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  • gje627

    Darlington Raceway – “The Lady in Black” or “The Track Too Tough to Tame”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 2:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Friday, 4:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Saturday, 2:00 PM (NBCSN)
    — Race: Bojangles’ Southern 500, Sunday, 6:00 PM (NBCSN)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 367 Laps, 501.3 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 100; Stage 2: Lap 101 – 200; Stage 3: Lap 201 – 367
    — Expected Fuel Window – 64-70 Laps (drivers unlikely to run 64-70 consecutive laps as tires will be needed much earlier).

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate as of 8/27/2018.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018

    — 1.366 mile oval; 25-degree banking turns 1 and 2 (width 79 ft.); 23-degree banking turns 3 and 4 (width 62 ft.); 3-degree banking Frontstretch (1,229 ft long, width 90 ft.); 2-degree banking Backstretch (1,229 ft long, width 90 ft.); last track repave 2008 (10 NASCAR Cup races since repave)
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 1.348 seconds; Low – 0.196 seconds (2011); High – 3.155 seconds (2008)
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 21 of 23 Tracks (6.13 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 19 of 23 Tracks (2.05 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 16 of 23 Tracks (2.86 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 16 of 23 Tracks (1.35 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 17 of 23 Tracks (44.48% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 2 of 23 Tracks (10.13% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 14 of 23 Tracks (5.79% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 7 of 23 Tracks (15.91% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes, Lead Changes, and Cautions standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Bristol Motor Speedway, 8/18/2018).

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Bristol Motor Speedway, Dover International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 5/12/2012: Jimmie Johnson
    — 5/11/2013: Matt Kenseth
    — 4/12/2014: Kevin Harvick
    — 9/6/2015: Carl Edwards
    — 9/4/2016: Martin Truex, Jr.
    — 9/3/2017: Denny Hamlin

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    5/12/2012: Jimmie Johnson (108.00 DK FPts) – Jimmie Johnson (93.7 FD FPts)
    5/11/2013: Kyle Busch (128.75 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (96.7 FD FPts)
    4/12/2014: Kevin Harvick (144.00 DK FPts) – Kevin Harvick (104.2 FD FPts)
    9/6/2015: Brad Keselowski (110.50 DK FPts) – Brad Keselowski (95.8 FD FPts)
    9/4/2016: Kevin Harvick (118.50 DK FPts) – Kevin Harvick (97.6 FD FPts)
    9/3/2017: Denny Hamlin (108.50 DK FPts) – Denny Hamlin (96.1 FD FPts)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • jt77316

    Getting it up early. I like it!

  • gje627

    @jt77316 said...

    Getting it up early. I like it!

    Yeah, I always get a little anxious when there’s a week off in NASCAR Cup — typical withdrawal symptoms…. nausea, vomiting, night sweats, tremors. (:

    Also, kind of feel like a heel…. Promised everyone some research results this week (see prior posts) since we had a week off last week; but life changes and I ended-up moving permanently two weeks earlier than I had originally planned (from metro Denver to “out-in-the-country Colorado”) and I’m consolidating houses (from three to two now, plus a new build)…..

    Sadly, I’m really proficient at buying houses/land but terrible at unloading the ones I no longer want….

    Regardless, I do plan on doing the research and analysis I discussed previously, but now it will have to wait until the off-season, as fantasy NASCAR will largely be dead after this week anyways with the start of football season and basketball season shortly thereafter (both of which I’m excited for, BTW).

    I.e. nobody here will really care about NASCAR research at this point…. So why not just do a better analysis/analyses over the winter months in preparation for the new season starting in February 2019.

    Nevertheless, as I get acclimated to country living I’m taking the week off. So, I thought I would post NASCAR early this week.

  • gje627

    Header updated to reflect recent release of drivers entered (41 drivers entered for 40 positions in field).

    Courtesy of ESPN-Jayski entry list can be found here:

    Darlington Raceway — 2018 Bojangles’ Southern 500 Entry List

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    Sorry gje but I don’t think it’s coming back😒

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyCrandall/status/1034226134743953410/photo/1

    4 pics

  • wscooby

    Please GJE and Coop, keep the commentary and analysis coming, I need the help. I have not been anywhere near successful this season as last. I am still grinding though, my biggest scores came in September last year.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    Sorry gje but I don’t think it’s coming back😒

    https://mobile.twitter.com/KellyCrandall/status/1034226134743953410/photo/1

    4 pics

    Yeah, that sucks. A really great track…..

    Though the only one I’ve mentioned in the forums is Rockingham….

