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  • gje627

    FYI: In the event anyone is prepping for the upcoming NASCAR season and was not already in the know … for 2021 DK made a few fantasy scoring changes for the upcoming season. The first changes fastest lap scoring from 0.50 to 0.45 for each fastest lap a driver records and the second establishes a new scoring schedule for driver finish position (see table below). Fantasy scoring for place differential and laps led remains the same as prior years.

    Not really sure why DK made these changes (would love to hear from DK on this BTW …) but obviously since NASCAR scoring is very close among and between lineups, even these seemingly minor changes will be meaningful.

    —-

    NASCAR DK 2021 FINISH POSITION FANTASY POINTS RULE CHANGE COMPARISON

    __

    FINISH POSITION 2021 2015 – 2020 DIFFERENCE
    ———————————— ————————— ————————— —————————
    1 45 46 1
    2 42 42 0
    3 41 41 0
    4 40 40 0
    5 39 39 0
    6 38 38 0
    7 37 37 0
    8 36 36 0
    9 35 35 0
    10 34 34 0
    11 32 33 1
    12 31 32 1
    13 30 31 1
    14 29 30 1
    15 28 29 1
    16 27 28 1
    17 26 27 1
    18 25 26 1
    19 24 25 1
    20 23 24 1
    21 21 23 2
    22 20 22 2
    23 19 21 2
    24 18 20 2
    25 17 19 2
    26 16 18 2
    27 15 17 2
    28 14 16 2
    29 13 15 2
    30 12 14 2
    31 10 13 3
    32 9 12 3
    33 8 11 3
    34 7 10 3
    35 6 9 3
    36 5 8 3
    37 4 7 3
    38 3 6 3
    39 2 5 3
    40 1 4 3

    ____

  • ifthethunder

    Pretty sure Skynet would be more forthcoming about its algorithms than D.K.
    ~

  • gje627

    Per my open question to DK above, my only assumption for why DK may have changed scoring for this year may be to force (encourage) contestants to roster more backmarker drivers in their lineups as last year no matter how low salaries were for drivers like Timmy Hill, BJ McCleod, etc … these drivers rarely if ever appeared in an optimal lineup …. Screwed-up the original table … corrected now so this makes zero sense.

    For those interested (likely nobody …), below are summary numbers for the number of appearance drivers made in optimal lineups for all historical and last year only, Cup contests on DK (first contest held on 05/24/2015) and FD (first contest held on 04/29/2018). Please note occassionally, multiple lineups tie for optimal (never more than three). Therefore, in instances of ties, a driver may be double- or triple-counted for a single contest if he/she appeared on more than one optimal lineup in a specific race.

    NOTE: The table below only includes NASCAR Cup “regular” season races and not exhibition races (Busch Clash, Daytona Duels, All-Star Race) ….

    Likely this weekend I will be running all prior DK contests under the new scoring rules to see how much changes between old and new scoring. If I find anything interesting, I’ll post ….
    ——-

    HISTORICAL DK & FD NASCAR CUP CONTEST OPTIMAL LINEUP APPEARANCES BY DRIVER

    __

    NAME DK 2015 – 2020 FD 2018 – 2020 DK 2020 ONLY FD 2020 ONLY
    ———————————— ————————- ————————- ————————- ————————-
    Martin Truex Jr. 74 28 10 8
    Kevin Harvick 62 27 15 12
    Kyle Busch 60 22 4 7
    Denny Hamlin 52 29 13 14
    Kyle Larson 49 13 0 0
    Ryan Blaney 45 25 14 12
    Joey Logano 42 22 8 9
    Aric Almirola 41 16 9 7
    Brad Keselowski 41 20 4 6
    Chase Elliott 39 19 9 8
    Erik Jones 39 29 13 9
    Austin Dillon 37 18 7 9
    Jimmie Johnson 36 13 4 7
    Ty Dillon 36 6 12 3
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 35 12 11 5
    Ryan Newman 34 12 1 0
    Matt Kenseth 33 5 5 3
    Clint Bowyer 32 18 2 4
    Chris Buescher 31 13 7 5
    Michael McDowell 29 6 8 3
    Matt DiBenedetto 27 17 6 7
    Alex Bowman 24 15 8 4
    David Ragan 24 7 1 1
    William Byron 23 13 5 4
    Daniel Suarez 22 11 2 0
    Kurt Busch 22 20 3 4
    AJ Allmendinger 21 3 0 0
    Jamie McMurray 20 5 0 0
    Dale Earnhardt Jr. 19 0 0 0
    Paul Menard 18 9 0 0
    Landon Cassill 17 0 0 0
    Bubba Wallace 16 11 7 7
    Trevor Bayne 16 0 0 0
    Corey Lajoie 15 5 3 2
    Cole Whitt 14 0 0 0
    Kasey Kahne 13 2 0 0
    Danica Patrick 12 0 0 0
    Carl Edwards 10 0 0 0
    Cole Custer 10 9 10 9
    Ryan Preece 9 5 5 2
    Tyler Reddick 9 7 8 6
    Christopher Bell 8 9 8 9
    Greg Biffle 8 0 0 0
    Brendan Gaughan 6 3 2 2
    Casey Mears 6 0 0 0
    Daniel Hemric 6 4 0 0
    John H. Nemechek 6 2 5 2
    Regan Smith 6 1 0 0
    Justin Allgaier 5 0 0 0
    Ross Chastain 5 1 1 0
    Brian Scott 4 0 0 0
    JJ Yeley 4 1 0 0
    Sam Hornish Jr. 4 0 0 0
    Tony Stewart 4 0 0 0
    Brennan Poole 3 0 3 0
    Jeff Gordon 3 0 0 0
    Justin Haley 3 1 1 0
    Matt Tifft 3 1 0 0
    Michael Waltrip 3 0 0 0
    Blake Jones 2 0 0 0
    David Gilliland 2 0 0 0
    Michael Annett 2 0 0 0
    Andy Seuss 1 0 0 0
    Brett Moffitt 1 0 0 0
    Cody Ware 1 0 0 0
    Gray Gaulding 1 0 0 0
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 1 0 0 0
    Josh Wise 1 0 0 0
    Quin Houff 1 0 0 0

