NASCAR FORUM

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  • gje627

    Growing weary of the drudgery of the NBA season so….

    With 18 days until the start of the NASCAR preseason, and 25 days until the Daytona 500, today I dusted-off the old NASCAR database to review some historical data and plot my strategy for the 2019 season !!!

    So far, I’ve hypothesized a few early-season and very preliminary predictions, developed some “potential” new metrics and analytical approaches, and made some changes to my NASCAR lineup builder/optimizer.

    While I know it’s early and therefore this post/thread will go largely ignored, does anyone else have any early thoughts on the 2019 NASCAR season… good, bad, or ugly?

    In the meantime, for any die-hards out there, to whet your appetite (yes, “whet” is correct… if you want to wet your whistle please grab a Budweiser !!!) below please find some stuff preliminary to the start of the season…. Also at least, and until the season starts maybe we can all use this thread as a general forum to share thoughts/ideas/data regarding the 2019 NASCAR season.

    Nonetheless, regardless of whether or not anyone replies (or is even interested), periodically I will dump some sh*t…. uh, I meant some very interesting and provocative data and analysis below…. :)

    Hope to hear from someone… anyone… soon !!!

    EDIT: When I post tables, frequently the entire table is difficult to read. If anyone has problems viewing each column simply zoom-out and all columns should be visible. If this doesn’t correct the issue, please simply let me know and I will try to fix….

  • gje627

    2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) Schedule

    Date Race # Track Race Miles Stage 1 End Lap Stage 2 End Lap Stage 3 End Lap Stage 4 End Lap
    —————- ————— ———————————————- ———— ————— ————— ————— —————
    02/10/19 Clash Daytona Intl. Spdwy. na na na na na
    02/14/19 Duels Daytona Intl. Spdwy. na na na na na
    02/17/19 1 Daytona Intl. Spdwy. 500.0 60 120 200 na
    02/24/19 2 Atlanta Motor Spdwy. 500.5 85 170 325 na
    03/03/19 3 Las Vegas Motor Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na
    03/10/19 4 ISM (Phoenix) Intl. Rwy. 312.0 75 150 312 na
    03/17/19 5 Auto Club Spdwy. 400.0 60 120 200 na
    03/24/19 6 Martinsville Spdwy. 263.0 130 260 500 na
    03/31/19 7 Texas Motor Spdwy. 501.0 85 170 334 na
    04/07/19 8 Bristol Motor Spdwy. 266.5 125 250 500 na
    04/13/19 9 Richmond Intl. Rwy. 300.0 100 200 400 na
    04/28/19 10 Talladega SuperSpdwy. 500.1 55 110 188 na
    05/05/19 11 Dover Intl. Spdwy. 400.0 120 240 400 na
    05/11/19 12 Kansas Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na
    05/18/19 All-Star Charlotte Motor Spdwy. na na na na na
    05/26/19 13 Charlotte Motor Spdwy. 600.0 100 200 300 400
    06/02/19 14 Pocono Rwy. 400.0 50 100 160 na
    06/09/19 15 Michigan Intl. Spdwy. 400.0 60 120 200 na
    06/23/19 16 Sonoma Rwy. 218.9 25 50 110 na
    06/30/19 17 Chicagoland Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na
    07/06/19 18 Daytona Intl. Spdwy. 400.0 40 80 160 na
    07/13/19 19 Kentucky Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na
    07/21/19 20 NH Motor Spdwy. 318.5 75 150 301 na
    07/28/19 21 Pocono Rwy. 400.0 50 100 160 na
    08/04/19 22 Watkins Glen Intl. 218.5 20 40 90 na
    08/11/19 23 Michigan Intl. Spdwy. 400.0 60 120 200 na
    08/17/19 24 Bristol Motor Spdwy. 266.5 125 250 500 na
    09/01/19 25 Darlington Rwy. 501.3 100 200 367 na
    09/08/19 26 Indianapolis Motor Spdwy. 400.0 50 100 160 na
    09/15/19 27 Las Vegas Motor Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na
    09/21/19 28 Richmond Intl. Rwy. 300.0 100 200 400 na
    09/29/19 29 Charlotte Motor Spdwy ROVAL 248.5 25 50 109 na
    10/06/19 30 Dover Intl. Spdwy. 400.0 120 240 400 na
    10/13/19 31 Talladega SuperSpdwy. 500.1 55 110 188 na
    10/20/19 32 Kansas Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na
    10/27/19 33 Martinsville Spdwy. 263.0 130 260 500 na
    11/03/19 34 Texas Motor Spdwy. 501.0 85 170 334 na
    11/10/19 35 ISM (Phoenix) Intl. Rwy. 312.0 75 150 312 na
    11/17/19 36 Homestead-Miami Spdwy. 400.5 80 160 267 na

    Note: All stage-end laps are estimates based on the 2018 MENCS season. NASCAR is expected to announce official stage-end laps in early February, 2019.

