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  • jt77316

    Auto Club Speedway –

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 4:05 PM (FS1)
    — Practice 2: Friday, 5:35 PM (FS1)
    — Qualifying: Saturday, 2:35 PM (FS1)
    — Race: Auto Club 400, Sunday, 3:30 PM (FOX)

    Race Details

    — xx Drivers Entered; 200 Laps, 400 miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 60; Stage 2: Lap 61 – 120; Stage 3: Lap 121 – 200
    — Expected Fuel/Pit Window – xx-xx Laps

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate.

    Auto Club Speedway –

    2 mile, low-banked, D-shaped oval superspeedway

    Similar Tracks: Chicagoland and Michigan

    Last Five (5) Race Winners

    — 03/22/2015: Brad Keselowski
    — 03/20/2016: Jimmie Johnson
    — 03/26/2017: Kyle Larson
    — 03/18/2018: Martin Truex, Jr.
    — 03/17/2019: Kyle Busch

    Last Five (5) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    03/22/2015: Martin Truex, Jr. (115.50 DK FPts) – Brad Keselowski (67.5 FD FPts)
    03/20/2016: Kevin Harvick (102.50 DK FPts) – Jimmie Johnson (75.0 FD FPts)
    03/26/2017: Kyle Larson (92.50 DK FPts) – Kyle Larson (74.2 FD FPts)
    03/18/2018: Martin Truex, Jr. (117.75 DK FPts) – Martin Truex, Jr. (75.5 FD FPts)
    03/17/2019: Kyle Busch (115.50 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (77.9 FD FPts)

    Data from Last 5 Auto Club Races

    Driver Rating:

    1. Kyle Busch – 117.4
    2. Martin Truex, Jr. – 112.7
    3. Joey Logano – 110.1
    4. Brad Keselowski – 103.5
    5. Kevin Harvick – 100.4

    Laps Led:

    1. Martin Truex, Jr. – 224
    2. Kyle Busch – 203
    3. Kevin Harvick – 176
    4. Denny Hamlin – 71
    5. Kurt Busch – 65

    Fastest Laps:

    1. Martin Truex, Jr. – 119
    2. Kevin Harvick – 115
    3. Kyle Busch – 114
    4. Kurt Busch – 57
    5. Brad Keselowksi – 52

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Youngstevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather
    Jayski

    Note: As needed information above will be updated

  • gje627

    You heard it here first ….

    Hendrick Motorsports kills at Auto Club ….

    All four drivers, Top 15 ….

    Chase Elliott dominates.

    But ….

    Chad Knaus pulls a fast one on the last pit stop … and William Byron gets his first Cup win ….

  • Moszman

    My least favorite track! This and the Michigan races are hard for me to watch.

  • tony20rocks

    @Moszman said...

    My least favorite track! This and the Michigan races are hard for me to watch.

    It’s not a good track with the low HP package at all.

  • tony20rocks

    Looks like Truex is a must-play now with him not being able to qualify.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    Anyone know where I can find DK winning LU data for previous Fontana races? 2019 and 2018? Thanks in advance!

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @tony20rocks said...

    Looks like Truex is a must-play now with him not being able to qualify.

    Yep, basically a free square. Question now is, who can pick the winning 5 lol

  • gje627

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    Anyone know where I can find DK winning LU data for previous Fontana races? 2019 and 2018? Thanks in advance!

    Tried to make everything fit another way, but it didn’t work.

    2018

    FPts: 355.50
    Salary: 49900
    Cole Whitt
    William Byron
    Clint Bowyer
    Jimmie Johnson
    Kyle Busch

    2019

    FPts: 321.75
    Salary: 50000
    Cody Ware
    Michael McDowell
    William Byron
    Ryan Blaney
    Brad Keselowski
    Kyle Busch

  • jcotdl

    i set truex O/U at 70%. thoughts?

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @gje627 said...

    Tried to make everything fit another way, but it didn’t work.

    2018

    FPts: 355.50
    Salary: 49900
    Cole Whitt
    William Byron
    Clint Bowyer
    Jimmie Johnson
    Kyle Busch

    2019

    FPts: 321.75
    Salary: 50000
    Cody Ware
    Michael McDowell
    William Byron
    Ryan Blaney
    Brad Keselowski
    Kyle Busch

    Thank you gje627!! You are

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    Thank you gje627!! You are

    I just realized you only have 5 drivers listed for the 2018 LU. Who is missing? Thanks!

