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  • bhdevault

    • Lead Moderator

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sun, March 18th
    3:30 PM ET

    MONSTER ENERGY NASCAR CUP SERIES AT CALIFORNIA
    Auto Club Speedway

    Admin Note: The mod team is working to keep these weekly threads more on topic – Nascar strategy talk for this week’s contest. Post referring to last week’s contest will be moved to the correct thread. Any off topic posts or posts containing full lineups will be deleted..

  • gje627

    For those who consider practice and qualifying data in lineup construction, below please find a table with results for all drivers for qualifying and each practice session.

    While multiple lap runs during practice sessions are generally a better indicator of race performance, after the table below, please find summary data for each practice session.

    Given space limitations, I’m only including 10 consecutive lap data. All 10-lap data is listed in rank order and includes driver speed.

    Auto Club Speedway: 2018 Practice and Qualfying Rank and Speed

    Driver Qual Rank Qual MPH P1 Rank P1 MPH P2 Rank P2 MPH P3 Rank P3 MPH
    —————————— —————- ——————— ————- ——————— ————- —————— ————- ———-
    Martin Truex Jr 1 186.567 7 187.315 17 182.755 2 185.319
    Kyle Busch 2 186.437 12 186.693 22 181.919 1 185.668
    Kyle Larson 3 186.128 5 187.744 4 183.908 6 184.266
    Erik Jones 4 186.047 8 187.139 12 183.057 21 182.195
    Austin Dillon 5 185.711 9 187.032 26 181.699 14 183.048
    Joey Logano 6 185.577 17 185.893 8 183.477 12 183.346
    Kurt Busch 7 185.185 13 186.678 2 184.431 15 183.015
    Ryan Blaney 8 185.076 23 185.09 5 183.861 8 184.021
    Ryan Newman 9 184.848 4 187.798 13 183.038 9 183.875
    Kevin Harvick 10 184.436 1 189.066 1 186.075 4 184.308
    Brad Keselowski 11 184.36 20 185.376 6 183.58 5 184.28
    Chris Buescher 12 184.341 16 186.326 19 182.602 24 181.938
    Trevor Bayne 13 184.743 28 184.096 20 182.496 22 181.988
    Paul Menard 14 184.596 19 185.567 24 181.86 19 182.746
    Jamie McMurray 15 184.115 11 186.737 25 181.837 10 183.528
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr 16 183.819 25 184.99 27 181.447 20 182.454
    Ty Dillon 17 183.683 24 185.019 29 180.868 28 180.923
    Matt DiBenedetto 18 183.397 22 185.199 31 180.519 31 178.891
    Darrell Wallace Jr 19 182.848 18 185.84 23 181.864 18 182.774
    Gray Gaulding 20 175.161 37 0 34 175.072 37 0
    David Ragan 21 183.87 30 183.351 30 180.587 30 180.212
    Michael McDowell 22 183.603 29 183.538 28 181.073 27 181.009
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 23 176.043 34 174.914 33 175.816 34 173.431
    Reed Sorenson 24 133.735 36 170.628 0 0 36 169.296
    Denny Hamlin 25 0 6 187.32 15 182.778 13 183.169
    Clint Bowyer 26 0 2 188.211 10 183.132 7 184.073
    Aric Almirola 27 0 3 187.936 11 183.118 17 182.834
    Alex Bowman 28 0 10 186.766 9 183.141 11 183.369
    William Byron 29 0 26 184.976 21 182.131 23 181.965
    Daniel Suarez 30 0 21 185.342 16 182.76 16 182.973
    Chase Elliott 31 0 15 186.384 3 184.021 25 181.671
    AJ Allmendinger 32 0 27 184.27 7 183.505 29 180.347
    Jimmie Johnson 33 0 14 186.451 18 182.746 3 184.525
    Kasey Kahne 34 0 31 181.31 14 182.839 26 181.401
    Timmy Hill 35 0 35 174.431 35 171.875 35 171.793
    Ross Chastain 36 0 32 178.798 0 0 32 177.318
    Cole Whitt 37 0 33 176.835 32 177.949 33 177.004