    ________

    Drivers in Cup races during this period who have never made an optimal lineup on either DK or FD. Alex Kennedy, Alon Day, Austin Theriault, Bayley Currey, Billy Johnson, BJ McLeod, Bobby Labonte, Boris Said, Brian Vickers, Carl Long, Chad Finchum, Chris Cook, D.J. Kennington, David Starr, Derek White, Derrike Cope, Drew Herring, Dylan Lupton, Eddie MacDonald, Elliott Sadler, Garrett Smithley, Gary Klutt, Harrison Rhodes, Hermie Sadler, James Davison, Jeb Burton, Jesse Little, Joe Nemechek, Joey Gase, Josh Bilicki, Justin Marks, Kaz Grala, Kevin O’Connell, Kyle Fowler, Kyle Weatherman, Mark Thompson, Matt Crafton, Mike Bliss, Parker Kligerman, Patrick Carpentier, Ray Black Jr., Reed Sorenson, Robert Richardson Jr., Ryan Ellis, Ryan Reed, Ryan Sieg, Spencer Boyd, Spencer Gallagher, Stanton Barrett, Stephen Leicht, T.J. Bell, Tanner Berryhill, Timmy Hill, Timothy Peters, Tommy Regan, Tomy Drissi, Travis Kvapil, Will Kimmel III.

  • Pandamonious

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    @gje627 said...

    Per my open question to DK above, my only assumption for why DK may have changed scoring for this year may be to force (encourage) contestants to roster more backmarker drivers in their lineups as last year no matter how low salaries were for drivers like Timmy Hill, BJ McCleod, etc … these drivers rarely if ever appeared in an optimal lineup

    I’m probably not comprehending something, but by lowering scores for those finishing further back, it seems the opposite? The value on a guy who started 37th and finished 27th, is less now, right?

    I suppose I could see how maybe you would be forced into playing a back marker, because there seems to be a small premium, more so than before on top 10 finishers. Seems almost Fanduel-ish. I guess we’ll see how, if at all they change pricing to reflect the scoring changes.

  • gje627

    @Pandamonious said...

    I’m probably not comprehending something

    Your comprehension is great …. My table-making sucks.

    In the original I transposed column headings.

    Once I corrected the table my “guess-timation” made no sense.

    My Bad.

  • depalma13

    They really need to add bonus points for stage finishes. That would make the game far more interesting.

  • jki7p6

    Thanks. Wouldnt have caught this.

  • Stangs13

    A bit off topic but Keslowski only being in the optimal four times last year is shocking.

  • gje627

    @Stangs13 said...

    A bit off topic but Keslowski only being in the optimal four times last year is shocking.

    Under old DK scoring, here are the races Keselowski was in the optimal:

    YR-RACE TRACK DATE FINISH DK FPTS SALARY
    —————— ————————————————— —————— ———— —————- —————
    2020-09 Bristol Motor Speedway 05/31/2020 1 90.75 9100
    2020-20 New Hampshire Motor Speedway 08/2/2020 1 122.00 9500
    2020-21 Michigan International Speedway 08/8/2020 2 51.00 10100
    2020-28 Richmond International Raceway 09/12/2020 1 124.00 10100

    _____

    Of note, “Bad Brad” did win the Coca-Cola 600 in Charlotte on 05/24/2020, but failed to make the optimal due to salary constraints where other expensive drivers had more dominator points and there was reasonable value that also performed well that day. In that race, the optimal DK lineup was Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Cole Custer, and Michael McDowell (393.75 FPTs, 49800 DK Salary). Essentially, Chase Elliott kept Brad off the optimal by scoring 2.75 more fantasy points at a salary that was $600 less than Brad’s salary.

    Finally, Keselowski did have a handful of other races where he came close but again was kept off the optimal due to salary constraints.

  • gje627

    1/2

    Per above, I ran a comparison between DK NASCAR scoring under old scoring and new 2021 scoring …. A little suprised by how the numbers turned out ….

    Also, in advance, my apologies that both posts are so long …..

    ____

    205 — total historical DK Cup contests.