  • gje627

    2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) Full-Time Teams/Drivers

    No. Driver Team Make Crew Chief Engine
    ——— ——————————— ————————— ————————— —————————— ——————-
    00 Landon Cassill StarCom Chevrolet Wayne Carroll ECR Engines
    1 Kurth Busch Chip Ganassi Chevrolet Matt McCall Hendrick MS
    2 Brad Keselowski Team Penske Ford Paul Wolfe Roush-Yates
    3 Austin Dillon RCR Chevrolet Danny Stockman ECR Engines
    4 Kevin Harvick Stewart-Haas Ford Rodney Childers Roush-Yates
    6 Ryan Newman Roush-Fenway Ford Scott Graves Roush-Yates
    8 Daniel Hemric – R RCR Chevrolet Luke Lambert ECR Engines
    9 Chase Elliott Hendrick MS Chevrolet Alan Gustafson Hendrick MS
    10 Aric Almirola Stewart-Haas Ford John Klausmeier Roush-Yates
    11 Denny Hamlin Joe Gibbs Toyota Chris Gabehart TRD
    12 Ryan Blaney Team Penske Ford Jeremy Bullins Roush-Yates
    12 Ty Dillon Germain Chevrolet Matt Borland ECR Engines
    14 Clint Bowyer Stewart-Haas Ford Mike Bugarewicz Roush-Yates
    15 Ross Chastain Premium MS Chevrolet Pat Tryson ECR Engines
    17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Roush-Fenway Ford Brian Pattie Roush-Yates
    18 Kyle Busch Joe Gibbs Toyota Adam Stevens TRD
    19 Martin Truex, Jr. Joe Gibbs Toyota Cole Pearn TRD
    20 Erik Jones Joe Gibbs Toyota Chris Gayle TRD
    21 Paul Menard Wood Bros. Ford Greg Erwin Roush-Yates
    22 Joey Logano Team Penske Ford Todd Gordon Roush-Yates
    24 William Byron Hendrick MS Chevrolet Chad Knaus Hendrick MS
    32 Corey LaJoie Go Fas Ford Randy Cox Roush-Yates
    34 Michael McDowell Front Row MS Ford Drew Blickensderfer Roush-Yates
    36 Matt Tifft – R Front Row MS Ford Mike Kelley Roush-Yates
    37 Chris Buescher JTG Daugherty Chevrolet Trent Owens Hendrick MS
    38 David Ragan Front Row MS Ford Seth Barbour Roush-Yates
    41 Daniel Suarez Stewart-Haas Ford Billy Scott Roush-Yates
    42 Kyle Larson Chip Ganassi Chevrolet Chad Johnston Hendrick MS
    43 Bubba Wallace Richard Petty MS Chevy Unknown ECR Engines
    47 Ryan Preece – R JTG Daugherty Chevrolet Tristan Smith Hendrick MS
    48 Jimmie Johnson Hendrick MS Chevrolet Kevin Meendering Hendrick MS
    51 Mike Wallace Rick Ware Chevrolet/Ford Unknown Roush-Yates
    51 Harrison Rhodes Rick Ware Chevrolet/Ford Unknown Pro-Motor
    51 Cole Custer Rick Ware Chevrolet/Ford Unknown Unknown
    52 Mike Wallace Rick Ware Chevrolet/Ford Unknown Roush-Yates
    52 Cody Ware Rick Ware Chevrolet/Ford Unknown Unknown
    72 Unknown Tri-Star MS Chevrolet Wally Rogers Pro-Motor
    77 Jamie McMurray Spire MS Chevrolet Unknown Unknown
    88 Alex Bowman Hendrick MS Chevrolet Greg Ives Hendrick MS
    95 Matt DiBenedetto Leavine Family Toyota Mike Wheeler TRD
    97 Tanner Berryhill – R Obaika Toyota Dan Stillman Unknown

    Note: An R next to a driver’s name denotes Rookie drivers. Multiple drivers per car indicates shared driving responsibilities. The #72 Tri-Star Chevrolet remains without a charter and may or may not run a full NASCAR Cup race season.

    Drivers Changing Teams: #19 Daniel Suarez (Joe Gibbs Racing) to #41 (Stewart-Haas Racing); #31 Ryan Newman (Richard Childress Racing) to #6 Roush Fenway Racing; #32 Matt DiBenedetto (Go Fas Racing) to #95 (Leavine Family Racing); #41 Kurt Busch (Stewart-Haas Racing) to #1 (Chip Ganassi Racing); #72 Corey LaJoie (TriStar Motorsports) to #32 (Go Fas Racing); #78 Martin Truex, Jr. (Furniture Row Racing) to #19 (Joe Gibbs Racing)

    Drivers/Teams Running Limited Schedules/One-Off Races: Jamie McMurray (Spire Motorsports), like Danica Patrick in 2018, will run the Daytona 500 and then retire. McMurray will also run the pre-season 2019 Clash at Daytona race. Ryan Truex (Tommy Baldwin Racing) and Joey Gase (MBM Motorsports) will run (attempt to qualify for) the Daytona 500.

    Drivers Currently without Teams: Trevor Bayne, A.J. Allmendinger, Jeffrey Earnhardt.

    Drivers Retired After 2018 Season: Matt Kenseth and Kasey Kahne.

    Banruptcy/Ceased Operations: BK Racing Toyota declared bankruptcy and sold charter to Front Row Motorsports; Furniture Row Racing ceased operations.

