NASCAR FORUM

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  • gje627

    Charlotte Motor Speedway

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Thursday, 2:35 PM (FS1)
    — Qualifying: Thursday, 7:15 PM (FS1)
    Practice 2: Saturday, 9:05 AM (FS1) cancelled – rain
    — Practice 3 (Happy Hour): Saturday, 11:05 AM (FS1)
    Race: Coca-Cola 600, Sunday, 6:00 PM (Fox)

    Race Details

    — 400 Laps, 600 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 100; Stage 2: Lap 101 – 200; Stage 3: Lap 201 – 300; Stage 4: Lap 301 – 400

    Charlotte Motor Speedway – Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018

    — 1.5 Mile, Quad-shaped Oval (24 degree bank turns, 5 degree bank straightaways)
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 4th of 23 Tracks (17.47 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 3rd of 23 Tracks (6.17 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 3rd of 23 Tracks (6.75 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 3rd of 23 Tracks (2.55 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 20th of 23 Tracks (40.05% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 10th of 23 Tracks (9.04% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 4th of 23 Tracks (8.68% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 5th of 23 Tracks (17.72% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes, Lead Changes, and Cautions standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race.

    Charlotte Motor Speedway – Comparable Tracks

    Atlanta Motor Speedway, Auto Club Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway, Kansas Speedway, Kentucky Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway.

    Last Three (3) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    — 10/8/2016: Jimmie Johnson (120.25 DK FPts) – Jimmie Johnson (96.9 FD FPts)
    — 5/28/2017: Martin Truex, Jr. (148.75 DK FPts) – Martin Truex, Jr. (103.8 FD FPts)
    — 10/8/2017: Kevin Harvick (121.25 DK FPts) – Martin Truex, Jr. (93.8 FD FPts)

    Race Data, News, Information, and Weather

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    Stephen Young – Rotogrinders Lead NASCAR Analyst
    Kevin Roth – Rotogrinders Chief Meteorologist

    Updated for brevity.

  • gje627

    @dbullsfan said...

    I haven’t looked at the weather closely but Doc seemed very confident on his pod that they would get the whole race in.

    That’s great news, Thanks !!

    Just yesterday, it seemed like racing this weekend through Tuesday would be highly unlikely.

    What a nice surprise.

  • rlmc8402

    @gje627 said...

    1. Does anyone here read/use the information in the NASCAR race header each week and do you find it useful?
    2. Is there other information you would like included that I presently don’t provide? Conversely, any information that should be deleted?
    3. Would it be better if this information were provided in a different place, so as to not overwhelm each page of the forum?
    4. To save space, several of the categories of information I provide above could be listed on a single line in paragraph format. Would it be better if I saved space on the page for categories like Race Details and Comparable Tracks, and simply put this information back-to-back on the same line rather than on separate lines.
    5. I calculate the track rankings and previous race fantasy points leaders myself. Other than that I just collect and post information from various sources. For the latter categories of information, would it better if I just posted links to this information and not posted the actual information here?

    First I love the header you post…I hope you continue with it…my comments”
    1. Yes I read it AND use it each week!
    2. Other info…you could post the winning LU for the up coming race?? :). Deleted info…anything that helps someone other than me :)
    3. I like it in the header!
    4. If it is easier to list it in paragraph format I’m good with that?
    5. I like your assessment AND the links?

    my $.02 for what it I worth! In all seriousness I love the info in the header but I understand the effort. My research has stepped up to several hours a week now vs an hour or two on Sunday morning in the past. Love the forum, everyone is helpful and knowledgeable!

  • Klemmentine

    Giving nascar a shot this weekend. Couple general questions:

    1) How big of a driver pool do you typically use if generating 150 lineups?
    2) How much do you rely on Vegas odds to help predict finish points?

    Thanks!

  • gje627

    @Touchole said...

    I think it’s perfect the way it is. I find it all useful.

    It’s amazing how much info you provide and the effort you put in. Appreciated.

    You’re welcome, thanks for the nice comments. Just ran across your post. Sorry about my late acknowledgment !!!

