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  • gje627

    Bristol Motor Speedway — “The World’s Fastest Half Mile”, “Thunder Valley”, “The Last Great Colosseum”, “The Bullring”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    Practice 1: Friday, August 16, 11:05-11:55 AM (NBCSN)
    Practice 2: Friday, August 16, 1:05-1:55 PM (NBCSN)
    Qualifying: Friday, August 16, 5:35 PM (NBCSN)
    Technical Inspection: Saturday, August 17, 2:00 PM (No TV)
    Race: Saturday, August 17, 7:46 PM (NBCSN); Lineup Lock 7:30 PM

    Inspection Protocol

    Impound Race: Cars will be inspected prior to race.

    Fail 1st Time: Qualifying time disallowed; car/driver start at the rear. Driver scored from the rear and not from starting position based on qualifying. Fail 2nd Time: + Pit crew member ejected for race. Fail 3rd Time: ++ Driver will pass through pit row on Lap 1 (more than likely Lap 2). At Bristol this is a significant penalty since it is a short track.

    Note: If multiple cars fail (i.e. go to the back), the starting positions of cars going to the back is set by owner points and not driver points. For most cars this is the same; however for teams that employ different drivers for different races this may be relevant (see Rick Ware Racing). The difference between owner points and driver points is that owner points are simply the points attached to a car number and driver points are attached to a driver. Pretty sure everyone here knows this already, but on the off-chance someone does not … this is the explanation.

    Race Details

    — 39 Drivers Entered; 500 Laps, 266.5 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 125; Stage 2: Lap 126 – 250; Stage 3: Lap 251 – 500
    — Expected Fuel Window – 170-180 Laps.

    Note: fuel window, fuel cell capacity is an estimate as of 8/12/2019.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2019 (29 Races), 24 Tracks (Charlotte Motor Speedway and Charlotte ROVAL considered 2 Different Tracks)

    — 0.533 mile Short-Track Oval. 24 to 30 degree banking in turns, 6 to 10 degree banking in straights. Straights 650 long, 40 feet wide.
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 0.912 seconds; Low – 0.064 seconds (2007 – Race #1); High – 4.652 seconds (2005 – Race #1); Finishes under caution 2014, Race #1.
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 10 of 24 Tracks (15.78 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 3 of 24 Tracks (6.80 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 4 of 24 Tracks (6.36 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 2 of 24 Tracks (3.97 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 23 of 24 Tracks (39.07% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 20 of 24 Tracks (6.72% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 5 of 24 Tracks (8.35% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 10 of 24 Tracks (15.07% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Changes and Cautions standardized to 100 miles for entire field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Michigan International Speedway, 8/11/2019).

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Darlington Raceway, Dover International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

    Note: For fantasy and analytical purposes Bristol really is a unique track. For analytical purposes, Dover International Speedway is the most comparable, but this is still somewhat of a stretch.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 2016-23: Kevin Harvick (start 24)
    — 2017-08: Jimmie Johnson (start 11)
    — 2017-24: Kyle Busch (start 18)
    — 2018-08: Kyle Busch (start 1)
    — 2018-24: Kurt Busch (start 9)
    — 2019-08: Kyle Busch (start 17)

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    2016-23 Kevin Harvick (DK FPts 133.50) — Kevin Harvick (FD FPts 117.3)
    2017-08 Kyle Larson (DK FPts 110.50) — Jimmie Johnson (FD FPts 106.1)
    2017-24 Kyle Busch (DK FPts 145.00) — Kyle Busch (FD FPts 117.1)
    2018-08 Kyle Larson (DK FPts 150.50) — Kyle Larson (FD FPts 112)
    2018-24 Clint Bowyer (DK FPts 96.00) — Joey Logano (FD FPts 104)
    2019-08 Joey Logano (DK FPts 117.00) — Kyle Busch (FD FPts 108.1)

    Data and Analytics Links – Archived, 8/19/2019, 8:12 AM MT

    Pre-Race

    DK and FD Base Points Grid
    DK and FD Projections — Base and Dominator
    Start Position Analysis — DK Only
    DK and FD Minimum Projected FPts Needed to Cash and Win — GPP Only
    Practice through Qualifying, Including 10-Lap Averages
    Bristol Qualifying Position and Owner Points

    Post-Race

    DK and FD Driver FPts and Top 500 Optimal Lineups

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Stevie’s NASCAR Package
    Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young Twitter – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass Twitter
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

    Any errors and/or omissions above are mine and mine only. If someone identifies an error, please respond by posting a comment and I will correct.

