NASCAR FORUM

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  • gje627

    Growing weary of the drudgery of the NBA season so….

    With 18 days until the start of the NASCAR preseason, and 25 days until the Daytona 500, today I dusted-off the old NASCAR database to review some historical data and plot my strategy for the 2019 season !!!

    So far, I’ve hypothesized a few early-season and very preliminary predictions, developed some “potential” new metrics and analytical approaches, and made some changes to my NASCAR lineup builder/optimizer.

    While I know it’s early and therefore this post/thread will go largely ignored, does anyone else have any early thoughts on the 2019 NASCAR season… good, bad, or ugly?

    In the meantime, for any die-hards out there, to whet your appetite (yes, “whet” is correct… if you want to wet your whistle please grab a Budweiser !!!) below please find some stuff preliminary to the start of the season…. Also at least, and until the season starts maybe we can all use this thread as a general forum to share thoughts/ideas/data regarding the 2019 NASCAR season.

    Nonetheless, regardless of whether or not anyone replies (or is even interested), periodically I will dump some sh*t…. uh, I meant some very interesting and provocative data and analysis below…. :)

    Hope to hear from someone… anyone… soon !!!

    EDIT: When I post tables, frequently the entire table is difficult to read. If anyone has problems viewing each column simply zoom-out and all columns should be visible. If this doesn’t correct the issue, please simply let me know and I will try to fix….

  • gje627

    @dbullsfan said...

    Congrats and shucks at the same time, I’m admittedly a very old 33 and don’t always understand the analytics and numbers but find them very intriguing and you have always been an amazing contributor to this community despite your amazing success, which can’t be said for a lot of top dfs players. I wish you the best of luck in everything you do in dfs and the rest.

    Thanks for your kind words dbullsfan !!!

    I’ve always looked forward to hearing your opinion/thoughts/advice on upcoming races/drivers….

    And will continue to do so !!!

    Though as a “lurker” and not an active participant.

    Take care !!!

    Oh…. Said my previous post would be my last…. A little misleading, as in the short-term, I feel obligated to reply to comments directed my way. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    So, in closing….

    And, as always….

    I can’t wait to see everyone here at the top leaderboard this NASCAR season !!!

    Good Luck, Take Care, and Best Wishes Everyone !!! :)

    Good luck Gary! I am sure you will succeed at your next endeavor. Don’t be a stranger and keep us up to date on how things are going.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Good luck Gary! I am sure you will succeed at your next endeavor. Don’t be a stranger and keep us up to date on how things are going.

    Thanks Coop !!!

    Please, please, start-up your NASCAR blog again….

    I really (really, really) need to steal all your notes again this year !!! :)

    Take care !!!

  • wscooby

    @gje627 said...

    Hey Guys and Gals,

    Real quick….

    For all of you sick of my too-long, terribly formatted data and analytics tables, my confusing and long-winded methodological mathematical/statistical/programming monologues (yes, most/all?… tedious, wearisome and boring), and my occasional (okay, often) off-putting personality and general grumpiness…..

    Great News !!!

    This message will be my final post here at RG related to NASCAR (and likely mathematics/statistics/ programming/other sports… particularly UFC) as well… at least for awhile.

    Without going into specifics, as I don’t want to break RG’s terms of service, last year I was first approached, and as a result of the recent gaming ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court, finally/recently succumbed to an offer by some folks interested in working on some cutting-edge DFS and gambling related “stuff”; primarily in the areas of mathematics, statistics, and programming…. Think DataCamp meets Codeacademy meets StackOverflow meets MIT Sloan Sports Analytics, meets projections/ advice…. all in a maker-space like setting….

    As such, since I’m almost exclusively a numbers player (i.e, a total DFS/gambling moron-dumbass without numbers), this is right up my alley !!!

    Nevertheless, since my initial focus will be on NASCAR, it would be in very poor ethical taste to continue posting here…. Thus, this is it.

    With that said, sweating NASCAR with everyone here has been a hoot. Furthermore, given the talent and insight of all those who participate in this thread, I have zero doubts that everyone here will crush-it this year in NASCAR DFS.

    So, in closing….

    And, as always….

    I can’t wait to see everyone here at the top leaderboard this NASCAR season !!!

    Good Luck, Take Care, and Best Wishes Everyone !!! :)

    Dang, just as I was hoping to pick your (bigger brain than mine) for a full season here, it disappears. So sad to see you go, wish you much success!!

  • gje627

    @wscooby said...

    Dang, just as I was hoping to pick your (bigger brain than mine) for a full season here, it disappears. So sad to see you go, wish you much success!!

    Hey wscooby….

    Personally, I think you have a better handle on NASCAR than you think, so I really doubt you need my advice much anyways….

    Nonetheless, since I’m leaving, I’ll let you in on a little secret….

    Every time you ask me for advice, I in turn PM Coop and Dbulls with your questions.

    When they reply, I copy-and-paste their answers and send them to you !!! :)

    Anyways thanks for being so cool these last few years. I’ve always greatly enjoyed both your input and feedback, and your kindness in these threads.

    With that said….