  • gje627

    @rlmc8402 said...

    First I love the header you post…I hope you continue with it…my comments”
    1. Yes I read it AND use it each week!
    2. Other info…you could post the winning LU for the up coming race?? :). Deleted info…anything that helps someone other than me :)
    3. I like it in the header!
    4. If it is easier to list it in paragraph format I’m good with that?
    5. I like your assessment AND the links?

    my $.02 for what it I worth! In all seriousness I love the info in the header but I understand the effort. My research has stepped up to several hours a week now vs an hour or two on Sunday morning in the past. Love the forum, everyone is helpful and knowledgeable!

    Thank you !!! Glad you enjoy the content.

    I totally agree with your remarks that there are a lot of helpful and knowledgeable people here….

    I’m always spouting-off with my own theories and ideas, but I learn a lot from others here too !!!

  • gje627

    @Klemmentine said...

    Giving nascar a shot this weekend. Couple general questions:

    1) How big of a driver pool do you typically use if generating 150 lineups?
    2) How much do you rely on Vegas odds to help predict finish points?

    Thanks!

    Speaking only for myself….

    Regarding your first question, your player pool will vary by track and by race. NASCAR is unique in that even though the fantasy rules don’t change week-to-week, the so-called “game-script” (“race-script”) does.

    Unlike football, basketball, hockey, and baseball to a lesser extent; NASCAR has no uniform race, track, or rules package (e.g. no standard number of minutes per game, no standard field or court size/dimensions, etc.).

    Thus in some races you need a lot of dominator points (laps led and fastest laps) and some races you rely on place differential points more….. Then there are the road courses, and the “Roval” which are completely different beasts…. Add to this the car package can change race-to-race (restrictor plates some weeks, rain tires and windshield wipers on road courses) and each week is almost a different sport.

    As far as your second question, I personally do not use Vegas odds at all in lineup construction.

    This for two (2) reasons….

    First, the better Vegas odds only project a driver’s chance at winning a race, but do nothing to help you figure out what finishing position they are likely to get. In this regard, they don’t consider starting position, which is particularly important in fantasy NASCAR as this is where opportunity is present.

    Compare starting position to targets for wide receivers in football, at-bats for MLB players, and usage rate for in NBA players….. Each separate starting position has its own unique ceiling and floor that can be calculated exactly as far as base points (finish position and place differential fantasy points). Similarly, dominator points can be pretty simply projected to a relatively accurate number, based on driver/equipment/team quality and starting position. Therefore, as stated previously, nothing in the Vegas odds will actually help you identify what fantasy opportunity is available to each different driver in a race.

    Not sure if the previous paragraph makes sense?

    But for me, unlike some other fantasy sports, I’ve never found much utility in incorporating Vegas odds into my projections.

    But this is just my opinion.

  • gje627

    FYI: Throughout the week, I always like to update the header in this forum based on schedule changes for race week.

    Today, I noticed that NASCAR appeared to add an additional practice for early tomorrow morning. Since I haven’t seen an announcement, I was wondering if anyone knows … what’s up?

    Regardless, I added the additional practice above…..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @Klemmentine said...

    Giving nascar a shot this weekend. Couple general questions:

    1) How big of a driver pool do you typically use if generating 150 lineups?
    2) How much do you rely on Vegas odds to help predict finish points?

    Thanks!

    My driver pool is typically 20-26 drivers depending on upside of drivers as it varies from race to race. I never look at odds and if I bet I would never bet on NASCAR as the odds are horrible.

  • dbullsfan

    @gje627 said...

    FYI: Throughout the week, I always like to update the header in this forum based on schedule changes for race week.

    Today, I noticed that NASCAR appeared to add an additional practice for early tomorrow morning. Since I haven’t seen an announcement, I was wondering if anyone knows … what’s up?

    Regardless, I added the additional practice above…..

    Probably to counter potential rain in the afternoon, just guessing tho

  • Toddalan2286

    @dbullsfan said...

    Probably to counter potential rain in the afternoon, just guessing tho

    I think the 9 am practice was originally scheduled. I set my dvr to record it on Wednesday.

