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  • gje627

    Bristol Motor Speedway — “The World’s Fastest Half Mile”, “Thunder Valley”, “The Last Great Colosseum”, “The Bullring”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Practice 1: Friday, August 16, 11:05-11:55 AM (NBCSN)
    Practice 2: Friday, August 16, 1:05-1:55 PM (NBCSN)
    Qualifying: Friday, August 16, 5:35 PM (NBCSN)
    Technical Inspection: Saturday, August 17, 2:00 PM (No TV)
    Race: Saturday, August 17, 7:46 PM (NBCSN); Lineup Lock 7:30 PM

    Inspection Protocol

    Impound Race: Cars will be inspected prior to race.

    Fail 1st Time: Qualifying time disallowed; car/driver start at the rear. Driver scored from the rear and not from starting position based on qualifying. Fail 2nd Time: + Pit crew member ejected for race. Fail 3rd Time: ++ Driver will pass through pit row on Lap 1 (more than likely Lap 2). At Bristol this is a significant penalty since it is a short track.

    Note: If multiple cars fail (i.e. go to the back), the starting positions of cars going to the back is set by owner points and not driver points. For most cars this is the same; however for teams that employ different drivers for different races this may be relevant (see Rick Ware Racing). The difference between owner points and driver points is that owner points are simply the points attached to a car number and driver points are attached to a driver. Pretty sure everyone here knows this already, but on the off-chance someone does not … this is the explanation.

    Race Details

    — 39 Drivers Entered; 500 Laps, 266.5 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 125; Stage 2: Lap 126 – 250; Stage 3: Lap 251 – 500
    — Expected Fuel Window – 170-180 Laps.

    Note: fuel window, fuel cell capacity is an estimate as of 8/12/2019.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2019 (29 Races), 24 Tracks (Charlotte Motor Speedway and Charlotte ROVAL considered 2 Different Tracks)

    — 0.533 mile Short-Track Oval. 24 to 30 degree banking in turns, 6 to 10 degree banking in straights. Straights 650 long, 40 feet wide.
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 0.912 seconds; Low – 0.064 seconds (2007 – Race #1); High – 4.652 seconds (2005 – Race #1); Finishes under caution 2014, Race #1.
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 10 of 24 Tracks (15.78 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 3 of 24 Tracks (6.80 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 4 of 24 Tracks (6.36 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 2 of 24 Tracks (3.97 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 23 of 24 Tracks (39.07% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 20 of 24 Tracks (6.72% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 5 of 24 Tracks (8.35% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 10 of 24 Tracks (15.07% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Changes and Cautions standardized to 100 miles for entire field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Michigan International Speedway, 8/11/2019).

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Darlington Raceway, Dover International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

    Note: For fantasy and analytical purposes Bristol really is a unique track. For analytical purposes, Dover International Speedway is the most comparable, but this is still somewhat of a stretch.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 2016-23: Kevin Harvick (start 24)
    — 2017-08: Jimmie Johnson (start 11)
    — 2017-24: Kyle Busch (start 18)
    — 2018-08: Kyle Busch (start 1)
    — 2018-24: Kurt Busch (start 9)
    — 2019-08: Kyle Busch (start 17)

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    2016-23 Kevin Harvick (DK FPts 133.50) — Kevin Harvick (FD FPts 117.3)
    2017-08 Kyle Larson (DK FPts 110.50) — Jimmie Johnson (FD FPts 106.1)
    2017-24 Kyle Busch (DK FPts 145.00) — Kyle Busch (FD FPts 117.1)
    2018-08 Kyle Larson (DK FPts 150.50) — Kyle Larson (FD FPts 112)
    2018-24 Clint Bowyer (DK FPts 96.00) — Joey Logano (FD FPts 104)
    2019-08 Joey Logano (DK FPts 117.00) — Kyle Busch (FD FPts 108.1)

    Data and Analytics Links – Archived, 8/19/2019, 8:12 AM MT

    Pre-Race

    DK and FD Base Points Grid
    DK and FD Projections — Base and Dominator
    Start Position Analysis — DK Only
    DK and FD Minimum Projected FPts Needed to Cash and Win — GPP Only
    Practice through Qualifying, Including 10-Lap Averages
    Bristol Qualifying Position and Owner Points

    Post-Race

    DK and FD Driver FPts and Top 500 Optimal Lineups

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Stevie’s NASCAR Package
    Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young Twitter – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass Twitter
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

    Any errors and/or omissions above are mine and mine only. If someone identifies an error, please respond by posting a comment and I will correct.

  • gje627

    Well … The cluster**** has begun. At least Logano could take the wave-around to get a lap back.

    Blaney …..

  • Presleywhite

    what are the odds of logano getting back on the lead lap? I haven’t watched a ton of races at Bristol… I’m assuming a ton of cautions need to happen?

  • Presleywhite

    nevermind he’s back to 3 down. he’s done

  • RichDaeh

    Never been DFL in a tourney. Humbling.

  • depalma13

    Harvick done

  • yisman

    Chastain 6 laps down

  • toasty99

    @yisman said...

    Chastain 6 laps down

    Luckily it doesn’t matter! Chastain still is doing pretty good for his price. We just need 2-3 more cars to DNF!!!

    Tho Bubba is really the steal.

  • depalma13

    Staying out for playoff points has screwed up lineups. Half my drivers are now at the back. Ughhhhh

  • yisman

    Blaney issues really hurt

  • tristanwolf

    a matty d win would be pretty cool

  • yisman

    that sucked

    maxed Matt D at three books at odds of 45/1, 33/1, 40/1

  • Moszman

    @yisman said...

    left 2200 on the table at fanduel

    couldn’t figure out a good way to use it

    lot of satellite overlay there

    would’ve been a good week to multi-enter but I ran out of time

    Right behind you depending on any point changes in a $25 double up, nice job tonight.