    Unknown: Premimum Motorsports Racing – Reed Sorenson, J.J. Yeley, D.J. Kennington, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Jesse Little and Joey Gase; Richard Childress Racing – Tyler Reddick. Gaunt Brothers Racing D.J. Kennington, Parker Kligerman; MBM Motorsports – Timmy Hill, Carl Long, Mark Thompson; Ricky Benton Racing Ford – Timothy Peters; StarCom Racing Chevy/GMS Racing – Derrike Cope, Garrett Smithley, Kyle Weatherman.

  • gje627

    2018 Final Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) Draftkings Driver Total Fantasy Points

    Driver Starts Place Diff FPts Fast Laps FPts Laps Led FPts Fin. Pos. FPts Total FPts
    ————————————- ———— ————— ————— ————— ————— ————-
    A.J. Allmendinger 36 31 29.5 4.75 819 884.25
    Alex Bowman 36 -139 102.5 17.75 972 953.25
    Alon Day 1 -4 0 0 6 2
    Aric Almirola 36 101 151.5 45.25 1128 1425.75
    Austin Dillon 36 47 54 5.75 958 1064.75
    B.J. McLeod 14 23 0 0 147 170
    Blake Jones 3 26 0 0 42 68
    Brad Keselowski 36 -109 247 176.25 1112 1426.25
    Brendan Gaughan 4 25 6 0.5 102 133.5
    Bubba Wallace 36 9 17 4.75 702 732.75
    Chad Finchum 1 5 0 0 11 16
    Chase Elliott 36 -43 162 81.25 1152 1352.25
    Chris Buescher 36 22 19.5 0.25 828 869.75
    Chris Cook 1 5 0 0 13 18
    Clint Bowyer 36 -1 199 122.5 1095 1415.5
    Cody Ware 4 15 0 0 38 53
    Cole Custer 3 -9 0.5 0 55 46.5
    Cole Whitt 13 87 18 0 223 328
    Corey LaJoie 23 29 4.5 0 287 320.5
    D.J. Kennington 10 74 4.5 0 175 253.5
    Danica Patrick 1 -7 1.5 0 9 3.5
    Daniel Hemric 2 -22 0 0 33 11
    Daniel Suarez 36 -40 60 8.75 918 946.75
    David Gilliland 1 25 1.5 0 30 56.5
    David Ragan 36 46 20.5 0 760 826.5
    David Starr 2 -2 0 0 10 8
    Denny Hamlin 36 -82 204 95 1132 1349
    Derrike Cope 3 8 0 0 28 36
    Erik Jones 36 -122 111.5 24.75 1083 1097.25
    Garrett Smithley 3 3 0 0 25 28
    Gray Gaulding 20 19 1 0 251 271
    Harrison Rhodes 6 15 0 0 63 78
    Hermie Sadler 1 -9 0 0 4 -5
    J.J. Yeley 18 66 2 0 234 302
    Jamie McMurray 36 -29 29 2.25 903 905.25
    Jeb Burton 1 6 0 0 11 17
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 17 45 3.5 0 223 271.5
    Jesse Little 2 1 0 0 18 19
    Jimmie Johnson 36 88 84.5 10 982 1164.5
    Joey Gase 8 38 8 0 103 149
    Joey Logano 36 -31 138.5 233.5 1209 1550
    Josh Bilicki 1 -3 0 0 8 5
    Justin Marks 3 26 1.5 0.25 65 92.75
    Kasey Kahne 25 79 38 7.5 529 653.5
    Kevin Harvick 36 -3 647.5 497.5 1290 2432
    Kurt Busch 36 -120 223.5 161 1151 1415.5
    Kyle Busch 36 -32 499.5 367.25 1309 2143.75
    Kyle Larson 36 8 311.5 195.5 1132 1647
    Kyle Weatherman 7 3 0 0 82 85
    Landon Cassill 29 122 9.5 0 415 546.5
    Mark Thompson 1 18 0 0 22 40
    Martin Truex, Jr. 36 -28 382 254 1210 1818
    Matt DiBenedetto 36 77 17.5 2 613 709.5
    Matt Kenseth 15 31 9 1.25 362 403.25
    Michael McDowell 36 -54 35.5 8.25 701 690.75
    Parker Kligerman 4 22 0 0 71 93
    Paul Menard 36 -80 61 3.5 884 868.5
    Ray Black, Jr. 1 23 0 0 28 51
    Reed Sorenson 14 30 0.5 0 160 190.5
    Regan Smith 11 60 11.5 2.5 231 305
    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 36 -166 98.5 33.25 887 852.75
    Ross Chastain 34 113 11 0.25 529 653.25
    Ryan Blaney 36 -197 172 165 1053 1193
    Ryan Newman 36 -68 68 14.25 963 977.25
    Spencer Gallagher 1 -1 0 0 9 8
    Stanton Barrett 1 -1 0 0 4 3
    Tanner Berryhill 2 4 0 0 19 23
    Timmy Hill 21 30 1.5 0 174 205.5
    Timothy Peters 1 9 1 0 21 31
    Tomy Drissi 1 5 0 0 12 17
    Trevor Bayne 21 -69 30 0 422 383
    Ty Dillon 36 111 20 0.75 715 846.75
    William Byron 36 -159 36.5 15.25 789 681.75
  • gje627