  • gje627

    Here’s something pretty interesting …. The total fantasy scores last night were super low compared to normal. Generally, Bristol sees one primary dominator, a secondary dominator (or two), and a third dominator. Last night there were 5 dominators on DK with roughly equal fantasy points (on FD there were essentially 4 but FD’s scoring is strange … stupid … so whatever).

    Promise … last numbers I’ll post and then I’ll be done ….

    The table below lists the fantasy scores on both DK and FD for the top scoring driver in each of the last 30 races since 2005. Note how the top scoring driver score last night on DK is ranked nearly dead last (29 of 30) and on FD 27 of 30 in all races since 2005.

    The big question then is whether this is a package thing (even though the 750 HP on a short track is most like previous year cars when compared to other 2019 car set-ups)? … Or something else? Or just an aberration?

    If it’s a package thing, then we would expect that the Spring 2019 race would have a similar lower-score for the top driver. In looking at the DK scores below, that seems to be the case, kind-of, but not really as the Spring 2019 race top score was pretty close to the median but a little further from the mean (when the mean is larger than the median this indicates that outliers on the higher end are present).

    When looking at FD, while the rank is exactly at the 2/3rd mark going from highest to lowest, the Spring 2019 score is pretty much the same as scores for other years. With that said, since the substantial majority of fantasy points are for finishing position and “participation points” (i.e. drive some laps, score some points) and very few dominator points are awarded (and only one-half of the number of place differential FPts compared to DK), this should be expected, regardless of the package.

    Anyways, here’s the table if anyone is interested ….

    Note: As always, viewing all columns in tables can be challenging. There are 7 columns in the table below. Thus, if all 7 are not visible please zoom-out.

    Bristol DK and FD – Fantasy Score for Top Scoring Drivers in each Race from 2005 to 2019 (30 races)

    —-

    YR-RACE DK Driver DK FPts DK Rank FD Driver FD FPts FD Rank
    —————- —————————- ————- ————- —————————- ————- ————-
    2005-05 Kevin Harvick 109.75 23 Kevin Harvick 109.9 17
    2005-24 Matt Kenseth 203.25 3 Matt Kenseth 134.5 3
    2006-05 Tony Stewart 112.25 21 Matt Kenseth 102.4 29
    2006-24 Jeff Burton 128.25 14 Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 110 16
    2007-05 Kevin Harvick* 89.25 30 Kevin Harvick 106.3 22
    2007-24 Kasey Kahne 142.25 10 Kasey Kahne 120 6
    2008-05 Tony Stewart 117.75 17 Tony Stewart 100.3 30
    2008-24 Kyle Busch 208.25 1 Kyle Busch 135 2
    2009-05 Kyle Busch 203.50 2 Kyle Busch 140.1 1
    2009-24 Mark Martin 137.00 12 Mark Martin 113.5 12
    2010-05 Kurt Busch 145.00 7 Kurt Busch 115.3 10
    2010-24 Kyle Busch 174.75 4 Kyle Busch 130.3 4
    2011-04 Jimmie Johnson 128.00 15 Kyle Busch 113.8 11
    2011-24 Jeff Gordon 137.50 11 Jeff Gordon 109.1 19
    2012-04 Brad Keselowski 143.50 9 Brad Keselowski 118.2 7
    2012-24 Jimmie Johnson 103.50 25 Jimmie Johnson 112.7 13
    2013-04 Kasey Kahne 114.25 20 Kasey Kahne 104.4 24
    2013-24 Matt Kenseth 116.25 19 Matt Kenseth 109.9 17
    2014-04 Carl Edwards 105.00 24 Carl Edwards 106.6 21
    2014-24 Jamie McMurray 100.50 26 Jamie McMurray 102.8 28
    2015-08 Kyle Larson 95.00 28 Jimmie Johnson 104.1 25
    2015-24 Joey Logano 121.50 16 Joey Logano 112.6 14
    2016-08 Carl Edwards 157.50 5 Carl Edwards 120.6 5
    2016-23 Kevin Harvick 133.50 13 Kevin Harvick 117.3 8
    2017-08 Kyle Larson 110.50 22 Jimmie Johnson 106.1 23
    2017-24 Kyle Busch 145.00 7 Kyle Busch 117.1 9
    2018-08 Kyle Larson 150.50 6 Kyle Larson 112 15
    2018-24 Clint Bowyer 96.00 27 Joey Logano 104 26
    2019-08 Joey Logano 117.00 18 Kyle Busch 108.1 20
    2019-24 Brad Keselowski 94.75 29 Kyle Busch 103.5 27