  • dbullsfan

    @Toddalan2286 said...

    I think the 9 am practice was originally scheduled. I set my dvr to record it on Wednesday.

    It’s raining anyway so

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    @dbullsfan said...

    It’s raining anyway so

    Stopped raining for now, but it’s going to be on and off (more on) all day today. Tomorrow however is starting to look a little better.

  • futoo

    I’m new to NASCAR..trying to not give away money but advice online is minimal..is Harvick a must play starting 39? Should Busch have a lot of laps led?..any way to fit them both and have a chance? The only low end guys I’ve seen recommended are Suarez and allmindinger. Thanks all

  • gje627

    @futoo said...

    I’m new to NASCAR..trying to not give away money but advice online is minimal..is Harvick a must play starting 39? Should Busch have a lot of laps led?..any way to fit them both and have a chance? The only low end guys I’ve seen recommended are Suarez and allmindinger. Thanks all

    In NASCAR, no driver is ever a must-play due to variance, but if you want to consider anyone “must-plays” for tomorrow’s race the drivers likely would be Harvick and Kyle Busch; though if you plan to play multiple GPP lineups I would hesitate to include both in all your lineups.

  • kinger8705

    I feel like the xfinty prize pools are about to be as big as Euroleague was at the end of the season

  • gje627

    Given recent questions from some people playing NASCAR fantasy for the first time tomorrow, I thought I would share some notes regarding tomorrow’s race.

    The information below is pretty basic, so if you’re old-hat at NASCAR you may not find anything new here, but maybe it will help everyone put into proper context this “longest” race of the year….

    The Coca-Cola 600 is almost 20% (19.7%) and 100 miles longer than any other race in the 2018 season. Given these numbers, it’s no surprise the Charlotte Spring race has a high number of drivers who finish off the lead lap or don’t finish at all (DNF) due to mechanical issues or crashes.

    Thus, if you’re playing mutliple GPP lineups it would seem to be a good idea to diversify your lineups more than usual, because based on previous track and race data, you can expect between 6 and 8 drivers to finish DNF and between 23 and 25 drivers to finish off the lead lap.

    Since such a high number of drivers finish off the lead lap, including a value driver starting near the rear who finishes Top 25 could still easily be on a winning GPP lineup. Also, if we have one (1) primary dominator in the first half of the race, even if this driver (Kyle Busch, probably?) ends up a lap or two (2) down, or even DNF, he may still be on the winning GPP lineup because he was able to accumulate so many dominator points early.

    Interestingly, the only three (3) drivers in the Coca-Cola 600 who have started all 12 races this season and have not had a DNF are Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, and Darrell Wallace, Jr. No driver who has started all 12 races has finished on the lead lap in each race, but Joey Logano comes close finishing on the lead lap in 11 of 12 races. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are a close second, each finishing on the lead lap 10 times this season. For Kyle Busch and Harvick, these numbers also include one (1) DNF for each driver.

    The driver seemingly most likely to DNF/not finish on the lead lap is Corey LaJoie. In five (5) races this year, LaJoie has three (3) DNFs and no lead lap finishes. Should also note, this is Parker Kligerman’s first race of 2018.

    One final note, especially pertinent to dominator points. Tomorrow, we have one (1), maybe two (2) extra scheduled cautions (one (1) each for the end of Stage 1, 2, and 3, and also a likely competition caution around lap 30). Thus, with four (4) certain cautions, we may see a lot of shuffling in position throughout the race, including for the race lead.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Given recent questions from some people playing NASCAR fantasy for the first time tomorrow, I thought I would share some notes regarding tomorrow’s race.

    The information below is pretty basic, so if you’re old-hat at NASCAR you may not find anything new here, but maybe it will help everyone put into proper context this “longest” race of the year….

    The Coca-Cola 600 is almost 20% (19.7%) and 100 miles longer than any other race in the 2018 season. Given these numbers, it’s no surprise the Charlotte Spring race has a high number of drivers who finish off the lead lap or don’t finish at all (DNF) due to mechanical issues or crashes.