    If you kick my a** in NASCAR this year, I take-back everything I’ve said above !!! LOL !!! :)

  • dbullsfan

    To trend off a bit of GJE, to an “old school” gut process on some predictions for 2019, interesting to listen to Stevie/Mark on the preview show on the subscription (anyone who isn’t signed up I highly….HIGHLY…recommend it.) I know I’m guilty of losing site of the forums during the season but the chat in their is always extremely active.

    First off a lot of changes in 2019 with the aero package, team changes, rookies coming up etc…

    first, first time winner…..I’m going to go with Daniel Suarez although I would not be shocked to see Daniel Hemric take down the Daytona 500, we say Austin Dillon win and Bubba not be far behind at the plate tracks, Hemric is a hell of a plate racer in his own right and I think RCR is on a mission to make a statement this year and will get multiple wins as a team. That being said I think Suarez is in an optimal spot. I think he is an extremely talented racer that won the lottery falling into SHR. He now gets to learn from Harvick/Bowyer/Almirola and will win multiple races this year.

    Rookie of the year….Despite my affection for Daniel Hemric and RCR I am actually going to give this to Matt Tifft. I think Tifft is a hard nosed, no BS type of racer who by years end we will be like, godddangit that guy bout finished every race top 20. Tifft is a heck of a driver, will stay out of trouble and keep himself in the draft on the 1.5 at least.

    Surprise driver in the final 4 at Homestead…….Big shocker to those who know me, but I’m going with my guy here……Austin Dillon. I think the guy can drive and has been busting his ass with a chip on his shoulder for a few years now, maybe it’s inside information who knows but he has been studying up hardcore on plate racing and I think he excells with the new Aero package and finds himself with multiple wins this year and with a chance at Homestead.

    Champion……Kyle Larson finally gets it done….Larson’s wild style finally comes to pass as he is able to push the limit with the new restrictions and run his loose race car all over the track and ultimately to victory at Homestead. Larson is probably the most talented driver on the track right now…….Christopher Bell is coming…and I think his natural abilities dominate the circuit this year.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    NASCAR has a two day practice in Las Vegas that started today with the new package that will be used this year at select tracks. Below are my thoughts and keep in mind this is a small sample size, only 14 cars for 25 laps. There is suppose to be another draft test session at 6pm (not sure which time zone but probably est) and Jeff Gluck is suppose to periscope.

    Good
    The leader was not able to pull away and get a 2-3 second lead.
    There was plenty of passing on the top and bottom.
    There was plenty of passing within the second and third groups of cars.

    Bad
    While thee was plenty of passing it wasn’t up front, today it appeared to still be difficult to pass for the lead.

    Effects on DFS
    Based on what I saw today I foresee plenty of place diff changes between positions 6-30 which means each lap you will see even more changing of your current standings within DFS.

    I feel we will see more accidents due to the cars being closer more often and passing more often.

    Overall I was pleased as I enjoy the passing, just hope they can incorporate more of it at the front. Again, remember this is a small sample size.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    DK has posted the first nascar contest for the Daytona 500. $10 $750k with 100k to first. Nice contest as you don’t necessarily have to place first to get a good pay out, much more flat payout with a nice payout for the win!

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Just finished watching practice draft #3, hope to watch #2 later. This time the cars started like a normal race. The racing was very competitive and exciting. Several times three wide and a couple four wide, yes four wide! Cars started in back able to get up front. Once again, only issue was passing leader. Leader never pulled away by more than 4-5 car lengths. Couple times got close but couldn’t pull it off until end of run. Again, small sample size but once they get 36-40 cars on track racing will be entertaining. I expect multiple crashes during races. Also won’t be surprised if they come up with a rule about passing below yellow line like they have at Daytona and Dega….should be a fun season.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Finished watching practice #2. Similar to practice 1 and 3. Keselowski and Ky Busch started in back and made it up to the top 2-3 by end. Bubba Wallace started 3 or 4 but led majority. This tells me that almost any car in the field that can get to the front can win. Other thing I was looking at was Cody Ware, he is driving for bottom tier team. Wanted to see if he could hang with draft if he could move up. Answer today was no, he started fifth row and was in back after 2-3 laps. Could have just been his car as he blew up around lap five. Looks like the bottom 6-8 teams will only make positive position based on attrition which was similar to last year.

    Quick note, watch Keselowski, Logano, Blaney and Menard early this year. Kes was in top 1-3 all day while leading a bunch. Menard near front. Penske has been very good at restrictor plate races in past and since many of the races will race similar to restrictor plate they could start season better than others.

  • Vandyball27

    • 736

      RG Overall Ranking

    Really love this gpp from dk. I hope they can at least do a little better on a weekly basis with the prize pools.

  • dbullsfan

    I got to watch a little bit of session 3 and some highlights of the other 2. Pretty much agree with Coop. My initial reaction is cash will be treated much like plate races just loading up on guys in the back and raising your floor where gpp will be 1-2 doms with 4-5 PD guys but the doms will be more of a crap shoot as anyone with a strong car who gets out front will lead a big chunk of laps so MME will have a big edge over those who can only enter 1-3 lineups. I hope DK realizes this and makes a strong push on the mini max contest as I think they could/should be extremely popular.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @dbullsfan said...

