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  • gje627

    Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 12:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Friday, 4:45 PM (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 11:00 AM (NBC Sports App)
    — Practice: Saturday, 1:30 PM (CNBC)
    — Race: Bank of America Roval 400, Sunday 2:00 PM (NBC)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 109 Laps, 248.52 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 25; Stage 2: Lap 26 – 50; Stage 3: Lap 51 – 109
    — Expected Fuel Window – Unknown (possibly TBA but in Stage 1 and 2 it is likely that pit strategy (especially pitting just prior to stage-end) will be much more important than the fuel window. Additionally, in all 3 stages tire wear will also be very important in determining when teams pit.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018

    — 2.28 mile road course/oval; 24-degree banking in oval; 0- to 4-degree banking road course; potential/unknown negative camber issues in road-course sections (flat, right turns as well as left turns) versus oval portions (only left turns like traditional races… FWIW/IMO , since NASCAR is experimenting with the bizarre, it may have been fun to reverse the oval portion to only run right hand turns).
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Cautions: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International

    Note: It should go without saying, but the Charlotte Motor Speedway oval/intermediate course is not an applicable comparison to the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL even though a large portion of each lap will be run on the oval. This is really not due to the fact that the whole race will not be run on the oval, but car set-up will be totally different than any other any Cup race at Charlotte; and all other intermediate tracks in this same regard.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — NA

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    — NA

    Most Relevant Primary Data for Fantasy Race Analysis (preliminary)

    Upcoming Cup Series ROVAL race: Practice/Qualifying Speed/Position, especially including 10-lap averages.
    Upcoming Xfinity Charlotte ROVAL race: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %, Laps Led, Fastest Laps, Place Differential.
    Road Courses: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %, Green Flag Passes (Sonoma more important than Watkins Glen), Quality Passes (Sonoma more important than Watkins Glen), Laps Led, Fastest Laps (Watkins Glen more important than Sonoma), Pass Differential, Place Differential, Finishing Position, Driver Rating, Practice/Qualifying Speed/Position (Watkins Glen more important than Sonoma). All data over prior 4-years.
    Current Playoff Standings: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. have advanced to 2nd round; Kevin Harvick simply needs to start the race to advance; Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, and Denny Hamlin all make it to the 2nd round under different scenarios (with the latter drivers almost certainly needing a ROVAL win); remaining drivers are not in the playoffs.

    Most Relevant Secondary Data for Fantasy Race Analysis (preliminary)

    Daytona International Speedway/Talladega International Speedway, Pocono Raceway: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %.
    YTD (all 2018 races): All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %.
    EDIT: Driver recent performance at short, flat tracks, particularly with difficult/unique turns compared to other turns on the same track (this impacts car set-up, per EhhTimmay suggestion below)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • Deltfish

    I found it on CNBC. Directv channel 355 if anyone interested

  • Deltfish

    Spencer Gallagher just destroyed his car in qualifying

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    but I think it’s safe to say that the aggressive drivers have a higher probability (vs normal week) of having issues this week.

    Again, not necessarily totally disagreeing, but particularly on this course an “aggressive driver” is unlikely to crash solo, but instead take out one or more other drivers who are not being aggressive (remember, aggressive drivers are only aggressive when they are running around other drivers and not when they are cruising up front all alone, and this is definitely something that can’t be seen during practice); meaning how do you predict which “safe/timid” drivers they will take out?

    This same reasoning also applies to cars with mechanical issues who crash and take out other drivers. For example, see Kevin Harvick blowing a tire last week (technically a mechanical issue and crashing (yes, this is a crash) and completely taking out Erik Jones….

    Like I said before…..

    “Blah, blah… blah, blah, blah… trying to predict who DNFs is futile, but trying to predict how many is not.”

    EDIT: Thus while aggressive drivers may cause wrecks, timid drivers get caught -up in wrecks. Either way, both types of drivers are generally finished for the day in a race like this…. The moral of my story is therefore, I would rather play fantasy with aggressive drivers in my lineup instead of timid ones.

