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  • gje627

    Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 12:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Friday, 4:45 PM (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 11:00 AM (NBC Sports App)
    — Practice: Saturday, 1:30 PM (CNBC)
    — Race: Bank of America Roval 400, Sunday 2:00 PM (NBC)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 109 Laps, 248.52 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 25; Stage 2: Lap 26 – 50; Stage 3: Lap 51 – 109
    — Expected Fuel Window – Unknown (possibly TBA but in Stage 1 and 2 it is likely that pit strategy (especially pitting just prior to stage-end) will be much more important than the fuel window. Additionally, in all 3 stages tire wear will also be very important in determining when teams pit.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018

    — 2.28 mile road course/oval; 24-degree banking in oval; 0- to 4-degree banking road course; potential/unknown negative camber issues in road-course sections (flat, right turns as well as left turns) versus oval portions (only left turns like traditional races… FWIW/IMO , since NASCAR is experimenting with the bizarre, it may have been fun to reverse the oval portion to only run right hand turns).
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Cautions: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International

    Note: It should go without saying, but the Charlotte Motor Speedway oval/intermediate course is not an applicable comparison to the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL even though a large portion of each lap will be run on the oval. This is really not due to the fact that the whole race will not be run on the oval, but car set-up will be totally different than any other any Cup race at Charlotte; and all other intermediate tracks in this same regard.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — NA

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    — NA

    Most Relevant Primary Data for Fantasy Race Analysis (preliminary)

    Upcoming Cup Series ROVAL race: Practice/Qualifying Speed/Position, especially including 10-lap averages.
    Upcoming Xfinity Charlotte ROVAL race: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %, Laps Led, Fastest Laps, Place Differential.
    Road Courses: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %, Green Flag Passes (Sonoma more important than Watkins Glen), Quality Passes (Sonoma more important than Watkins Glen), Laps Led, Fastest Laps (Watkins Glen more important than Sonoma), Pass Differential, Place Differential, Finishing Position, Driver Rating, Practice/Qualifying Speed/Position (Watkins Glen more important than Sonoma). All data over prior 4-years.
    Current Playoff Standings: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. have advanced to 2nd round; Kevin Harvick simply needs to start the race to advance; Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, and Denny Hamlin all make it to the 2nd round under different scenarios (with the latter drivers almost certainly needing a ROVAL win); remaining drivers are not in the playoffs.

    Most Relevant Secondary Data for Fantasy Race Analysis (preliminary)

    Daytona International Speedway/Talladega International Speedway, Pocono Raceway: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %.
    YTD (all 2018 races): All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %.
    EDIT: Driver recent performance at short, flat tracks, particularly with difficult/unique turns compared to other turns on the same track (this impacts car set-up, per EhhTimmay suggestion below)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Excited for this race like many! Thanks for doing a thread. My early thoughts are that the race on Saturday will determine how hard the drivers race on Sunday. Plenty of wrecks Saturday and I feel the majority will back off a little bit on Sunday. The drivers who are needing a win to advance in playoffs and ones who will benefit from a win will be more agrresive. Pit strategy will also be key. I expect the drivers who have clinched or near the top will stay out the first stage to get stage points. While drivers looking for a win will pit with 2-3 laps left at end of stage to gain track position. As far as lineup construction I am thinking taking 3-4 drivers starting 20th on back and 2-3 who could potentially win. Might do some lineups similar to restrictor plates were all are 20th on back. Another thing to look at on Saturday is can you pass on the race track or will attrition and strategy determine you being able to pass. At this point I feel all drivers are in play this week making lineups unique and I also feel it’s not wise to go heavy on particular drivers within your player pool. Thoughts will change over next couple days. Your thoughts?

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Excited for this race like many! Thanks for doing a thread. My early thoughts are that the race on Saturday will determine how hard the drivers race on Sunday. Plenty of wrecks Saturday and I feel the majority will back off a little bit on Sunday. The drivers who are needing a win to advance in playoffs and ones who will benefit from a win will be more agrresive. Pit strategy will also be key. I expect the drivers who have clinched or near the top will stay out the first stage to get stage points. While drivers looking for a win will pit with 2-3 laps left at end of stage to gain track position. As far as lineup construction I am thinking taking 3-4 drivers starting 20th on back and 2-3 who could potentially win. Might do some lineups similar to restrictor plates were all are 20th on back. Another thing to look at on Saturday is can you pass on the race track or will attrition and strategy determine you being able to pass. At this point I feel all drivers are in play this week making lineups unique and I also feel it’s not wise to go heavy on particular drivers within your player pool. Thoughts will change over next couple days. Your thoughts?

    Nice Coop….

    Absolutely, pretty much agree with everything you said…..

    In fact, I was just writing the comments below to post when I saw your analysis.