    I got to watch a little bit of session 3 and some highlights of the other 2. Pretty much agree with Coop. My initial reaction is cash will be treated much like plate races just loading up on guys in the back and raising your floor where gpp will be 1-2 doms with 4-5 PD guys but the doms will be more of a crap shoot as anyone with a strong car who gets out front will lead a big chunk of laps so MME will have a big edge over those who can only enter 1-3 lineups. I hope DK realizes this and makes a strong push on the mini max contest as I think they could/should be extremely popular.

    So many questions still to be answered with this package…

    How will it affect tires? The wear, two tires more of an option now?
    How much slower will you be two tires vs four? Perhaps not a big diff now?
    How does the reduce in HP affect gas mileage?

    Then you have the strategy aspect. Will it be beneficial to be off cycle pit stops? Will it benefit to stay out when others pit? Track position, especially being the leader, appears to be even more important so you could see several more drivers attempt a strategy plan that allows them to be the leader.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    More things to consider….depending upon the package being used for the race, some practices will become meaningless since they will basically be drafting. Knowing which races to pay attention to practice speeds and which to ignore will become an advantage.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Watched the final two practice sessions in Las Vegas today. In the first session today we saw three lead change passes. Unfortunately, between both sessions we saw the majority of the laps become single line racing with little passing. The cars got strung out today with a lead pack of 3-4, then two cars running together, followed by a single car, then two cars, etc…yesterday during all three sessions we saw 3-4 groups of four sometimes five cars.

  • Chitownkiller

    In reference to DK not posting contests (other than reserving) before the superbowl was over. I wouldn’t say that its weak. They don’t yet know the full entry list of who will be competing.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    NASCAR announced some changes today….

    Qualifying will be three rounds, 10 minutes, 10 minutes and 5 minutes. Will be group qualifying minus Daytona and Dega.

    They said penalties for pre race inspection will be more harsh this year but no mention of what.

    This one could be big! In the past nascar has done post race inspection on Wednesday’s were they take the winner, second place and a random car. Last year we saw a few instances were the winning car was docked points etc on Wednesday. This year the post race inspection will take place at the track after the race! No mention if they will be inspecting all cars or similar to what they have done in past. If you receive a grade three penalty you lose everything you earned for the race. Not sure what qualifies as a grade three penalty. That leaves the question, will DK wait for this post race inspection to be complete before scoring is official? If so, could lead to some major shake up in standings. The inspection process is suppose to take up to 90 minutes.

    Edit: found an article that does say nascar will inspect first and second place and the random car will likely be the third place car…..https://nascar.nbcsports.com/2019/02/04/nascar-will-disqualify-winners-for-failing-post-race-inspection-at-track/

    Also…if DK were to adapt to this change and wait for the official results after inspection it would most likely only affect place position points…nascar doesn’t care about laps led and fastest laps, just a stat, and most likely would not change who was leading the lap or who was fastest lap for the laps that would be taken away from the winner.

    Edit edit: also if DK adopts this and laps led and fastest laps are still counted by the winner, if the winner was to fail it might not be as detrimental as originally thought. If the winner was dominant they most likely outscored the second place car by enough points to still potentially have the most points. Will depend upon were they started, and how dominant.

  • dbullsfan

    so if someone fails will it be like they never raced or finished dead last? this will be big for PD, etc… of course if you have someone that gets a 0 or negative it will still suck…….Overall as a DFS player I kind of hope DK doesn’t let the post race inspection affect the scoring and DK sticks with whomever finishes 1st. It is a variable we can not control, as DFS players we can only go off of our knowledge, numbers, and eye ball test from practice and such. If I think that Kyle Larson has a fast car and a track he is good at, decide to go overweight on him and he dominates I’d hate to lose because he cheated something we could have known absolutely nothing about. I get the argument that maybe he wouldn’t have been as good but for us we can only believe what we see and what the numbers say.

  • dbullsfan

    First action on the track today, Clash practiced ended about 45 minutes ago and first 500 practice in about 10 minutes. Pretty eventful opening practice for the Clash, 4 car wreck with Hamlin, Newman, Chase, and Harvick. Chase and Hamlin will go to backup cars while the other 2 will still use their primary. Hamlin/Chase will start at the rear but still be scored from the qualifying spot they draw tonight. Logano had the fastest speed and looked really good/agressive in the draft. Jimmie Johnson and Austin Dillon were 2/3 in fastest laps.

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Anyone playing the Clash today?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @atfrost said...

    Anyone playing the Clash today?

    Yes

  • atfrost

    • Blogger of the Month

    Always feels wrong to leave money on the table, but every lineup i like has over a grand left haha

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Hell yes. Awesome to have nascar back!

  • smokeyca14

    Yes, my favorite dfs sport. Because its all luck….

  • ttucowboy84

    • 387

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #50

      RG Tiered Ranking

    @atfrost said...

    Anyone playing the Clash today?

    Yep, great to have NASCAR back!

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