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    For those playing xfinity, Chastain said he will drop to back and ride around.

  • gje627

    While sometimes I get frustrated by the lack of participation in the NASCAR forums, one thing that’s nice for me is since there so little participation I really don’t feel too guilty about writing long-winded posts or posting a lot data or analytics. With that said…..

    While really indicative of nothing, the table below provides a cursory look at what could be deemed the association between more-or-less aggressive drivers and the chances they will DNF. Importantly, this would be a preliminary look included in a more in-depth study with statistical/mathematical integrity on the issue, so please don’t assume I’m drawing any conclusions to the question of whether you should play aggressive or non-aggressive drivers in fantasy.

    With that said, it’s mostly a FYI table and should interpreted with the a grain of salt and the usual caveats….

    Still fun though….:)

    NOTE: To capture younger drivers and rookies (and recent year rookies) all drivers who completed at least 10 races from 2016 to 2018 are included in the table below. Thus total drivers included are 55 and total races are 100 (through Richmond, 9/22/2018). “Rk” below stands for “Rank”.

    2016 to 2018: Driver DNF and DK / FD Fantasy Points Average Rank

    Driver Total Races Total DNFs % Races DNF Avg DK FPts Rk Avg FD FPts Rk Rk Highest DNF % Rk Best Avg DK FPts Fin Rk Best Avg FD FPts Fin
    —————————— —— —- —— ——- —— ——- —— ——
    A.J. Allmendinger 100 15 15.00% 20.65 20.46 21 26 27
    Austin Dillon 100 10 10.00% 18.74 17.70 49 17 18
    Brad Keselowski 100 13 13.00% 14.06 13.60 29 4 4
    Chase Elliott 100 10 10.00% 14.70 14.25 49 7 7
    Chris Buescher 100 11 11.00% 22.26 22.43 40 33 34
    Clint Bowyer 100 10 10.00% 17.42 17.32 49 13 14
    David Ragan 100 11 11.00% 23.58 24.34 40 37 36
    Denny Hamlin 100 13 13.00% 14.80 13.92 29 8 6
    Jamie McMurray 100 12 12.00% 18.98 17.63 35 19 17
    Jimmie Johnson 100 15 15.00% 16.27 15.95 21 10 10
    Joey Logano 100 9 9.00% 14.67 13.88 53 6 5
    Kevin Harvick 100 11 11.00% 10.30 10.93 40 1 1
    Kurt Busch 100 12 12.00% 16.48 14.89 35 11 9
    Kyle Busch 100 11 11.00% 10.91 11.56 40 2 2
    Kyle Larson 100 12 12.00% 14.46 14.54 35 5 8
    Martin Truex, Jr. 100 15 15.00% 11.28 11.93 21 3 3
    Paul Menard 100 13 13.00% 20.99 20.18 29 27 26
    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 100 15 15.00% 20.63 19.78 21 25 25
    Ryan Blaney 100 11 11.00% 19.68 18.36 40 23 20
    Ryan Newman 100 10 10.00% 18.81 17.46 49 18 15
    Matt DiBenedetto 99 21 21.21% 25.77 26.85 11 44 42
    Kasey Kahne 97 12 12.37% 19.06 18.71 33 20 23
    Michael McDowell 95 10 10.53% 22.18 22.41 47 30 33
    Aric Almirola 93 11 11.83% 18.73 18.55 38 16 21
    Landon Cassill 93 10 10.75% 23.71 25.15 45 38 37
    Trevor Bayne 89 12 13.48% 21.17 20.52 28 28 28
    Matt Kenseth 83 10 12.05% 16.02 16.11 34 9 11
    Ty Dillon 75 8 10.67% 20.33 20.91 46 24 29
    Danica Patrick 73 15 20.55% 22.23 22.12 14 32 32
    Cole Whitt 72 15 20.83% 25.33 26.88 12 41 43
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 69 17 24.64% 29.12 31.19 6 51 51
    Reed Sorenson 68 14 20.59% 28.82 31.15 13 49 50
    Daniel Suarez 64 8 12.50% 19.19 17.61 32 22 16
    Erik Jones 64 11 17.19% 17.77 16.98 18 14 13
    Dale Earnhardt, Jr. 54 11 20.37% 19.09 18.65 15 21 22
    Corey LaJoie 50 12 24.00% 26.86 28.64 8 47 46
    Gray Gaulding 49 12 24.49% 28.92 30.04 7 50 48
    Regan Smith 40 7 17.50% 24.90 25.98 17 40 40
    Alex Bowman 38 2 5.26% 18.58 18.13 55 15 19
    Brian Scott 36 5 13.89% 26.58 27.36 27 45 44
    Carl Edwards 36 6 16.67% 16.67 16.28 19 12 12
    Casey Mears 36 3 8.33% 25.69 25.56 54 43 38
    Greg Biffle 36 7 19.44% 22.22 21.64 16 31 30
    Michael Annett 35 4 11.43% 26.77 28.97 39 46 47
    Bubba Wallace 32 5 15.63% 23.34 23.63 20 36 35
    Timmy Hill 31 9 29.03% 29.61 31.74 2 53 53
    Josh Wise 28 8 28.57% 31.54 33.39 3 55 55
    Ross Chastain 28 4 14.29% 24.86 26.14 25 39 41
    Tony Stewart 28 4 14.29% 21.79 19.43 25 29 24
    William Byron 28 6 21.43% 22.75 21.64 10 34 31
    Joey Gase 20 7 35.00% 28.50 30.25 1 48 49
    B.J. McLeod 19 2 10.53% 29.26 31.47 47 52 52
    Derrike Cope 17 4 23.53% 31.00 32.82 9 54 54
    J.J. Yeley 14 4 28.57% 25.64 27.50 3 42 45
    D.J. Kennington 12 3 25.00% 23.33 25.58 5 35 39

