NASCAR FORUM

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  • gje627

    Noticed Draftkings posted a handful of Daytona 500 contests today …

    Wow !!! In the $10 America’s Race contest, the prize for 1st is $150,000 !!!

    Is this the largest 1st place prize in NASCAR fantasy history? … Yes, granted, “history” is only five years here, but still … pretty nice chunk-of-change for a “niche” fantasy sport !!!

    Nonetheless, before the “official” Datyona 500 thread is posted (and, of course even before that, the thread for the “Busch Clash”, running one week from this upcoming Thursday) … just curious?

    Does anyone have any profound thoughts, unique insight, or TMZ-worthy information regarding what we should expect in the upcoming season?

    How about some bold predictions?

    While we still have the same god-awful car and rules package as 2019 … with a minor improvement to the rules for short tracks … (at least it’s the final year of both) … there’s a lot of changes to be excited about in the driver ranks (not including the shocking retirement of Cole Pearn .. but damn !!! Did you see his new gig? … My hero !!!)…. Oops, back to drivers, two retirements, one likely retirement – medical, two mediocre Cup series regulars moving from good/great teams/equipment to marginal/sub-par teams/equipment, five driver changes in the backmarker ranks, four rookie-of-the-year candidates (large class … see the fate of last year’s “default” ROTY) and the swan-song of the most vanilla NASCAR champion of all all-time, Jimmie Johnson.

    Anyways, would love to hear everyone’s expectations for NASCAR 2020 !!!

    P.S: Please, everyone, refrain from replying all at once. It would be a shame if the RG chapter of “NASCAR Nation” overwhelmed and crashed the RG servers. :)

  • gje627

    Don’t mind me … Just dropped in to wipe away the dust and clear-out the cobwebs … so I’ll be out of your hair in no time !!!

    I tell you what-not (redneck slang … please, at least somebody tell me you know who Hank Hill is?) … there’s nothing worse than an unused, dusty-old thread for buildup of dirt and debris.

    Cough-Cough-Bump-Bump-Cough-Cough. :)

    Okay, one and only covert bump.

    If nobody’s interested, I’ll quit. :(

  • marker0357

    Here’s hoping that DK decides to have some achievement bonuses for Nascar. I’m thinking something like:

    25k crowns 23/26 race entries prior to playoffs ($1) – all drivers finishing race – all drivers in top 20 – driver finishing in top 10 in a race with salary under xxx

    ……

  • livetorace17

    I don’t play DK for many reasons, so I’m hoping FD has some decent contests this year. Last season it was hit or miss on size and payout structure.

  • gvn2fly1421

    @livetorace17 said...

    I don’t play DK for many reasons, so I’m hoping FD has some decent contests this year. Last season it was hit or miss on size and payout structure.

    When football started back, the tournaments really took a nose dive. I would not mind seeing FD add the Busch series (or whatever the name is now) and trucks.

    @gje627, I never really had anything to add last year but I enjoyed reading through the threads and found them helpful… Thanks for starting it up this year!

  • livetorace17

    @gvn2fly1421 said...

    When football started back, the tournaments really took a nose dive. I would not mind seeing FD add the Busch series (or whatever the name is now) and trucks.

    YES! I usually watch all three races each weekend and I feel there is an edge to be had in xfinity and trucks, I just wish FD would add contests. FDRep, can you add NASCAR Xfinity and Trucks contests this year!?

  • gje627

    Agree with the DK and FD comments above.

    Personally, I feel like FD’s NASCAR product is pretty inferior to DK’s and is based too much on finishing position and participation points (laps completed); thus, making it very difficult for contestants to apply any level of skill in distinguishing good drivers from bad ones and using multiple metrics for lineup construction decisions. In my estimation, anyways, the substantial majority of making a good lineup on FD simply involves grouping together as many as the high finish position drivers in a lineup as possible.

    Also, hey @gvn2fly1421 !!!

    Thanks for your kind words. :)

  • ajs1281

    This is going to be such an interesting year because it is going to go one of two paths and I feel like we will know by Bristol 1 which way it is going to shake out.

    Are the dominant teams from last year going to continue to dominate as other teams begin to put resources into the 2021 package. If so does that mean RCR, Roush and Ganassi (even if they are better than other 2) level teams try to steal wins with strategy which means they are going to be your boom and bust plays every week while mixing in the usual dominators
    OR
    Does it swing to the other extreme and once a team has its playoff clinching win will they put more resources into 2021 meaning we could be looking at more random winners and higher placements because the 18 and 4 are looking towards 2021 and the 2020 playoff races only.
    I lean towards scenario 1 where those mid level teams finish either top 10 or outside of 25 depending on how the gambles go, and that could bring alot of value in the builds on weeks they hit. If the gambling scenario happens it will also put laps led up for grabs as unexpected lap leaders could rip off decent laps led from being off sequence. Both scenarios have alot of volatility, I just wonder whether it will be concentrated in the 7-8k range or above 9500.