    2018 Final Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series (MENCS) FanDuel Driver Total Fantasy Points

    Driver Starts Place Diff FPts Laps Complete FPts Laps Led FPts Fin. Pos. FPts Total FPts
    ————————————- ———— ————— —————- ————— ————— ————-
    A.J. Allmendinger 36 15.5 921.4 1.9 711 1649.8
    Alex Bowman 36 -69.5 997.7 7.1 864 1799.3
    Alon Day 1 -2 38.3 0 3 39.3
    Aric Almirola 36 50.5 1000.3 18.1 1020 2088.9
    Austin Dillon 36 23.5 999.3 2.3 850 1875.1
    B.J. McLeod 14 11.5 344.3 0 105 460.8
    Blake Jones 3 13 96.8 0 33 142.8
    Brad Keselowski 36 -54.5 978.8 70.5 1007 2001.8
    Brendan Gaughan 4 12.5 74.7 0.2 90 177.4
    Bubba Wallace 36 4.5 939.1 1.9 595 1540.5
    Chad Finchum 1 2.5 33.5 0 8 44
    Chase Elliott 36 -21.5 985 32.5 1045 2041
    Chris Buescher 36 11 975.9 0.1 720 1707
    Chris Cook 1 2.5 10.9 0 10 23.4
    Clint Bowyer 36 -0.5 991.1 49 989 2028.6
    Cody Ware 4 7.5 77.7 0 26 111.2
    Cole Custer 3 -4.5 82 0 46 123.5
    Cole Whitt 13 43.5 338.9 0 184 566.4
    Corey LaJoie 23 14.5 507.3 0 218 739.8
    D.J. Kennington 10 37 296.2 0 145 478.2
    Danica Patrick 1 -3.5 10.1 0 6 12.6
    Daniel Hemric 2 -11 50.8 0 27 66.8
    Daniel Suarez 36 -20 968.2 3.5 811 1762.7
    David Gilliland 1 12.5 20.6 0 27 60.1
    David Ragan 36 23 988.2 0 652 1663.2
    David Starr 2 -1 34.4 0 4 37.4
    Denny Hamlin 36 -41 992.6 38 1026 2015.6
    Derrike Cope 3 4 64.2 0 19 87.2
    Erik Jones 36 -61 983.6 9.9 976 1908.5
    Garrett Smithley 3 1.5 44.5 0 16 62
    Gray Gaulding 20 9.5 499.7 0 191 700.2
    Harrison Rhodes 6 7.5 192 0 45 244.5
    Hermie Sadler 1 -4.5 23 0 1 19.5
    J.J. Yeley 18 33 467.4 0 180 680.4
    Jamie McMurray 36 -14.5 979.9 0.9 796 1762.3
    Jeb Burton 1 3 48.9 0 8 59.9
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 17 22.5 405.6 0 172 600.1
    Jesse Little 2 0.5 31.2 0 12 43.7
    Jimmie Johnson 36 44 976.4 4 874 1898.4
    Joey Gase 8 19 207.7 0 79 305.7
    Joey Logano 36 -15.5 982.6 93.4 1102 2162.5
    Josh Bilicki 1 -1.5 6.9 0 5 10.4
    Justin Marks 3 13 42.3 0.1 56 111.4
    Kasey Kahne 25 39.5 658.4 3 454 1154.9
    Kevin Harvick 36 -1.5 969.1 199 1186 2352.6
    Kurt Busch 36 -60 999.2 64.4 1044 2047.6
    Kyle Busch 36 -16 1000.1 146.9 1206 2337
    Kyle Larson 36 4 976.8 78.2 1030 2089
    Kyle Weatherman 7 1.5 177.4 0 61 239.9
    Landon Cassill 29 61 783.2 0 328 1172.2
    Mark Thompson 1 9 20.3 0 19 48.3
    Martin Truex, Jr. 36 -14 976 101.6 1107 2170.6
    Matt DiBenedetto 36 38.5 961 0.8 505 1505.3
    Matt Kenseth 15 15.5 416.2 0.5 317 749.2
    Michael McDowell 36 -27 896.4 3.3 593 1465.7
    Parker Kligerman 4 11 92.2 0 59 162.2
    Paul Menard 36 -40 941 1.4 776 1678.4
    Ray Black, Jr. 1 11.5 16.7 0 25 53.2
    Reed Sorenson 14 15 329.7 0 118 462.7
    Regan Smith 11 30 316.2 1 198 545.2
    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 36 -83 1007.6 13.3 779 1716.9
    Ross Chastain 34 56.5 894.5 0.1 427 1378.1
    Ryan Blaney 36 -98.5 952.5 66 947 1867
    Ryan Newman 36 -34 1007.7 5.7 855 1834.4
    Spencer Gallagher 1 -0.5 7.3 0 6 12.8
    Stanton Barrett 1 -0.5 1.1 0 1 1.6
    Tanner Berryhill 2 2 53.7 0 13 68.7
    Timmy Hill 21 15 439.3 0 111 565.3
    Timothy Peters 1 4.5 18.7 0 18 41.2
    Tomy Drissi 1 2.5 10.8 0 9 22.3
    Trevor Bayne 21 -34.5 575.2 0 359 899.7
    Ty Dillon 36 55.5 987.1 0.3 607 1649.9
    William Byron 36 -79.5 935.2 6.1 681 1542.8
  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Below is a link to the schedule but more importantly the type of package the cars will be using for each race. Many have said the new package is going to reduce passing, especially for the lead, while many are very excited for the new package as they feel it will increase passing. Truth be known, nobody knows what the new package will provide until multiple cars are on the track using it. Daytona will be the last race with restrictor plates and after that cars will use on of the following packages.
    750 HP No aero ducts at 1 mile or smaller tracks
    550 HP No aero ducts at Atlanta, Pocono and Miami
    550 HP yes aero ducts at all other tracks
    It will be important to know which package is being used each week as it may impact the performance of the car.