    NOTE: Correction to previous. Temporary removal of table was not due to a calculation error. Instead, I mislabeled two columns which may have led to confusion about what the data below stated. Re-labeled columns to make more accurate.

  • Krnich

    What’s the best place to find any xfinity drivers that have to start at the rear today

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    One lap and we have our first casualty, not from a wreck but mechanical…20% owned Labee…

    Edit..looks like he only lost a lap..

  • gje627

    99% certain this is right….

    According to my calculations, this is the new starting order for tomorrow’s Cup race. Importantly, the qualifying position (DK and FD “scored from” and official NASCAR position is in parenthesis). Hamlin, Jones, Kesolowski to backup cars; Smith engine change.

    Also important, this is preliminary and could change before tomorrow’s race, but the below should be correct through all on-track (practice/qualifying) activities….

    EDIT: Regarding the drivers going to the back but being scored from their qualifying positions, I added my recommendations. Also, changed my recommendation for Regan Smith to fade with confidence from “who cares.” The reason for this change is primarily because his salary is somewhat high, at least on DK, and that’s the only place I play NASCAR.

    1. Kurt Busch (1)
    2. AJ Allmendinger (2)
    3. Alex Bowman (3)
    4. Chase Elliott (4)
    5. Kyle Larson (5)
    6. Jimmie Johnson (6)
    7. Clint Bowyer (7)
    8. Jamie McMurray (8)
    9. Ryan Blaney (9)
    10. Chris Buescher (10)
    11. Daniel Hemric (11)
    12. Martin Truex Jr (13)
    13. Kyle Busch (14)
    14. Joey Logano (15)
    15. Trevor Bayne (16)
    16. Daniel Suarez (17)
    17. Michael McDowell (18)
    18. Kevin Harvick (19)
    19. Aric Almirola (20)
    20. William Byron (21)
    21. Paul Menard (22)
    22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr (23)
    23. Austin Dillon (24)
    24. Ty Dillon (26)
    25. Matt DiBenedetto (28)
    26. Ryan Newman (29)
    27. David Ragan (30)
    28. Justin Marks (31)
    29. Cole Whitt (33)
    30. Ross Chastain (35)
    31. JJ Yeley (36)
    32. Jeffrey Earnhardt (37)
    33. Landon Cassill (38)
    34. Stanton Barrett (39)
    35. Timmy Hill (40)
    36. Brad Keselowski (25) — gje627 recommendation – play with confidence
    37. Erik Jones (12) — gje627 recommendation – fade with confidence
    38. Denny Hamlin (27) — gje627 recommendation – play with caution
    39. Bubba Wallace (34) — gje627 recommendation – fade with confidence
    40. Regan Smith (32) — gje627 recommendation – fade with confidence

