few days ago is 2% higher in 50/50 compared to H2H over roughly a 4k game sample for each.

  • cedric19

    @JHols1nger said...

    My win rate on Fanduel this MLB season as of a few days ago is 2% higher in 50/50 compared to H2H over roughly a 4k game sample for each.

    Have you noticed any drastic ROI difference based on 50/50 size? I have lost significantly in 50 player 50/50s, but am profitable in 40 and 60 player 50/50s. This is over thousands of entries and I can’t make sense out of it.

  • JHols1nger

    @cedric19 said...

    Have you noticed any drastic ROI difference based on 50/50 size? I have lost significantly in 50 player 50/50s, but am profitable in 40 and 60 player 50/50s. This is over thousands of entries and I can’t make sense out of it.

    I haven’t broken my sample down by field size but I would assume the larger the field the better. I really try to stick to 50 players+ and preferably 100.

  • jimmyrad

    @cedric19 said...

    Have you noticed any drastic ROI difference based on 50/50 size? I have lost significantly in 50 player 50/50s, but am profitable in 40 and 60 player 50/50s. This is over thousands of entries and I can’t make sense out of it.

    random variance. I guess there could be something real to it, but I highly doubt it. I wonder how many RGers continue to play games types X, Y, Z because they’re a winner and drop A, B, C because they’re a loser based on insignificant samples? Big mistake imo.

    To OP’s question, game selection is the key. You’re looking at MLB wins, but you might want to check NBA wins as well. There’s a lot of “new” accounts with 10K-15K NBA wins in a few months. Yeah, those guys probably aren’t picking their home town favorites to make the games more interesting.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @jimmyrad said...

    random variance. I guess there could be something real to it, but I highly doubt it. I wonder how many RGers continue to play games types X, Y, Z because they’re a winner and drop A, B, C because they’re a loser based on insignificant samples? Big mistake imo.

    To OP’s question, game selection is the key. You’re looking at MLB wins, but you might want to check NBA wins as well. There’s a lot of “new” accounts with 10K-15K NBA wins in a few months. Yeah, those guys probably aren’t picking their home town favorites to make the games more interesting.

    I definitely look at that as well. Unfortunately there’s not a lot of “newbies” to pick from so you have to pick your poison. Maybe I should just start playing all the high volume players.

  • bucherpsu08

    Check out the 3 and 5 man leagues. There’s a lot of newbs on there with less than 100 wins total across the board. I try to get those games when I have slow days with work and can hawk the lobby a bit. Some days I don’t have the time or patience and just stick to the DU/50 50s.

  • bmlenox

    @bucherpsu08 said...

    Check out the 3 and 5 man leagues. There’s a lot of newbs on there with less than 100 wins total across the board. I try to get those games when I have slow days with work and can hawk the lobby a bit. Some days I don’t have the time or patience and just stick to the DU/50 50s.

    Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Just keep that info to yourself please.

  • hambazaza

    RG Blog Program Manager, 2014 RG Party Beer Pong Champion

    • Blogger of the Month

    • Beer Pong Champion

    i prefer h2hs over 50/50s since on my bad days i can still win something, this keeps me from going 0-fer any given day.

    it also caps the upside as you won’t win 100% of your h2hs most days,

  • sellthenews

    Tougher? well that’s a matter of who you play.

    If you score 35 every night, you will clean up in 50/50s, but just make a little in H2H.

    If you score 25 every night, you will lose your shirt in 50/50s, but make a good chunk of your money back in H2H.

    Having a good night in H2H can certainly be frustrating when you dont make as much as you think you should have (like coming in 4th in a H2H matrix woo!!), but its best to take a dispassionate approach and just think about your edge like you always would: by factoring in Rake, your skill level, and your opponents skill level.

  • MrFantasy

    Hazy- How many wins do you have on FanDuel for MLB? Are your games getting scooped? I have like 200 wins for MLB on my FanDuel profile but have like 8k wins for NBA. If I post 50 H2H games for NBA I get all the terrible players against me one game at a time. Sometimes they even take more than one game of mine. For MLB I get scooped often by recognizable players.

  • CeeGee

    • Ranked #69

      RG Tiered Ranking

    I rarely win “a good chunk” of my H2H games when I score 25.

    But I agree with your overall thought

  • sethayates

    @bucherpsu08 said...

    Check out the 3 and 5 man leagues. There’s a lot of newbs on there with less than 100 wins total across the board. I try to get those games when I have slow days with work and can hawk the lobby a bit. Some days I don’t have the time or patience and just stick to the DU/50 50s.

    ^Do this but I will add one strategy tweak. Join as many 3-5 man leagues as you can throughout the day. Ideally you want o jump in the ones that are 1/3 or 2/3. Around 30 minutes before lock go look at the opponents in each one and cancel out of the games you don’t want. This only works on FD and you can only cancel 15 minutes before lock but it is the best method to make sure you don’t play the same people (kcchiefsfan and lovesbases) in every single 3-man.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    @MrFantasy said...

    Hazy- How many wins do you have on FanDuel for MLB? Are your games getting scooped? I have like 200 wins for MLB on my FanDuel profile but have like 8k wins for NBA. If I post 50 H2H games for NBA I get all the terrible players against me one game at a time. Sometimes they even take more than one game of mine. For MLB I get scooped often by recognizable players.

    540 as of right now. I only join games, don’t create.