    https://i.redd.it/ki3o60ezl6b21.jpg

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Below is a link to the schedule but more importantly the type of package the cars will be using for each race. Many have said the new package is going to reduce passing, especially for the lead, while many are very excited for the new package as they feel it will increase passing. Truth be known, nobody knows what the new package will provide until multiple cars are on the track using it. Daytona will be the last race with restrictor plates and after that cars will use on of the following packages.
    750 HP No aero ducts at 1 mile or smaller tracks
    550 HP No aero ducts at Atlanta, Pocono and Miami
    550 HP yes aero ducts at all other tracks
    It will be important to know which package is being used each week as it may impact the performance of the car.

    https://i.redd.it/ki3o60ezl6b21.jpg

    By 2020 NASCAR’s goal is to reduce the horsepower of all cars to 0…. The plan is to run cars like those seen on the Flintstones just so they can make races at all the cookie-cutter mile-and-half tracks “fun” and competitive !!!

    YABBA-DABBA-DOO !!!

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Per Jeff Gluck…looks like a new qualifying format will be used this year after Daytona…

    NASCAR says they’re waiting to announce how qualifying will work during a media briefing in early Feb. Your questions are shared by many because Cup cars will in theory be able to draft off each other and get a faster qual time this year.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Per Jeff Gluck…looks like a new qualifying format will be used this year after Daytona…

    NASCAR says they’re waiting to announce how qualifying will work during a media briefing in early Feb. Your questions are shared by many because Cup cars will in theory be able to draft off each other and get a faster qual time this year.

    Share?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Share?

    Someone had just mentioned to him that they were hearing rumblings that qualifying may be changed to group qualifying and that was his response…that’s all I know.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Many have said the new package is going to reduce passing, especially for the lead, while many are very excited for the new package as they feel it will increase passing. Truth be known, nobody knows what the new package will provide until multiple cars are on the track using it. Daytona will be the last race with restrictor plates and after that cars will use on of the following packages.

    I’ve looked at some of the changes and personally believe that it will neither increase or decrease passing…. At least not substantially. Instead (and hopefully) we’ll see a different kind of passing… less aero dependent and more driver/car dependent. For the most part, the promise is to lessen aero passing (and conversely aero stalls) on straightaways and make corner entry/exit passing more important and critical; translating into more skill by the driver; as well as increasing the likelihood of multiple grooves and therefore three-wide racing on the straightaways.

    In this regards, the type of racing NASCAR seems to be trying to replicate is NASCAR Truck Series racing….

    If this is true….

    That would be fantastic….

    As the Truck Series is far-and-away the best racing in NASCAR.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Someone had just mentioned to him that they were hearing rumblings that qualifying may be changed to group qualifying and that was his response…that’s all I know.

    Thank you. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    By 2020 NASCAR’s goal is to reduce the horsepower of all cars to 0…. The plan is to run cars like those seen on the Flintstones just so they can make races at all the cookie-cutter mile-and-half tracks “fun” and competitive !!!

    YABBA-DABBA-DOO !!!

    I think you will see major changes in 2020 with the schedule. Races in Iowa, Nashville, maybe even the Rock. The schedule may run from January to August or September…races might be packaged together, meaning something like Bristol Wednesday night, Richmond Friday night and then Martinsville Sunday. Friday night racing would be awesome as that is were I got my roots into racing as a kid. I think NASCAR has finally realized they need to has a little wrap over with football as possible…

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    I’ve looked at some of the changes and personally believe that it will neither increase or decrease passing…. At least not substantially. Instead (and hopefully) we’ll see a different kind of passing… less aero dependent and more driver/car dependent. For the most part, the promise is to lessen aero passing (and conversely aero stalls) on straightaways and make corner entry/exit passing more important and critical; translating into more skill by the driver; as well as increasing the likelihood of multiple grooves and therefore three-wide racing on the straightaways.

    In this regards, the type of racing NASCAR seems to be trying to replicate is NASCAR Truck Series racing….

    If this is true….

    That would be fantastic….

    As the Truck Series is far-and-away the best racing in NASCAR.

    Agree on trucks, they put on great shows last year!

  • dbullsfan

    Ahh like sex, when it has been too long.