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Lot of Roval hype….after one race anticlimactic results…very little opportunity to pass, drivers seemed content to ride around, not only was the passing difficult the cars were not even close to each other after 2-3 laps…

    NASCAR pulled back the wall were Bubba and Jones tore up cars…drivers wanted that wall there because they felt it would make course easier and provide huge advantage to better cars coming out of it…since wall moved back very few accidents on entire course in NASCAR final practice and xfinity race…my solution, meat halfway between original placement and placement were it was in final practice and xfinity race.

    Definitely won’t be playing restrictor race strategy tomorrow. Track position is key, probably even more important than other two road courses. It is going to be very difficult for Kes and Hamlin to get to front without playing strategy. Problem for them is they are starting far enough back that there will be several other drivers trying similar strategy who are starting in much better position than them. They will both be popular due to upside but at there price there will be lower owned drivers starting in front of them that have slightly less upside but allow you to have better overall roster. Lots of decisions to make….

  • gje627

    Interesting factoid….

    But in the 28 road courses at Sonoma and Watkins Glen between 2005 and 2018, no driver officially starting in positions 27th or 28th has ever finished top 6 in DK FPts. Obviously this doesn’t include salary considerations (saving salary and rostering a cheap driver who exceeds expectations, doesn’t finish top 6, but is on the winning lineup by virtue of doing “pretty well” and being cheap….)

    But, it does include Denny Hamlin, officially starting/being scored from 27th. Also, Denny has a “higher” salary so my qualifications in parenthesis above are not relevant in his case.

    Further problems for Hamlin tomorrow. He was horrible in the first two practices and qualifying, went to a back-up car after wrecking in Practice 1, damaged his backup car in Practice 3 and totally jacked-up the alignment.

    He doesn’t have a third backup car, but conceivably he could use a teammate’s car.

    Still, full fade for me. If you do play, certainly do so with caution…..

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Lot of Roval hype….after one race anticlimactic results…

    So some here who set the over/under of 39 DNFs in the Cup race didn’t find supporting data in the Xfinity race?

    Sarcasm, and “JK”…. :)

    No Coop, don’t think this was you who said it would be a complete wreck-fest and…..

    Yes, a shorter race, lighter/lower horsepower cars than Cup cars (but the same number of stages that would encourage aggressive driving near stage end and at race-end), and of course, yes, since everyone’s initial predictions they moved the barrier in the most troublesome part (chicane) of the track….

    But for the 1,000 reasons I stated previously I’m still going with my universally unaccepted, and critically-panned lower over/under of 7.5 DNFs in tomorrow’s Cup race. :)

    Based on the way the Xfinity race played-out, though, I still don’t altogether disagree that a higher DNF (even much higher) number is impossible or even improbable, because if there’s a late-race caution, with say 10 laps remaining or less, then all bets are off and it is very likely that indeed, all hell breaks loose on the end-race restart(s).

    Overall, I still think the “sharp contrarian” play is to assume less rather than more cautions/DNFs/mechanical problems/crashes and stay true to playing the better drivers, in better/faster cars….. This, once again because there is virtually no way to predict the exact drivers who will have problems or DNF.

  • gje627

    Unless we see additional unapproved adjustments to other cars not already going to the back listed above (or below) below are my final rankings for tomorrow’s race (not an impound race, no problems for any driver in tech.).

    Importantly, if a driver is low in the overall ranking, it definitely doesn’t mean I will NOT play him; but in most instances it is likely only a place where I will try and find value.