    Practice 1: 10-Lap Run Two (2) Drivers

    Denny Hamlin, 181.278
    David Ragan, 177.070

    Practice 2: 10-Lap Run 18 Drivers

    Kevin Harvick, 181.009
    Brad Keselowski, 180.460
    Erik Jones, 180.303
    Kyle Larson, 180.060
    Ryan Blaney, 179.801
    Kyle Busch, 179.714
    Clint Bowyer, 179.501
    Chase Elliott, 179.468
    Austin Dillon, 179.343
    Jamie McMurray, 179.265
    Martin Truex Jr, 179.071
    Denny Hamlin, 179.051
    Kurt Busch, 178.901
    Jimmie Johnson, 178.463
    Paul Menard, 178.437
    Darrell Wallace Jr, 177.534
    Kasey Kahne, 177.167
    Michael McDowell, 176.876

    Practice 3: 10-Lap Run 28 Drivers

    Kevin Harvick, 180.161
    Kyle Larson, 179.417
    Martin Truex Jr, 179.285
    Kyle Busch, 179.108
    Austin Dillon, 179.086
    Erik Jones, 178.611
    Denny Hamlin, 178.558
    Jamie McMurray, 178.545
    Brad Keselowski, 178.433
    Ryan Blaney, 178.429
    Jimmie Johnson, 178.262
    Paul Menard, 178.169
    Kurt Busch, 177.968
    Joey Logano, 177.944
    Alex Bowman, 177.785
    Clint Bowyer, 177.596
    Daniel Suarez, 177.459
    Aric Almirola, 177.398
    William Byron, 177.265
    Chase Elliott, 177.258
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr, 177.240
    Ryan Newman, 177.127
    Kasey Kahne, 176.297
    Chris Buescher, 176.123
    Ty Dillon, 175.848
    Michael McDowell, 175.802
    David Ragan, 175.484
    Darrell Wallace Jr, 174.170

  • macG31

    Guess ill see how fading Lupton works out for me..50% owned…might’ve been a pretty bad idea

    Edit: yeah, it was a bad idea

  • gje627

    For what it’s worth, I do my own Cup projections for each race. Since I’m not sure what RG rules are I’m only posting my Base Fantasy Points (FPts) projections (i.e. Finish Position FPts + Place Differential FPts).

    Regarding, Dominator FPts, (i.e. Fast Laps FPts + Laps Led FPts) I did indicate my projected likely primary dominators (Dom-1) and secondary dominators (Dom-2).

    Thus…. if anyone is interested….

    Driver Base FPts Rank Total Base FPTs Dominator
    —————————————- —————————————- ——————————- ———————-
    Denny Hamlin 1 55
    Chase Elliott 2 53
    Kevin Harvick 3 50 Dom-1
    Martin Truex Jr 4 46 Dom-1
    Clint Bowyer 5 44
    Jimmie Johnson 6 43
    Joey Logano 7 42 Dom-2
    Kyle Busch 8 40 Dom-1
    Ryan Blaney 8 40 Dom-2
    Brad Keselowski 10 39 Dom-2
    Aric Almirola 10 39
    Kyle Larson 12 37 Dom-1
    Alex Bowman 13 32
    Kurt Busch 14 31 Dom-2
    Erik Jones 15 30 Dom-2
    Ryan Newman 16 29
    Jamie McMurray 16 29
    Daniel Suarez 18 28
    Kasey Kahne 19 24
    William Byron 20 23
    Paul Menard 21 22
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr 21 22
    Austin Dillon 23 21
    Darrell Wallace Jr 23 21
    AJ Allmendinger 25 20
    Chris Buescher 26 12
    Cole Whitt 27 11
    Trevor Bayne 28 9
    Ty Dillon 28 9
    Michael McDowell 30 8
    Ross Chastain 30 8
    David Ragan 32 5
    Timmy Hill 32 5
    Reed Sorenson 34 4
    Matt DiBenedetto 35 0
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 36 -1
    Gray Gaulding 37 -2
  • someclevername

    Lost my MMA contest early so entered an Xfinity lineup – currently in 27th with 100 other people lol odd that with ZERO knowledge I end up in a train – guess they were obvious picks. Really need Vinnie Miller to move on up to the east side!