    I imagine qualifying will be similar to the old style, with drafting even on 1.5 tracks this year nascar and the teams are gonna wanna get away from that to avoid damaging cars…and for us who wants Landon Cassill qualifying 18th somehow.

    Really excited about this year, im really excited to see what Hemric can do in the 8 car this year, Im super biased but I think RCR brings it this year and gets at least 2-3 wins between Dillon, Hemric, and Bubba.

  • dbullsfan

    @Cooper08 said...

    Agree on trucks, they put on great shows last year!

    100% love the trucks, also I cant wait to see Noah Gragson full time in Xfinity. This kid has skills and just an insane desire to win rivaled by maybe only Ricky Bobby and Kyle Busch

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I think you will see major changes in 2020 with the schedule. Races in Iowa, Nashville, maybe even the Rock.

    Please….

    Don’t tease me with Rockingham !!!

    I’m emotionally fragile and don’t take disappointment well (:

    Let’s get some dirt races too !!! :)

  • gje627

    @dbullsfan said...

    100% love the trucks, also I cant wait to see Noah Gragson full time in Xfinity. This kid has skills and just an insane desire to win rivaled by maybe only Ricky Bobby and Kyle Busch

    Agree on Noah Gregson…. The next superstar !!!

    Regarding Hemric… Matt Tifft shocks the NASCAR world by defeating Hemric to win Rookie of the Year !!! :)

    Really look forward to Christopher Bell making the leap to the big series in 2020 as well.

  • gje627

    13 Early Predictions….

    1. Ryan Blaney edges-out Chase Elliott for the MENCS Championship.
    2. Chase Elliott finishes the season with the most wins (6).
    3. William Byron wins his first MENCS race and makes the playoffs.
    4. The “Big 3” (Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr.) combine to win only 9 races. The new “Big 4” (Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones) combine to win 16 races.
    5. Denny Hamlin has the fewest pit penalties of all full-time Cup drivers.
    6. Jimmie Johnson, sans Chad Knaus, continues his downward spiral and by early July confirms that this will be his final NASCAR season.
    7. The 2019 Rules Package is “ho-hum” as many races stretch over 4 hours and both TV ratings and the NASCAR fan-base continue a rapid descent.
    8. The Gander Outdoors Truck Series remains the most exciting and most entertaining series in NASCAR.
    9. Except for Ryan Blaney, Stewart-Haas and Team Penske drivers struggle with the new Ford Mustang early in the year.
    10. 2018 MENCS Champion Joey Logano fails to reach the playoffs.
    11. Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, David Ragan, and Chris Buescher win the 4 Superspeedway races at Daytona and Talladega and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. takes out at least one-third of the field in 2 of 4 the races.
    12. Ross Chastain, Ryan Newman, William Byron, David Ragan, and Aric Almirola exceed expectations and Kurt Busch, Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, and Bubba Wallace disappoint.
    13. Tanner Berryhill finishes DNF in his first 10 starts and fails to finish on the lead lap in every non-Superspeedway, non-road-course race in 2019.

  • gje627

    Below, please find two tables, one each for Draftkings and FanDuel. For each race this year, the tables list the minimum scores needed to win a Cash game contest, to score above the cash line in a GPP, and to win a GPP. If anyone wants to play with some numbers, I have also included the mean and standard deviation for each race.

    Importantly, since the number of previous races at the Charlotte ROVAL is only one, insufficient data exists to make an accurate projection for that race…. With that said, I nonetheless included some data for this race.

    Personally, for a number of reasons, I believe that this is one of the more important calculations to make each race in order to properly construct lineups….

    Since the explanation is far too long, I have chosen not to explain my methodology or any qualifications in the numbers below.

    EDIT: Okay, a few, but not all, notes on the numbers below…. All data used in the calculations below standardized to a field of 40 drivers and, for fantasy points dependent on laps run, miles/laps per race equal to the total scheduled miles/laps for each race in 2019 (i.e. numbers below assume no overtime and no shortened races due to inclement weather, etc.; additionally, for obvious reasons place differential and finishing position points were not adjusted because these scores are not dependent on laps run… e.g. a driver with 30 place differential points in a 200 lap race can not score 60 place differential points in a 400 lap race, also regarding finishing position, regardless of the miles/laps in a race someone will need to finish 1,2,3,…35.36, etc). Also, lineup size is 6 for Draftkings and 5 for FanDuel; this is reflected in the numbers below. Finally, for most races the top 6 fantasy scoring drivers on Draftkings, and top 5 on FanDuel, can not be included in the same lineup due to salary constraints. Thus, accommodations have been made in the numbers below to account for salary limitations.

    However….