    Furthermore, I still need to run through my handy-dandy chaos mathematics lineup builder/optimizer so I haven’t yet decided on a percentage of each driver I will play. I may append this as final column tomorrow before the race starts.

    Additionally, the results below are based on my simulations. I haven’t decided yet how aggressive I will be tomorrow with my lineups, but I tend to be more aggressive rather than less in GPPs (less variance, as whole, hoping to have multiple lineups that cash big, rather than playing a lot of variance to “cover” more combinations of drivers, in hopes of one big score at the expense of other lineups)… so I imagine I will remain aggressive again tomorrow.

    Finally, as always, the results below are based on my Monte Carlo simulations (this week 12,000 iterations). As a more aggressive player, I imagine I will end up playing to around the 85th percentile of simulated results (I rely more on standard deviations for NBA since after the first large handful of games each season there is a reasonable sample size, but for low sample-size sports like NASCAR/NFL I will use percentiles; though I still always compare my percentiles to the standard deviation).

    With that said, roughly speaking, at the top 85th percentile for tomorrow, I’m looking at roughly 2.7 standard deviations above/below my mean for tomorrow’s race; which is actually a pretty small standard deviation (more aggressive) for NASCAR and especially for a NASCAR race that it so unpredictable.

    Meaning, boom-or-bust for me again

    But I may change my mind, a little but probably not much by the time the race starts tomorrow…..

    Anyways…. Here’s what my simulations look like. As always, everything discussed above, and the rankings below, strictly apply to DK GPPs only.

    2018 Final Cup Series Pre-Race Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL DK Fantasy Driver Rankings

    DK Overall Rank Driver DK Salary Official Start Position Actual Start Position DK FPts Rank DK Value Rank
    ———— —————————— ————- —————— —————— ———— ————
    1 Kyle Busch 11400 14 13 1 1
    2 Martin Truex Jr 11100 13 12 2 3
    3 Kevin Harvick 11700 19 18 4 12
    4 Brad Keselowski 9800 25 36 4 5
    5 Chase Elliott 10500 4 4 6 9
    6 Joey Logano 8800 15 14 3 2
    7 Kyle Larson 10100 5 5 7 8
    8 Kurt Busch 9000 1 1 7 4
    9 Clint Bowyer 9500 7 7 9 7
    10 Ryan Blaney 8500 9 9 10 10
    11 Denny Hamlin 9200 27 38 13 18
    12 Daniel Suarez 8100 17 16 12 11
    13 Erik Jones 7400 12 37 10 6
    14 Jimmie Johnson 8600 6 6 14 17
    15 Aric Almirola 8300 20 19 14 15
    16 Paul Menard 7500 22 21 17 14
    17 Ryan Newman 7300 29 26 16 13
    18 Jamie McMurray 7900 8 8 18 19
    19 William Byron 7000 21 20 19 16
    20 Alex Bowman 7100 3 3 20 20
    21 Austin Dillon 6900 24 23 21 21
    22 AJ Allmendinger 7700 2 2 26 30
    23 Chris Buescher 6700 10 10 22 25
    24 Trevor Bayne 6500 16 15 22 23
    25 Ricky Stenhouse Jr 6200 23 22 25 24
    26 David Ragan 5700 30 27 22 22
    27 Ty Dillon 5900 26 24 26 26
    28 Michael McDowell 6100 18 17 28 28
    29 Regan Smith 6400 32 40 31 34
    30 Justin Marks 6000 31 28 31 33
    31 Ross Chastain 5100 35 30 29 27
    32 Matt DiBenedetto 5200 28 25 30 29
    33 Bubba Wallace 5400 34 39 35 37
    34 Landon Cassill 4900 38 33 33 32
    35 Cole Whitt 5300 33 29 35 36
    36 Daniel Hemric 5600 11 11 37 38
    37 JJ Yeley 4600 36 31 33 31
    38 Timmy Hill 4500 40 35 38 35
    39 Jeffrey Earnhardt 4700 37 32 39 39
    40 Stanton Barrett 4800 39 34 40 40
  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Gje, what is driving Hemric so low? Is it sample size on info available for him? He has been solid all weekend minus his late mental mistake in the xfinity. I won’t go crazy on him but at his price if he finishes T15 he most likely pays off.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Gje, what is driving Hemric so low? Is it sample size on info available for him? He has been solid all weekend minus his late mental mistake in the xfinity. I won’t go crazy on him but at his price if he finishes T15 he most likely pays off.