    I also really hope they get the impound inspections cleaned up this year because that would take alot of the chaos out of this year from the DFS perspective when you “have” to play those who fail vs others in similar tiers.

  • gje627

    @ajs1281 said...

    This is going to be such an interesting year because it is going to go one of two paths and I feel like we will know by Bristol 1 which way it is going to shake out.

    Are the dominant teams from last year going to continue to dominate as other teams begin to put resources into the 2021 package. If so does that mean RCR, Roush and Ganassi (even if they are better than other 2) level teams try to steal wins with strategy which means they are going to be your boom and bust plays every week while mixing in the usual dominators
    OR
    Does it swing to the other extreme and once a team has its playoff clinching win will they put more resources into 2021 meaning we could be looking at more random winners and higher placements because the 18 and 4 are looking towards 2021 and the 2020 playoff races only.
    I lean towards scenario 1 where those mid level teams finish either top 10 or outside of 25 depending on how the gambles go, and that could bring alot of value in the builds on weeks they hit. If the gambling scenario happens it will also put laps led up for grabs as unexpected lap leaders could rip off decent laps led from being off sequence. Both scenarios have alot of volatility, I just wonder whether it will be concentrated in the 7-8k range or above 9500.

    I also really hope they get the impound inspections cleaned up this year because that would take alot of the chaos out of this year from the DFS perspective when you “have” to play those who fail vs others in similar tiers.

    Excellent analysis and summary … so thank you !!! :)

    Regarding your last paragraph, it sounds like there will be more consistency this season with impound versus non-impound races (and overall race week protocol) for each race in 2020. For fantasy purposes, it might be a bummer as NASCAR plans to have more impound races in 2020

    As far as middling teams making statements, I also agree.

    I have a ton of new data (speed, pit-road, restart, crashes not resulting in DNFs … each on multi-variate levels) … and taken together with other variables, and after doing a ton of analysis, a lot of results are absolutely fascinating.

    Just one simple example …

    While race speed and/or practice speed kills, it doesn’t always make for a “killer” fantasy driver/dominator. In fact, it is only marginally important at most tracks (should note … this conclusion is not based on simple “fast laps” loop data).

    For supporting data (not necessarily full-proof but excellent anecdotal evidence), see Kevin Harvick in 2019.

    The conclusion? Where the large teams, particularly Stewart-Haas and JGR, seem to have the market cornered on speed, other identifiable race metrics generally play a more important role in driver/success (or failure).

  • gje627

    Getting closer to the Big Show !!!

    Draftkings has posted the Busch Clash Contests so we’re almost there. Pretty nice prize pools, though with only 18 drivers for 6 spots, and once starting positions are set, seems like a ton of duplicate ties for first will be the rule and not the exception.

    A little surprised the GPP big contest is 150 max-entry ….

    Granted, there are a lot more possible lineups at or under the $50K salary ceiling than 150 lineups ….

    Okay, I admit I ran all lineups at or under the $50K salary ceiling …. and there are ….17,638 possible lineups … but “realistically” after starting positions are set? …. There won’t be that many “realistic” lineups.

    Anyways, if anybody wants all possible lineups I can post a link to my Google Drive so you can filter drivers at your leisure.

    Just say something.

    Also …

    Liberating all my data/analysis this year (kind of, mostly, okay liberating is a strong word … “democratizing” maybe … but it will be available)… so if you need any any particular analysis (not data, I have it all) post here (no PMs please). Would love to hear what everyone wants in analysis they can’t find elsewhere !!!

    Peace Out :) !!!

    Ooops … P.S.: FanDuel is doing what FanDuel does on NASCAR … nothing !!! … At least nothing posted yet … but yeah, their contests are really nothing but an afterthought after the late arrivers have seen that DK contests full … So ….

  • Stangs13

    Gje,

    Your the man. I love reading your writing and wish I had half the brain you have at least as far as analytics :). Are there any trends or lineup rules you use for the Clash?

  • gvn2fly1421

    Any idea how the field is set for the Busch Clash? Could not find anything on nascar dot com, only that there is a final practice on Saturday morning…

  • gje627

    Drivers make the field if they meet a minimum of one of the following criteria:

    — 2019 Pole Award winners
    — Past Clash winners who also competed full-time in 2019
    — Past Daytona 500 winners who also competed full-time in 2019
    — Past Daytona 500 pole winners who also competed full-time in 2019
    — 2019 Cup Series playoff qualifiers

    A random drawing sets starting positions.