    185 — total historical DK Cup contests where the optimal lineup(s) was identical under 2015 to 2020 scoring and the new 2021 scoring. This means that in 90.24% of all historical contests, the same lineup was optimal under both old and new DK scoring rules.

    20 — total historical DK Cup contests where the optimal lineup(s) was different under 2015 to 2020 scoring and the new 2021 scoring. This means that in 9.76% of all historical contests, the same lineup was not the same under old and new DK scoring rules.

    10 — total historical contests where the optimal lineup included at least one tie under the 2015 to 2020 DK scoring system. For ease of understanding, only one lineup comparison and not all tied lineups are included in the table. Races where with ties are noted in the column called “TIE”.

    4 — total historical contests where the optimal lineup included at least one tie under the 2021 DK scoring system. After a quick “eyeballing” it looks like these are all from the same contests as the 10 lineups referred to in the previous point.

    NOTE 1: Hopefully it’s self-explanatory, but the last column in the table indcates whether the optimal lineup(s) per race were the same or different under the two scoring systems being compared in this analysis.

    NOTE 2: Technically, DK scoring was not the same for the totality of 2015 to 2020. During either most or all of 2015, DK included scoring for “pass differential” (not to be confused with place differential). Regardless, the scoring used in this analysis does not include scoring for pass differential in any year.

    NOTE 3: As always, any errors or omissions are mine and mine only. If you find something amiss in either the explanation or the table itself, please feel free to comment with your correction.

  • gje627

    2/2

    NOTE: There are 7 columns below. If you can’t see all 7, please zoom-out.
    _____