  • JHols1nger

    @thehazyone said...

    540 as of right now. I only join games, don’t create.

    Contrary to popular belief it’s been my experience that posting games gets softer opponents overall (I do both for volume).

  • MrFantasy

    @thehazyone said...

    540 as of right now. I only join games, don’t create.

    This could be your answer right here. Typically those that are creating contests are the better players. Maybe try creating your own and see what your next sample size is.

  • MrFantasy

    @JHols1nger said...

    Contrary to popular belief it’s been my experience that posting games gets softer opponents overall (I do both for volume).

    This

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    hmmm, I thought I’d get scooped by the top players. I’ll give that a shot tomorrow (already joined my quota for today).

    Thanks guys.

  • sethayates

    @thehazyone said...

    hmmm, I thought I’d get scooped by the top players. I’ll give that a shot tomorrow (already joined my quota for today).

    Thanks guys.

    Its not top players that scoop people. Every time I post a bunch of H2Hs they get scooped by random. A couple of times the games that got scooped were literally the only games I won that night. Top players aren’t scooping H2Hs. They want variance. They want to play as many different people as possible. If they want a bunch of money against the same person they would play a high dollar H2H with lower rake.

  • JHols1nger

    @thehazyone said...

    hmmm, I thought I’d get scooped by the top players. I’ll give that a shot tomorrow (already joined my quota for today).

    Thanks guys.

    If you’re able to get on multiple times per day you can post a couple games at a time at each buy in you want to play to limit the risk. I typically post 3 at a time per buy in on FD and can’t remember the last time a reg scooped them.

  • biggiesmails72

    @thehazyone said...

    hmmm, I thought I’d get scooped by the top players. I’ll give that a shot tomorrow (already joined my quota for today).

    Thanks guys.

    You probably still will get good players taking games, but post in increments throughout the day. Dont post them all at once and this wont happen

  • cedric19

    @jimmyrad said...

    random variance. I guess there could be something real to it, but I highly doubt it. I wonder how many RGers continue to play games types X, Y, Z because they’re a winner and drop A, B, C because they’re a loser based on insignificant samples?

    I don’t see how It’s random though. I enter all of the low to mid range 50/50s I can each night, it’s not like some nights I only join 20 and 40 player, and some nights I only enter 50 player. The same scores that have given me a profit in non 50 player 50/50s have lost in the 50 player ones overall.

  • Cameron

    RG Co-Founder

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Survivor Champion

    • 2016 RG Season Long Champion: NFL

    Great thread and discussion.

    I think the variance is higher in head-to-heads in general, so I’d wait for a larger sample. I agree with posting more games (use matchup blocker on DK). Monitor who grabs your games on FD.

    One interesting note that I don’t think anyone touched on is buy-in level. I didn’t have a large sample size during NFL season at every price-point, but my NFL ROI on FD was highest at the $50 and $109 H2H levels, and my ROI was lowest at the $1, $2, and $5 levels. On DK, $50 was highest ROI, and $2 was lowest ($1 was really high, but only 49 game sample size). — I’m still at small sample sizes, but my feel was that $109 levels had softer game-grabs during NFL season on FD, than the lower stakes, for whatever reason. — No concrete points here, but I’d test some different H2H buy-in levels as well over time, if you can.

  • JHols1nger

    @Cameron said...

    Great thread and discussion.

    I think the variance is higher in head-to-heads in general, so I’d wait for a larger sample. I agree with posting more games (use matchup blocker on DK). Monitor who grabs your games on FD.

    One interesting note that I don’t think anyone touched on is buy-in level. I didn’t have a large sample size during NFL season at every price-point, but my NFL ROI on FD was highest at the $50 and $109 H2H levels, and my ROI was lowest at the $1, $2, and $5 levels. On DK, $50 was highest ROI, and $2 was lowest ($1 was really high, but only 49 game sample size). — I’m still at small sample sizes, but my feel was that $109 levels had softer game-grabs during NFL season on FD, than the lower stakes, for whatever reason. — No concrete points here, but I’d test some different H2H buy-in levels as well over time, if you can.

    I think NFL is unique in this way because of the insane traffic there is as well as having a week to game select. I could be wrong as I don’t typically play those stakes but my guess is that the skill level gradually increases in the other sports, while the NFL is just flooded pretty much top to bottom.

    I can’t even imagine what the traffic is gonna be like this year during football season.

  • Cameron

    RG Co-Founder

    • 2014 FanDuel NFL Survivor Champion

    • 2016 RG Season Long Champion: NFL

    @JHols1nger said...

    I think NFL is unique in this way because of the insane traffic there is as well as having a week to game select. I could be wrong as I don’t typically play those stakes but my guess is that the skill level gradually increases in the other sports, while the NFL is just flooded pretty much top to bottom.

    I can’t even imagine what the traffic is gonna be like this year during football season.

    This is a good point. — Also NFL carries more variance in general, b/c of the nature of scheduling compared to MLB/NBA. — Good point though.

  • thehazyone

    RG Contributor

    • Blogger of the Month

    I can’t wait for NFL. All that I’ve learned since last NFL season has me chomping at the bit for the sport I think I am best at. I’m definitely going to be doing some NFL cash games. Like JHols1nger said, I think the traffic this season is going to be insane.

    Now that I said that, It’ll end up being my worst sport of the year.

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