  • depalma13

    Just got point adjusted out of $200. That sucks. Still had a good night, but that just sucked.

  • gje627

    Saw Toasty99 T21 in the big contest !!!

    Sweet !!!

    Congratulations !!!

    Myself … Wow, Logano was the first to suck (guess he couldn’t do much about a cut tire) …. Blaney into Weatherman early screwed Blaney when he was almost to the front?

    Weatherman really needs to learn how to drive …. When you’re slow … and you suck … what do you do?

    Hold your line !!!

    Shouldn’t complain …. Weatherman really screwed a lot of other drivers too.

    Congrats depalma too … and Moszman too on FD !!!.

    Pretty sure the loop data won’t be available until tomorrow, so I’ll post the post-race stuff tomorrow.

    Saw absolutely no regular in any leaderboard tonight, but again it seems now there is really no way to get an edge in NASCAR this year.

    Again ….

    depalma
    Moszman

    and ….

    toasty99

    CONGRATULATIONS !!! :)

  • Moszman

    Thanks, $32 in $67.20 out, info on this thread this week helped me out. Thanks again gje627 for your input this week.

  • toasty99

    @gje627 said...

    Saw Toasty99 T21 in the big contest !!!

    Sweet !!!

    Congratulations !!!

    Myself … Wow, Logano was the first to suck (guess he couldn’t do much about a cut tire) …. Blaney into Weatherman early screwed Blaney when he was almost to the front?

    Weatherman really needs to learn how to drive …. When you’re slow … and you suck … what do you do?

    Hold your line !!!

    Shouldn’t complain …. Weatherman really screwed a lot of other drivers too.

    Congrats depalma too … and Moszman too on FD !!!.

    Pretty sure the loop data won’t be available until tomorrow, so I’ll post the post-race stuff tomorrow.

    Saw absolutely no regular in any leaderboard tonight, but again it seems now there is really no way to get an edge in NASCAR this year.

    Again ….

    depalma
    Moszman

    and ….

    toasty99

    CONGRATULATIONS !!! :)

    Was nice… Just disappointed I hadn’t used that lineup in a smaller tourney and really cashed haha.

  • gje627

    @toasty99 said...

    Was nice… Just disappointed I hadn’t used that lineup in a smaller tourney and really cashed haha.

    Yeah, Kyle Busch and Buescher in the same lineup ….

    What were you thinking !!! :(

    (see an earlier gje627 post … what a charlatan !!!).

    Well at least that pair wasn’t in the winning lineup (sorry toasty99 …)

    Glad you made the the Matty DB call !!!

    I was too chicken-sh*t to to commit fully.

    Next year?

    Hendrick Motorsports ….

    Jimmie Johnson out ….

    Matty DB in. :)

    Christopher Bell in the 95 will also elevate the resources to the Leavine team too, maybe to what Truex, Jr. once had with Furniture Row Racing ….

  • starstx

    Congrats to ye winners … I had 4 of 6 of the winning lineup in the big DK for 51st … Keselowski instead of Busch which would have enough salary for swapping Suarez for Menard and voila tied for 1st. Easy in hindsight but I had no Keselowski and was not even considering playing him but I guess that is how you get a solo 50k all to yourself. B2B weeks of not losing money cant complain. Need to differentiate more though. Had some heavy dupe lineups. I too went too light on DB and shoulda had more … what a run for him

  • depalma13

    Thanks gje627. Your info was extremely valuable this week. It pointed me to a couple of drivers I wasn’t really considering. Turn $200 in $600+. Would have liked DeBendetto to hang on a little longer as those laps lead for Hamlin were enough to push me out of the money in several double ups.

  • onetimer444

    How many points won the big gpp on Draftkings last night? Thanks

  • Toddalan2286

    Driver(s) ranking 1 or 2 in first practice single lap have now been optimal in 13 of the last 14 non restrictor plate oval races. (Coke 600 being the exception.)

  • toasty99

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    Driver(s) ranking 1 or 2 in first practice single lap have now been optimal in 13 of the last 14 non restrictor plate oval races. (Coke 600 being the exception.)

    Just for saying that next week top 2 in first practice will wreck.

  • gje627

    DK and FD driver fantasy scores by scoring category and Top 500 Lineups (obviously including optimal) link posted in header. The file includes three tabs/worksheets.

    For those who don’t play both sites, DK lineups consist of 6 drivers and FD lineups consist of 5 drivers. The maximum total salary for both sites is $50,000.

    For FD, please note Kyle Weatherman’s fantasy data has been included on the driver page, but he was not included in the run to determine Top 500 FD Lineups. This is because Weatherman was not included in the FD roster, and therefore did not have a salary and was not available to contestants to play.

    Finally, I will leave the links to my Google Drive up for the next day or two, so please if you are interested in downloading anything and have not yet done so, please do it soon.

    Thanks ….

    EDIT: Before I get a question, both the Top 500 lineups for DK and FD include more than 500 lineups. This is to include all ties. Also, the final ranking for DK is #498 and the final ranking for FD is also #498 this again, because of ties (the next rank number for both sites would be #511, and these lineups were not included since they do not fall within the Top 500). Hope this makes sense.

  • Toddalan2286

    @toasty99 said...

    Just for saying that next week top 2 in first practice will wreck.

    Well, I said it before the race in this forum and it played out.

  • gje627

    @onetimer444 said...

    How many points won the big gpp on Draftkings last night? Thanks

    411.50 DK FPts. Interestingly, per the data I posted the optimal was 424.25 DK FPts. The winning lineup was only the 18th best lineup possible (no tie here). Generally, the big contest winning lineup is one of the top lineups, even when it is not the optimal.

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