    But I really would give my left tes…. uh, ear, I mean…..

    For either one.

    #SAD (:

  • gje627

    @wscooby said...

    Please GJE and Coop, keep the commentary and analysis coming, I need the help. I have not been anywhere near successful this season as last. I am still grinding though, my biggest scores came in September last year.

    Sure, wscooby.

    Assuming this will be the last big week of NASCAR until Daytona in February, I’m going to post pretty much everything I use to build lineups (in selfish hopes that contests fill early and DK keeps decent contests alive until the end of the season).

    I assume Coop will oblige too…. And jt77316 too.

    There are also a lot of other smart NASCAR DFSers that lurk these forums too…..

    Hopefully they will be inclined to participate on what could be the final decent DFS race of the year….. :)

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    First thing that sticks out for this race is that three of the past six winners were not the point leaders. That is rare and what I mean by that is happening at the same track.

  • gje627

    The numbers say nail at least 2 of the right drivers starting 1-13, and limit exposure to drivers starting after that and you will have an excellent chance to take down a GPP (more on this later).

    Also, play GPPs this weekend over cash…. Not a lot of variance based in starting position, etc…. BUT a pretty significant DNF percentage here, primarily mechanical…..

    Which is not surprising given the track layout combined with over 500 miles of racing on a relatively short track….. One of the longest races of the year (more on this later too).

    Expect sweaty palms for 4 to 5 hours.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 206

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #32

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    The $10 tournament is very disappointing this week. It’s a Sunday night race, and it’s not really competing with any other sport that late in the day. I wouldn’t be shocked if it fills 5 hours early and they run another 100k $10 tournament that also fills.

  • stevietpfl

    Morning Grind co-host, Lead NASCAR Analyst

    • 206

      RG Overall Ranking

    • Ranked #32

      RG Tiered Ranking

    • 2015 FanDuel MLB Playboy Mansion Finalist

    • 2015 FAWBC Finalist

    Couple race notes, Goodyear is bringing a higher wear tire this weekend, and this is an impound race so they will be teching the cars after qualifying. I haven’t heard if this is being done Saturday night or Sunday morning yet. We will be at the track and I will be reporting on this live this week.

  • Cooper08

    • Blogger of the Month

    @stevietpfl said...

    Couple race notes, Goodyear is bringing a higher wear tire this weekend, and this is an impound race so they will be teching the cars after qualifying. I haven’t heard if this is being done Saturday night or Sunday morning yet. We will be at the track and I will be reporting on this live this week.

    I heard this on twitter during the off week and now I can’t find, ugh! I think it was Martinsville Sunday am and Indy and Darlington Saturday pm.

  • gje627

    Per Goodyear, via ESPN-Jayski-2018-Darlington-Tires

    Tire: Goodyear Eagle Speedway Radials

    Set limits:

    Cup: 3 sets for practice, 1 set for qualifying and 13 sets for the race;

    Xfinity: 7 sets for the event

    Tire Codes: Left-side — D-4834; Right-side — D-4736

    Tire Circumference:

    Left-side — 2,216 mm (87.24 in.);
    Right-side — 2,251 mm (88.62 in.)

    Minimum Recommended Inflation:

    Left Front — 19 psi; Left Rear – 19 psi;
    Right Front — 52 psi; Right Rear — 48 psi

    Storyline – Throwback weekend features a throwback track surface: Since its most recent repave in 2007, Darlington Raceway has
now returned to its historical status as a high tire wear track. With fall-off being more than three seconds a lap over the course of a fuel run, tire management is key to running well. Taking care of tires early in a run will pay off later. More “comers” and “goers” throughout the field leads
to more passing and more exciting racing. Also of note, the Cup race tire set limit at Darlington is 13 sets for this weekend, the highest of any track on
the circuit.

    “The ‘old,’ high-wear Darlington is back,” said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing. “For many years, Darlington had the most abrasive track surface on the circuit, but that all changed about 10 years ago when it was repaved. Slowly, over the past decade, the surface has become more and more abrasive and harder on tires again. Going to Darlington now, with its throwback theme, seems highly appropriate now that we are back to a high tire wear/tire management race-style race that always seems to produce a great show for the fans.”