    Originally, I wasn’t planning to play the inaugural NASCAR gimmick race of the century… uhhh, I mean the “ROVAL” — maybe next year they will choose a 1-mile dirt track instead :) — but after last week at Richmond, where I got stuck playing all my crappy place-holder lineups when my computer crashed too close to lock, I changed my mind (I do this in NBA a handful of times each year too)….

    Anyways, the header above is a work-in-progress.

    Regarding the races this weekend, while I realize NASCAR is no longer en vogue (yes, that’s technically correct…. I’m so international !!!… only the red-necks say “in vogue”) given the uncertainty of the race, this is likely to be a weekend with no ties for first and a random $25,000 winner on DK so everyone here may have an equal chance to win !!!

    Would love to hear anyone who reads this on how best to approach this race as it should be a wild one !!!

  • EhhTimmay

    This track seems more similar to the Mid Ohio track than it does a Watkins Glen, Sonoma. A lot more slower turns with the longer straightaways. I’d probably have to watch the Nationwide race to even have a clue what to do for the cup race.

    I think there are a lot more passing zones here as opposed to a normal road course.

  • EhhTimmay

    And since I feel like this will play a huge part in this race:

    “Penalty for short-cutting any part of the course: If you short-cut the course (ie: blow through the chicane), the car must serve a pass-through penalty on pit road. If the infraction occurs on the final lap, a 30-second penalty will be levied.”

  • gje627

    @EhhTimmay said...

    This track seems more similar to the Mid Ohio track than it does a Watkins Glen, Sonoma. A lot more slower turns with the longer straightaways. I’d probably have to watch the Nationwide race to even have a clue what to do for the cup race.

    I think there are a lot more passing zones here as opposed to a normal road course.

    Agree.

    We just don’t have any general Cup series Mid-Ohio data for how races play out (game/race script). We also don’t have any Cup series data with large, heavy, high-horsepower stock car driver data (i.e. Harvick-, Truex-, specific data at Mid-Ohio) to compare to the ROVAL.

    Specifically, I totally agree with your other analyses too (I think, that is if I understand correctly).

    Meaning, corner entering will be important (like Sonoma) but straightaway speed (like Watkins Glen) will also be very important. Hence the data I suggest using in my header, including what we can learn from the Xfinity race like I mentioned above.

    So…..

    Looks like we totally agree !!!

  • EhhTimmay

    @gje627 said...

    Specifically, I totally agree with your other analyses too (I think, that is if I understand correctly).

    Meaning, corner entering will be important (like Sonoma) but straightaway speed (like Watkins Glen) will also be very important. Hence the data I suggest using in my header, including what we can learn from the Xfinity race like I mentioned above.

    If I had to pick one other track to look at data or history for it’d probably be Martinsville. You have turns 8 and 12 at the ROVAL that act like the corners from Martinsville with very little bank, and then whoever can get off the corners the best into the straightaway has the distinct advantage going into the next turn (Your Watkins Glen Example).

    Other than that, I have nothing.

  • gje627

    @EhhTimmay said...

    If I had to pick one other track to look at data or history for it’d probably be Martinsville. You have turns 8 and 12 at the ROVAL that act like the corners from Martinsville with very little bank, and then whoever can get off the corners the best into the straightaway has the distinct advantage going into the next turn (Your Watkins Glen Example).

    Other than that, I have nothing.

    Again, great thoughts.

    I’ll look into difficult corners on short, flat tracks and see what the data says and then report back.

    If you have any other ideas, please post. :)

    Thanks for the input.

  • jt77316

    Anyone from RG attending?

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

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    @jt77316 said...

    Anyone from RG attending?

    Mark and I will be there. Going to sweat the King of the Diamond on Friday night at the Carolina Ale House downtown Charlotte if anyone wants to come hang out.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 206

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #32

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    While I think Saturday makes a little difference, I don’t see how this race isn’t crazy. We’ve never run here in a large pack, we’ve never really run anywhere like this track in a large pack, and it’s a cutoff race for the playoffs. Not to mention all the strategy and likely pit penalties we’re going to have this week. It’s going to be a crazy week, and a very high variance week. Bankroll management.

  • celtics2448

    Might be important to factor in the playoff situations with Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin. Despite all the wrecked cars in testing, Goodyear decided to bring a tire that is completely untested due to the almost non existent grip levels opening turns of the course. With the expectations that this is going to be a demolition derby, do the Rick Ware, TriStar, StarComm, Premium cars run at full capacity and if they do, is there enough room on the racetrack for them to get out of the way of the leaders? Doesn’t seem like it. Also, in comparison to previous years there are a ton of younger drivers in the field, while it may be instinct to gas it up entering the backstretch and entering the frontstrech (see William Byron’s wreck in testing) , it also doesn’t really seem plausible that you can run full throttle without losing control entering the chicane and turn 1. Basically, i’m treating this like Talladega and Daytona for DFS purposes.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @celtics2448 said...