    DK NASCAR OPTIMAL LINEUP FANTASY SCORING COMPARISONCUP ONLY

    ___

    TRACK YR RACE TIE PRE 2021 FPTS 2021 FPTS FPTS DIFF COMPARED
    ————————————————— ————- ———— ———— ———— —————- —————-
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2015-12 NO 282.75 272.15 10.60 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2015-13 NO 326.25 318.80 7.45 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2015-14 NO 266.25 257.35 8.90 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2015-15 NO 271.00 266.80 4.20 SAME
    Sonoma Raceway 2015-16 NO 266.50 261.15 5.35 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2015-17 NO 265.00 257.30 7.70 SAME
    Kentucky Speedway 2015-18 NO 293.75 282.85 10.90 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2015-19 NO 291.75 282.70 9.05 SAME
    Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2015-20 NO 248.75 235.95 12.80 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2015-21 NO 321.00 318.20 2.80 SAME
    Watkins Glen International 2015-22 NO 317.50 314.05 3.45 DIFF
    Michigan International Speedway 2015-23 NO 390.50 381.55 8.95 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2015-24 NO 428.50 416.50 12.00 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2015-25 NO 380.75 369.85 10.90 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2015-26 NO 510.00 495.15 14.85 SAME
    Chicagoland Speedway 2015-27 NO 358.25 349.50 8.75 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2015-28 NO 417.50 404.05 13.45 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2015-29 NO 515.00 503.75 11.25 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2015-30 NO 401.50 393.10 8.40 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2015-31 NO 380.75 368.85 11.90 DIFF
    Talladega Superspeedway 2015-32 NO 361.50 357.95 3.55 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2015-33 NO 353.75 344.00 9.75 DIFF
    Texas Motor Speedway 2015-34 NO 423.50 413.60 9.90 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2015-35 NO 344.00 337.15 6.85 SAME
    Homestead-Miami Speedway 2015-36 NO 360.25 348.45 11.80 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2016-01 NO 388.50 382.70 5.80 SAME
    Atlanta Motor Speedway 2016-02 NO 373.25 364.70 8.55 DIFF
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2016-03 NO 372.50 366.30 6.20 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2016-04 YES 448.50 436.90 11.60 SAME
    Auto Club Speedway 2016-05 NO 372.25 365.40 6.85 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2016-06 NO 531.00 515.70 15.30 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2016-07 NO 397.25 384.80 12.45 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2016-08 NO 496.25 488.65 7.60 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2016-09 NO 395.50 378.85 16.65 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2016-10 NO 373.00 368.80 4.20 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2016-11 NO 399.75 388.30 11.45 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2016-12 NO 422.75 413.10 9.65 DIFF
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2016-13 NO 437.75 423.10 14.65 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2016-14 YES 319.00 312.85 6.15 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2016-15 NO 377.50 368.85 8.65 SAME
    Sonoma Raceway 2016-16 NO 306.25 302.40 3.85 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2016-17 NO 363.75 359.90 3.85 SAME
    Kentucky Speedway 2016-18 NO 378.75 369.30 9.45 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2016-19 NO 419.00 408.45 10.55 SAME
    Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2016-20 NO 345.25 340.25 5.00 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2016-21 NO 355.75 352.80 2.95 SAME
    Watkins Glen International 2016-22 NO 316.00 312.65 3.35 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2016-23 NO 429.50 418.95 10.55 DIFF
    Michigan International Speedway 2016-24 NO 350.75 343.25 7.50 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2016-25 NO 407.75 398.55 9.20 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2016-26 NO 465.75 453.60 12.15 SAME
    Chicagoland Speedway 2016-27 NO 404.25 394.25 10.00 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2016-28 NO 368.00 357.15 10.85 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2016-29 NO 464.25 448.30 15.95 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2016-30 YES 397.75 390.40 7.35 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2016-31 NO 372.75 360.75 12.00 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2016-32 NO 361.25 359.65 1.60 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2016-33 NO 433.75 421.55 12.20 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2016-34 NO 389.50 379.95 9.55 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2016-35 NO 373.50 367.45 6.05 SAME
    Homestead-Miami Speedway 2016-36 NO 391.00 384.95 6.05 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2017-01 NO 420.25 416.90 3.35 SAME
    Atlanta Motor Speedway 2017-02 NO 411.25 402.65 8.60 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2017-03 NO 382.00 369.10 12.90 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2017-04 NO 415.50 406.70 8.80 SAME
    Auto Club Speedway 2017-05 NO 372.25 365.55 6.70 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2017-06 NO 531.50 517.60 13.90 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2017-07 NO 422.50 409.80 12.70 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2017-08 YES 456.25 443.00 13.25 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2017-09 NO 435.50 422.80 12.70 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2017-10 NO 353.75 352.95 0.80 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2017-11 NO 413.00 402.65 10.35 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2017-12 NO 438.00 426.25 11.75 DIFF
    Dover International Speedway 2017-13 NO 460.50 450.05 10.45 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2017-14 NO 331.75 325.20 6.55 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2017-15 NO 347.00 338.35 8.65 SAME
    Sonoma Raceway 2017-16 NO 319.00 314.80 4.20 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2017-17 NO 372.75 369.40 3.35 SAME
    Kentucky Speedway 2017-18 NO 417.50 405.25 12.25 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2017-19 YES 413.50 402.55 10.95 SAME
    Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2017-20 NO 358.00 355.10 2.90 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2017-21 NO 309.75 301.70 8.05 DIFF
    Watkins Glen International 2017-22 NO 298.00 294.80 3.20 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2017-23 NO 379.50 374.25 5.25 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2017-24 NO 490.50 478.15 12.35 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2017-25 NO 378.75 366.30 12.45 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2017-26 NO 384.00 372.95 11.05 DIFF
    Chicagoland Speedway 2017-27 NO 349.00 338.90 10.10 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2017-28 NO 411.25 399.30 11.95 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2017-29 NO 403.50 394.45 9.05 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2017-30 NO 393.50 382.45 11.05 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2017-31 NO 370.75 368.30 2.45 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2017-32 NO 401.75 394.95 6.80 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2017-33 NO 462.25 446.95 15.30 DIFF
    Texas Motor Speedway 2017-34 NO 408.25 395.40 12.85 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2017-35 NO 370.00 362.80 7.20 SAME
    Homestead-Miami Speedway 2017-36 NO 391.00 379.55 11.45 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2018-01 NO 359.25 354.25 5.00 SAME
