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  • gje627

    Bristol Motor Speedway — “The World’s Fastest Half Mile”, “Thunder Valley”, “The Last Great Colosseum”, “The Bullring”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Practice 1: Friday, August 16, 11:05-11:55 AM (NBCSN)
    Practice 2: Friday, August 16, 1:05-1:55 PM (NBCSN)
    Qualifying: Friday, August 16, 5:35 PM (NBCSN)
    Technical Inspection: Saturday, August 17, 2:00 PM (No TV)
    Race: Saturday, August 17, 7:46 PM (NBCSN); Lineup Lock 7:30 PM

    Inspection Protocol

    Impound Race: Cars will be inspected prior to race.

    Fail 1st Time: Qualifying time disallowed; car/driver start at the rear. Driver scored from the rear and not from starting position based on qualifying. Fail 2nd Time: + Pit crew member ejected for race. Fail 3rd Time: ++ Driver will pass through pit row on Lap 1 (more than likely Lap 2). At Bristol this is a significant penalty since it is a short track.

    Note: If multiple cars fail (i.e. go to the back), the starting positions of cars going to the back is set by owner points and not driver points. For most cars this is the same; however for teams that employ different drivers for different races this may be relevant (see Rick Ware Racing). The difference between owner points and driver points is that owner points are simply the points attached to a car number and driver points are attached to a driver. Pretty sure everyone here knows this already, but on the off-chance someone does not … this is the explanation.

    Race Details

    — 39 Drivers Entered; 500 Laps, 266.5 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 125; Stage 2: Lap 126 – 250; Stage 3: Lap 251 – 500
    — Expected Fuel Window – 170-180 Laps.

    Note: fuel window, fuel cell capacity is an estimate as of 8/12/2019.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2019 (29 Races), 24 Tracks (Charlotte Motor Speedway and Charlotte ROVAL considered 2 Different Tracks)

    — 0.533 mile Short-Track Oval. 24 to 30 degree banking in turns, 6 to 10 degree banking in straights. Straights 650 long, 40 feet wide.
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 0.912 seconds; Low – 0.064 seconds (2007 – Race #1); High – 4.652 seconds (2005 – Race #1); Finishes under caution 2014, Race #1.
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 10 of 24 Tracks (15.78 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 3 of 24 Tracks (6.80 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 4 of 24 Tracks (6.36 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 2 of 24 Tracks (3.97 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 23 of 24 Tracks (39.07% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 20 of 24 Tracks (6.72% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 5 of 24 Tracks (8.35% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 10 of 24 Tracks (15.07% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Changes and Cautions standardized to 100 miles for entire field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Michigan International Speedway, 8/11/2019).

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Darlington Raceway, Dover International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

    Note: For fantasy and analytical purposes Bristol really is a unique track. For analytical purposes, Dover International Speedway is the most comparable, but this is still somewhat of a stretch.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 2016-23: Kevin Harvick (start 24)
    — 2017-08: Jimmie Johnson (start 11)
    — 2017-24: Kyle Busch (start 18)
    — 2018-08: Kyle Busch (start 1)
    — 2018-24: Kurt Busch (start 9)
    — 2019-08: Kyle Busch (start 17)

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    2016-23 Kevin Harvick (DK FPts 133.50) — Kevin Harvick (FD FPts 117.3)
    2017-08 Kyle Larson (DK FPts 110.50) — Jimmie Johnson (FD FPts 106.1)
    2017-24 Kyle Busch (DK FPts 145.00) — Kyle Busch (FD FPts 117.1)
    2018-08 Kyle Larson (DK FPts 150.50) — Kyle Larson (FD FPts 112)
    2018-24 Clint Bowyer (DK FPts 96.00) — Joey Logano (FD FPts 104)
    2019-08 Joey Logano (DK FPts 117.00) — Kyle Busch (FD FPts 108.1)

    Data and Analytics Links – Archived, 8/19/2019, 8:12 AM MT

    Pre-Race

    DK and FD Base Points Grid
    DK and FD Projections — Base and Dominator
    Start Position Analysis — DK Only
    DK and FD Minimum Projected FPts Needed to Cash and Win — GPP Only
    Practice through Qualifying, Including 10-Lap Averages
    Bristol Qualifying Position and Owner Points

    Post-Race

    DK and FD Driver FPts and Top 500 Optimal Lineups

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Stevie’s NASCAR Package
    Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young Twitter – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass Twitter
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

    Any errors and/or omissions above are mine and mine only. If someone identifies an error, please respond by posting a comment and I will correct.

  • gje627

    Okay, I will mention it …. The last few percentages made a little difference in finishing order and therefore base fantasy points. I also included my dominators. Nothing really shocking there either, though. If interested, see update above.

    EDIT: Most importantly (noteworthy), Kyle Busch got the shaft in my final numbers.

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Thanks for all the info gje. Always looked forward to it last year. Nice to see it again!

  • yisman

    exactly $200 short of what I view as a pretty good DK lineup, so I’m forced to downgrade from Blaney to Bowyer

  • Stress1

    GJE…I dabble with NASCAR but am playing tonight. Do you still think a good strategy is to stack the odd starting cars? ie….the 1,3,5 starting spots and find value or did I read that wrong?

  • gje627

    @Stress1 said...

    GJE…I dabble with NASCAR but am playing tonight. Do you still think a good strategy is to stack the odd starting cars? ie….the 1,3,5 starting spots and find value or did I read that wrong?

    Yes … up through maybe 8 to 10, after that I think it doesn’t matters anymore.

    More importantly, I like JGR and also Penske. Personally, I’m playing at least one of Logano/Blaney in all my lineups.

    Funny ….

