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  • gje627

    Darlington Raceway – “The Lady in Black” or “The Track Too Tough to Tame”

    Schedule — all times are Eastern Time (ET)

    — Practice 1: Friday, 2:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Practice 2: Friday, 4:05 PM (NBCSN)
    — Qualifying: Saturday, 2:00 PM (NBCSN)
    — Race: Bojangles’ Southern 500, Sunday, 6:00 PM (NBCSN)

    Race Details

    — 40 Drivers Entered; 367 Laps, 501.3 Miles
    — Stage 1: Lap 1 – 100; Stage 2: Lap 101 – 200; Stage 3: Lap 201 – 367
    — Expected Fuel Window – 64-70 Laps (drivers unlikely to run 64-70 consecutive laps as tires will be needed much earlier).

    Note: Fuel Cell capacity is an estimate as of 8/27/2018.

    Fantasy Relevant Track Details/Rankings 2005 to 2018

    — 1.366 mile oval; 25-degree banking turns 1 and 2 (width 79 ft.); 23-degree banking turns 3 and 4 (width 62 ft.); 3-degree banking Frontstretch (1,229 ft long, width 90 ft.); 2-degree banking Backstretch (1,229 ft long, width 90 ft.); last track repave 2008 (10 NASCAR Cup races since repave)
    — Winner Average Margin of Victory: 1.348 seconds; Low – 0.196 seconds (2011); High – 3.155 seconds (2008)
    — Rank Most Green Flag Passes: 21 of 23 Tracks (6.13 Green Flag Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Quality Passes (Top 15 Passes): 19 of 23 Tracks (2.05 Quality Passes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Lead Changes: 16 of 23 Tracks (2.86 Lead Changes per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Most Cautions: 16 of 23 Tracks (1.35 Cautions per 100 Miles)
    — Rank Highest % Drivers Finishing on Lead Lap: 17 of 23 Tracks (44.48% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Mechanical: 2 of 23 Tracks (10.13% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Crash: 14 of 23 Tracks (5.79% per Drivers/Race)
    — Rank Highest % DNF Drivers – Overall: 7 of 23 Tracks (15.91% per Drivers/Race)

    Note: Data and Rankings are Cup series only. Green Flag Passes, Quality Passes, Lead Changes, and Cautions standardized to 100 miles per driver to account for differences in miles per race and number of drivers in field. Lead Lap and all DNF categories standardized to drivers per race. All statistics updated through most recent race (Bristol Motor Speedway, 8/18/2018).

    Comparable Tracks (alphabetical order)

    Bristol Motor Speedway, Dover International Speedway, Homestead-Miami Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway

    Last Six (6) Race Winners

    — 5/12/2012: Jimmie Johnson
    — 5/11/2013: Matt Kenseth
    — 4/12/2014: Kevin Harvick
    — 9/6/2015: Carl Edwards
    — 9/4/2016: Martin Truex, Jr.
    — 9/3/2017: Denny Hamlin

    Last Six (6) DK and FD Fantasy Points Leaders

    5/12/2012: Jimmie Johnson (108.00 DK FPts) – Jimmie Johnson (93.7 FD FPts)
    5/11/2013: Kyle Busch (128.75 DK FPts) – Kyle Busch (96.7 FD FPts)
    4/12/2014: Kevin Harvick (144.00 DK FPts) – Kevin Harvick (104.2 FD FPts)
    9/6/2015: Brad Keselowski (110.50 DK FPts) – Brad Keselowski (95.8 FD FPts)
    9/4/2016: Kevin Harvick (118.50 DK FPts) – Kevin Harvick (97.6 FD FPts)
    9/3/2017: Denny Hamlin (108.50 DK FPts) – Denny Hamlin (96.1 FD FPts)

    Race Data, News, and Information

    Rotogrinders NASCAR Free tools
    ESPN Jayski
    Motor Racing Network
    Racing Reference

    Race Day Breaking News and Weather

    Stephen Young – stevietpfl
    Bob Pockrass
    NASCAR Weather

    Note: As needed information above will be updated.

  • gje627

    Thanks Everyone…..

    Honestly…..

    I try to share as much information/data/analytics etc. as I have with everyone here each week…..

    And, as promised, this week I shared everything I used…..

    Great forum, great people. :)

    Honestly?

    Just knowing that the information I provide is useful to everyone here, is a great reward…..

    But….

    Yes, I LOVE the money even more :)… LOL !!!

    Fun year !!!

    Again….

    THANKS FOR ALL YOUR KIND REMARKS AND POSITIVE FEEDBACK !!!

  • Joltman1974

    • 2019 FanDuel WFBC Finalist

    Awesome job gje! You were right on the $ with the Hamlin fade and heavy Larson. Very well done!