    Atlanta Motor Speedway 2018-02 NO 393.50 382.75 10.75 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2018-03 NO 388.00 379.70 8.30 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2018-04 NO 382.25 370.75 11.50 SAME
    Auto Club Speedway 2018-05 NO 355.50 345.75 9.75 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2018-06 NO 500.75 483.35 17.40 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2018-07 NO 465.50 455.05 10.45 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2018-08 NO 467.75 454.30 13.45 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2018-09 NO 388.75 381.05 7.70 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2018-10 NO 337.75 334.00 3.75 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2018-11 NO 421.25 408.75 12.50 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2018-12 NO 382.00 371.55 10.45 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2018-13 NO 462.00 448.30 13.70 DIFF
    Pocono Raceway 2018-14 NO 334.50 327.05 7.45 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2018-15 NO 322.00 317.55 4.45 SAME
    Sonoma Raceway 2018-16 NO 345.00 338.45 6.55 SAME
    Chicagoland Speedway 2018-17 NO 335.75 326.95 8.80 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2018-18 NO 398.25 395.70 2.55 SAME
    Kentucky Speedway 2018-19 NO 354.50 345.80 8.70 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2018-20 NO 382.75 371.75 11.00 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2018-21 NO 396.50 390.25 6.25 SAME
    Watkins Glen International 2018-22 NO 342.25 338.50 3.75 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2018-23 NO 344.75 336.70 8.05 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2018-24 NO 464.50 455.15 9.35 DIFF
    Darlington Raceway 2018-25 NO 407.50 398.55 8.95 DIFF
    Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2018-26 NO 331.75 328.35 3.40 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2018-27 NO 425.75 415.05 10.70 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2018-28 NO 400.25 390.15 10.10 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL 2018-29 YES 299.75 295.30 4.45 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2018-30 NO 415.00 405.20 9.80 DIFF
    Talladega Superspeedway 2018-31 NO 336.00 332.35 3.65 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2018-32 NO 344.00 336.90 7.10 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2018-33 NO 506.50 492.90 13.60 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2018-34 NO 372.25 361.45 10.80 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2018-35 NO 386.25 381.45 4.80 SAME
    Homestead-Miami Speedway 2018-36 NO 319.75 310.40 9.35 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2019-01 NO 410.25 407.55 2.70 SAME
    Atlanta Motor Speedway 2019-02 NO 382.25 373.10 9.15 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2019-03 NO 348.25 341.30 6.95 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2019-04 NO 407.75 396.45 11.30 SAME
    Auto Club Speedway 2019-05 NO 321.75 309.80 11.95 DIFF
    Martinsville Speedway 2019-06 YES 512.25 496.90 15.35 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2019-07 NO 368.00 361.65 6.35 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2019-08 YES 405.50 397.20 8.30 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2019-09 NO 402.50 395.00 7.50 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2019-10 NO 377.50 373.60 3.90 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2019-11 NO 435.75 422.65 13.10 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2019-12 NO 389.50 383.85 5.65 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2019-13 NO 422.50 411.80 10.70 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2019-14 NO 304.00 297.55 6.45 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2019-15 NO 333.50 329.35 4.15 SAME
    Sonoma Raceway 2019-16 NO 336.25 333.80 2.45 SAME
    Chicagoland Speedway 2019-17 NO 356.75 349.30 7.45 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2019-18 YES 375.25 372.45 2.80 SAME
    Kentucky Speedway 2019-19 NO 362.75 354.65 8.10 DIFF
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2019-20 NO 396.50 384.65 11.85 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2019-21 NO 358.50 355.00 3.50 SAME
    Watkins Glen International 2019-22 NO 316.00 311.00 5.00 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2019-23 NO 360.75 356.80 3.95 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2019-24 NO 424.25 412.25 12.00 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2019-25 NO 423.75 413.55 10.20 SAME
    Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2019-26 NO 378.75 374.05 4.70 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2019-27 NO 378.50 368.20 10.30 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2019-28 NO 429.75 417.85 11.90 DIFF
    Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL 2019-29 NO 320.00 314.05 5.95 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2019-30 NO 448.25 436.65 11.60 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2019-31 NO 383.50 379.90 3.60 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2019-32 NO 399.00 389.45 9.55 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2019-33 NO 533.50 517.80 15.70 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2019-34 NO 405.75 394.60 11.15 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2019-35 NO 366.50 351.85 14.65 SAME
    Homestead-Miami Speedway 2019-36 NO 377.75 368.45 9.30 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2020-01 NO 426.50 424.25 2.25 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2020-02 NO 377.00 373.80 3.20 SAME
    Auto Club Speedway 2020-03 NO 358.75 351.00 7.75 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2020-04 NO 372.00 361.90 10.10 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2020-05 NO 433.00 423.80 9.20 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2020-06 NO 326.00 321.05 4.95 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2020-07 NO 393.75 382.20 11.55 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway 2020-08 NO 371.25 366.00 5.25 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2020-09 NO 422.75 415.05 7.70 SAME
    Atlanta Motor Speedway 2020-10 NO 375.00 365.05 9.95 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2020-11 NO 466.50 453.75 12.75 SAME
    Homestead-Miami Speedway 2020-12 NO 432.75 425.50 7.25 DIFF
    Talladega Superspeedway 2020-13 NO 357.50 357.50 0.00 DIFF
    Pocono Raceway 2020-14 NO 366.00 361.70 4.30 SAME
    Pocono Raceway 2020-15 NO 365.50 360.55 4.95 SAME
    Indianapolis Motor Speedway 2020-16 YES 377.00 372.90 4.10 SAME
    Kentucky Speedway 2020-17 NO 407.00 400.20 6.80 DIFF
    Texas Motor Speedway 2020-18 NO 431.75 422.50 9.25 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2020-19 NO 368.25 361.15 7.10 SAME
    New Hampshire Motor Speedway 2020-20 NO 403.00 393.70 9.30 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2020-21 NO 315.25 307.60 7.65 SAME
    Michigan International Speedway 2020-22 NO 355.50 349.35 6.15 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway Rd 2020-23 NO 322.50 319.20 3.30 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2020-24 NO 387.75 376.80 10.95 SAME
    Dover International Speedway 2020-25 NO 430.00 419.15 10.85 SAME
    Daytona International Speedway 2020-26 NO 359.75 356.10 3.65 SAME
    Darlington Raceway 2020-27 NO 379.50 366.95 12.55 SAME
    Richmond International Raceway 2020-28 NO 406.50 393.95 12.55 SAME
    Bristol Motor Speedway 2020-29 NO 496.25 486.25 10.00 SAME
    Las Vegas Motor Speedway 2020-30 NO 371.25 366.05 5.20 SAME
    Talladega Superspeedway 2020-31 NO 373.00 370.50 2.50 SAME
    Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL 2020-32 NO 326.00 320.95 5.05 SAME
    Kansas Speedway 2020-33 NO 344.00 336.30 7.70 SAME
    Texas Motor Speedway 2020-34 NO 401.75 391.35 10.40 SAME
    Martinsville Speedway 2020-35 NO 429.00 417.20 11.80 SAME
    Phoenix Raceway 2020-36 NO 381.50 371.90 9.60 SAME