    Thus, if you’re playing mutliple GPP lineups it would seem to be a good idea to diversify your lineups more than usual, because based on previous track and race data, you can expect between 6 and 8 drivers to finish DNF and between 23 and 25 drivers to finish off the lead lap.

    Since such a high number of drivers finish off the lead lap, including a value driver starting near the rear who finishes Top 25 could still easily be on a winning GPP lineup. Also, if we have one (1) primary dominator in the first half of the race, even if this driver (Kyle Busch, probably?) ends up a lap or two (2) down, or even DNF, he may still be on the GPP lineup because he was able to accumulate so many dominator points early.

    Interestingly, the only three (3) drivers in the Coca-Cola 600 who have started all 12 races this season and have not had a DNF are Joey Logano, Alex Bowman, and Darrell Wallace, Jr. No driver who has started all 12 races has finished on the lead lap in each race, but Joey Logano comes close finishing on lead lap in 11 of 12 races. Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick are a close second, each finishing on lead lap 10 times this season. For Kyle Busch and Harvick, these numbers also include one (1) DNF for each driver.

    The driver seemingly most likely to DNF/not finish on the lead lap is Corey LaJoie. In five (5) races this year, LaJoie has three (3) DNFs and no lead lap finishes. Should also note, this is Parker Kligerman’s first race of 2018.

    One final note, especially pertinent to dominator points. Tomorrow, we have one (1), maybe two (2) extra scheduled cautions (one (1) each for the end of Stage 1, 2, and 3, and also a likely competition caution around lap 30). Thus, with four (4) certain cautions, we may see a lot of shuffling in position throughout the race, including for the race lead.

    Good note, while people typically hinge onto 1-2 cheap drivers, less than 5.5k this is a week to go a little deeper with them. You can already see from practice they put few laps down in order to save there engine. They don’t have the best equipment and will need to go 100-200 more miles than typical on that engine. LaJoie would be the scariest as you said since he has blown at least two engines recently, early in races.

  • gje627

    FYI 1: Practice and qualifying data below. Please note, Practice 2 cancelled due to rain so Practice 3 becomes Practice 2. Finally, data below is sorted by qualifying order.

    Practice and Qualifying Rank/Speed, Coca-Cola 600, 05/27/2018

    —-

    Driver P1 Rank P1 MPH P2 Rank P2 MPH Qual Rank Qual MPH
    ———————————- ——————- ——————- ——————- ——————- ——————- ——————-
    Kyle Busch 15 187.983 18 184.691 1 191.836
    Joey Logano 19 187.669 4 186.047 2 191.218
    Denny Hamlin 1 190.134 5 185.938 3 191.049
    Erik Jones 5 189.261 1 187.045 4 190.894
    Brad Keselowski 3 189.434 22 184.344 5 190.557
    Ryan Newman 16 187.918 15 184.811 6 190.201
    Jamie McMurray 24 186.942 10 185.071 7 189.940
    Ryan Blaney 2 189.673 3 186.104 8 189.893
    Aric Almirola 10 188.462 16 184.811 9 189.707
    Daniel Suarez 7 188.910 21 184.414 10 189.707
    Kyle Larson 9 188.838 2 186.664 11 188.943
    Austin Dillon 4 189.414 20 184.420 12 188.075
    Ricky Stenhouse Jr 12 188.252 23 184.338 13 188.844
    Paul Menard 29 185.950 8 185.459 14 188.805
    Martin Truex Jr 8 188.877 14 184.862 15 188.679
    Kurt Busch 20 187.520 7 185.663 16 188.363
    Matt Kenseth 27 186.290 30 182.457 17 187.983
    Chris Buescher 18 187.898 28 183.299 18 187.905
    David Ragan 31 185.561 29 182.766 19 187.526
    Ty Dillon 25 186.438 25 183.517 20 187.402
    William Byron 11 188.285 13 184.900 21 187.272
    Chase Elliott 6 189.062 12 185.008 22 187.110
    Jimmie Johnson 22 187.480 11 185.027 23 186.625
    Darrell Wallace Jr 30 185.835 19 184.477 24 185.816
    Ross Chastain 33 182.027 32 181.574 25 187.624
    Kasey Kahne 13 188.245 9 185.141 26 187.585
    Alex Bowman 21 187.513 24 183.886 27 187.493
    Clint Bowyer 17 187.905 6 185.688 28 187.279
    Michael McDowell 26 186.310 31 182.051 29 186.890
    AJ Allmendinger 23 187.337 26 183.511 30 186.716
    Matt DiBenedetto 32 184.237 27 183.318 31 186.047
    Parker Kligerman 28 186.002 33 180.929 32 185.103
    Corey Lajoie 34 181.555 34 179.952 33 183.150
    Gray Gaulding 35 180.367 36 179.671 34 183.138
    Landon Cassill 37 178.767 35 179.766 35 182.970
    Timmy Hill 39 177.591 40 176.120 36 180.222
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 36 179.051 39 176.887 37 178.974
    BJ McLeod 40 176.858 37 178.389 38 177.731
    Kevin Harvick 14 188.140 17 184.754 39 0.000
    JJ Yeley 38 177.977 38 177.912 40 0.000