  • gje627

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    I just realized you only have 5 drivers listed for the 2018 LU. Who is missing? Thanks!

    Oops … Sorry …. Forgot Truex, Jr.

    2018

    FPts: 355.50
    Salary: 49900
    Cole Whitt
    William Byron
    Clint Bowyer
    Jimmie Johnson
    Kyle Busch
    Martin Truex Jr

  • gje627

    This may be more helpful …. You may need to zoom-out to see everything. There are 9 columns. The first column is “Name” and the last is “Total”.

    Auto Club – 2018 NASCAR Cup Start and Finish Position, DK Salary, DK Fantasy Points Detail – Optimal Lineup

    Name Salary Start Finish PD Fast Laps Laps Led Fin Pos Total
    —————————- ———— ———- ———— ———- ————- ———— ———— ————
    Martin Truex 10800 1 1 0.00 34.50 31.25 46.00 111.75
    Kyle Busch 10300 2 3 -1.00 13.00 15.50 41.00 68.50
    Jimmie Johnson 9000 33 9 24.00 0.00 0.00 35.00 59.00
    Clint Bowyer 8000 26 11 15.00 0.00 0.00 33.00 48.00
    William Byron 6600 29 15 14.00 0.00 0.25 29.00 43.25
    Cole Whitt 5200 37 28 9.00 0.00 0.00 16.00 25.00

    ___________

    Auto Club – 2019 NASCAR Cup Start and Finish Position, DK Salary, DK Fantasy Points Detail – Optimal Lineup

    Name Salary Start Finish PD Fast Laps Laps Led Fin Pos Total
    —————————- ———— ———- ———— ———- ————- ———— ———— ————
    Kyle Busch 12600 4 1 3.00 33.00 33.50 46.00 115.50
    Brad Keselowski 11500 13 3 10.00 14.00 10.50 41.00 75.50
    Ryan Blaney 8400 10 5 5.00 6.50 0.50 39.00 51.00
    William Byron 6900 22 15 7.00 2.50 0.75 29.00 39.25
    Michael McDowell 5800 29 24 5.00 1.50 0.00 20.00 26.50
    Cody Ware 4800 34 32 2.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 14.00

    ___________

  • mbunner23

    Let’s talk cash plays on DK. Treux is a lock, also like Austin Dillon, and Hamlin. Anyone else sticking out?

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #95

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    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @mbunner23 said...

    Let’s talk cash plays on DK. Treux is a lock, also like Austin Dillon, and Hamlin. Anyone else sticking out?

    Byron and Jones. Chastain maybe on the cheap end.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    This is just great info dude!! Check your inbox.

  • Beckhams3Fingers

    @gje627 said...

    This may be more helpful …. You may need to zoom-out to see everything. There are 9 columns. The first column is “Name” and the last is “Total”.

    Auto Club – 2018 NASCAR Cup Start and Finish Position, DK Salary, DK Fantasy Points Detail – Optimal Lineup

    Name Salary Start Finish PD Fast Laps Laps Led Fin Pos Total
    —————————- ———— ———- ———— ———- ————- ———— ———— ————
    Martin Truex 10800 1 1 0.00 34.50 31.25 46.00 111.75
    Kyle Busch 10300 2 3 -1.00 13.00 15.50 41.00 68.50
    Jimmie Johnson 9000 33 9 24.00 0.00 0.00 35.00 59.00
    Clint Bowyer 8000 26 11 15.00 0.00 0.00 33.00 48.00
    William Byron 6600 29 15 14.00 0.00 0.25 29.00 43.25
    Cole Whitt 5200 37 28 9.00 0.00 0.00 16.00 25.00

    ___________

    Auto Club – 2019 NASCAR Cup Start and Finish Position, DK Salary, DK Fantasy Points Detail – Optimal Lineup

    Name Salary Start Finish PD Fast Laps Laps Led Fin Pos Total
    —————————- ———— ———- ———— ———- ————- ———— ———— ————
    Kyle Busch 12600 4 1 3.00 33.00 33.50 46.00 115.50
    Brad Keselowski 11500 13 3 10.00 14.00 10.50 41.00 75.50
    Ryan Blaney 8400 10 5 5.00 6.50 0.50 39.00 51.00
    William Byron 6900 22 15 7.00 2.50 0.75 29.00 39.25
    Michael McDowell 5800 29 24 5.00 1.50 0.00 20.00 26.50
    Cody Ware 4800 34 32 2.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 14.00

    ___________

    Check your inbox!