    Notes – Tire test yields new set-up for Darlington: Teams in both the NASCAR Cup and Xfinity Series will run the same tire set-up at Darlington this weekend . . . while this is the first time NASCAR teams have run this left-side tire code, teams in both of these series did run this right-side code at Charlotte in May . . . this tire set-up came out of a Goodyear test at Darlington on June 5-6 . . . drivers participating in that test were Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray, Paul Menard and Daniel Suarez . . . compared to what teams in both series ran last year, this left-side tire features a construction update to align it with what is run at other speedways, while this right-side tire features a compound change to give the cars more grip . . . as on all NASCAR ovals greater than one mile in length, teams are required to run inner liners in all four tire positions at Darlington . . . air pressure in those inner liners should be 12-25 psi greater than that of the outer tire.

    Throwback Tires – White-lettered tires return to Darlington: In support of Darlington’s throwback initiative, the tires run at this weekend’s races will feature different sidewall markings . . . replacing the yellow Goodyear Eagle lettering that became standard in 1992 is a white, stencil-look design that harkens back to the early 1990s.

  • gje627

    @Cooper08 said...

    I heard this on twitter during the off week and now I can’t find, ugh! I think it was Martinsville Sunday am and Indy and Darlington Saturday pm.

    Regarding Stevie’s second point, I have not heard when post-qualifying tech inspection will occur either….

  • gje627

    As promised, below is subset of my data for Darlington-only. Please download and if possible fiddle-around with, run some analysis, and post any results or observations that you find interesting. As always, all data is from 2005-2018 (up to current race), although here, for Darlington, the last race was in 2017.

    Darlington-Raw-Data

    Additionally, and as most of you already know, my style of play focuses almost exclusively on pattern matching and game (race) script, race trends, etc.; consequently I do less work analyzing/forecasting individual drivers but instead focus on drivers that can take advantage of the anticipated race script, based on starting position, track history etc…. Consequently, below are two (2) files (one each for Draftkings and FanDuel) with the key summary statistics I use in building my weekly model and running through my handy-dandy lineup builder optimizer…..

    Darlington-Draftkings-Summary-Statistics

    Darlington-FanDuel-Summary-Statistics

    Finally, forthcoming soon will be a spreadsheet with what I consider 75% of the basis for how I construct lineups on a weekly basis. Again the forthcoming does not include any driver analytics (but it will after practice/qualifying) but is the basis for the methodology that I play. Again repeating myself from countless other forums, this file (in conjunction with the above and driver analytics) is the foundation of how I use chaos mathematics/probability theory/set theory/ranking theory and a few other subfields of discrete mathematics to build lineups.

    As the week progresses and we complete the practice and qualifying sessions, I will incorporate analytics for drivers for these sessions, as well as historical driver analytics into my model. I will share these as well.

    Lastly, while I will be sharing all my inputs, I will be unable to share with you my model. This for two (2) reasons. First, since unlike traditional gambling, we don’t play against the house but rather against one another; meaning it would be downright stupid for me to give everything away….. And second, as a practical matter, I coded my lineup builder/optimizer to handle my model, meaning even if you had my model based on my inputs, there is literally no way you could manipulate everything I incorporate to build lineups.

    While I could give you my model and lineup builder/optimizer, I’m not going to do that…..

    Sidenote: Even if I gave you everything, the learning curve for almost everyone here would be huge, as for efficiency purposes I do everything from the command…. Thus, if you’re not fluent in Go, C++, Perl, Python, and GLPK ; all from the command line… you likely wouldn’t be able to use anyways.

    Sorry. (:

  • gje627

    Oh, one more thing…. If you’re looking at the summary statistics above (and hopefully it’s self-evident what I’m getting at here) AND you’re not that familiar with basic/elementary statistics (yes, that is likely required but nothing here is really much more difficult than one-step above simple addition or subtraction)…..

    Please do NOT use the variance, and more specifically standard deviation to determine minimums and maximums…. Or more easily said data floors and ceilings…..

    Why?

    The sample size (here 13 races) is far too small; hence that is why I included actual minimums and maximums and to achieve, in essence, an 80% probabilty rate (i.e. likelihood , that a pattern will hold true in the future) percentiles…. I use the 10th and 90th as you can see from the spreadsheets.

    I do include variance and standard deviation for one reason only. I like to eyeball the standard deviation simply to give me a rough “guesstimation” of how spread the data is. I do not, however, use either one of these in my model.

    For those who don’t know the difference between variance and standard deviation, quite simply, one is in squared units (variance) and the other in actual units (standard deviation); thus unless you need the variance to perform other mathematics at a base calculation, standard deviation is almost always preferable for rudimentary data analysis…..

  • ScuddyStud

    Thanks gje for sharing the data. Always enjoy reading your posts.

  • DefinitelyMiami

    @stevietpfl said...