    I like aggressive drivers at Bristol … even though the chances of catastrophe are high. My thought is that if danger is everywhere focus on the aggressive drivers who storm the front, rather than the tentative who will likely get caught up in a wreck anyways, even if it’s not of their own making. See: Kyle Larson …. Love the way he races, but man I’ve given up a ton of money to him this year.

    With that said, this is BRISTOLBABY !!! …. Anything can happen and as I said before for DFS purposes this could turn out to be the worst night of your DFS life !!!!

  • gje627

    You’re very welcome !!!

    Just so we’re clear …. You do know everything I said was only intended to be funny and all my numbers are made-up, right?

    Geez, it really took a lot of time to make of those numbers !!! …. :)

    Just Kidding …. GOOD LUCK TONIGHT !!!

  • Stress1

    Thanks man!!!

  • gje627

    @Stress1 said...

    Thanks man!!!

    Sorry, rushing with lineups ….

    But yes, my reply was for you !!!

    Hope you win all the moneys !!! :)

  • homers1226

    larson early dom

  • crazylox2001

    Busch / menses or Logano Blaney

  • crazylox2001

    *menard

  • gje627

    @crazylox2001 said...

    Busch / menses or Logano Blaney

    NOT Logano and Blaney together ….

    Maybe Busch/Menard.

    Personally, I would split the difference … Logano/Menard … with room for some more dominators.

    BUT

    If you’ve read anything here ….

    I don’t know sh*t from shinola ….

    If it matters, once lineups are locked I’ll posted my favorite lineup. :)

  • homers1226

    @gje627 said...

    NOT Logano and Blaney together ….

    Maybe Busch/Menard.

    Personally, I would split the difference … Logano/Menard … with room for some more dominators.

    BUT

    If you’ve read anything here ….

    I don’t know sh*t from shinola ….

    If it matters, once lineups are locked I’ll posted my favorite lineup. :)

    have you won much since that double killer 500000 ×2 year

    that was fun to watch

  • Stress1

    Why not Blaney and Logano together? I really don’t know lol trying to learn

  • Stress1

    Ah cause only one or the other can be a dominator?

  • gje627

    @homers1226 said...

    have you won much since that double killer 500000 ×2 year

    that was fun to watch

    Honestly ….

    I haven’t been able to play much this year, been doing other things.

    Certainly not max entering that much (only 33 LUs in the big contest tonight, but this is mostly because it’s Bristol). Had a few good weeks but nothing like last year, but still pretty good.

    Also ….

    What’s with only 50000 × 2 last year ? Feel short-changed … :( … I’m assuming you meant that instead of 500K x 2 !!!!

    Interestingly, this year there is almost zero routine to top players finishing consistently high (new package … new package … new package). Stevie’s still good. sydthekid seems to best among everyone, but I’m not really sure how much money he’s winning given the top-heavy payouts. Overall, still think Stevie, sydthekid, BDholla, Sunglassman, and there’s one or two others I can’t think of right now that are the other top players. Personally, NBA and UFC has been far better to me this year than NASCAR and I haven’t really played much UFC lately, either.

  • gje627

    @Stress1 said...

    Ah cause only one or the other can be a dominator?

    No, because of my super-secret “chart” ….

    That …

    BTW

    I posted for everyone yesterday in the header above. :)

  • yisman

    left 2200 on the table at fanduel

    couldn’t figure out a good way to use it

    lot of satellite overlay there

    would’ve been a good week to multi-enter but I ran out of time

  • toasty99

    Chris Buescher was apparently the play for double ups… He’s around 10 percent owned and Johnson is 80 percent in the ones I’m entered in. Definitely would rather try to gain points with Buescher over Johnson had I known that.

    oh well ….

    At least Ross Chastain isn’t owned much. I’m hopeful he can just finish 26th or something and be worth his super low price.

  • gje627

    And who doesn’t frickn’ love Tom Petty !!!

    RIP brother !!!

    ZZ Ward rocks it out a little better this year !!! :)

  • homers1226

    good luck all

  • gje627

    Per previous post, on DK my optimal lineup per my projections (including dominators) is:

    Joey Logano, Erik Jones, Kurt Busch, Paul Menard, Jimmie Johnson, Clint Bowyer

    My favorite lineups are:

    Joey Logano, Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin, Paul Menard, William Byron, Jimmie Johnson

    and …

    Ryan Blaney, Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, Jimmie Johnson, Daniel Suarez, Clint Bowyer

  • homers1226

    D
    Kyle Busch
    31
    62.77
    D
    Kyle Larson

    2
    36.26
    D
    Ryan Blaney
    12
    36.2
    D
    C. Buescher
    29
    31.55
    D
    Ty Dillon
    24
    26.65
    D
    M. McDowell
    28
    ————————-
    D
    M. Truex Jr

    3
    50.98
    D
    Joey Logano
    11
    47.53
    D
    C. Bowyer

    20
    26.44
    D
    J. Johnson

    30
    28.8
    D
    Ty Dillon
    24
    26.65
    D
    M. McDowell
    28

  • gje627

    Okay …

    This is where the rubber hits the road !!!

    Get It ??

    Huge luck to everyone here tonight !!!

    YEE-HAW !!!!

  • yisman

    @toasty99 said...

    Chris Buescher was apparently the play for double ups… He’s around 10 percent owned and Johnson is 80 percent in the ones I’m entered in. Definitely would rather try to gain points with Buescher over Johnson had I known that.

    oh well ….

    At least Ross Chastain isn’t owned much. I’m hopeful he can just finish 26th or something and be worth his super low price.

    I used Chastain everywhere. Needed the savings so I could afford Kyle Busch

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