  • someclevername

    Ugh Lupton, really?

  • jaguar21

    @Cooper08 said...

    If interested here is a blog I posted for the race this weekend. Thanks
    Coop

    https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/coop-s-auto-club-400-preview-2428991

    Thanks for posting the link coop

  • depalma13

    Played one lineup today with no time to research. Literally just put my team together in five minutes at 4:30 today. Finished 16th in the Beast, 2nd in the Donut and 20th in the Slingshot.

  • someclevername

    @depalma13 said...

    Played one lineup today with no time to research. Literally just put my team together in five minutes at 4:30 today. Finished 16th in the Beast, 2nd in the Donut and 20th in the Slingshot.

    I think that might be the way to go – I had no idea and finished tied for 55th. *In the $8 Beast

  • gje627

    @jaguar21 said...

    Thanks for posting the link coop

    @Cooper08 Another great article, THANKS !!

    Bump the link: https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/coop-s-auto-club-400-preview-2428991

    Keep them coming !!

  • gje627

    @depalma13 said...

    Played one lineup today with no time to research. Literally just put my team together in five minutes at 4:30 today. Finished 16th in the Beast, 2nd in the Donut and 20th in the Slingshot.

    Congratulations

    Good luck tomorrow !!!

  • depalma13

    @gje627 said...

    Congratulations

    Good luck tomorrow !!!

    Thanks, You too

  • depalma13

    @someclevername said...

    I think that might be the way to go – I had no idea and finished tied for 55th. *In the $8 Beast

    You just have to make your team after qualifying. And that window is short.

  • someclevername

    Gray Gaulding qualifying 20th is funny.

  • Logan7777

    Elliott at 25th in last practice gives me no confidence.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    @Cooper08 Another great article, THANKS !!

    Bump the link: https://rotogrinders.com/blog-posts/coop-s-auto-club-400-preview-2428991

    Keep them coming !!

    Thanks, appreciate it.

  • gje627

    @billholler said...

    *their (at least 20 times)

    Damn man, give the guy a break. We all knew what he meant. It was a good article, end of story.

  • infy72

    @someclevername said...

    Gray Gaulding qualifying 20th is funny.

    So is Earnhardt at 23.

  • bittersweetmint

    @infy72 said...

    So is Earnhardt at 23.

    You guys know that 13 drivers didn’t take a qualifying lap, right?

  • infy72

    @bittersweetmint said...

    You guys know that 13 drivers didn’t take a qualifying lap, right?

    I’m aware. And it still amuses me.

  • rlmc8402

    Gotta throw that one in there just for kicks! Thanks Bill!

  • browningclay

    Really struggling this week.. I mean could this be the track Harvick doesn’t dominate or does it continue

  • Luctyl99

    Been doing some research.. no one seems to be on truex. Anybody here think he can lead quite a few laps to start this race?

  • mbunner23

    Hamlin/Byron or JJ/Suarez in cash…?

  • billholler

    @browningclay said...

    Really struggling this week.. I mean could this be the track Harvick doesn’t dominate or does it continue

    This is his track. This is the track Harvick said he had penciled in before the season began as the race that would secure his spot in the chase. As much as I want to fade him, it’s almost impossible. He was the fastest in practice, had by far the fastest 10 lap average and is once again starting far enough back to get you the place differential points. I know if he doesn’t finish in the top 5 there will be fools that come here and say they knew fading Harvick was the way to go. Yeah it’s only the way to go if you want to throw out a total gamble. There are no stats that suggest you should fade Harvick.

  • billholler

    @Luctyl99 said...

    Been doing some research.. no one seems to be on truex. Anybody here think he can lead quite a few laps to start this race?

    Just based on recent races here, one of the 2 guys on the front row should lead 50+ laps. Larson last year on the pole lead 110 laps, year before Harvick started 2nd and lead 142, year before Kurt Busch on the pole lead 65 while Harvick started 2nd and lead 34. Two fastest cars in last practice were Busch and Truex, both Toyotas. Only thing that scares me about Truex is Erik Jones in the 4th spot I expect him to push his JGR teammate when the green flag drops. Will Truex be fast enough to stay ahead of Busch?

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