MLB FORUM

  • humanash

    I really got into playing MLB Showdowns last season on DraftKings, I liked just picking one game and having a reason to care about watching it. I also like the ease of researching just one game as opposed to 15, it fits my schedule and time commitment much better. Unfortunately, DK changd their Showdown rules and scoring, adding the dumb captain slot.

    I’m not too familiar with the other sites outside of DK and FD, are there any other DFS sites out there (besides DK and FD) that offer up a single game MLB contest format?

  • bigez952

    @humanash said...

    The #1 difference is that last season, for each game/slate there were 32-34 players available in the player pool with a reasonable potential opportunity to score more than 4 points. Under the new format, there will only be 18-20 players in the pool with that type of scoring potential. I hope that statistic illustrates why I expect so many more ties. It also seems like a pretty drastic change to a contest format that I thought was great and popular. Imagine if the NFL structure changed so that a player who was at the WR position was capped at 4 points while every other position’s scoring remained the same?

    Your math is wrong by saying there should be fewer combinations and more ties due tot he relievers upside being cut down. There are exponentially more combos to reduce ties when you factor in the Captain spot scoring 1.5X points even if you do reduce the player pool.

    NFL season has proven that the Captain sport format does a great job in reducing ties vs. the old format which everyone had equal scoring but the player pool was double the size with defensive players being included.

    Relievers are priced down since they have no upside which is no different than a backup TE or 4th string WR. These guys also have no upside but maybe you will luckbox into a 1 yard TD to fit in that high priced captain and multiple other studs. That is still 100% a viable strategy and could win on nights with multiple high priced players going off that no one could fit in. You could still do this in the MLB if you want to take a high priced Ace as your captain with another high priced player like the opposing pitcher. If you can get 2-3 innings and 2-4 K’s out of a reliever your still going to be in great shape to win if the low owned combo of high priced studs you could afford do what they are supposed to.

    No one is going to play relievers early on and I won’t be shocked to see unique winners using that strategy before people catch on.

  • matt_3200

    I sent them an email and they said this was the way it was going to be for the rest of the year.

  • myb821

    I am also really really disappointed by the change i loved DK’s showdown last year

  • Dasusun

    I played showdowns mostly during last year’s playoff and had some success, mostly because of identifying the viable RPs. It was super fun because outside of dominant closers RPs will be very low owned, and if you can get the game narrative right along with the knowledge of bullpen usage, you can take all these RP points for yourself. Once I had the mop-up guy of the Astros coming in and pitching three good innings, giving me 20 points! The change of not separating RP and SP scoring is the biggest one, as in last year’s format RP is especially valuable because they score more points per inning and per K.

    I hate this change, but also wonder what the new strategy will be with the stupid captain spot. Are decent RPs still going to be usable? SP or Power bats as captions? Thoughts?

  • humanash

    @bigez952 said...

    Your math is wrong by saying there should be fewer combinations and more ties due tot he relievers upside being cut down. There are exponentially more combos to reduce ties when you factor in the Captain spot scoring 1.5X points even if you do reduce the player pool.

    Your argument is solid and while I didn’t do out the calculations, theoretically I’m sure the Captain slot at least comes close to outweighing the removal of 30% of the player pool in terms of a purely mathematical number of possible lineup combinations. However, the MLB is not going to be like the NBA and NFL when it comes to the distribution of “best captains”. For MLB, a huge chunk of the time, the starting pitcher for the winning team is going to be the highest scoring player by a margin wide enough to offset any salary concerns. The times when he won’t are also going to be super predictable and obvious. When Max Scherzer is pitching for the Nats, he’s going to be the slate breaking captain more than 75% of the time. On those slates, there will be many ties. Not even the most elite NFL and NBA players are going to dominate a single-game slate 75% of the time. In the MLB, there are 15 or 20 guys who can be in that range on their respective Showdown slate. There is of course also the fact that ties were extremely minimal last year, even in the biggest GPPs.

    The dominance and scoring potential of top starting pitchers is another reason it’s dumb for them to have a bonus for CG, CGSO, and no hitter. It’d be like if the NBA had a bonus for a guy who scored 70 points. On a Classic slate with a huge player pool that is great. On a single-game slate? They might as well make the bonus a million points. The guy is doubling up the next highest scoring player already. Why bother tacking on a bonus?

    I appreciate the discussion, but it sounds like this isn’t really a format you play often anyways. It was my favorite format and for most of last season was the only format I played. I’m really unhappy with the changes and no one is going to convince me that they’re actually good or that I will come around or like them. I’ve been playing DFS in some form or another since 2015 and it’s sad to stare down the first baseball season since then without having the extra fun provided by DFS. I’m still dragging my feet on emptying out my bankroll, but I’m going to spew off my tickets and crowns on the first few Showdown games and then I guess take it all out, the wife will be happy at least with some extra dough in the bank. Will be back for sure if they added either the reliever bonuses or even just the Save/Hold points back to the structure, and they can keep their dumb captain slot if they want.