    The $10 tournament is very disappointing this week. It’s a Sunday night race, and it’s not really competing with any other sport that late in the day. I wouldn’t be shocked if it fills 5 hours early and they run another 100k $10 tournament that also fills.

    It’s going head to head with a College Football game. 🙌

  • gje627

    Per previous posts, here are preliminary finishing order projections for the Darlington race this weekend.

    The “Legend” provides an explanation for each of the column headings, including an explanation of exactly what data (races) are included in the average.

    The Weighted Avg is a composite average for all categories where each category is assigned a different weight. For the time being I am not going to disclose the weights I apply. However, if you’re satisfied with the data I included for each category, you can weight each of the other categories on your own to essentially develop your own finishing order projections.

    Importantly, regarding the Weighted Avg if you see averages that are very close, for example for Martin Truex, Jr., Erik Jones, Denny Hamlin, at 4, 5, 6, respectively; you can pretty much consider these drivers interchangeable meaning anyone of them could easily be expected to occupy anyone of those finishing positions.

    Finally, and of course, please note that as of today these projections only apply to pre-track activities this week and will obviously change based on practice and qualifying.

    LEGEND

    Driver – Self-explanatory.

    Proj Fin Pos – Projected finish position (not fantasy point ranking).

    Weighted Avg – Weighted average finish position, where weights are applied individually for each of the subsequent categories to calculate a composite average.

    YTD Avg Fin Pos – Year-to-date average finish position for all races in 2018 not including Plate and Road Course Races (19 Races).

    Type Avg Fin Pos – Track type average finish position for all races at same track type in 2017 and 2018. Tracks and data in this category include Bristol Motor Speedway, Darlington Raceway, Dover International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, and Las Vegas Motor Speedway (11 Races).

    Track Avg of Fin Pos – Average finishing position for all Darlington Raceway races in 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 (4 Races).

    Mo Avg Fin Pos – Where “Mo” stands for “Momentum”, average finish position for 6 most recent races at tracks not including Plate and Road Course tracks. Tracks and races included are: Chicagoland Speedway (7/1/2018), Kentucky Speedway (7/14/2018), New Hampshire Motor Speedway (7/22/2017), Pocono Raceway (7/29/2018), Michigan International Speedway (8/12/2018), Bristol Motor Speedway (8/18/2018) (6 Races).

    Practice – Composite average of 2 highest practice sessions for current race.

    Qualify – Qualifying position.

    Darlington Raceway – Bojangles’ Southern 500 (9/2/2018) Preliminary Projected Finishing Order for Drivers Entered as of 8/29/2018.