    DK Median: 124.75 FPts
    DK Mean: 131.37 FPts

    —-

    FD Median: 111.00 FPts
    FD Mean: 113.35 FPts

    —-

    Note: In the 2007-05 race, two drivers tied for high DK FPts, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin. In an effort to save space, the table above only lists Kevin Harvick.

    EDIT: Another “strategy” note for future Bristol …. using the data above, the standard deviation for the high scores on DK above is 31.799; whereas the standard deviation on FD is only 10.093. In my estimation, anyways this supports the contention that DK NASCAR fantasy is far more difficult than FD NASCAR fantasy since you really need to hit on the right top driver(s) on DK. This of course coupled with tighter salaries and the fact that DK requires you to roster 1 more driver (more combinations, even though the DK salary constraint is tighter).

    —-

  • gje627

    @starstx said...

    Congrats to ye winners … I had 4 of 6 of the winning lineup in the big DK for 51st … Keselowski instead of Busch which would have enough salary for swapping Suarez for Menard and voila tied for 1st. Easy in hindsight but I had no Keselowski and was not even considering playing him but I guess that is how you get a solo 50k all to yourself. B2B weeks of not losing money cant complain. Need to differentiate more though. Had some heavy dupe lineups. I too went too light on DB and shoulda had more … what a run for him

    Sweet !!! Congratulations !!!

  • gje627

    @depalma13 said...

    Thanks gje627. Your info was extremely valuable this week. It pointed me to a couple of drivers I wasn’t really considering. Turn $200 in $600+. Would have liked DeBendetto to hang on a little longer as those laps lead for Hamlin were enough to push me out of the money in several double ups.

    You’re welcome. :)

    Nice payday. Congrats again !!! :)

  • toasty99

    I think the multiple dominators this week made sense.

    Realistically Kyle Busch starting 31st was likely to be a dominator or close to it.

    As for the rest, seemed like cars were close and stage racing creates planned cautions that lead to the leaders switching around due to strategy of trying to win a stage vs win a race. Also, don’t forget PJ1 seemed to allow cars to move a bit if tight/loose and find something that would work for a bit.

  • gje627

    @toasty99 said...

    I think the multiple dominators this week made sense.

    Realistically Kyle Busch starting 31st was likely to be a dominator or close to it.

    As for the rest, seemed like cars were close and stage racing creates planned cautions that lead to the leaders switching around due to strategy of trying to win a stage vs win a race. Also, don’t forget PJ1 seemed to allow cars to move a bit if tight/loose and find something that would work for a bit.

    You make three separate points….

    All excellent … at least in my humble opinion !!!

    I would add one more that was sadly not discussed this week.

    That being, the distinction between the Bristol in the Spring and Bristol in the Summer races.

    The Spring race is run during the heart of the day. The Summer race transitions from day to night.