  • bigez952

    @humanash said...

    However, the MLB is not going to be like the NBA and NFL when it comes to the distribution of “best captains”.

    I take it you didn’t play much showdown this NFL season. If you look at the entire season the range of outcomes in the NFL was extremely small. It almost always was the WR1 or RB1. Obviously there was a smaller % of slates where QB’s or secondary WR’s or RB’s hit the optimal captain spot as well but not nearly the frequency of stud WR’s and RB’s. I 100% agree it will be similar for MLB with Aces hitting that top spot a lot.

    Guys like Max Scherzer are not going to be free if DK sets up pricing right. If you make him Captain at 1.5X your going to have no offense which may be the optimal play but isn’t a slam dunk auto win where 78% of the field will have the same lineup. The perfect game, CG, CGSO bonuses are rare but I would be fine if they went away for the single game slates.

    I know I won’t change your mind so I will probably be done with this thread soon but I will end with that this is a great change with a proven track record of success with the NFL and NBA so I wouldn’t expect it to change anytime soon.

    Also to note the player pool isn’t reduced by 30% as RP’s are still in the pool just not worth as much. However they are all min priced so in the end the changes might be very minimal as last year closers were priced up to the mid range knowing they had the save point potential.

  • lpdev

    It will be interesting to see how things go anyway with pricing and whatnot. I can’t be a fan of the RP scoring changes when that was my avenue to profitability last season in showdown. I think having a captain spot is better than not having a captain spot, but I doubt any edge that can be gained from that change will compare to the edge from appropriately utilizing RP’s last season.

  • bigez952

    @Dasusun said...

    I played showdowns mostly during last year’s playoff and had some success, mostly because of identifying the viable RPs. It was super fun because outside of dominant closers RPs will be very low owned, and if you can get the game narrative right along with the knowledge of bullpen usage, you can take all these RP points for yourself. Once I had the mop-up guy of the Astros coming in and pitching three good innings, giving me 20 points! The change of not separating RP and SP scoring is the biggest one, as in last year’s format RP is especially valuable because they score more points per inning and per K.

    I hate this change, but also wonder what the new strategy will be with the stupid captain spot. Are decent RPs still going to be usable? SP or Power bats as captions? Thoughts?

    You can still use this strategy and now RP’s will be super low owned. Sure you may only get 8-12 points on an elite day instead of 20 but all RP’s are also min priced on the first slate. So if that stays the same if you can pick out an RP who is going to score 5-10 for min priced that will be huge to allow you to roster an Ace like Scherzer or a great hitter like Trout as your Captain and still be able to pair them with other top options for the game.

    To make a great showdown slate it all comes down to pricing and if it is done right you won’t be able to just play a guy like Scherzer as Captain with the 1-4 batters for the Nationals with ease.

  • bigez952

    @lpdev said...

    It will be interesting to see how things go anyway with pricing and whatnot. I can’t be a fan of the RP scoring changes when that was my avenue to profitability last season in showdown.

    This will be very interesting to see how they handle pricing with some big name guys available. I think if your great at picking RP’s the edge will still be there as no one is going to pick these guys and if they stay min priced that 8-12 points you can get out of them would be a huge edge as many cheap bats will score 0-5.

  • Zwett

    just noticed it on DK – disappointed they changed it.

  • rishipatel412

    On FD, would the strategy be to have players from the same teams as MVP and STAR? Or make sure more players are from the MVP team in the lineup?

  • infinite420

    @humanash said...

    I suppose I can see an argument here for H2H matchups, I mostly play GPPs so I wasn’t taking cash games into consideration. In a GPP, in a showdown or even a short-slate classic format tourney, you’re not really playing against the other players, you’re just trying to create the optimal lineup. Anything that increases the total number of potential combinations is going to lower the odds that your lineup is going to be the optimal one.

    I think you are mistaken as far as GPP/showdowm gpp strategy is concerned. Especially in MLB, all you are doing is playing your opponents; by trying to find the lowest owned players with as high of a ceiling as possible. I do think that is was dumb to take out RP stats. DK enhanced the product by adding Captains, but simultaneously regressed it by taking RP stats away.

  • RudyPujols

    I would echo what has been said. I’m not terribly troubled by the captain slot. But the removal of relieve bonus scoring is garbage. That was my primary strategy for being contrarian in (relatively) large entry GPPs in MLB Showdown. This October i nailed easy money in the play-in, wild card, elimination playoff games this way (you almost knew that the high-k reliever studs were going to pitch yet they still weren’t over-owned). The reliever stab was the most intriguing part of the Showdown format, it’s why i played hundreds last year, and I’ll be greatly decreasing my Showdown volume as a result of this change. Bad move, DK.