    ____

  • gje627

    FYI: Daytona 500 correlations … if interested.
    ___________

    Daytona International Speedway Spearman’s Rank Correlations – Cup Series Only

    __

    DESCRIPTION FINISH POSITION DK FPTS FD FPTS
    ————————————————— ——————————— ———————— ——————-
    PLACE DIFFERENTIAL 0.6520 0.8817 0.8130
    FAST LAPS 0.3109 0.3046 0.2993
    LAPS LED 0.2034 0.1292 0.1542
    START POSITION 0.1147 -0.2638 -0.1306
    AVERAGE RUNNING POSITION 0.5575 0.3738 0.4483
    PASS DIFFERENTIAL 0.1776 0.2520 0.2240
    GREEN FLAG PASS 0.4481 0.3504 0.3927
    QUALITY PASS 0.4249 0.2314 0.3071
    TOP 15 LAPS 0.4888 0.2892 0.3678
    DRIVER RATING 0.6119 0.4308 0.5034
    PRACTICE 0.1705 0.0419 0.0953
    CLOSER POSTIONS 0.3931 0.4093 0.4114
    SPEED: GREEN FLAG RUNS 0.4149 0.3265 0.3549
    SPEED: RESTARTS 0.1282 0.1310 0.1322
    SPEED: EARLY IN RUN 0.3455 0.2850 0.3089
    SPEED: LATE IN RUN 0.3934 0.2856 0.3266
    SPEED: RACE SEGMENT 1 0.0384 0.0307 0.0315
    SPEED: RACE SEGMENT 2 0.2328 0.1455 0.1759
    SPEED: RACE SEGMENT 3 0.3411 0.2547 0.2863
    SPEED: RACE SEGMENT 4 0.5013 0.4122 0.4479
    SPEED: ALL SEGMENTS 0.3985 0.3084 0.3386

    _____

    NOTE: All p-values ≤ 0.05. Correlations are Daytona superspeedway only and do not include numbers for the Daytona road course.
    _____

  • gje627

    FYI: again … if interested.
    ___

    BUSCH CLASH STARTING LINEUP (STARTING ORDER)

    01 Ryan Blaney
    02 Alex Bowman
    03 Denny Hamlin
    04 Brad Keselowski
    05 William Byron
    06 Tyler Reddick
    07 Chase Elliott
    08 Cole Custer
    09 Erik Jones
    10 Joey Logano
    11 Ryan Newman
    12 Matt DiBenedetto
    13 Chris Buescher
    14 Ty Dillon
    15 Kurt Busch
    16 Kyle Busch
    17 Kevin Harvick
    18 Martin Truex Jr
    19 Austin Dillon
    20 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
    21 Aric Almirola
    ___

    DRAFTKINGS

    50,707 — total possible DK lineups; total possible salary range $34,600 – $50,000.
    285.80 — projected optimal/winning DK total fantasy points score (6-driver lineup) … based on my driver projections.
    ___

    FANDUEL

    18,421 — total possible FD lineups; total possible salary range $40,000 – $50,000.
    199.60 — projected optimal/winning FD total fantasy points score (5-driver lineup) … based on my driver projections.

  • BigRay

    @depalma13 said...

    They really need to add bonus points for stage finishes. That would make the game far more interesting.

    Agreed. Plus It would make something to root for 2 times before the finish

  • depalma13

    Busch Clash this year is on the Road Course.

  • jt77316

    Always love these deep dives into the numbers and all the insight provided by GJE. I may not understand but 50% of it (at best) at a given time, but I appreciate the posts nonetheless. Great stuff.

  • DraftKings_CM

    • DraftKings Representative

    Not really sure why DK made these changes (would love to hear from DK on this BTW …) but obviously since NASCAR scoring is very close among and between lineups, even these seemingly minor changes will be meaningful.

    I’m probably not comprehending something, but by lowering scores for those finishing further back, it seems the opposite? The value on a guy who started 37th and finished 27th, is less now, right?

    We are always looking for opportunities to evolve our skill-based DFS contests, that is the thought process that motivates every Rules & Scoring change we make. Nothing escapes our oversight, we consider every factor – inclusive of the prevalence of ties. We hope that you’ll find other ways the new rules add excitement to your contests.

    Please don’t hesitate to share your feedback once you’ve played a few races – we’d love to hear what you like and what you think still has room for improvement!

    They really need to add bonus points for stage finishes. That would make the game far more interesting.

    Agreed. Plus It would make something to root for 2 times before the finish

    Contest scoring evolution is a smooth process that takes time to ensure you don’t shock the ecosystem by introducing too much all at once. We may not be able to add stage-based bonus points right now, but then again, who knows what the future could hold?

    Pretty sure Skynet would be more forthcoming about its algorithms than D.K.

    - DraftKings Community Team

  • gje627

    IMPORTANT: Chase Elliott to the rear for unapproved adjustment. Will still be scored from 7th.

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    Always love these deep dives into the numbers and all the insight provided by GJE. I may not understand but 50% of it (at best) at a given time, but I appreciate the posts nonetheless. Great stuff.

