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Comments
I’m wondering if it’s possible to get some more useful info from the Vegas prop bet line shown over at LineupHQ (or wherever else).
So, for example with the runs O/U, I gather that is the industry consensus for the actual number of runs to be scored (or I guess more accurately, the midpoint of the range), with the game to be just as likely to exceed as fall short of the total. But for the K props, it doesn’t seem to be that granular. For example, on today’s table there’s like 8 guys with a prop of 6.5 Ks. I presume Vegas doesn’t think they’re all gonna nail 6.5 Ks, and this is shown by the fact that they all also have an odds line (-118, +110, -103, etc.). Is it possible to use the two inputs to convert that into an actual predicted strikeout number?
By comparison, with the O/U runs and the game moneyline converted to win%, it’s possible to calculate the implied runs scored by each team. Is there a way to back-calculate the relatively generic K prediction plus the odds to come up with a more precise idea of what Vegas actually thinks the K o/u is? Am I making any sense at all lol?
If I am, I appreciate any insight.
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I take a look at the Vegas K props every day and do something similar to what you’re talking about. I just ballpark it by taking out about .15 from the odds line and adding to the strikeout number. So for example, you’ll often see “Over 6.5 Ks -115; Under 6.5 Ks -115”. In this case, the K number is clearly just 6.5. But then for “Over 6.5 Ks +120; Under 6.5 Ks -160”, I take .15 off the .60 from the -160 odds line, subtract it from the 6.5 and call it 6.05 Ks. I’ve always wondered if there’s a more mathematically accurate way to do this, but it’s what I do. It’s a way to estimate and talk about the Vegas strikeout opinion of pitchers beforehand, but of course in real baseball the guy above rarely seems to end up at 6 or 7 strikeouts – he’ll either have the game of his life and rack up 12 strikeouts, or get shelled in the first inning and end up with zero.
Ha, well that’s baseball, right? Of course, I’ve never seen teams combine for 8.5 runs either…
So on LineupHQ, there’s the K number, and one odds number, like Morton today is 6.5 (-129) and Tanaka is 5.5(+115). Is that the over? So Vegas thinks it’s more likely than not that Morton will exceed and Tanaka will be under?
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Yes I believe that is the over – so in this case you’d estimate Morton at 6.64, and I’d say Tanaka at 5.2. Again this is kind of back-of-the-envelope math, and it seems to fall apart at the larger odds lines, but it allows for ranking the guys in a way based on perceived Vegas strikeout upside.