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  • gje627

    Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 12:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Friday, 4:45 PM (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Saturday, 11:00 AM (NBC Sports App)
    — Practice: Saturday, 1:30 PM (CNBC)
    — Race: Bank of America Roval 400, Sunday 2:00 PM (NBC)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 109 Laps, 248.52 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 25; Stage 2: Lap 26 – 50; Stage 3: Lap 51 – 109
    — Expected Fuel Window – Unknown (possibly TBA but in Stage 1 and 2 it is likely that pit strategy (especially pitting just prior to stage-end) will be much more important than the fuel window. Additionally, in all 3 stages tire wear will also be very important in determining when teams pit.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018

    — 2.28 mile road course/oval; 24-degree banking in oval; 0- to 4-degree banking road course; potential/unknown negative camber issues in road-course sections (flat, right turns as well as left turns) versus oval portions (only left turns like traditional races… FWIW/IMO , since NASCAR is experimenting with the bizarre, it may have been fun to reverse the oval portion to only run right hand turns).
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Most Cautions: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: NA, Inaugural ROVAL race

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International

    Note: It should go without saying, but the Charlotte Motor Speedway oval/intermediate course is not an applicable comparison to the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL even though a large portion of each lap will be run on the oval. This is really not due to the fact that the whole race will not be run on the oval, but car set-up will be totally different than any other any Cup race at Charlotte; and all other intermediate tracks in this same regard.

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — NA

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    — NA

    Most Relevant Primary Data for Fantasy Race Analysis (preliminary)

    Upcoming Cup Series ROVAL race: Practice/Qualifying Speed/Position, especially including 10-lap averages.
    Upcoming Xfinity Charlotte ROVAL race: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %, Laps Led, Fastest Laps, Place Differential.
    Road Courses: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %, Green Flag Passes (Sonoma more important than Watkins Glen), Quality Passes (Sonoma more important than Watkins Glen), Laps Led, Fastest Laps (Watkins Glen more important than Sonoma), Pass Differential, Place Differential, Finishing Position, Driver Rating, Practice/Qualifying Speed/Position (Watkins Glen more important than Sonoma). All data over prior 4-years.
    Current Playoff Standings: Brad Keselowski, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex, Jr. have advanced to 2nd round; Kevin Harvick simply needs to start the race to advance; Joey Logano, Aric Almirola, Kyle Larson, Kurt Busch, Chase Elliott, Austin Dillon, Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Clint Bowyer, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, and Denny Hamlin all make it to the 2nd round under different scenarios (with the latter drivers almost certainly needing a ROVAL win); remaining drivers are not in the playoffs.

    Most Relevant Secondary Data for Fantasy Race Analysis (preliminary)

    Daytona International Speedway/Talladega International Speedway, Pocono Raceway: All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %.
    YTD (all 2018 races): All DNF %, Crash DNF %, Mechanical DNF %.
    EDIT: Driver recent performance at short, flat tracks, particularly with difficult/unique turns compared to other turns on the same track (this impacts car set-up, per EhhTimmay suggestion below)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • grahambo

    I have a lineup with 4 drivers in the T10 and that seems to be my “favorite” this week.

  • gje627

    @grahambo said...

    I have a lineup with 4 drivers in the T10 and that seems to be my “favorite” this week.

    Hey Coop and Grahambo….

    Real quick. None of my chaos math shows having four (4) top 10 starting position drivers in the same lineup this week as being a good play. In fact, at that range I would limit the max number to three (3), and even at that number use sparingly.

    To demonstrate, shortly I will post some necessary and optimal place differential points in road course lineups on DK….

  • gje627

    Per previous post, two (2) quick tables. The first is actual data, the second is selected statistics. I’ve often mentioned that I like using percentiles more than standard deviation in NASCAR given the very small sample size (actually, technically it’s a “population size” as it includes all data from the selected timeframe)….

    Anyways, if you want to play safe, I say use the Min/Max numbers below or with a little risk use the 10th and 90th percentiles. Certainly you can compress even further to be more aggressive.I generally go with a range no smaller than between the 15th and 85th percentile, and frequently from the 20th to 80th percentile…. Again, I did include the standard deviation to calculate 1.0, 1.5, 2.0, etc., above and below the mean (also included), but I probably wouldn’t recommend this approach as stated before….

    Finally, and this should be obvious, but the combined start position is will always be six (6) more than the combined place differential points in a six (6) driver lineup….

    Table 1: Data 2005 to 2018, Road Course Sum of Start Position and Place Differential Fantasy Points in DK Optimal Lineups

    Year Race Sum of Start Sum of PD FPts
    —————————- ————————- ——————————-
    2005-16 174 168
    2005-22 145 139
    2006-16 189 183
    2006-22 113 107
    2007-16 216 210
    2007-22 107 101
    2008-16 175 169
    2008-22 133 127
    2009-16 160 154
    2009-22 138 132
    2010-16 97 91
    2010-22 108 102
    2011-16 135 129
    2011-22 92 86
    2012-16 111 105
    2012-22 67 61
    2013-16 106 100
    2013-22 103 97
    2014-16 111 105
    2014-22 105 99
    2015-16 88 82
    2015-22 89 83
    2016-16 68 62
    2016-22 71 65
    2017-16 103 97
    2017-22 54 48
    2018-16 94 88
    2018-22 82 76

    Table 2: Selected Statistics 2005 to 2018, Road Course Sum of Start Position and Place Differential Fantasy Points in DK Optimal Lineups

    Description DK Sum of Start Position DK Sum of Place Diff FPts
    ————————————————— ———————- ———————
    Number of Road Course Races 28.00 28.00
    Mean 115.50 109.50
    Median 106.50 100.50
    Min 54.00 48.00
    Max 216.00 210.00
    Variance 1537.22 1537.22
    Std. dev. 39.21 39.21
    Std. err. 7.41 7.41
    10th Percentile 68.00 62.00
    20th Percentile 88.00 82.00
    30th Percentile 94.00 88.00
    40th Percentile 103.00 97.00
    50th Percentile 106.50 100.50
    60th Percentile 111.00 105.00
    70th Percentile 133.00 127.00
    80th Percentile 145.00 139.00
    90th Percentile 175.00 169.00
  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @gje627 said...