    EDIT: This is a reply to @gvn2fly1421. Forgot to quote your post.

  • gvn2fly1421

    @gje627 said...

    Drivers make the field if they meet a minimum of one of the following criteria:

    — 2019 Pole Award winners
    — Past Clash winners who also competed full-time in 2019
    — Past Daytona 500 winners who also competed full-time in 2019
    — Past Daytona 500 pole winners who also competed full-time in 2019
    — 2019 Cup Series playoff qualifiers

    A random drawing sets starting positions.

    Thanks gje627!!

  • gje627

    @Stangs13 said...

    Gje,

    Your the man. I love reading your writing and wish I had half the brain you have at least as far as analytics :). Are there any trends or lineup rules you use for the Clash?

    Honestly, this year with the unusually small field, I will play sparingly, if at all.

    Other than that squeeze out points where you can.

    With only 75 total laps and this being a drafting track (no longer a plate track) Super Speedway, dominator points are really tough to predict because really anyone can lead a little (or a lot) and fast laps will be all over the board. With that said, place differential is pretty limited too, because there are so few drivers in the race (i.e., the most PD FPts a driver can earn is 17 on DK and 8.5 on FD … if FD even plans to have contests). Even with that said, just to squeeze out some fantasy points playing most drivers in the rear, is probably preferable, and then considering a driver who will likely lead a lot of laps at the beginning of the race (when most of the cars may decide to just “draft” around the track until the last several laps of the race) might be the best strategy.

    Other than that, finishing position … of course … will be critical. But, since this is an exhibition (gimmick?) race, the problem with trying to predict finish order is that from a driver perspective winning is everything and after that no one cares where they finish … (no playoff points, etc. awarded). As such, even more than a normal Daytona (or Talladega) race, there are likely to be a very high number of wrecks. Last year 9 of 20 drivers were DNF-crash and though I can’t remember the race last year (except that is was rain-shortened), I imagine at least a handful of other cars were at least somewhat disabled. Nonetheless, in an exhibition race, trying to predict which drivers are most likely to crash, and which won’t … is a fool’s errand.

  • gje627

    Oh, sorry, didn’t answer the “trends” part of the question.

    Honestly? I think I have pretty much every data element available for NASCAR, even obscure stuff, but for whatever reason I don’t maintain exhibition race data … I guess for probably the same reason I don’t keep NFL, NBA preseason data …. So I can’t help you out there (sorry).

    If you or anyone else wants to do a little snooping in the numbers, exhibition race data is available on racing-reference, but it’s kind of hidden ….

    So here’s the link if you’re interested (the Clash is at the very bottom) … Racing Reference Exhibition Races

    EDIT: Actually, just clicked a few links, there’s really not much there, mostly finishing position, etc. Not even loop data for most (maybe all?) … races (I didn’t click all the links).

  • gje627

    Busch Clash practice on FS1 right now (Saturday, 9:30 am MT) … if anyone’s interested ….

  • gje627

    Nice ARCA debut for Hailie Deegan …. What a talent ….

    Remember very early last year, some wise old sage called her out as someone to keep an eye on.

    Anyone recall who that was. :)

    While I’ve never hesitated to criticize NASCAR leadership in the past, I must give them kudos for their commitment to promoting diversity in the sport.

  • siddom

    how much $$ are we leaving on the table for the Busch Clash?

  • BigRay

    In my main line up, i left $0. I picked the 6 drivers i like the best and had $0 remaining…so karma..i guess. I then made a contrarian lineup to that with 6 people i don’t like here. That line up has about $5000 left on the table..

  • siddom

    @BigRay said...

    In my main line up, i left $0. I picked the 6 drivers i like the best and had $0 remaining…so karma..i guess. I then made a contrarian lineup to that with 6 people i don’t like here. That line up has about $5000 left on the table..

    nice, I’ve got 2600 left on the table with every driver in the back or midfield.

  • elmore0631

    Anyone like Erik Jones?

  • BigRay

    @elmore0631 said...

    Anyone like Erik Jones?

    yes. He won the race

  • BigRay

    The line up with $5000 left won 5x the money. Thank you Denny Hamlin for pushing Jones to the win.

  • elmore0631

    @BigRay said...

    yes. He won the race

    Yes, yes… what a crazy finish.

    Thank you Denny Hamlin

  • gje627

    Fun Busch Clash … though, thank God I don’t play gimmick races.

    Favor?

    Could somebody start a new thread for the Daytona 500?

    This one has exhausted it’s utility (my bad) … and I have a new home base … numbers galore !!! :)

    Thanks Somebody !!! ???

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