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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sun, Feb 25
    2:00 PM ET

    MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES AT ATLANTA
    Atlanta Motor Speedway

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – Nascar strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • bittersweetmint

    @icowpres said...

    I’m on the Morgan Shepherd train for the xfinity race. Who’s with me?!?

    You can have that train all to yourself, friend.

  • bittersweetmint

    Keep in mind that gje’s chart was for the Cup Series and the values in the chart are largely driven by how many laps are in a race.

    The Xfinity races are shorter. Today’s race is only 163 laps long compared to the 325 in the Cup Series. That limits your lap leader/fast lap bonus.

  • macG31

    Anyone know why McLeod is starting 23 when his qual time was much further back?

  • Orangeflow

    DK slates are frozen…../ for 40 minutes now.

  • depalma13

    So I’m not going to win these Xfinity contests because Dillon’s crew went over the wall too early on a pit stop? The insanity never ends.

  • elmore0631

    Boring race..

  • bigwillie20

    How is everyone going to treat the weather tomorrow? Chances it gets rained out? Shortened?

  • gje627

    Atlanta Cup Series Dominator Characteristics – 2005 to 2017 (last 19 races)

    1. In each race since 2005, the primary dominator has finished no lower than 3rd in total DK fantasy points in any given race. In 16 of the 19 races, the primary dominator has ranked 1st in DK fantasy points, so to be “Mr. Obvious” you will need the primary dominator.

    2. In these 19 races, only once has the primary dominator started on the pole. Interestingly, that was last year’s 2017 race when Kevin Harvick started in the top spot.

    3. The primary dominator and the secondary dominator have ranked #1 and #2 in total DK fantasy scoring in 10 of the Atlanta Cup races since 2005 and in the top five (5) in 16 of these 19 races; meaning your winning lineup will almost certainly require top two (2) dominators in tomorrow’s race.

    4. In each of the last four (4) races dating back to 2014, Kevin Harvick has been the primary dominator. In three (3) of those races, Harvick ranked 1st in total DK fantasy scoring and in one (1) he ranked 2nd (2015).

    5. The average start position for the primary dominator since 2005 is 6.53. However, these numbers are skewed by start positions of 11, 20, 18, and 11 in races in 2006, 2007, 2009, and 2013, respectively. When these three outliers are not included, the average starting position for the primary dominator is 4.27.

    6. Surprisingly (somewhat), in only nine (9) of the 19 races since 2005, has the primary dominator actually gone on to win the race.

    7. The average start position for the secondary dominator since 2005 is 9.16. Finding the secondary dominator can be a little difficult, since in seven (7) of the 19 races the secondary dominator has started outside the top 10; and twice outside the top 23 (in 2012 Kevin Harvick started 24th and in 2015 Jimmie Johnson started 37th).

    Note:

    1) Above, “primary dominator” is defined to mean the driver who scored the most dominator points in each race between 2005 and 2017. Likewise, the “secondary dominator” is the driver who scored the 2nd most dominator points in each race.

    2) Obviously… Dominator DK fantasy points = Laps Led DK fantasy points + Fastest Laps DK fantasy points.

    3) For additional information on identifying the top six (6) drivers in various categories for your lineup(s) tomorrow, please see my “too-long” post earlier in this thread.

    4) I know numbers, and I play fantasy sports primarily to “play with data.” I do, however, love sports (primarily hockey, NASCAR, and MMA). Thus, my methods are strictly analytics-based. If it wasn’t I would be broke right now !!! If you want an excellent mixture of NASCAR analytics AND intuition/street-smarts, listen to stevietfpl … I certainly do !!

  • TheImmortalGoud

    I noticed that MRN changed there website, and you can no longer access past race results and fastest laps data. Anyone know where I can find fastest laps data by individual race?

  • gje627

    The easiest place to find your data is Racing Reference at http://racing-reference.info

    I have the data and would post here, but it’s 810 lines long, so I don’t want to overwhelm this thread with data.

    Thus, I sent you a PM/DM with the data you requested for Atlanta. I sent it in tabular format. You should be able to copy and paste it directly in Excel or another spreadsheet program of your choosing (it will maintain tabs, in Excel “paste special” —> “values” to get rid of goofy formatting). If that’s not sufficent, just reply to my PM/DM and I’ll re-send in .csv format.

  • ClemsonAce

    Great Post… thanks for all the info!

  • billholler

    I foresee a Tuesday race.