    Thanks for the kind words !!! :)

  • draftkings5464

    Draft Kings NASCAR Achievements:

    Fantasy Cup Series Ironman – Play $1+ in NAS entries for 35 Cup Series races from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    NOTE: Total of $1+ in NAS entry fees per day

    Milestone 1: 35 Races – 5,000 Crowns

    All Series Ironman – Play $1+ in NAS entries for 86 Cup Series races from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    NOTE: Total of $1+ in NAS entry fees per day

    Milestone 1: 86 Races – 7,500 Crowns

    Track Veteran – Total Cup Series races playing $1+ in NAS entries from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    NOTE: Total of $1+ in NAS entry fees per day

    Milestone 1: 10 Races – 10 Crowns

    Milestone 2: 15 Races – 30 Crowns

    Milestone 3: 20 Races – 40 Crowns

    Milestone 4: 25 Races – 50 Crowns

    Milestone 5: 30 Races – 75 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 33 Races – 100 Crowns

    Gearhead – Total NASCAR races (Cup Series, Truck Series, and Xfinity Series) playing $1+ in NAS entries from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    NOTE: Total of $1+ in NAS entry fees per day

    Milestone 1: 10 Races – 10 Crowns

    Milestone 2: 15 Races – 20 Crowns

    Milestone 3: 20 Races – 30 Crowns

    Milestone 4: 30 Races – 40 Crowns

    Milestone 5: 45 Races – 50 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 60 Races – 75 Crowns

    Milestone 7: 75 Races – 80 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 80 Races – 100 Crowns

    Pack Leader – Total number of laps led in paid Cup Series entries from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    Milestone 1: 100 Laps Led – 10 Crowns

    Milestone 2: 1,000 Laps Led – 20 Crowns

    Milestone 3: 2,500 Laps Led – 30 Crowns

    Milestone 4: 5,000 Laps Led – 40 Crowns

    Milestone 5: 10,000 Laps Led – 50 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 15,000 Laps Led – 60 Crowns

    Milestone 7: 25,000 Laps Led – 75 Crowns

    Milestone 8: 50,000 Laps Led – 100 Crowns

    Milestone 9: 100,000 Laps Led – 150 Crowns

    Milestone 10: 250,000 Laps Led – 250 Crowns

    Milestone 11: 500,000 Laps Led – 1,000 Crowns

    Milestone 12: 1,000,000 Laps Led – 5,000 Crowns

    Six-Car Tango – Draft a paid Cup Series entry where all six drivers finish in the top 15 from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    Milestone 1: 1 Entry – 500 Crowns

    Champagne Popper – Total races drafting the 1st place finisher in a paid Cup Series entry from 2/14/21 and 11/7/21.

    Milestone 1: 3 Races – 10 Crowns

    Milestone 2: 5 Races – 20 Crowns

    Milestone 3: 10 Races – 30 Crowns

    Milestone 4: 15 Races – 50 Crowns

    Milestone 5: 20 Races – 100 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 25 Races – 200 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 30 Races – 500 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 33 Races – 1,000 Crowns

    Milestone 6: 36 Races – 2,500 Crowns

    Scrap Star – Draft a driver in a paid Cup Series entry between 2/14/21 and 11/7/21 who costs $5,500 or less and finishes in the top-ten positions in that day’s race.

    Milestone 1: 1 Driver – 100 Crowns

    Edit: formatting

  • gje627

    Edit.

  • livetorace17

    @DraftKings_CM said...

    We are always looking for opportunities to evolve our skill-based DFS contests, that is the thought process that motivates every Rules & Scoring change we make. Nothing escapes our oversight, we consider every factor – inclusive of the prevalence of ties. We hope that you’ll find other ways the new rules add excitement to your contests.

    Please don’t hesitate to share your feedback once you’ve played a few races – we’d love to hear what you like and what you think still has room for improvement!

    Contest scoring evolution is a smooth process that takes time to ensure you don’t shock the ecosystem by introducing too much all at once. We may not be able to add stage-based bonus points right now, but then again, who knows what the future could hold?

    Probably my biggest beef is the disqualifications. While it doesn’t happen often, the current practice of “disqualifications dont matter for DK results” is simply unacceptable. The results of the race are fundamentally changed after the fact based on technical inspections, the idea that this is not reflected in DK scoring and subsequent payouts is not good business, IMO. If Tyler Reddick was DQ’d, his DK result should reflect the actual race result – not where he crossed the line. The car was illegal by the rule book, even if only by a small amount. If a play is not ruled a catch in football (due to the legality of the play) you don’t get the points for the reception or yardage for the player, why is this any different?

    There are no problems stat correcting football or basketball slates, it happens all the time and it wildly swings payouts for folks with considerably more money in play than nascar. What is the difference in your stats provider changing stats after a football game that affects the outcome but not honoring the official posted race results after the fact by nascar?

    In that same vein, why are drivers sent to the rear to start not scored from there? Their original starting position is invalid at that point.

    I agree with the stage points here. This is an immediate improvement that would produce differing strategies and more variance in lineups. Perhaps it’s simply copied form the actual nascar model, where the top 10 stage finishers are awarded the inverse amount of DK points based on their stage finish (stage winner gets 10 points and 10th place gets 1 point.) This would also make the strategy much more integral, because now all you’re basically doing is sitting around for three hours waiting on the end of the race to see where everyone shakes out.