    Might be important to factor in the playoff situations with Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin. Despite all the wrecked cars in testing, Goodyear decided to bring a tire that is completely untested due to the almost non existent grip levels opening turns of the course. With the expectations that this is going to be a demolition derby, do the Rick Ware, TriStar, StarComm, Premium cars run at full capacity and if they do, is there enough room on the racetrack for them to get out of the way of the leaders? Doesn’t seem like it. Also, in comparison to previous years there are a ton of younger drivers in the field, while it may be instinct to gas it up entering the backstretch and entering the frontstrech (see William Byron’s wreck in testing) , it also doesn’t really seem plausible that you can run full throttle without losing control entering the chicane and turn 1. Basically, i’m treating this like Talladega and Daytona for DFS purposes.

    FYI, Byron lost his brakes during his accident, wasn’t a driving issue on his part.

  • gje627

    A lot of really smart people are saying don’t play math and don’t play the numbers this weekend….

    But instead play variance….

    But the last time I checked….

    Variance is math/numbers…. (Abbreviated History: math —> probability —> statistics —> variance)… with plenty of other non-relevant (for our purposes) math history in between…

    Nevertheless, math is my style…. And I’m absolutely biased….

    So…. (drumbeat please)….

    I would argue the complete opposite and PLAY MATH THIS WEEKEND MORE THAN EVER !!!.

    I.e. will anybody be stacking the ever-popular five of the six Cole Whitt, J.J. Yeley, Landon Cassill, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Timmy Hill combo? …. I think not. If so, that’s math !!!

    What about building a lineup with all drivers starting 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6…. Or alternatively, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 40?

    If not, that’s math too….

    With that said, one thing is a given, that being some drivers are better than others, and all of these “better” drivers have better equipment than the Timmy Hill class of drivers.

    Furthermore, you can’t predict who will DNF and who won’t.

    So why worry? It’s futile….

    If anyone thinks this is going to be total wreck-fest, I’ll go the under on the crowd’s median DNF number…..

    These are professional drivers, and drivers needing to get into the next round of the playoffs. They will drive accordingly, and be cautious where necessary. Drivers like Truex, Jr., Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and even Kevin Harvick (I assume Harvick is safe) may be more aggressive to pad their points going into the next round, but I absolutely doubt all these guys will be stupid.

    Regarding my bold proclamations?

    In a long-ago-archived forum (from this year, though)…. I gave a mathematical hint (okay, more than a hint) regarding the best way to play these races, to increase your odds of cashing…. At least in DK GPPs (as that’s all I play, meaning no qualifers, gimmick contests, etc… and certainly not the crappy-rule, sh**ty payout FD contests).

    Anyways, $10.00 and a “happy thought” to anyone who finds the “math trick”…. Hint: it’s three-part, the first part is super-simple, especially if you’re one of the few who follow my long-winded, most-often obnoxious posts…. The second and third parts are little more “hidden” but really just flow from the first….

    Nonetheless, there are no guarantees this weekend, as always in NASCAR; meaning these math hints will only increase your probability, but in no way ensure… VICTORY !!!

    I will say, though, more so than any other fantasy sport, the probability of certain events taking place still rules the day more often than not in NASCAR, this based on track, drivers, etc.

    Certainly, if you think I’m talking smack, call me out; mathematically that is.

    But if math was able to guide to the Hubble Space Telescope, with images so far out in the universe… images based on light years traveled back to earth… that now allow us to see a galaxy (yes, a “galaxy far-far-away”) as it looked 13 billion years ago….

    Certainly, predicting the fantasy points in an admitted likely high-variance NASCAR race with 40 drivers can’t be that difficult….

    Right?

    :)

    P.S: To summarize my overly-long, somewhat off-putting, post, manage/recognize variance where you can, and the NASCAR gods will reward you this weekend. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Is this what you are looking for?

    Starting Position 1-2, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 2-3, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 3-4, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 4-5, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 5-6, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 6-7, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 7-8, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 8-9, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 9-10, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 10-11, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 11-12, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 12-13, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 13-14, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 14-15, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 15-16, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 16-17, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 17-18, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 18-19, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 19-20, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 20-21, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 21-22, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 22-23, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 23-24, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 24-25, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 25-26, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 26-27, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 27-28, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 28-29, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 29-30, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 30-31, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 31-32, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 32-33, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 33-34, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 34-35, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 35-36, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 36-37, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 37-38, use no more than 0-1 drivers

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Is this what you are looking for?