  • tristanwolf

    Holy Cow gje i saw you took $500 in the $2 i was in last night but i didn’t know you binked the big one and then some. congrats man!

    great weekend for dfs. nascar, college fball, mlb, golf sweat on monday. need justin rose to come through today! so much fun!

  • grahambo

    Any chance for stats for the race at the Brickyard?

  • gje627

    @grahambo said...

    Any chance for stats for the race at the Brickyard?

    I’ll try to post some things in the next couple of days; probably in a new thread for next week’s race.

    I really want to see what the contests look like for Indy before doing too much work. If they’re as bad as I expect, I’ll probably do more NFL work this week than NASCAR…. Then NBA starts too before the NASCAR season is over….

    I know I post a lot of data/analysis each week, but it is never consistent so one thing that would be helpful is if yourself (and others) let me know what you find most useful.

    That way I could schedule, and then post information people here really want.

    P.S.: I may be wrong, but I assumed this question was mostly directed to me. If I am incorrect, my apologies.

  • wscooby

    @gje627 said...

    I’ll try to post some things in the next couple of days; probably in a new thread for next week’s race.

    I really want to see what the contests look like for Indy before doing too much work. If they’re as bad as I expect, I’ll probably do more NFL work this week than NASCAR…. Then NBA starts too before the NASCAR season is over….

    I know I post a lot of data/analysis each week, but it is never consistent so one thing that would be helpful is if yourself (and others) let me know what you find most useful.

    That way I could schedule, and then post information people here really want.

    P.S.: I may be wrong, but I assumed this question was mostly directed to me. If I am incorrect, my apologies.

    I liked your finish position projections and qualifying!! Also, the document you posted with different starting positions grouped by the % they figured into the optimal lineups in past history!!

  • grahambo

    @gje627 said...

    I’ll try to post some things in the next couple of days; probably in a new thread for next week’s race.

    I really want to see what the contests look like for Indy before doing too much work. If they’re as bad as I expect, I’ll probably do more NFL work this week than NASCAR…. Then NBA starts too before the NASCAR season is over….

    I know I post a lot of data/analysis each week, but it is never consistent so one thing that would be helpful is if yourself (and others) let me know what you find most useful.

    That way I could schedule, and then post information people here really want.

    P.S.: I may be wrong, but I assumed this question was mostly directed to me. If I am incorrect, my apologies.

    You are correct sir. My fault for not properly addressing my question.

    I echo what wscooby said and the fast laps/lead laps projections were also extremely useful.

  • gje627

    Okay, I’ll do my best. Obviously, I won’t be able to do too much until we have an entry list (should be posted by NASCAR around noon ET today) and practice and qualifying completed.

    Unless someone else wants to do it, since we’re now talking Indy I’ll also start the new thread sometime today since Darlington 2018 is now history. That way the moderators can archive this one and we can start the week fresh !!

  • Trappist1

    @gje627 said...

    Okay, I’ll do my best. Obviously, I won’t be able to do too much until we have an entry list (should be posted by NASCAR around noon ET today) and practice and qualifying completed.

    Unless someone else wants to do it, since we’re now talking Indy I’ll also start the new thread sometime today since Darlington 2018 is now history. That way the moderators can archive this one and we can start the week fresh !!

    How common is duplication and ties in Nascar ? How many GPP’s had ties for 1st place ? I am just getting into playing Nascar and wondering about it.

  • gje627

    @Trappist1 said...

    How common is duplication and ties in Nascar ? How many GPP’s had ties for 1st place ? I am just getting into playing Nascar and wondering about it.

    It depends on race variance by track and often number of drivers in the field. Typically at high variance races like Daytona and Talladega it is not uncommon for a GPP winner to have a unique lineup, but this is less common on some of the more predictable tracks. Additionally, when the field is full (40 drivers, 43 drivers before 2016) you’ll see more unique lineups, but when the field is 36 to 39 drivers, more duplication occurs. This is typically because there are fewer value/punt/backmarkers in the field to choose from.

    Thus, if I had to guess, I would say it’s about 50/50 between races with unique winning GPP lineups in the big contest on DK and contests ending in ties. I will say, however, I have no data to support this “guesstimation.”
    ….

    Interestingly at Darlington this past weekend, there was a 3-way tie for 1st in the big GPP contest…. Yours truly was among the 3-way and I had the same lineup as 1 of the other 2 (Buescher, Jones, Kahne, Kesolowski, Larson, McMurray) , but the third contestant in the tie had a different lineup (A. Dillon, T. Dillon, Jones, Kesolowski, Larson, McMurray).

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