  • SA16

    @livetorace17 said...

    Probably my biggest beef is the disqualifications. While it doesn’t happen often, the current practice of “disqualifications dont matter for DK results” is simply unacceptable. The results of the race are fundamentally changed after the fact based on technical inspections, the idea that this is not reflected in DK scoring and subsequent payouts is not good business, IMO. If Tyler Reddick was DQ’d, his DK result should reflect the actual race result – not where he crossed the line. The car was illegal by the rule book, even if only by a small amount. If a play is not ruled a catch in football (due to the legality of the play) you don’t get the points for the reception or yardage for the player, why is this any different?

    There are no problems stat correcting football or basketball slates, it happens all the time and it wildly swings payouts for folks with considerably more money in play than nascar. What is the difference in your stats provider changing stats after a football game that affects the outcome but not honoring the official posted race results after the fact by nascar?

    In that same vein, why are drivers sent to the rear to start not scored from there? Their original starting position is invalid at that point.

    I agree with the stage points here. This is an immediate improvement that would produce differing strategies and more variance in lineups. Perhaps it’s simply copied form the actual nascar model, where the top 10 stage finishers are awarded the inverse amount of DK points based on their stage finish (stage winner gets 10 points and 10th place gets 1 point.) This would also make the strategy much more integral, because now all you’re basically doing is sitting around for three hours waiting on the end of the race to see where everyone shakes out.

    DQs would make for a terrible user experience because after every race you’d have to wait an hour or two to see if you really won or lost and it’s also biased to the guys in the top few spots who get checked post race. Stat corrections happenin other sports but they are usually much more minor changes and are the result of scorekeeper doing his job wrong not the player doing something wrong.

    Stage points, I agree, will probably be added eventually

  • livetorace17

    @SA16 said...

    DQs would make for a terrible user experience because after every race you’d have to wait an hour or two to see if you really won or lost and it’s also biased to the guys in the top few spots who get checked post race. Stat corrections happenin other sports but they are usually much more minor changes and are the result of scorekeeper doing his job wrong not the player doing something wrong.

    Stage points, I agree, will probably be added eventually

    Which is worse? IMO, I would rather KNOW that the DK results (that I have spent money on) match the official race results. If I have to wait, so be it – they don’t pay out immediately anyway. I guess its a personal experience type thing, because the knowledge that Reddick achieved those results with a car that was not legal to the rule book (and people got paid because of it) is a terrible user experience for me. Again, that’s just me though.

    And, what’s the difference in a stat correction as a result of a “scorekeeper doing his job wrong” versus a crew member (or some other variable) that did his wrong in Reddick’s case? Principally, there is no difference. I have literally watched them stat correct NFL and NBA slates well after the last game ends and swing slates.

    Anyway, to each his own I suppose.

  • SA16

    @livetorace17 said...

    Which is worse? IMO, I would rather KNOW that the DK results (that I have spent money on) match the official race results. If I have to wait, so be it – they don’t pay out immediately anyway. I guess its a personal experience type thing, because the knowledge that Reddick achieved those results with a car that was not legal to the rule book (and people got paid because of it) is a terrible user experience for me. Again, that’s just me though.

    And, what’s the difference in a stat correction as a result of a “scorekeeper doing his job wrong” versus a crew member (or some other variable) that did his wrong in Reddick’s case? Principally, there is no difference. I have literally watched them stat correct NFL and NBA slates well after the last game ends and swing slates.

    Anyway, to each his own I suppose.

    The difference is a stat correction is because of an error by the scorekeeper. Happens in NHL all the time. A player deflects the puck, the scorekeeper misses it, and it gets fixed later. It’s an error that should have never happened. A DQ is something that happens after the fact and is biased because not every car goes through post race tech. So you’d rather your drivers come outside the top five so they aren’t subject to inspection? It’s entirely possibly the 8th place car would have been DQd but they just don’t get checked. It would make for a real bad experience and completely ruin the sweat of watching the race. Stat corrections are something you know while it happens (i.e. I know my player should be credited with the goal but wasn’t and I’m hoping the league will fix it). DQs you have no idea sometimes it just randomly happens and because of how they do it it will always be an absolutely massive swing from like 1st place to last.

  • depalma13

    @livetorace17 said...

    I would rather KNOW that the DK results (that I have spent money on) match the official race results.

    We are not playing official NASCAR race results. We are playing end of qualifying to waving of checkered flag.

    It is no different than a horse race. The bettors are paid out when the the race is “official”, not after a few horses are tested for drugs an hour later.

    DQ’s after the fact affect prize money for the teams/owners, just as the do in NASCAR. They do not affect the results of the bets.

    Now I know you might say that stewards disqualify horses all the time and it affects the bettors, but the problem there is horse racing gets one lap and they can only punish infractions that occurred during the running after that one lap. NASCAR punishes infractions during the race with penalties.

    As for stat corrections. They do occur after the race in NASCAR. Those correct actual scoring mistakes that happened during the race. The time between end of qualifying and the waving of the checkered flag.

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