    —-

    FYI 2: 10-lap averages below. Since drivers were only in qualifying trim during Practice 1, no drivers ran 10 consecutive laps. The list below includes all drivers who ran 10 consecutives laps in Practice 2 and includes rank and average speed.

    Practice 2 – 10 Lap Averages

    1) Erik Jones (184.579)
    2) Kyle Larson (184.524)
    3) Denny Hamlin (183.147)
    4) Chase Elliott (183.134)
    5) Joey Logano (183.105)
    6) Ryan Newman (182.853)
    7) Kevin Harvick (182.81)
    8) Martin Truex Jr (182.791)
    9) Clint Bowyer (182.628)
    10) Ryan Blaney (182.594)
    11) Brad Keselowski (182.433)
    12) Austin Dillon (182.326)
    13) Jamie McMurray (182.23)
    14) Aric Almirola (182.119)
    15) Kyle Busch (182.103)
    16) William Byron (182.05)
    17) Kurt Busch (182.012)
    18) Darrell Wallace Jr (181.732)
    19) Jimmie Johnson (181.556)
    20) Daniel Suarez (181.535)
    21) Alex Bowman (181.38)
    22) Ricky Stenhouse Jr (181.171)
    23) Kasey Kahne (181.075)
    24) Paul Menard (180.679)
    25) Michael McDowell (180.022)
    26) David Ragan (179.442)

  • futoo

    Thanks for the info guys! Any value drivers to look at?

  • gje627

    @futoo said...

    Thanks for the info guys! Any value drivers to look at?

    Kind of depends on how much money you need to save…. On the very low end, my recommendations in rank order are: Michael McDowell, Matt DiBenedetto, Landon Cassill, JJ Yeley, Ty Dillon, Gray Gaulding, David Ragan and Ross Chastain

    I will probably fade Corey LaJoie, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Parker Kligerman, Timmy Hill, and BJ McLeod altogether, unless I need to save some serious salary to fit other drivers.

  • gje627

    Actually, will probably fade Ty Dillon and David Ragan too (starting too high), and maybe JJ Yeley and Landon Cassill as well (terrible equipment this race/year)….

  • gje627

    Last post for awhile….

    Also, remember all drivers start the race on fresh tires moving forward; meaning no big advantage to Harvick (or Yeley)…..

    With that said, with 400 race laps Harvick could still be near the front and even be one of the dominators (plus place differential plays, of course) by the midway point.

  • depalma13

    Way to go Busch! Typical idiot.

  • gje627

    Okay, this is my last post for awhile….

    Kyle Busch just crashed in the Xfinity race….

    See my previous comments regarding no NASCAR must-plays and variance…. :)

  • gje627

    Very last post for awhile….. Promise this time !!!

    Erik Jones looks great on the track this weekend….

    BUT look at his haircut? … That’s not NASCAR !!

    Points docked….

    Full-fade… (JK)…. :)

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