    Mostly he’s a rookie, kind of (okay, not really even a rookie because he hasn’t raced enough Cup races this year), racing a big-boy car (heavy, high-horsepower compared to Xfinity cars), at a road-course (where new, young, non-specialist drivers tend to suck big-time… yes he was good in qualifying/practice but he wasn’t “bumping-and-banging” to compete for position then… the real race will be substantially different than practice and qualifying), in a Cup series playoff cut-off race (where contenders are vying to get into the next round so he will not want to ruin a studs year before going full-time in Cup next year…. i.e., he doesn’t want to anger the “Gods”), at a totally meaningless race for him (except to impress his bosses and for him I imagine it means simply finishing the race, and again he’s not vying for a championship here, and he’s not pissed like McMurray who is a long-in-the-beard veteran who is exempt, more-or-less from pissing-off his fellow “old-timers”… but even if he if pisses other drivers off, why would he care anyways as he has no ride next year; meaning, like Nicolas Cage… he’s “Driving Angry”)…..

    And, given the combination of the minuses above, his starting position is far too high…. Meaning, I think he will mostly drive tomorrow to stay out of the way and not really compete to move-up, or even maintain his too-high starting position…..

    Other than that I love him !!! :)

    Notwithstanding that last sentence only, I do like him a little and depending on what my final algorithms spit-out when building lineups, I can see him in a handful of lineups (not many though) based on his talent, quality of car, and salary, etc….

    Does my explanation even make sense?

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Mostly he’s a rookie, kind of (okay, not really even a rookie because he hasn’t raced enough Cup races this year), racing a big-boy car (heavy, high-horsepower), at a road-course (where new, young, non-specialist drivers tend to suck big-time), in a playoff cut-off race (where contenders are vying to get into the next round so he will not want to ruin a stud’s year before going full-time in Cup next year), at a totally meaningless race for him (again he’s not vying for a championship here, and he’s not pissed like McMurray that he was let go)…..

    Other than that I love him !!! :)

    Notwithstanding that last sentence only, I do like him a little and depending on what my final algorithms spit-out when building lineups, I can see him in a handful of lineups (not many though) based on his talent, quality of car, and salary, etc….

    Does my explanation even make sense?

    Sounds good…👌 I am thinking 7-10% as I feel he won’t be owned more than 10%… you like Jamie Mac?

  • gje627

    Actually, substantially edited my reply to your last question since you first read and responded (think the new version makes more sense).

    Regarding your McMurray question…. Even though he’s starting high (not stoned, or coked-up … not that I know of anyways … but in a high starting position)…..

    Yes, I really like him and think he may be the top contrarian play for tomorrow !!!

    Regarding your Hemric ownership projections, I totally agree though I wouldn’t be surprised if it was even lower. However, I imagine I will be right at the 7% to 10% you state, but I can’t say for sure as I haven’t run/dun (actually “done”, but “dun” in this context is more rhythmic and “rone/done” makes even less sense) my lineups yet….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Actually, substantially edited my reply to your last question since you first read and responded (think the new version makes more sense).

    Regarding your McMurray question…. Even though he’s starting high (not stoned, or coked-up, but in a high starting position)…..

    Yes, I really like him and think he may be the top contrarian play for tomorrow !!!

    Regarding your Hemric ownership projections, I totally agree though I wouldn’t be surprised if it was even lower. However, I imagine I will be right at the 7% to 10% you state, but I can’t say for sure as I haven’t run/dun (actually “done”, but “dun” in this context is more rhythmic in this context)….