    Starting Position 1-2, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 2-3, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 3-4, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 4-5, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 5-6, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 6-7, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 7-8, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 8-9, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 9-10, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 10-11, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 11-12, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 12-13, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 13-14, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 14-15, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 15-16, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 16-17, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 17-18, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 18-19, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 19-20, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 20-21, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 21-22, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 22-23, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 23-24, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 24-25, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 25-26, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 26-27, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 27-28, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 28-29, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 29-30, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 30-31, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 31-32, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 32-33, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 33-34, use no more than 0-2 drivers
    Starting Position 34-35, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 35-36, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 36-37, use no more than 0-1 drivers
    Starting Position 37-38, use no more than 0-1 drivers

    Kaboom !!

    Right idea, wrong numbers for this race.

    Part 2 and 3?

    P.S. Is that plagiarism, or did i only “innovate” with my numbers from a prior race? :)

    JK, by the way…. **:)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Kaboom !!

    Right idea, wrong numbers for this race.

    Part 2 and 3?

    P.S. Is that plagiarism, or did i only “innovate” with my numbers from a prior race? :)

    JK, by the way…. **:)

    I think it was your numbers for Sonoma, I looked through a couple threads and I think that was the one I got it from.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I think it was your numbers for Sonoma, I looked through a couple threads and I think that was the one I got it from.

    Cool…

    You’re still smarter than me.

    I just do math. :)

  • wscooby

    @gje627 said...

    Kaboom !!

    Right idea, wrong numbers for this race.

    Part 2 and 3?

    P.S. Is that plagiarism, or did i only “innovate” with my numbers from a prior race? :)

    JK, by the way…. **:)

    Is part 2 or 3 intergrating the “chaos” math I think you have referred to a few times? If so I would be willing to try it out if only I understood it, LOL. It has worked for you, hoping it could work for me.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Preece to the 47 next year and Hemric to the 31. Assuming Truex signs with the 19 that leaves 1,41 and 95 as the big openings. Leaves Ku Busch and Suarez most likely landing two of those rides while McMurray, DiBeniditto, Bayne and Allmendinger are looking for rides to.

    Also, A majority of Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams recently voted to endorse a ’19 rules package related to the so-called All-Star Package that was tested in May, according to sources. The exact number of races it will be used for was unclear, but it is said to be most events at 1.5- to 2-mile tracks, which would be around 20 of the sport’s 38 races.

    The All-Star Package that was tested at that event this year at Charlotte Motor Speedway is a set of aerodynamic and engine rules that intentionally slow down the cars in a bid to encourage closer racing.

    Teams get to vote on major rules changes as part of the charter system.

    A source said there were dissenting votes, but that the majority endorsed the package.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Five minutes into practice and two spins, Almirola minor damage and Hamlin goes over a blue turtle and messed up front of car fairly bad…..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Now Stenhouse off track doesn’t look like damage, Wallace spins a second time hitting signs, minor damage…Ky Busch drove fast, most appear to be taking easy, and he was all over track and missed one of turns which would have been a penalty…

    All this within first ten minutes..

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Earnhardt and A Dillion turned around…

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Also, A majority of Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series teams recently voted to endorse a ’19 rules package related to the so-called All-Star Package that was tested in May, according to sources.

    Good information. Thanks.

    I understand with rule changes teams are required to vote, but I think the outcome was a foregone conclusion as the typically fast teams (Kyle Busch, Harvick, etc.) likely voted no and the remaining teams voted yes because it will increase their competitiveness. I.e., since most teams are slow relative to the big-three/four, most teams undoubtedly voted for the new rules package for selected tracks.

    Importantly, this will also make prior year race data a little tricky to work with, as place differential will undoubtedly become the new key metric at all the tracks under the new rules package and dominator points will be more spread out.

    I agree that this will be great for the fans (myself included), but it’s really going to make predicting races much more difficult, as all drivers for the most part will have almost identical speed in their cars…..

    Personally, to solve this issue, rather than changes the cars I would advocate for a drastic change in tracks…. I’m sure everyone here knows what I’m getting at because I pretty much b*tch about this every week…..

    But hey, in equally huge news, we have a new NASCAR president…. Steve Phelps so my days of complaining about Brian France are long gone. For now, I’m going to reserve judgment on Phelps, but I fear he’s walking into a snake pit.

    Oops, I was just thinking…. Brian France is chairman and CEO, and his fate is still TBD….

  • jt77316

    @stevietpfl said...

    Mark and I will be there. Going to sweat the King of the Diamond on Friday night at the Carolina Ale House downtown Charlotte if anyone wants to come hang out.

    Hmmm. Come up to Cabarrus Brewing Company for Oktoberfest!

  • gje627

    Cup race DNF over/under 7.5….

    Thoughts?

    BTW, the 7.5 number is based on my calculations….

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