  • RudyPujols

    Just now seeing bigez’s post; I suppose those Showdowns with elite starting pitching and/or an abundance of stud hitters could pull the cheap RP back into play even without the bonus scoring. Good point. That said, the risk that they never see the bump doesn’t seem as justified without the bonus scoring.

    Maybe I’m overreacting based on this Japan slate, which by the way I completely pegged the type of game (faded both SPs), had Davis at captain, Chapman, and Piscotty, and still missed the cash line in the big $5 GPP by 3 points. Glad Laureano and Haniger could combine for 2 points on 10 plate appearances in a 16-hit/16-run game. Nice work, fellas.

  • thedkexperience

    @RudyPujols said...

    Just now seeing bigez’s post; I suppose those Showdowns with elite starting pitching and/or an abundance of stud hitters could pull the cheap RP back into play even without the bonus scoring. Good point. That said, the risk that they never see the bump doesn’t seem as justified without the bonus scoring.

    Maybe I’m overreacting based on this Japan slate, which by the way I completely pegged the type of game (faded both SPs), had Davis at captain, Chapman, and Piscotty, and still missed the cash line in the big $5 GPP by 3 points. Glad Laureano and Haniger could combine for 2 points on 10 plate appearances in a 16-hit/16-run game. Nice work, fellas.

    I rarely play single game slates and missed the cash line by a few points this morning but here are my initial reactions.

    As always I just like FD more. Making the single game an all hitter game seems better to me but when there aren’t stud pitchers, doesn’t it actually make more sense to try and put a slugger in the MVP spot on DK? I get that you’re gonna choose Sale or Scherzer if available but when Mike Fiers is the best option, why not just play guess the homerun?

    In other news, I love playing guess the homerun.

  • qatman

    The reason there will be many more ties in MLB than in NFL is because in NFL the points are more widely distributed with 0.1 per yard, whereas in MLB the points are more discrete. So in MLB it is much more likely for two different guys to have the same point total (e.g. 1 for 4 with an RBI) than in NFL when you’d need them both to have the same mod 10 number of yards.

    I dislike this change and I play a fair number of showdowns (but prefer 2-3 game slates) as someone with limited research time.

  • D4RKSH33P

    Does anyone know a good place to collect showdown price, ownership, and points scored data after the fact? You can PM me if it is a competitor to RG.

  • mambaland

    @bigez952 said...

    welcome” an addition to the game format that increases variance and randomness

    that is exactly what we want…who wants to have to research…just pick some players and roll…my 1099 was a result of that game

  • wideopen23

    The one benefit to the single game contests is that you don’t have to obssess over weather reports and teams random decisions on weather to postpone a game or not.

  • mtdurham

    Yikes. Just saw these changes. DK ruined showdown mode.

    Can’t get out of their own way

    This really sucks. Showdown had serious edge and was a lot of fun.

    Now its just going to be a rakefest of chalk .

    Omg mike trout hit a homer i player him at captain!!! Oh you played mike trout too?!

    As many have echoed I enjoyed MLB showdown because it was a thinking man’s game. Now its not much different than just buying a scratchoff ticket at the convenience score. Honestly the scratchoff ticket is more exciting because if you win it won’t be a 420 way split pot

  • Zwett

    I emailed them and DK never asked the players.. they just assumed because captain was popular with other sports..

  • yisman

    I am disappointed in this change.

    I liked the strategy last season of deciding whether to use a reliever when he might not get in the game. Very easy to have unique lineups when using relievers, too.

    If I play showdown this season, I likely won’t be using relievers. I get that they’re min priced now but you needed the bonus scoring to make it worthwhile to take the risk.

  • RudyPujols

    @yisman said...

    I am disappointed in this change.

    I liked the strategy last season of deciding whether to use a reliever when he might not get in the game. Very easy to have unique lineups when using relievers, too.

    If I play showdown this season, I likely won’t be using relievers. I get that they’re min priced now but you needed the bonus scoring to make it worthwhile to take the risk.

    I agree completely that the change sucks. And I came to the same conclusion as you after the Japan slate.

    But looking at the Red Sox/Mariners slate, I could make a case for using a reliever or two if it enables you to have JD, Betts, and Sale with one of them at captain. If it were further into the year, Sale was in good form and stretched out, and the Sox relievers were rested and maybe even needed work or had an off day the next day, I’d definitely take a flyer on Brasier and/or Barnes.

    Also, if y’all haven’t noticed, MLB Achievements are up, and there are two Showdown-specific categories.

  • humanash

    Pricing is delightful on the first round of games for today. Finally glad they figured it out so Edwin Diaz (sporting his shiny new 8.25 point cap) is significantly more expensive than the Mets projected #1 and #3 hitters.

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