I’m wondering if it’s possible to get some more useful info from the Vegas prop bet line shown over at LineupHQ (or wherever else).
So, for example with the runs O/U, I gather that is the industry consensus for the actual number of runs to be scored (or I guess more accurately, the midpoint of the range), with the game to be just as likely to exceed as fall short of the total. But for the K props, it doesn’t seem to be that granular. For example, on today’s table there’s like 8 guys with a prop of 6.5 Ks. I presume Vegas doesn’t think they’re all gonna nail 6.5 Ks, and this is shown by the fact that they all also have an odds line (-118, +110, -103, etc.). Is it possible to use the two inputs to convert that into an actual predicted strikeout number?
By comparison, with the O/U runs and the game moneyline converted to win%, it’s possible to calculate the implied runs scored by each team. Is there a way to back-calculate the relatively generic K prediction plus the odds to come up with a more precise idea of what Vegas actually thinks the K o/u is? Am I making any sense at all lol?
If I am, I appreciate any insight.