    If anyone has questions, please feel free to ask !!! :)

    2019 MENCS DraftKings Fantasy Points Needed per Race & Contest Type

    Race# Track n Mean Std. dev. Cash Games Cash in GPP Win GPP
    ——— —————————————— —— ————— —————- ——————— ———————- ———————-
    01 Daytona Intl. Spdwy. 28 381.15 24.292 381.71 395.44 411.62
    02 Atlanta Motor Spdwy. 20 433.86 31.456 435.50 457.86 478.10
    03 Las Vegas Motor Spdwy. 15 412.59 27.446 405.00 417.48 449.00
    04 Phoenix Intl. Rcwy. 28 425.18 25.715 426.89 443.82 455.25
    05 Auto Club Spdwy. 20 380.97 24.196 382.35 395.66 400.50
    06 Martinsville Spdwy. 28 492.07 34.499 495.31 510.13 530.50
    07 Texas Motor Spdwy. 28 435.09 23.499 434.13 449.75 465.86
    08 Bristol Motor Spdwy. 28 485.98 38.285 482.26 520.38 539.00
    09 Richmond Intl. Rcwy. 28 456.60 30.964 461.75 479.13 491.75
    10 Talladega SuperSpdwy. 28 367.01 21.650 366.50 380.29 397.09
    11 Dover Intl. Spdwy. 28 466.24 26.264 466.50 479.75 508.75
    12 Kansas Spdwy. 22 404.32 22.871 404.13 426.50 430.00
    13 Charl. Motor Spdwy. 27 452.34 33.497 456.43 481.75 488.75
    14 Pocono Rcwy. 28 356.72 23.521 354.90 365.90 394.65
    15 Michigan Intl. Spdwy. 28 377.18 20.783 376.99 393.70 405.50
    16 Sonoma Rcwy. 14 349.05 27.439 339.63 369.75 391.25
    17 Chicagoland Spdwy. 14 405.51 22.561 407.87 419.00 425.25
    18 Daytona Intl. Spdwy. 28 374.19 24.563 372.12 389.88 405.89
    19 Kentucky Spdwy. 8 407.99 24.712 405.50 427.95 443.50
    20 NH Motor Spdwy. 27 416.59 20.062 415.00 429.67 447.06
    21 Pocono Rcwy. 28 356.72 23.521 354.90 365.90 394.65
    22 Watkins Glen Intl. 14 328.83 23.469 323.84 335.72 363.72
    23 Michigan Intl. Spdwy. 28 377.18 20.783 376.99 393.70 405.50
    24 Bristol Motor Spdwy. 28 485.98 38.285 482.26 520.38 539.00
    25 Darlington Rcwy. 14 439.24 27.844 444.62 458.05 477.25
    26 Indianapolis Motor Spdwy. 14 360.46 15.071 362.50 371.12 380.00
    27 Las Vegas Motor Spdwy. 15 412.59 27.446 405.00 417.48 449.00
    28 Richmond Intl. Rcwy. 28 456.60 30.964 461.75 479.13 491.75
    29 Charl. Motor Spdwy. ROVAL 1 294.25 NaN 294.25 294.25 294.25
    30 Dover Intl. Spdwy. 28 466.24 26.264 466.50 479.75 508.75
    31 Talladega SuperSpdwy. 28 367.01 21.650 366.50 380.29 397.09
    32 Kansas Spdwy. 22 404.32 22.871 404.13 426.50 430.00
    33 Martinsville Spdwy. 28 492.07 34.499 495.31 510.13 530.50
    34 Texas Motor Spdwy. 28 435.09 23.499 434.13 449.75 465.86
    35 Phoenix Intl. Rcwy. 28 425.18 25.715 426.89 443.82 455.25
    36 Homestead-Miami Spdwy. 14 410.26 21.905 403.25 426.75 436.00

    2019 MENCS FanDuel Fantasy Points Needed per Race & Contest Type

    Race# Track n Mean Std. dev. Cash Games Cash in GPP Win GPP
    ——— —————————————— —— ————— —————- ——————— ———————- ———————-
    01 Daytona Intl. Spdwy. 28 340.53 11.950 338.90 348.10 360.29
    02 Atlanta Motor Spdwy. 20 403.15 8.631 400.25 410.87 414.85
    03 Las Vegas Motor Spdwy. 15 368.35 12.792 365.20 373.80 378.40
    04 Phoenix Intl. Rcwy. 28 390.20 8.837 390.76 396.51 404.00
    05 Auto Club Spdwy. 20 329.86 8.606 328.91 333.32 339.84
    06 Martinsville Spdwy. 28 500.19 11.460 502.24 508.20 511.79
    07 Texas Motor Spdwy. 28 405.77 8.872 404.45 412.10 417.30
    08 Bristol Motor Spdwy. 28 500.21 12.273 497.95 511.71 516.50
    09 Richmond Intl. Rcwy. 28 440.94 10.601 440.44 448.30 456.00
    10 Talladega SuperSpdwy. 28 329.86 10.215 328.11 335.79 343.90
    11 Dover Intl. Spdwy. 28 441.94 9.090 441.15 448.50 455.40
    12 Kansas Spdwy. 22 365.85 9.131 363.95 373.60 378.40
    13 Charl. Motor Spdwy. 27 440.70 10.422 440.50 449.30 452.46
    14 Pocono Rcwy. 28 303.87 9.725 300.54 309.61 316.62
    15 Michigan Intl. Spdwy. 28 329.30 9.160 327.07 336.56 340.30
    16 Sonoma Rcwy. 14 281.90 12.967 277.41 290.10 301.00
    17 Chicagoland Spdwy. 14 366.53 9.631 369.09 373.40 376.60
    18 Daytona Intl. Spdwy. 28 318.90 12.099 317.89 326.39 338.43
    19 Kentucky Spdwy. 8 361.94 8.453 360.70 369.71 374.00
    20 NH Motor Spdwy. 27 383.27 7.492 382.00 388.10 393.49
    21 Pocono Rcwy. 28 303.87 9.725 300.54 309.61 316.62
    22 Watkins Glen Intl. 14 264.32 10.111 263.70 267.19 278.94
    23 Michigan Intl. Spdwy. 28 329.30 9.160 327.07 336.56 340.30
    24 Bristol Motor Spdwy. 28 500.21 12.273 497.95 511.71 516.50
    25 Darlington Rcwy. 14 423.62 12.299 424.92 430.60 436.90
    26 Indianapolis Motor Spdwy. 14 304.19 7.203 303.95 310.20 313.80
    27 Las Vegas Motor Spdwy. 15 368.35 12.792 365.20 373.80 378.40
    28 Richmond Intl. Rcwy. 28 440.94 10.601 440.44 448.30 456.00
    29 Charl. Motor Spdwy. ROVAL 1 259.70 NaN 259.70 259.70 259.70
    30 Dover Intl. Spdwy. 28 441.94 9.090 441.15 448.50 455.40
    31 Talladega SuperSpdwy. 28 329.86 10.215 328.11 335.79 343.90
    32 Kansas Spdwy. 22 365.85 9.131 363.95 373.60 378.40
    33 Martinsville Spdwy. 28 500.19 11.460 502.24 508.20 511.79
    34 Texas Motor Spdwy. 28 405.77 8.872 404.45 412.10 417.30
    35 Phoenix Intl. Rcwy. 28 390.20 8.837 390.76 396.51 404.00
    36 Homestead-Miami Spdwy. 14 367.90 10.530 367.10 377.40 378.70