    Agree, I think McMurray and JJ will be the low owned for T9 drivers…I think I am going to build around Ky Busch, Truex, and Kes and fill in with contrarian plays. I know earlier I mentioned liking Harvick due to his driving style but he may be the sharp fade…he hasn’t looked good all weekend. Times are slow on a tough to pass track plus his salary. If he finishes 8-10 I don’t think that’s good enough to pay off. Doesn’t look like he has a T5 car at all.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Agree, I think McMurray and JJ will be the low owned for T9 drivers…I think I am going to build around Ky Busch, Truex, and Kes and fill in with contrarian plays. I know earlier I mentioned liking Harvick due to his driving style but he may be the sharp fade…he hasn’t looked good all weekend. Times are slow on a tough to pass track plus his salary. If he finishes 8-10 I don’t think that’s good enough to pay off. Doesn’t look like he has a T5 car at all.

    I like your idea. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Also the couple lineups I have made I don’t care for, drivers are priced up well this week making it more challenging plus I don’t like many cheap drivers this week.

  • dbullsfan

    @Cooper08 said...

    Agree, I think McMurray and JJ will be the low owned for T9 drivers…I think I am going to build around Ky Busch, Truex, and Kes and fill in with contrarian plays. I know earlier I mentioned liking Harvick due to his driving style but he may be the sharp fade…he hasn’t looked good all weekend. Times are slow on a tough to pass track plus his salary. If he finishes 8-10 I don’t think that’s good enough to pay off. Doesn’t look like he has a T5 car at all.

    I doubt JJ will be low owned, he is everyone and their mom’s pick to win this week. I wouldn’t call him chalk but I’d be surprised if he isn’t around 20%

  • Deltfish

    GJE – as always I can’t thank you enough for your thoughts and contributions.

    Unlike you, I am almost strictly a cash player and don’t do many gpp’s.

    I was hoping you could take just a minute and list a few of the drivers for today’s race you would consider to be the safest or highest floor plays.

    Based on charts above I know you don’t have McDowell as an example rated high, because in a gpp I can’t see him finishing top 5 or winning, but for someone like him would you consider a viable cash play or do you have thoughts on any other drivers?

    Thanks so much for the consideration.

  • grahambo

    I’d like to also thank everyone for the dialogue in here.

    GJE – you provide a wealth of knowledge and data that I can’t thank you enough for. While I may not talk much, I’m reading in here constantly. You and Coop provide great conversation which is more value then I can add.

    Thus, I remain a student of the game. Haha

  • gje627

    Yeah, sorry about that. I just looked at the chart again, and it’s kind of deceiving based on the information I included in my post (the columns are so narrow it’s difficult to get too much information on the page, so I abbreviate what I include).

    Actually, I really like McDowell. That would be in both GPP and cash. Depending on the rest of your build, if you need to save a little salary I also like David Ragan. I don’t think Ragan’s potential to finish high is nearly as good as McDowell, but he’s starting 12 positions lower and would save you $400.

    With all that said, if both stay out of trouble, I think McDowell and Ragan are easily the best plays in that salary range today.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Ownership should be interesting today, hard to predict this week as there are two clear paths to strategy. Either you are playing typical road course strategy which means staying with drivers in T15 or you go restrictor plate race route and play little of those T15. Clear to say Kes, Truex and Ky Busch will be highest owned. I am equal to slight over on them. Hamlin should be next and I am fading. After that I feel you see a bunch drivers at 15-22% which is rare. I know it’s crazy to go high owned on pole sitter at road course but Ku Busch is a great driver on the road. If he can get out lead 15-25 laps and get some fast laps that will offset him if he finishes 4-8 today. I think I will be 1-1.5x on Ku Busch. Elliott, Larson and Bowyer are others I am going with in T10 and should be over on them.

    Based on gje chaos math I have some lineups today that doesn’t fit his math and things I wouldn’t do normally, like playing four drivers starting in T10🤞. I really think it’s going to be hard to get in T10 from back and I expect the majority of T10 to stay in that area today minus mechanical issues or the rare wreck.

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