NBA FORUM

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  • timc9842

    If you enter let’s say 300 lineups in 2 NBA tournaments for different entry fees. Are there any specific strategies you use? Let’s say you’re playing for the high dollar $7 entry, and the other is a $0.25 entry. Do you let the automatic entry just randomly select it for you? I would love to hear your feedback on this subject.

  • ClubhouseAU

    Interested also

  • mtdurham

    One of the best ways to get an advantage in DFS is to team up with a friend or brother and just enter all 300 of those lineups in the same tournament rather than 2 separate tournaments. As long as you dont send Draftkings an email specifically stating that you are working together, they will continue to look the other way.

  • timc9842

    @mtdurham said...

    One of the best ways to get an advantage in DFS is to team up with a friend or brother and just enter all 300 of those lineups in the same tournament rather than 2 separate tournaments. As long as you dont send Draftkings an email specifically stating that you are working together, they will continue to look the other way.

    I am laughing at your response, but I don’t want to get caught up in any DFS drama. I am sure that several people probably team up in this manner, but don’t see how they can do anything about it. I have been playing MME for a few weeks now, and have seen some success. I am just interested if you can somewhat control where the lineups go according to the entry fees.

  • superstars92

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    Yes there is. Assuming they have the same payout structure, I recommend playing chalkier guys in the lower stakes one and non-chalkier guys in the high stakes one.

  • superstars92

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    For the record, I would suggest you enter the same 150 into both contests, but if you wanted to actually do 300, I recommend what I say above.

  • tmarohl

    You need to use something like LineupHQ or another optimizer so you can spit out the lineups into a CSV. You have to pay close attention just before lock (especially on no late swap sites, and be ready to upload bulk edits. Whatever optimizer you use, you probably don’t want to use those projections 100%. If you do, you will have the same lineup as everyone else who uses that optimizer. I only mass enter the small 25 cent one on FD. I typically narrow the player pool down. I do this primarily by eliminating centers. I try to get it down to 5 or so centers that I think are in good position at different price ranges. I look at players projected points. I adjust them upward or downward depending on what I think is going to happen. It is important to remember that optimizers spit out median projections. If I think a guy is going to crush in a projected matchup I will increase the projection. The opposite is also true. Finally I set an overall exposure level for each player. Usually somewhere between 20 – 35% depending on the size of the slate. Then I will typically adjust a few players exposures higher or lower. If someone is in a really great spot, like Aaron Holiday was last night after Brogdon being announced out just before lock, I might adjust him upward to 60 or 70%. Conversely if there is someone who I think is really chalky that is a volatile player, I might adjust them down to 5 or 10 percent. Since FD has a lock time, and we don’t always have news, I will also typically lower my ownership percentage on a guy who is questionable. Might just go 5% on him so I have some, but I will also have 5 or 10% of the guy that will replace him if he doesn’t play. Last night for instance, KAT was questionable and ended up being ruled out about 9PM. I set my lineup HQ settings so I would have 5% Kat, and 7.5% Dieng.

    It is only $37.50 to max enter a 25 cent contest. I have been doing this for the last 1.5 seasons on FD. On a bad night you may lose 10 or 15 bucks. On a typical night I make 10 to 30 bucks. On a really good night you take one down and have several high places and win 700 – 800 or so.

    Other people try to play cash games to sustain and build their bankroll. I don’t play cash games and use this method in low cost tourney’s to sustain and build mine. While I give myself a chance to take it down, I view it more as a volume play and want to cash as many lineups as possible.

    Conversely, I typically will hand build 10 lineups per day on FD and 5 on DK for the five to 12 dollar GPP’s. When I do those, I am trying for the highest score possible. Typically take more chances. Attitude is that I want to either win it or lose it. Not trying to be overly safe.

  • DFSx42

    I’m not trying to be a jerk but a lot of what you just stated is incorrect.

    1. Optimizers just follow a set of rules to create a lineup. They don’t produce projections. If you give two different optimizers the same projections and same instructions they’ll produce identical lines.

    2. I’m not sure what you mean about “median projections” yes, it’s possible one site or another simulates output repeatedly and then selects the median result as the projection but you make it seem like this is a rule that all projections are created this way when in fact most are not doing that level of simulations.

    3. Matchups are included in the projections if the projections are even slightly decent. There is no standard projection that you can then modify based on the matchup. Maybe you feel the matchup is better than the projection source believes but otherwise you’re just salting an already salted dish that you assumed is unsalted.

  • superstars92

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    @DFSx42 said...

    1. Optimizers just follow a set of rules to create a lineup. They don’t produce projections. If you give two different optimizers the same projections and same instructions they’ll produce identical lines.

    This point is actually not true. I’ve read a lot of posts on here, and it seems like everyone is missing this. If you give two different optimizers the same projections and same instructions, IT IS NOT TRUE they necessary produce the same results. If this were always a true fact, there would be no need for an entire field called mathematical optimization. It could be true for something super simple like the NBA DFS if you have limited instructions, but overall, this is far from true and that’s why there is a lot of research in this field to develop the best possible optimizer. Like for example, if you give two different optimizers the same exposures and then the same projections and ask it to generate 100 lineups, I am not even sure it spits out the same types of lineups actually. You should try just yourself just to see if this is true or not (it’ll be interesting) because it depends on I believe on how you want to maximize that controls for the output. I know my optimizer I made myself doesn’t spit out the same thing as FC.