    Driver Proj Fin Pos Weighted Avg YTD Avg Fin Pos Type Avg Fin Pos Track Avg of Fin Pos Mo Avg Fin Pos Practice Qualify
    ——————————- ——— ————— ————- ————- ————- ———— ————— ————-
    Kevin Harvick 1 5.21 6.79 9.73 4.25 4.00 0.00 0.00
    Kyle Busch 2 5.53 5.42 12.45 6.50 5.17 0.00 0.00
    Kyle Larson 3 7.59 11.00 5.27 8.75 10.83 0.00 0.00
    Martin Truex, Jr. 4 8.48 10.26 10.36 11.25 11.33 0.00 0.00
    Erik Jones 5 8.53 12.37 13.09 5.00 8.67 0.00 0.00
    Denny Hamlin 6 8.55 11.79 11.27 6.75 11.33 0.00 0.00
    Joey Logano 7 8.92 9.63 10.82 15.50 11.17 0.00 0.00
    Chase Elliott 8 10.51 11.79 11.73 20.67 9.33 0.00 0.00
    Kurt Busch 9 10.73 10.95 18.64 18.50 7.83 0.00 0.00
    Brad Keselowski 10 10.82 12.42 17.18 10.75 16.67 0.00 0.00
    Clint Bowyer 11 10.99 10.32 14.00 22.75 13.50 0.00 0.00
    Jimmie Johnson 12 11.16 14.42 9.00 16.75 15.33 0.00 0.00
    Ryan Newman 13 12.58 20.00 12.45 9.50 12.83 0.00 0.00
    Ryan Blaney 14 12.86 13.26 20.00 24.67 8.50 0.00 0.00
    Matt Kenseth 15 12.93 21.57 7.86 9.25 17.33 0.00 0.00
    Aric Almirola 16 13.32 13.74 19.40 21.75 16.50 0.00 0.00
    Austin Dillon 17 13.65 18.58 17.00 12.25 18.33 0.00 0.00
    Alex Bowman 18 13.80 15.95 13.00 26.50 15.00 0.00 0.00
    Jamie McMurray 19 13.92 18.95 15.55 13.75 19.50 0.00 0.00
    William Byron 20 15.88 19.37 20.50 na 19.83 0.00 0.00
    Paul Menard 21 16.07 18.16 21.27 24.75 19.00 0.00 0.00
    Daniel Suarez 22 16.42 16.79 17.91 38.00 13.17 0.00 0.00
    Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 23 17.03 19.74 19.55 26.25 22.67 0.00 0.00
    Kasey Kahne 24 17.98 23.74 20.82 20.00 23.67 0.00 0.00
    Ty Dillon 25 18.10 25.26 22.18 13.00 27.17 0.00 0.00
    Chris Buescher 26 18.34 24.42 24.45 17.00 23.50 0.00 0.00
    A.J. Allmendinger 27 19.40 23.26 25.18 23.75 27.50 0.00 0.00
    David Ragan 28 19.71 23.84 21.91 29.50 24.67 0.00 0.00
    Michael McDowell 29 19.91 25.16 26.09 23.00 24.83 0.00 0.00
    Bubba Wallace 30 20.26 24.89 25.00 na 28.00 0.00 0.00
    Matt DiBenedetto 31 21.52 27.47 25.64 26.00 27.83 0.00 0.00
    Landon Cassill 32 23.13 30.27 27.90 24.00 32.33 0.00 0.00
    Ross Chastain 33 23.35 28.42 30.00 na 29.83 0.00 0.00
    Corey LaJoie 34 25.03 31.83 31.22 28.00 34.17 0.00 0.00
    J.J. Yeley 35 26.29 33.17 31.00 34.00 32.67 0.00 0.00
    Joey Gase 36 26.50 32.00 35.00 na na 0.00 0.00
    Jeffrey Earnhardt 37 26.67 33.43 32.00 34.00 34.00 0.00 0.00
    Timmy Hill 38 27.24 33.90 34.00 na 34.80 0.00 0.00
    B.J. McLeod 39 27.49 34.63 34.00 na 34.40 0.00 0.00
    Derrike Cope 40 27.61 35.50 33.75 32.00 na 0.00 0.00

    EDIT: I should mention something else. In my actual projections, I also factor-in driver rating for each of the categories above, as that is often a more useful gauge for a driver’s performance than historical finish position. Additionally, for me anyways, the projections above are a relatively minor portion of my overall lineup construction. I tend to rely more on much of the data I shared in the previous view days (and some yet to come), and my simulations which takes into account individual driver variance (driver consistency, DNF potential, etc.). And of course, for fantasy purposes, the speed components of scoring; namely fast laps and laps led. Obviously, neither are reflected here.

    Thought this was important to mention.

  • gje627

    @ScuddyStud said...

    Thanks gje for sharing the data. Always enjoy reading your posts.

    You’re welcome.:)

  • gje627

    FYI: Reed Sorenson has withdrawn from the Cup race this weekend. Additionally, the #52 Rick Ware racing car was formerly TBD. This morning it was announced that J.J. Yeley will be driving the #52.

    The net result, is there are now 40 (not 41) drivers to occupy 40 positions in this weekend’s race. The header of this thread has been updated to reflect this change.

    Obviously, if you’re looking at my preliminary finish order projections please disregard Reed Sorenson. He will be removed for updates occurring after practice and qualifying. Additionally, J.J. Yeley will be added to the revised projections; again after practice and qualifying.

    EDIT: Reed Sorenson removed from, and J.J. Yeley added to preliminary finish order projections above.

  • CAMFAN11

    Excited to be going to Darlington this year. Sitting in Tyler tower row 15 section j !

  • gje627

    Somewhat of an echo of Stevie’s comments from the last race….

    Kudos to DK as pricing just came out, and rostering multiple top-tier drivers will again be difficult this week; though I actually think salaries, particularly for the high-end drivers, is even better (more challenging) this week than it was for Bristol.

  • jt77316

    @CAMFAN11 said...

    Excited to be going to Darlington this year. Sitting in Tyler tower row 15 section j !

    I am thinking about going. I have only been once and it was kind of a “bleh” race so we will see!

  • gje627

    Maybe not an existential question, but a philosophical one nonetheless….

    If a tree falls in the NASCAR forum and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?

    ….

    Hopefully next year DK and FD can do something to increase interest in fantasy NASCAR; and of course NASCAR itself to increase overall interest in the sport.

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