    Column Defintions

    Race self-explanatory
    Track self-explanatory
    n number of races used in calculations
    Mean mathematical mean/average, non-transformed
    Std. dev. standard deviation, non-transformed
    Cash Games score needed to win most Cash games, primarily 50/50s as H2Hs cannot be calculated as a contestant could play against a single competitor who ends-up with a very large score or, conversely, a very low score, transformed.
    Cash in GPP the minimum score expected to minimally cash in most GPPs (i.e. get your entry fee back and maybe a little more), transformed
    Win GPP the typical score needed to win a standard GPP (may or may not be the “big” GPP for each respective site, but a typical-sized GPP), transformed

    END

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    13 Early Predictions….

    1. Ryan Blaney edges-out Chase Elliott for the MENCS Championship.
    2. Chase Elliott finishes the season with the most wins (6).
    3. William Byron wins his first MENCS race and makes the playoffs.
    4. The “Big 3” (Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, Jr.) combine to win only 9 races. The new “Big 4” (Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Erik Jones) combine to win 16 races.
    5. Denny Hamlin has the fewest pit penalties of all full-time Cup drivers.
    6. Jimmie Johnson, sans Chad Knaus, continues his downward spiral and by early July confirms that this will be his final NASCAR season.
    7. The 2019 Rules Package is “ho-hum” as many races stretch over 4 hours and both TV ratings and the NASCAR fan-base continue a rapid descent.
    8. The Gander Outdoors Truck Series remains the most exciting and most entertaining series in NASCAR.
    9. Except for Ryan Blaney, Stewart-Haas and Team Penske drivers struggle with the new Ford Mustang early in the year.
    10. 2018 MENCS Champion Joey Logano fails to reach the playoffs.
    11. Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, David Ragan, and Chris Buescher win the 4 Superspeedway races at Daytona and Talladega and Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. takes out at least one-third of the field in 2 of 4 the races.
    12. Ross Chastain, Ryan Newman, William Byron, David Ragan, and Aric Almirola exceed expectations and Kurt Busch, Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer, and Bubba Wallace disappoint.
    13. Tanner Berryhill finishes DNF in his first 10 starts and fails to finish on the lead lap in every non-Superspeedway, non-road-course race in 2019.

    Nice predictions…I am hoping Chase is priced down, comparatively, at the beginning of the season as he finished very strong last year. It may also be worthwhile to do some Chevy/Toyota stacks early in season if Ford does struggle. Indication would be that they do as Toyota and Chevy struggled when they initially started with new car.

  • gje627

    For those who care….

    Edited my immediately preceding table to include column header descriptions….

    I had some excellent questions via PM and it made sense to clarify….

    At least a little bit !!! :)

    EDIT: Also, again, if the columns in the table seem to run together or you can’t see 8 columns in each table, please zoom-out your browser screen. I had another PM on this….

    Sorry for my table formatting ineptitude !!!! (:

  • joephoto

    I’m glad there is a thread up for NASCAR.
    Very much looking forward to playing the 30 different $10 tickets I won playing NFL for Daytona.
    I’ve always played one lineup for Nascar. Now I get to go crazy with 30 !

  • Nos

  • DefinitelyMiami

    Extremely weak of Draftkings not to put up a Daytona 500 contest until after the Super Bowl

  • ScuddyStud

    A Fantasy NASCAR thread with gje throwing out stats left and right. All’s well in the world again 😎

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