  • DFSx42

    You’re missing the point, I specifically said if given the same rules. You’re talking about if given different rules and randomizations.

    2+2 is always going to equal 4. You’ll never get another answer than 4 if you queried a million different optimizers to calculate 2+2. They are all using the same logic because stocking the knapsack problem is not a subjective undertaking.

    Honestly man, is there anyone here you don’t try to argue with over non-existent situations?

  • superstars92

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    @DFSx42 said...

    You’re missing the point, I specifically said if given the same rules. You’re talking about if given different rules and randomizations.

    2+2 is always going to equal 4. You’ll never get another answer than 4 if you queried a million different optimizers to calculate 2+2. They are all using the same logic because stocking the knapsack problem is not a subjective undertaking.

    Honestly man, is there anyone here you don’t try to argue with over non-existent situations?

    EDIT:

    As for your last point, I don’t ever argue over non-existent situations. I only argue over relevant situations that could be impactful to DFS. If anything, your original post to tmarhol was “I’m not trying to be a jerk but a lot of what you just stated is incorrect.”, so you also argue over a situation which I think you will cause a user to be dismissive of his post when I think his post is helpful. I was just simply sharing my personal insight on this matter, and it’s nothing personal against you. We live in America, and it’s ok to disagree.

    This was your post “If you give two different optimizers the same projections and same instructions they’ll produce identical lines,” and I’m just simply disagreeing with you based on my personal perspective. If you don’t think I’m right that’s ok, but I personally have found that my optimizer, even with the same projections, same inputs, same exposure percentage, and same rules, got me different results. Maybe I am just a bad player with a crappy optimizer, but I am just giving you what has happened to me.

  • DFSx42

    You could code an optimizer to find the actual optimal lineup. Or you can code it to take shortcuts and just find a good enough solution. IE if you use excel you can choose between solving methods and choose a good enough option that’s slightly faster.

    Just because you personally created one that uses shortcuts and gives an approximate result instead of doing true optimization doesn’t make that standard.

  • superstars92

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    @DFSx42 said...

    You could code an optimizer to find the actual optimal lineup. Or you can code it to take shortcuts and just find a good enough solution. IE if you use excel you can choose between solving methods and choose a good enough option that’s slightly faster.

    Just because you personally created one that uses shortcuts and gives an approximate result instead of doing true optimization doesn’t make that standard.

    Or maybe my optimizer uses a Monte Carlo simulation instead of an Integer Program =p. You actually bring up a good point, but I think I didn’t explain myself clearly.

    I know what you mean, and feel feel to correct me if I am wrong, but you are saying basically if you have a set of input data and a set of rules, there will always be 1 optimal solution from that data, regardless of how you get to that solution. I 100% agree with that. I also agree that if you just “approximate” in Excel to save time, you might not get the exact same solution, but if you ran your algorithm forever, eventually you will always get the same global maximum (the optimal lineup). I 100% agree with that.

    However, what if your input data is a set of distributions rather than actual exact integer values. Then two programs would get different results even with the same input data.

    That’s why a Monte Carlo simulation wouldn’t typically return the exact same results every run, but it’s good enough to approximate. If anyone reads my NBA forum posts, they know I look at distributions rather than exact values, so this isn’t something I’m just making up all of a sudden.

  • DFSx42

    JFC you’re talking about randomization and I specifically said without randomization they’d all be identical…

    Seriously man… WTF. There’s higher aspirations in life than fabricating arguments. Please stop.

  • tmarohl

    @DFSx42 said...

    I’m not trying to be a jerk but a lot of what you just stated is incorrect.

    1. Optimizers just follow a set of rules to create a lineup. They don’t produce projections. If you give two different optimizers the same projections and same instructions they’ll produce identical lines.

    2. I’m not sure what you mean about “median projections” yes, it’s possible one site or another simulates output repeatedly and then selects the median result as the projection but you make it seem like this is a rule that all projections are created this way when in fact most are not doing that level of simulations.

    3. Matchups are included in the projections if the projections are even slightly decent. There is no standard projection that you can then modify based on the matchup. Maybe you feel the matchup is better than the projection source believes but otherwise you’re just salting an already salted dish that you assumed is unsalted.

    I use LineupHQ – They use what the developers call, median projections. I’m guessing they are some function of a players minutes, fantasy points per minute, then adjusted by expected pace, and other variables. I use those projections as a starting point. There projections don’t take into account things that I see by watching tons of basketball. I will adjust those projections up or down based on my observations. Some guys are just volatile, and I feel the projections may be wrong. Good example is about the first 25 games of the season, all the optimizers would tell you that the Joker was a good play. By actually watching basketball, and seeing that he wasn’t getting any usage, I adjusted those projections down to what I thought was going to happen.

  • superstars92

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    I need to get some new aspirations in life – 2020 resolution.

  • superjon

    I play anywhere between 100-150.

    60-80 in my player pool.

    I’ll go position by position and take out anyone I don’t want to play.

    Run the optimizer to see who it spits out the most, and then tweak accordingly based on who I actually like.

    At the end, I like to have at least 2 players that are 70% owned or a little higher. Maybe 1 player around 40% to 55% owned, and then 6 to 8 guys in the 30% range. Everyone else is under 30% and just gets rotated around that main core.

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