  • gje627

    @Beckhams3Fingers said...

    Check your inbox!

    I read and replied.

    Thank you.

  • Moneymakers90

    Let’s talk about gpp plays that stick out

  • gje627

    Some DK Numbers ….

    Total Possible Lineups: 2,408,341
    Total Possible “Realistic” Lineups: 24,525

    Ran DK simulations …. 12,000 iterations.

    Based on the results, below are my DK “Value” rankings (FPts potential + salary) ….

    Important, these ranking are more appropriate for DK Cash …. Have yet to run GPP (upside) numbers.

    Also important, the rankings are only as good as the drivers you put together in a 6 driver lineup.

    Finally … important again and related to first “important” … this first run places significant emphasis on “Base Points (Place Differential + Finish Position). Further runs are needed to better estimate more comprehensive rankings.

    Finally worth mentioning …. On DK today, the numbers say your lineup will need a minimum of 227 Base place differential FPts (or a combined starting position of 233) Base Fantasy Points (place differential + finish position) to place highly.

    Edit above courtesy of Stangs13 …. Thanks again Stangs !!!

    01. Martin Truex
    02. Ryan Blaney
    03. Alex Bowman
    04. Erik Jones
    05. Austin Dillon
    06. Joey Logano
    07. William Byron
    08. Ross Chastain
    09. Denny Hamlin
    10. Ty Dillon
    11. Daniel Suarez
    12. Matt DiBenedetto
    13. Brad Keselowski
    14. Ryan Preece
    15. Garrett Smithley
    16. John H Nemechek
    17. Clint Bowyer
    18. Brennan Poole
    19. Kevin Harvick
    20. Christopher Bell
    21. Kyle Larson
    22. Chris Buescher
    23. Corey Lajoie
    24. Bubba Wallace
    25. JJ Yeley
    26. Timmy Hill
    27. Ricky Stenhouse
    28. Joey Gase
    29. Reed Sorenson
    30. Quin Houff
    31. Kurt Busch
    32. Kyle Busch
    33. Chase Elliott
    34. Tyler Reddick
    35. Cole Custer
    36. Aric Almirola
    37. Michael McDowell
    38. Jimmie Johnson
    _______

    Important EDIT: Please take the numbers above with a grain of salt. I re-ran twice using the exact same algorithm above under two additional scenarios: 1) Martin Truex finishing at his 50th percentile (median), … 10.2 in my model and 0.00 standard deviations.; and 2) Martin Truex finishing DNF. As you would/should expect … comparing the results of all three simulations produce dramatically different results. This is largely due to the fact that starting dead last, he has the most place differential upside of anyone in the race and then combined with his potential for a high finish plus (importantly) his significantly high salary. Removing him due to DNF or putting him at his expected median finishing position really shakes up the rankings.

    With that said, the choice today seems to be simple: Go all in on Truex expecting a great finish position OR take a chance on a guy like Harvick (also expensive … very expensive) to totally dominate the race….

  • EhhTimmay

    Having to put Truex in is making for some ugly looking lineups for me.

  • siddom

    ty dillon + blaney with $500 left on the table or Austin Dillon + Byron with $0 left on the table? dk cash

  • Sportsfan100

    I’m on FD and I’m going with a core of Truex, Bowman and A. Dillon, with some Blaney, Elliott, Jones and Chastain thrown in the mix. This is for GPP and based on reading pundits articles. My personal NASCAR knowledge is minimal. Thoughts? Opinions? Advice?

  • codygracyalny

    Best plays $5.5k and under on DK?

  • Pandamonious

    • Ranked #95

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • Moderator

    • 2020 Blogger of the Month

    @siddom said...

    ty dillon + blaney with $500 left on the table or Austin Dillon + Byron with $0 left on the table? dk cash

    A Dillon/Byron, for sure.

  • gje627

    @codygracyalny said...

    Best plays $5.5k and under on DK?

    GPPs: LaJoie or Preece
    Cash: Any driver below your 5.5K salary threshold starting at or below position 30; with the most important consideration being whether the numbers say they are likely to finish the race. I would probably avoid Timmy Hill … but other than that Yeley, Poole, Sorenson
    Gase, Houff, or Smithley … your choice. Maybe Yeley or Sorenson … but who knows.

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