  • ClemsonAce

    ownership on Truex… I’m guessing 50-70% in the gpp’s? Based on practice speeds, I’m thinking it’s probably wrong to make that fade, I made just suck it up and go 90%… a reverse Dean if you listen to the NBA show :)

  • MrSnuffleupagus

    @ClemsonAce said...

    ownership on Truex… I’m guessing 50-70% in the gpp’s? Based on practice speeds, I’m thinking it’s probably wrong to make that fade, I made just suck it up and go 90%… a reverse Dean if you listen to the NBA show :)

    Are wrecks common at this place ?? I know dick about nascar. Maybe fade Truex and hope for car trouble or diarrhea?

  • billholler

    @MrSnuffleupagus said...

    Are wrecks common at this place ?? I know dick about nascar. Maybe fade Truex and hope for car trouble or diarrhea?

    Been 3 years since a car wrecked out.

  • yellowdart24

    @MrSnuffleupagus said...

    Are wrecks common at this place ?? I know dick about nascar. Maybe fade Truex and hope for car trouble or diarrhea?

    I will have nearly 100% Truex. The odds of him finishing top 10 and maybe even leading far outweighs the odds of having an issue. He probably will fall in that 60% range so if you have 95% you get an edge on a guy who will very likely end up on the optimal lineup.

  • billholler

    @yellowdart24 said...

    I will have nearly 100% Truex. The odds of him finishing top 10 and maybe even leading far outweighs the odds of having an issue. He probably will fall in that 60% range so if you have 95% you get an edge on a guy who will very likely end up on the optimal lineup.

    I concur

  • yellowdart24

    Guys I like… Kyle Busch, Harvick, Larson, JJ, Logano, Blaney, TRUEX!!!, Wallace, Whitt, Ty

    Guys I’m considering fading but still debating… Chase, Brad, Newman

    Wildcards… Bowyer, Menard, Austin, Ricky

    When looking at practice pay only attention to 10 lap average. Bowyer was quickest in the 15 lap average for those who find that interesting.

  • yellowdart24

    @billholler said...

    I concur

    Similar scenarios happened last year when Larson kept starting last. Take your free square and move on. This race sets up well to have Kyle B, Harvick, and Truex in cash. In gpps, I’ll probably split Kyle and Harvick and focus on great place diff plays like Truex, Logano, JJ, BLANEY!!!, and maybe some Chase but he looks slow.

  • billholler

    @yellowdart24 said...

    Similar scenarios happened last year when Larson kept starting last. Take your free square and move on. This race sets up well to have Kyle B, Harvick, and Truex in cash. In gpps, I’ll probably split Kyle and Harvick and focus on great place diff plays like Truex, Logano, JJ, BLANEY!!!, and maybe some Chase but he looks slow.

    I just have to think that most of the casual players will avoid Harvick simply because they don’t know how good he has been at Atlanta. Busch has to be a strong dominator or at least win the race. Based on the stats provided in this thread, pole leader has not been a good spot to be a dominator.

  • yellowdart24

    @billholler said...

    I just have to think that most of the casual players will avoid Harvick simply because they don’t know how good he has been at Atlanta. Busch has to be a strong dominator or at least win the race. Based on the stats provided in this thread, pole leader has not been a good spot to be a dominator.

    In gpps I’ll lean Harvick over Kyle but in cash I’ll go both. It’s really hard to believe Kyle won’t at least lead the beginning of the race. Plus he gets pit stall one. I expect Harvick to win but I’ll be surprised if Kyle doesn’t grab a decent chunk of dominator points. Kyle will be a bad pick though if he only leads say 10 laps and never gets it again. He needs 50+ laps led

  • BigA

    No update on the cheat sheet this week?

  • Jacobkaiser1325

    For value I think I’m going with Wallace, Ty Dillon and then either Allmendinger or Menard, both have been fast this week

  • krighton

    Looks like the rain path is north of atlanta….percentages chances have dropped some

  • depalma13

    @yellowdart24 said...

    Guys I like… Kyle Busch, Harvick, Larson, JJ, Logano, Blaney, TRUEX!!!, Wallace, Whitt, Ty

    Guys I’m considering fading but still debating… Chase, Brad, Newman

    Wildcards… Bowyer, Menard, Austin, Ricky

    When looking at practice pay only attention to 10 lap average. Bowyer was quickest in the 15 lap average for those who find that interesting.

    Only interested in 10 lap average after they have run at least 20 laps.

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