    Hey Coop and Grahambo….

    Real quick. None of my chaos math shows having four (4) top 10 starting position drivers in the same lineup this week as being a good play. In fact, at that range I would limit the max number to three (3), and even at that number use sparingly.

    To demonstrate, shortly I will post some necessary and optimal place differential points in road course lineups on DK….

    Only three lineups with four in T10, majority of lineups fall between 65-95 and the three mentioned are only ones at 65 or less. As far as having three, if you expand to Ky Busch and Truex that is were the majority of my lineups fall. I will double check but I think I only have one lineup with three in T10 minus three above with four. I guess those four lineups would be considered my contrarian lineups.

  • grahambo

    Thanks GJE for the tables!

  • gje627

    @grahambo said...

    Thanks GJE for the tables!

    No problem. :)

  • eleanorRigby

    Thanks for all the great info and good luck today.

  • gje627

    Way overweight on the Busch Brothers, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, and Erik Jones. Way (way, way, way) underweight on Harvick.

    Also very healthy amount of Truex, Jr.

    Ended up including Hamlin but only in a few lineups. Only a handful more lineups with Johnson.

    Couldn’t find a way to pull the trigger on a single Hemric lineup. Wanted to play a little Marks, but at his price I couldn’t do that either. Did the same with Allmendinger, a little worried here but by the second stage I really don’t think he’ll be a factor. Not very confident with that “prognostication” but hey…. once I built my lineups I’m not totally confident with a lot today, but I entered according to my math….

    These are my full fades: Alex Bowman, Chris Buescher, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, AJ Allmendinger, Matt DiBenedetto, Justin Marks, Regan Smith, Bubba Wallace, Daniel Hemric, Timmy Hill, Jeffrey Earnhardt, Stanton Barrett.

  • yisman

    wow the early lock at 1:45

    saw it with a minute and a half to go and threw a lineup in

    only was able to join like 4 contests

  • gje627

    Decent overlay in the DK Track Record, only 88% full.

    lykke til venner !!!

    That’s “Good Luck Friends” in Norwegian !!! :)

  • gje627

    Love the Truex, Jr. and Sherry Pollex story today….

    She’s really been through hell….

    And still not out of the woods….

  • gje627

    So far, I must say I’m pretty impressed with the ROVAL….

    Maybe I was wrong….

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Was up $225..just lost Kes, Larson, Ky Busch, Menard, Byron….hoping to salvage with some Truex and Chase…

  • someclevername

    Guess I’m lucky to have just lost Kyle Busch there – just hoping to squeak through for a min cash at this point lol

  • yisman

    @gje627 said...

    Decent overlay in the DK Track Record, only 88% full.

    lykke til venner !!!

    That’s “Good Luck Friends” in Norwegian !!! :)

    that’s still not overlay because the Track Record has a rake of over 15%. What you got was a rake of only a few percent rather than the standard 15%.

    There was a little overlay in the higher buy-ins.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60564222
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60564224
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697781
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697976
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697975
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697778
    Unheard of for NASCAR

  • yisman

    Just lost Kyle Busch, Brad, Bayne, and Bubba so my only lineup is toast

    I played xfinity yesterday and 2 of my 6 drivers crashed

    Bad luck weekend

  • someclevername

    lmao man that sucks – was, idk, 2 seconds away from cashing

  • Deltfish

    I hope JJ doesn’t advance. What an idiot

  • gje627

    @Deltfish said...

    I hope JJ doesn’t advance. What an idiot

    Agree.

    19, 43, 83, 83, in the Track Record….

    So close, but no cigar….

  • Deltfish

    Hahahahahaha. 48 doesn’t advance. All he had to do was finish the race. The win didn’t matter. So stupid.

  • EhhTimmay

    When your day turns to complete garbage because Johnson is an idiot.

  • gje627

    @yisman said...

    that’s still not overlay because the Track Record has a rake of over 15%. What you got was a rake of only a few percent rather than the standard 15%.

    There was a little overlay in the higher buy-ins.

    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60564222
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60564224
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697781
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697976
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697975
    https://www.draftkings.com/contest/gamecenter/60697778
    Unheard of for NASCAR

    Okay, thanks….

    Really was only pointing out that the contest didn’t fill.

    Spend more time on lineups/research.

    Less (ZERO) time analyzing rake/overlay….

    After all, by the time you find out (lock), it’s too late….

  • THEJENNERALS

    That crash killed me. Went from up around $50 to only cashing one line in the quarter for a whole $0.75!!!

  • yisman

    @gje627 said...

    Okay, thanks….

    Really was only pointing out that the contest didn’t fill.

    Spend more time on lineups/research.

    Less (ZERO) time analyzing rake/overlay….

    After all, by the time you find out (lock), it’s too late….

    I’m merely explaining to you what overlay is.

  • someclevername

    @Deltfish said...

    Hahahahahaha. 48 doesn’t advance. All he had to do was finish the race. The win didn’t matter. So stupid.

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