    In this regard, for the Summer race some crew chiefs/engineers set-up cars at race start to be better later on, when the track cools as the sun goes down. Conversely, others set cars up for the beginning of the race and assume they can keep-up with track changes as dusk and darkness approach.

    Sadly, for us DFSers, we never know what the car set-up is like pre-race but only learn via commentary as the race plays out.

    Regarding the multiple dominators … again. I certainly expected two, possibly three, maybe even four … but five?

    Yes, Kyle Busch was a partial dominator (there really is no good definition of dominator besides getting lots-o’ fast laps/laps led points) but a good chunk of his points also came from place differential.

    Anyways, the chaos last night that was expected did in fact come to fruition.

    Still happy that you called the race correctly and scored big !!! … Bristol’s a tough one to call … so huge kudos to you :)

  • gje627

    FYI: I like to keep my folders clean of redundant files, so per a previous message I will be deleting the files that I shared from my Google Drive sometime tomorrow morning, but no earlier than 8:00 AM MT; so if you want to download anything do so soon. I do have all the files/data/information still in my personal folders should someone become desperate (doubt that …) and need something previously posted, but I would really prefer not to “re-share”.

    Update: All data/analytics/information in header archived, 8/19/2019, 8:12 AM MT

  • yisman

    @Moszman said...

    Right behind you depending on any point changes in a $25 double up, nice job tonight.

    thanks
    423.5 cashed me in most contests

  • starstx

    Gje … thanks for spicing up the forum … always appreciated … hope to see you back for next season

  • jt77316

    GJE are you sticking around or can I go ahead and throw up a Darlington thread? I know we’ve got two weeks but I am ready to move on from Bristol.

  • gje627

    @starstx said...

    Gje … thanks for spicing up the forum … always appreciated … hope to see you back for next season

    Thanks stars. I enjoyed our conversations last week. See you next year !!

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    GJE are you sticking around or can I go ahead and throw up a Darlington thread? I know we’ve got two weeks but I am ready to move on from Bristol.

    Thanks for asking but you certainly don’t need my permission.

    Go for it !!! :)

  • jt77316

    Your information and analysis is a lot more informative than anything I contribute. I just like throwing up the dates/times and driver ratings that most people here probably know anyway! If you throw out something in the thread worth adding, I will edit my OP. I will put that up in a little bit.

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    Your information and analysis is a lot more informative than anything I contribute. I just like throwing up the dates/times and driver ratings that most people here probably know anyway! If you throw out something in the thread worth adding, I will edit my OP. I will put that up in a little bit.

    If it’s any consolation ….

    I sometimes wonder if many people even read/look-at most of the stuff I post …. :(

    I think the only comment last week I received on everything was about my Start Position Analysis chart (I do get PMs too, so maybe two or three people actually look at).

    Anyways, I would prefer not to post anything for the header … BUT

    I would be more than happy to send you a PM with a link to my Google Drive to include everything I would typically post in the header, but in a text file so you can just copy-and-paste to see my format and include in your header. I would not include any data/analytics files because I don’t want perpetual linking to my Google Drive public (hence the reason I deleted my links yesterday).

    This would be for Darlington-only, as I don’t want to be responsible for this every week and it can be time-consuming. After Darlington, if you still want to use anything I have we can figure something out; but you would be responsible to format (you would have my format from Darlington to use … or burn my format in effigy and use your own) so I would only need to provide the information ….

    Just let me know ….

    —-

    Oh, BTW … the reason I don’t want to post is because if you move something to your header, the information will redundant in two places … my post and your header. Think it would be easier to simply PM whatever you need ….

    Again … let me know if this works for you. :)

    EDIT: Also, one more thing …. If you ever want to use what I’ve posted in the past, either a file if you kept, or my exact words … go for it and no citation/attribution needed. Whatever I shared in the past here, I did so for everyone’s benefit so I won’t be offended. Thus, it no longer belongs to me but instead … the entire community (I’m an old “open-source” hippie … how do you think I know how to program and where do you think I get a lot of my code? … Hint: Certainly, not my own head as that’s a place even too scary for me to visit ….

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